Last night (just concerning the top 4 English divisions) Brentford won after going 1-0 down
On Tuesday though, Sheffield United, Wolves, Palace and Forest all did it
On Saturday there were 29 games across the EFL. 9 draws. Of the other 20 games the team that scored 1st won in 18 of them. Of the 2 games one of them was a 92nd minute winner.
And that is the point. We might be witnessing teams coming back more from going 1-0 without crowds but, when the average number of goals in a game being under 3, the odds are that, in most instances, the team that does score first does not lose.
So we might not have won when going 1-0 down but we have drawn 11 times - as opposed to drawing 7 times when we have gone 1-0 up. Of the 8 games we lost when going in front, 5 were in the Championship and 2 were in the cups when we would have put out reserve sides. The only game we've lost in League 1 when in front is Peterborough.
We're actually less fragile this season compared to last in terms of throwing away leads. - 3 thrown away this season compared to 11 last season. - A lead has turned into a draw on just 1 occasion this season and 5 last season. - A lead has turned into a loss on 2 occasions this season and 6 last season. - This season we have scored first on 13 occasions and won. Last season we took the lead 12 times and won. - This season we have conceded first 9 times and lost. Last season was 18 times. - We have so far pulled back a point on 6 occasions this season, it was just 5 all of last season. - We've had scoreless results on 4 occasions, 1 this season, 3 last season.
If thay shows anything it shows we just have to score first. Start the match with our strongest 11 & try to score the first goal. No need for changing formations, diamonds, players playing on the "wrong" wing or any other jazz. Just bloody shoot more & score first.
Didn't Curbs once say if you scored first, then in about 80% of games you wont lose. Never bothered to work it out but I am sure some game guru told him that.
Didn't Curbs once say if you scored first, then in about 80% of games you wont lose. Never bothered to work it out but I am sure some game guru told him that.
what about own goals first? Maybe Amos should just chuck the ball into his own net at the start of each game and then we may have a better chance of wining?
Can @Dazzler21 make that table for every team in the league please? Oh, and can @golfaddick please tell us how many players in The Open win after losing the first hole?
Can @Dazzler21 make that table for every team in the league please? Oh, and can @golfaddick please tell us how many players in The Open win after losing the first hole?
How can you lose the first hole? You are not playing your partner you are just trying to get round in the least shots as possible.
Can @Dazzler21 make that table for every team in the league please? Oh, and can @golfaddick please tell us how many players in The Open win after losing the first hole?
You don't lose holes in the Open.....its your score to par that counts. You lose holes in match play golf & there are not many matchplay events sadly. Just the Ryder Cup & Amateur comps. They even got rid of the match play event at Wentworth usually held in September. Grrrr
Can @Dazzler21 make that table for every team in the league please? Oh, and can @golfaddick please tell us how many players in The Open win after losing the first hole?
I've got quite enough tables I am juggling thanks!
Didn't Curbs once say if you scored first, then in about 80% of games you wont lose. Never bothered to work it out but I am sure some game guru told him that.
We've Scored first 40 times in the past season and a half, of that we've lost 8 (20%)
(Without cups SF36 L6 = 83%)
So Curbs is spot on. If we score first we lose 1 in 5. If we score first we draw about 1 in 5 too So winning 3/5 or about 60% of the games we score first in.
Didn't Curbs once say if you scored first, then in about 80% of games you wont lose. Never bothered to work it out but I am sure some game guru told him that.
We've Scored first 40 times in the past season and a half, of that we've lost 8 (20%)
(Without cups SF36 L6 = 83%)
So Curbs is spot on. If we score first we lose 1 in 5. If we score first we draw about 1 in 5 too So winning 3/5 or about 60% of the games we score first in.
If you take out Brentford and possibly a few others from last season (because they were considerably better than us so the 1st goal would have less effect) it would make the 80% about Bob on.
Comments
How are you counting a game against Phoenix Sports?!
We're actually less fragile this season compared to last in terms of throwing away leads.
- 3 thrown away this season compared to 11 last season.
- A lead has turned into a draw on just 1 occasion this season and 5 last season.
- A lead has turned into a loss on 2 occasions this season and 6 last season.
- This season we have scored first on 13 occasions and won. Last season we took the lead 12 times and won.
- This season we have conceded first 9 times and lost. Last season was 18 times.
- We have so far pulled back a point on 6 occasions this season, it was just 5 all of last season.
- We've had scoreless results on 4 occasions, 1 this season, 3 last season.
(Without Cups & 0-0 Draws it's Played 70, CFW 0, CFD 10, CFL 24, SFW 23 , SFD 7, SFL 6)
We still have almost half a season to go, so it will be interesting how this changes.
If thay shows anything it shows we just have to score first. Start the match with our strongest 11 & try to score the first goal. No need for changing formations, diamonds, players playing on the "wrong" wing or any other jazz. Just bloody shoot more & score first.
Make me manager & I'll get you promotion.
The original tweet said all competitions so I had to include it.
I then re ran the numbers without 0-0 draws and cup games.
Maybe Amos should just chuck the ball into his own net at the start of each game and then we may have a better chance of wining?
50% of games with a 50% chance of going behind. Nothing wrong in that Dicky. Very worrying to go 38 games without winning after going behind.
(Without cups SF36 L6 = 83%)
So Curbs is spot on.
If we score first we lose 1 in 5.
If we score first we draw about 1 in 5 too
So winning 3/5 or about 60% of the games we score first in.
The jinx is broken, Wemberlee here we come!!!