Ok, so I am doing my research today and will post later. If you read the general betting thread, I've had a bit of decent form and am spending quite a bit of time on golf bets... some players during COVID times have dropped off a cliff (McIlroy) and definitely younger players are not as intimidated with less crowds (Morikawa, US PGA in particular).
Sky Bet is paying 1/5 odds for the TOP 11. I will take a look at other offers and post up also by the end of today.
Early thoughts - Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Tyrell Hatton all finished this weekend strongly and Bryson DeChambeau played a practise round at August over the weekend and had nothing longer than an EIGHT IRON in to any hole. He MIGHT brutalise the course and particulary the par 5s.
Anyway, thoughts to come and good luck all!
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Comments
Think his game will suit.
That's Where my money's going.
DJ is in a seriously good run of form, but I just don't fancy him at Majors. He'll no doubt prove that wrong at some point soon though.
As much as Bryson is fascinating, I really hope he doesn't manage to completely overpower it and run away with it.
DJ to win it I reckon
So, outside of the general research of The Masters and Augusta, it has to be said that three golfers this weekend improved their expected fortunes before Augusta : -
Dustin Johnson. Finishing second this weekend he looked very, very good. A number of putts shaved the hole and he sank some outrageously good long putts. He is the world number one again and with the par 5s key to scoring on, he just looks very, very solid.
Tyrell Hatton. Having won at Wentworth a few weeks ago, he jumped immediately on a plane and has contented in each of the next 3 events in the US. Each time he had one sketchy round which cost him higher placing, however he has placed in each event and yesterday he had a fabulous finishing round and I think he is in the best form of his life.
Brooks Koepka. Two great rounds this weekend – two 65s and he looks to have overcome his injury problems. He used a new driver on Thursday and Friday and decided to switch back to his old driver for the weekend and reaped the rewards. Back to form – is there a better golfer in recent majors’ history?
Bryson DeChambeau. I must consider him. His weekend practice round at Augusta was remarkable. Nothing more than an 8 iron into any par 4….. that is frightening. If his driving is on, he’s going to go low at some point.
I am not particularly leaning towards any other Europeans right now. Their form has been too patchy. Justin Rose has shown some signs of returning to a little bit of form, Tommy Fleetwood got into positions during the UK swing to win only to fall away in the 4th round each time. Two stick out. John Rahm. Fighting with DJ and Justin Thomas for World Number 1 he has been very solid without taking any tournament by the scruff of the neck and spanking the field. And Ian Poulter. Despite concerns of a niggly back injury (he missed this weekend’s event to rest it) he has been very impressive in both the US and Europe over the last couple of months. I also think there is no better putter or short game player in the world consistently and he’s added length to his game. He also owes Augusta one as he threw away his chances at the infamous par 3 a few years back…..
THINGS TO CONSIDER
Despite it being Autumn, the weather looks good. 27 – 28 degrees. Recent form in previous years has been an indicator with players sharpening their game to be peaking first week of April, whereas this year it is coming to the end of what would be a season, but we are into a new season already and this will be new to all. All but Adam Scott in previous years had a recent top 20 finish for nearly every year of the last 20 years. Regular winners from the top 29 in the world, are not in the top 29 in the betting rankings. Nobody outside the top 70 of the PGA field of distance to Apex ratings since 2009 (https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02406.html)
Rookies are traditionally not good to back (outside of Jordan Spieth winning), however I think somebody like Matt Wolff is better than your usual Rookie. He has hit the ground running as a PGA pro and could be the next superstar.
Greens In Regulation is usually a good indicator from current form as well (previous 10 weeks tracker), with only Patrick Reed being outside the top 10 recent greens in regulation stats for recent wins – including Woods (2nd), Willet (6th), Garcia (2nd) . The current tracker (outside of the Houston Open) for the last 8 weeks we have : -
1) Bubba Watson
2) John Rahm
3) Tony Finau
4) Sung Jae Im
5) Erik Van Rooyen and Zack Johnson
6) Dustin Johnson
7) Lee Westwood
8) Matt Wallace
Par 4 birdie or better is also a very good indicator (https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.113.html)
CONCLUSIONS
Taking all of this into consideration and what I have said regarding form horses, my choices come from
Bryson DeChambeau
Matt Wolff (DESPITE BEING A ROOKIE THIS YEAR)
Brooks Koepka
Tyrell Hatton
Ian Poulter
Bubba Watson
Dustin Johnson
John Rahm
EW “stats say” but I just don’t know if they can win
Tony Finau
Lee Westwood
I think Westwood will be solid and if his odds are long enough, 1/5th top 11 with Sky Bet could just be giving money, but he can’t and won’t win however he could be a very solid returning ew bet. Tony Finau – I just can’t back him – always avoid him – in my opinion, he just won’t get the job done and again though if his odds are long enough and you can get 1/5th top 11 with Sky Bet (he is currently 25/1 or 30/1 with the HOTSHOTS* promotion) it could well just be giving you some returns on your money. His stats show he is a very good golfer, he just doesn’t win. An acceptable price at 1/5th top 11 at 25/1 could be some value, but I think I am going to say no and kick myself is he does place as it will be like a 5/2 win…..
I would think there is more chance of Finau placing than McIlroy and at much better price, but there is more chance of McIlroy winning than Finau. If you get my drift.
· NOTE SKY BET ARE RUNNING THEIR “HOTSHOTS” OFFER – WHICH IS IF YOU OPT IN AND BET £5+ ON A GOLFER, YOU GET £1 FOR EACH BIRDIE THAT GOLFER GETS IN THE FIRST ROUND OF THE MASTERS. THEIR ODDS ARE ALSO IMPROVED ON THE HOTSHOTS PRICE LIST. I am not sponsored by Sky Bet, by the way – I usually use Paddy Power :-)
Reed looked good last month when he was over here & you can never look past Dustin Johnson or Woods. DeChambeau may be able to blast it 330 yards off the tee but playing Augusta you have to be cute on the greens & if you miss on the wrong side you are looking at bogeys galore.
Only golfer from the top group I’m struggling to build a case against is Rahm. 11/1 with nine places e/w at William Hill.
Other prices that are interesting to me:
Matsuyama 28/1 8 places at Betfred
Simpson 33/1 10 places at Paddy/Betfair
Scheffler 60/1 8 places at Betfred/Bet365
Fitzpatrick 66/1 8 places at Betfred/Bet365
Munoz 150/1 11 places at Sky
Hun-An 225/1 8 places at Bet365 / 200/1 11 places at Sky
With less than 100 golfers and a handful of amateurs/retired ex-winners, I don’t fancy following all seven of them but will do a bit more reading on the above players before I cement a final four/five.
Have backed Cantlay so far.
uk & ireland
europe
rest of world
america
£20 buy in pot is around 4k minus 150 for 2nd 100 for 3rd and 50 for 4th and 5th
my picks are
hatton
molinari
matuyama
reed
my bets are
fowler ew - 55/1 - just always back him
wallace ew - 150/1
hatton ew - 22/1
cantlay ew - 18/1
all 11 places 1/5 odds with skybet
I have gone for the following:
Bryan Dechambeau 8/1 Hotshots £10 outright, Hotshots you get £1 every birdie on the first round
Patrik Reed 28/1 , £5 first round leader, personally i think it will favour a long hitter just a punt really looks reasonable price
Tony Finau, £2.50 ew 30/1 first round leader, course should suit him and usually starts majors quite well (no facts), used to bet him EW alot before he was more fancied and did ok
For now, always have half an eye on in play market if i feel someone is due to hit form and good value.
£2.50 ew on rose outright @ 55
£2 ew on Schneideker @ 125
50p ew on Nate Lashley @ 500 - I simply just choose one long odds where i didnt really know much, looked him up looks reasonable. yep a punt but its £1 stake
WENTWORTH (BMW PGA - Flagship European Tour Event) WON
CJ CUP 3RD (straight off the plane after BMW)
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP 28th (3rd week in a row of playing golf and straight from UK to US the week before)
HOUSTON (after a week's break) 7th
Most in form European golfer in the world, who's been in the US for three weeks now to acclimatise and is NOW NUMBER NINE IN THE WORLD.....
And you can't see it... oh well.... don't say I didn't say he has a chance....
So Mickelson, Schwartzel, Glover, Leishman, Walker, Weir, Olazabel, Mize all to miss the cut is 37/1.
Finau & Kokrak for first round leader.
Bryson to beat Xander and DJ in separate forecasts.
Sounds like a lot of rain is coming tomorrow so there may be some delays.