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Conceding late in the first half - a regular occurence under Jacko...

CallumcafcCallumcafc
edited February 2022 in General Charlton
Off the back of the latest statbank posted by LL @lancashire lad I noticed we are conceding more goals in the 15 minutes leading up to half time than at any other period in matches this season. Here's a graph for the entire season (Adkins & Jacko):






Even more interesting stat related to the goals conceded 31-HT... Seven of the twelve (58%) league goals conceded under Jacko have come in that time band. Switching off before half time is perhaps a previously undiagnosed problem? Graph below for Jacko only:



(Side observation... dominating second halves with 14 scored and 3 conceded is great to see)




Brief review of each of the seven goals conceded 31-HT:

AFC Wimbledon (H) : 1 (set piece, free header)
Cheltenham (A) : 1 (goalkeeper spilled shot)
Crewe (A) : 2 (goalkeeper spilled shot + set piece, barely contested header)
Wycombe (H) : 1 (bad defensive shape lets them in behind)
Plymouth (A) : 1 (goalkeeper saved shot and scored on rebound)
Rotherham (H) : 1 (cross into box not dealt with properly)

By no means is it realistic to stop all of these (we are in League One after all) but most of these goals were avoidable - you would've liked to have seen at least four or five more kept out.

Comments

  • guinnessaddickguinnessaddick
    When did they stop the water breaks?
  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    guinnessaddick said:
    When did they stop the water breaks?

    Not sure on that. Think it may have only been the first few weeks of the season when the temperature was above a certain level? Certainly a good theory.
  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    Maybe we need someone to fake an injury in the 31st minute so the squad can get to the sideline and Jacko can get them to re-focus. :-)
  • cafcsingercafcsinger
    Interesting stat, tempted to just put it down to chance. Interesting to see what its like at the end of the season, a slightly better sample size. 
  • ElliotCAFCElliotCAFC
    Interesting stat but it’s too small a sample size to start drawing conclusions. I’d be interested to see if this carries on over the next few games, as you’d expect the better teams to punish us more frequently.
  • golfaddickgolfaddick
    Perhaps Jacko is giving them something more than a cup of tea at half time & their minds start wandering at the prospect.
  • Dave RuddDave Rudd
    Haven't plotted these yet, but it would be interesting to see how we compare to the 'norm'.

    League One - Goal time statistics (soccerstats.com)

    You have to be very careful interpreting data of this type.  For example, and simply based on the pink or green shading in the table in the link, I could conclude that, if you list all 24 League 1 teams in alphabetical order, the first 12 are generally outscored in the First Half and the second 12 generally score more than they concede in the Second Half.

    On that basis, AFC Wimbledon should change their name to 'Wimbledon'.
  • Hal1xHal1x
    If you plotted the actual goal times would it look a similar pattern to the quarter hour segments, ie the goals could be scored in the 32nd minute.
  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    edited February 2022
    Hal1x said:
    If you plotted the actual goal times would it look a similar pattern to the quarter hour segments, ie the goals could be scored in the 32nd minute.

    Twelve goals against under Jackson. In date order, they were scored in the following minutes:

    45+2 (v Rotherham)
    29 (v Morecambe)
    72 (v Morecambe)
    90+3 (v Shrewsbury)
    45+2 (v Plymouth)
    35 (v Wycombe)
    38 (v Crewe)
    45+3 (v Crewe)
    43 (v Cheltenham)
    79 (v Portsmouth)
    3 (v Wimbledon)
    36 (v Wimbledon)
  • CAFCTrevCAFCTrev

    Conceding - a regular occurence under Jacko...

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  • soapboxsamsoapboxsam
    edited February 2022
    The important stat is since Johnnie Jackson picked the team at Sunderland:

    Won 9 lost 4 drawn 3. 
    30 points from 15 games.

    That would be top 6 after 15 games but obviously we won't make the top 6 because:

    Won 2 Lost 8 drawn 3. After 14 games and in 22nd place.

    How long did we keep conceding in the 43rd to 45th minute under Lee Bowyer ? It really is nothing new. My mate and I knew it was nearly time for Coffee.  


  • ForeverAddicktedForeverAddickted
    stoneroses19 said:
    CAFCTrev said:

    Conceding - a regular occurence under Jacko...

    Since JJ took over - Sunderland game - we have the second best defence in the league. 
    That belongs in Football Facts that dont sound true
  • SageSage
    Callumcafc said:
    Hal1x said:
    If you plotted the actual goal times would it look a similar pattern to the quarter hour segments, ie the goals could be scored in the 32nd minute.

    Twelve goals against under Jackson. In date order, they were scored in the following minutes:

    45+2 (v Rotherham)
    29 (v Morecambe)
    72 (v Morecambe)
    90+3 (v Shrewsbury)
    45+2 (v Plymouth)
    35 (v Wycombe)
    38 (v Crewe)
    45+3 (v Crewe)
    43 (v Cheltenham)
    79 (v Portsmouth)
    3 (v Wimbledon)
    36 (v Wimbledon)
    The ones in bold are the really disappointing ones. 5 of the 14 conceded (including tonight) at really bad times. There is of course never a good time to concede but these are a concern and worth keeping an eye on.

    That means anything between 35-40% of goals conceded happen in around 15% of the match. This is from 40 minutes until half time and 85 minutes until full time, both including stoppage time.

    If you take out those goals (silly in theory as every team concedes around that time during a season) but we would have gained an extra 5 points.

    What is interesting is that we have only conceded 2 goals relatively early, both in the last two games, but shocking goals to give away. You then have a spell of between 29 minutes and half time where 8 have been conceded (57%). You don’t then see us conceding again until 72 minutes which seems an outlier as we have conceded 3 beyond 79 minutes (21%). It means that nearly 80% of goals conceded under Jackson happen at times where most people would deem it to be more crucial. This isn’t a criticism of him, but it is interesting and could become concerning. Basically, we seem okay until we have played around 30 minutes in each half. What happens in the last 15 minutes or so in each half where we concede around 70% of our goals?

    Let’s see how the rest of the season pans out. If this does become a trend, there is something that needs looking at. As an example, fitness, recklessness, hunger to keep the ball out your own net, and concentration will all be put into question. 
  • SageSage
    Additionally, we have conceded more goals between 31-HT and 76-FT (19 goals) than Rotherham have all season (18 goals). Meaning we have conceded more in 33% of the time of our games than they have in 100% of theirs.
  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    edited February 2022
    Callumcafc said:
    Maybe we need someone to fake an injury in the 31st minute so the squad can get to the sideline and Jacko can get them to re-focus. :-)

  • Mendonca In AsdasMendonca In Asdas
    Surely our analytics department are all over this, and have made this known to Jacko if he wasn’t already aware of it?
  • LincsaddickLincsaddick
    as is conceding in the second half
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