"LONDON (Reuters) - Paul Clement became the sixth Premier League manager sacked this season when bottom club Swansea City ended his one-year tenure on Wednesday but any upswing in results the Swans enjoy will be largely down to luck, according to a leading analyst.
The so-called “new manager bounce” often accompanies a club parting ways with a manager and hiring a new one as demonstrated this month with West Ham United’s resurgence under David Moyes after he replaced Slaven Bilic.
But research by the 21st Club suggests the phenomenon is over-rated.
“We have done a lot of research on this. Football is an unusual sport and is quite low scoring. That means a team can play well and lose or play poorly and win,” Omar Chaudhuri, head of football intelligence at the London-based sports consultants, told Reuters.
“What we see is that when managers are sacked, a lot of the times their teams have been playing okay, but without luck. It only needs one crucial moment per game to go against you and that is the difference between three points and one or one point and no points. In most cases sacked managers are unlucky.
“It’s like calling tails five times in a row in a coin toss and losing each one. The next person calls tails and wins. It’s the same with a football manager.”
Chaudhuri says 75 percent of the managerial bounce is down to luck with the other 25 percent to do with fixtures, players returning from injury and a lift in spirits in dressing room.
He says clubs who stick with a manager through a bad match often find that the bounce effect occurs without any change in the man at the top.
“The best example is Juergen Klopp in his final season at Dortmund,” Chaudhuri said.
“They were bottom in February but because he had a special relationship with the club they did not sack him. In the second half of the season Dortmund were the second-best team in Germany according to results, and yet the performances were roughly the same. The key thing was their luck changed.”
According to statistics compiled by the 21st Club for Europe’s five biggest leagues, clubs earned 0.8 points per game in the eight games prior to a managerial sacking, compared to 1.2 points in the subsequent eight.
Yet match statistics, in terms of quality and quantity of chances created and conceded, were virtually identical.
The new manager bounce has certainly had a big impact this season with Crystal Palace, Leicester City and Everton, like West Ham, all enjoying an upturn in results since appointing Roy Hodgson, Claude Puel and Sam Allardyce respectively."
Is it a myth, or does it help, if so how many games does it last for?
By my reckoning given the amount of managers we’ve got through in the last 10 years, we should have won the champions league at least twice!!
I used to make a point of placing a bet on any side who had just appointed a new manager to win their next game. I wouldn't quite say it's a myth, but it's certainly over-exaggerated. Big Sam, the master of instant impact, lost his first game in charge of West Brom 3-0 at home to Villa, that was the last one I backed.
Looking at Charlton:
Jacko won his first game Bowyer won his first 3 Nobinson took a month to win his first game Nugent won his only game 5-1 Slade lost his first game Riga lost 6-0 at Hull (on my birthday!) Fraeye lost Luzon lost 5-0 to Watford (he was in charge, despite what the liar told us) Bob Peeters drew away and had a good run after that Riga drew Chris Powell won 4 on the spin Parky had a disastrous start Pardew drew at home to Fulham but should have won, and then beat Villa Curbs beat Birmingham in his first game as sole manager
Inconclusive, I would say. I think a lot has to do with timing. Solskjaer had the perfect run of fixtures when he took over at United. Things could have been very different if they'd had a run against top 6 sides.
Comments
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-england-managers/new-manager-bounce-its-all-down-to-lady-luck-idUKKBN1EF1NM
"LONDON (Reuters) - Paul Clement became the sixth Premier League manager sacked this season when bottom club Swansea City ended his one-year tenure on Wednesday but any upswing in results the Swans enjoy will be largely down to luck, according to a leading analyst.
The so-called “new manager bounce” often accompanies a club parting ways with a manager and hiring a new one as demonstrated this month with West Ham United’s resurgence under David Moyes after he replaced Slaven Bilic.
But research by the 21st Club suggests the phenomenon is over-rated.
“We have done a lot of research on this. Football is an unusual sport and is quite low scoring. That means a team can play well and lose or play poorly and win,” Omar Chaudhuri, head of football intelligence at the London-based sports consultants, told Reuters.
“What we see is that when managers are sacked, a lot of the times their teams have been playing okay, but without luck. It only needs one crucial moment per game to go against you and that is the difference between three points and one or one point and no points. In most cases sacked managers are unlucky.
“It’s like calling tails five times in a row in a coin toss and losing each one. The next person calls tails and wins. It’s the same with a football manager.”
Chaudhuri says 75 percent of the managerial bounce is down to luck with the other 25 percent to do with fixtures, players returning from injury and a lift in spirits in dressing room.
He says clubs who stick with a manager through a bad match often find that the bounce effect occurs without any change in the man at the top.
“The best example is Juergen Klopp in his final season at Dortmund,” Chaudhuri said.
“They were bottom in February but because he had a special relationship with the club they did not sack him. In the second half of the season Dortmund were the second-best team in Germany according to results, and yet the performances were roughly the same. The key thing was their luck changed.”
According to statistics compiled by the 21st Club for Europe’s five biggest leagues, clubs earned 0.8 points per game in the eight games prior to a managerial sacking, compared to 1.2 points in the subsequent eight.
Yet match statistics, in terms of quality and quantity of chances created and conceded, were virtually identical.
The new manager bounce has certainly had a big impact this season with Crystal Palace, Leicester City and Everton, like West Ham, all enjoying an upturn in results since appointing Roy Hodgson, Claude Puel and Sam Allardyce respectively."
Looking at Charlton:
Jacko won his first game
Bowyer won his first 3
Nobinson took a month to win his first game
Nugent won his only game 5-1
Slade lost his first game
Riga lost 6-0 at Hull (on my birthday!)
Fraeye lost
Luzon lost 5-0 to Watford (he was in charge, despite what the liar told us)
Bob Peeters drew away and had a good run after that
Riga drew
Chris Powell won 4 on the spin
Parky had a disastrous start
Pardew drew at home to Fulham but should have won, and then beat Villa
Curbs beat Birmingham in his first game as sole manager
Inconclusive, I would say. I think a lot has to do with timing. Solskjaer had the perfect run of fixtures when he took over at United. Things could have been very different if they'd had a run against top 6 sides.