When in doubt, resort to Maths.
Not the most taxing analysis, I confess, but here are some interesting First Half/Second Half numbers that may be telling us something:
In the 21 League games played to date (after the Rochdale game - ten at home, eleven away), our First Half record is ... P21 W4 D9 L8 F14 A17 Pts21
Second Half record ... P21 W9 D6 L6 F19 A11 Pts33.
Now ... I'm not sure what we can conclude from this, but I'll take a punt. I would welcome other interpretations.
My take ... generally Bowyer gets it wrong at the start. We only lead at half-time about 20% of the time, whereas we trail almost 40% of the time. We are a relegation side in the First Half.
Things improve after the interval (and, presumably after some substitutions). With this form (33 points in 21 Second Halves) we can look forward to a Play-Off spot (just about).
What does this tell us? Maybe Bowyer is a reactive manager? Maybe our better players cannot be risked from the start? I did find it amusing, I must confess, that our defeat at Hull City was attributed to the fact that they didn't play Wilkes on the wing, like we expected.
The most significant point, in my mind at least, is that good teams ... promotion teams ... impose themselves on the opposition. They boss they game, they get in front, and then see the game out. It's rare to win the League by repeatedly coming back from a deficit.
I'll leave it there ... but ... Lee ... if you want my advice ... pick a starting line-up that has a chance of dictating play. Pick your best players. Forget about 'managing' their physical frailties. Get 1-0 up ... get 2-0 up ... and then bring on your workhorses to preserve the win.
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Comments
So, just looking at the stats since the play off final we need to go all out in the first half & score the first goal. If we do that we will win far far more than we lose. Let in the first goal & we are very lucky to get a point. Stats don't tell you everything but by golly over the past 67 games they don't half tell you something.
Stating the obvious but the longer we are in a game the much more chance we have of winning it or at least getting a draw.
I think the last 11 have been 5 draws 4 defeats and 2 wins. Keeping 1 clean sheet.
That's not good enough. In those 11 games we have let in at least 2 on 7 occasions, including 4 twice. To Dale and Burton. After the MK Don's game it should have been back to basics and clean sheets.
It's the 5 draws that have killed us recently because we should have won at least 3 of them if it wasn't for questionable team selections, tactics and subs.
There are loads of potential reasons behind this. For example, we’ve been balancing an unfit squad so have weighted our team selections to see us stronger for the final third of a game, other teams raise their game for a fast start against us that can’t be sustained, other teams are more physically imposing than us so we come into our strength once the game stretches out etc.. If you wanted to put out a really supportive angle you could say that from a stat perspective Bowyer is tactically astute in making changes intra game that yield positive results, and that the squad togetherness is there to not accept defeat.
MK Dons are even more pronounced than us. Is their manager similarly getting it wrong?
All that really matters is where things stand at the final whistle. I’d actually rather those tables be that way round than the other way.
Constant tinkering with the side, negative tactics inviting crap teams on to equalise late and square pegs in round holes.
An average manager would have Doubled that points tally with this squad. As I said last year before Xmas about us going down, the fan base need to wake up and smell the coffee. A managerial change, however sad, is needed.
2. Lee Bowyer is the best Manager in the division, as he able to react to negative positions with tactically astute positional and personnel changes.
In short, these stats tell you what you want to be told.
(It doesn't mean they're not interesting though).
Indeed, if you look at just our home games we were 6th for 1st half and 24th for 2nd half
But my son reckons the last match we came back to win from a losing position was the playoff final in 2019, can't be right surely?
Of course, it's the score at the end of the game that counts ... but the more you can do to engineer the right result, the better.
Our poor First Half showing (and, yes, I do think that MK Dons have similar problems) means that Bowyer has to make improvements or repair the damage on a regular basis. It reminds me of Sol Campbell in his playing days ... very good at rectifying a bad situation which his own error had previously created.
Much better to avoid the problems in the first place. That is how successful teams operate.
The figures I suspect are even worse if we are losing at half time - Wembley we managed to equalise before half time.
It's true we turned around the Wimbledon match from a losing position at half time - but as a pp said, we went 1-0 up in that game.
That season we also came from a goal down to beat; Burton (A) | Plymouth (H) | Wycombe (H)
But those first two games we were trailing 1-0 @ HT
Been 71 League games since that Luton one
More pressing to me is the frequency with which we go behind in the first place. And while injuries to the first choice defence do bear some responsibility, so too do some tactical choices.