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Theoretically how close is TS to his magical "break even" goal this season?
Manic_mania
Posts: 2,258
Bare with me on this; assuming no take over actually happens - things that can't be 100% budgeted for at the start of a new season that have not been a factor in previous seasons;
Pope sell on fee
World cup fees (Gunter and Williams)
Quarter final league cup run (not just Man U away although obviously that's the bulk of it - but would have had the big crowd V Brighton as well not budgeted for if we went out first round like usual)
Assuming the annual loss figure is around the 6 million mark often quoted - and the fact that we have paid no transfer fees to my knowledge at all this year as compared to previous seasons. Obviously there is the inflation with bills to account for too but... its got to be pretty close right? even if it's just a flash in the pan one season deal?
Not even saying it is a factor in anything relating to a future take over, or saying it is because its anything to do with how TS has ran us this season, just a discussion point.
I'd say arguably a smart businessman would look at what has brought us closest to break even in I don't know how long, has nothing to do with cut backs in staff or player/youth team budget if you look at it properly and is in fact the opposite - objectively the opposite.
pope sell on fee - investing in youth
world cup fees - investing in international standard (eehh... ish) players
QF league cup - valuing the cups as a revenue generator so ensuring you have the players and that they are available in the "lower" rounds to give yourself the best opportunity to catch a "big fish" like we did this year.
That's not even including how much higher the possibility of all of these benefits could be multiplied if we were a championship team.
I'm just a lowly support analyst, but how can I see it, but a "successful businessman" can't at this point?? Surely TS has the ability to look at his P and L for December and January which have to look pretty damn good relatively compared to the rest of his tenure and put two and two together???
Pope sell on fee
World cup fees (Gunter and Williams)
Quarter final league cup run (not just Man U away although obviously that's the bulk of it - but would have had the big crowd V Brighton as well not budgeted for if we went out first round like usual)
Assuming the annual loss figure is around the 6 million mark often quoted - and the fact that we have paid no transfer fees to my knowledge at all this year as compared to previous seasons. Obviously there is the inflation with bills to account for too but... its got to be pretty close right? even if it's just a flash in the pan one season deal?
Not even saying it is a factor in anything relating to a future take over, or saying it is because its anything to do with how TS has ran us this season, just a discussion point.
I'd say arguably a smart businessman would look at what has brought us closest to break even in I don't know how long, has nothing to do with cut backs in staff or player/youth team budget if you look at it properly and is in fact the opposite - objectively the opposite.
pope sell on fee - investing in youth
world cup fees - investing in international standard (eehh... ish) players
QF league cup - valuing the cups as a revenue generator so ensuring you have the players and that they are available in the "lower" rounds to give yourself the best opportunity to catch a "big fish" like we did this year.
That's not even including how much higher the possibility of all of these benefits could be multiplied if we were a championship team.
I'm just a lowly support analyst, but how can I see it, but a "successful businessman" can't at this point?? Surely TS has the ability to look at his P and L for December and January which have to look pretty damn good relatively compared to the rest of his tenure and put two and two together???
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Millions off still I would guess.1
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So if we assume you are correct at a £6m season loss...
Pope went for 10 mill I think, so 20 p.c. is 2 mill...
I think WC fees may come to hundred grand a player, so that's x 2.
Cup run would have garnered very little from first three rounds, and maybe 20k from the home Brighton game. Old Trafford is estimated at around half a million.
Even if my numbers are wrong, overall we are still a long way from breaking even...0 -
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Seems a f******g hard way to go about buying anything and breaking even!
There must be easier ways?0 -
While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.3
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Pedro45 said:So if we assume you are correct at a £6m season loss...
Pope went for 10 mill I think, so 20 p.c. is 2 mill...
I think WC fees may come to hundred grand a player, so that's x 2.
Cup run would have garnered very little from first three rounds, and maybe 20k from the home Brighton game. Old Trafford is estimated at around half a million.
Even if my numbers are wrong, overall we are still a long way from breaking even...
im not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me? Do you think sacking staff will get us to break even or what I said?
key words "how close"
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Explains the focus on cup runs
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my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.0 -
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.0 - Sponsored links:
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We could still sell players before June 30th and it would count as 22/23.Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.1 -
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?
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In L1 you will lose 10m a year on average.In the champ it’s 8m.So it’s all about getting to the promised land.0
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Varney put on Twitter today that currently the teams without parachute payments get 5m in some sort of Premier League support system. That’s set to double next season.Valiantphil said:In L1 you will lose 10m a year on average.In the champ it’s 8m.So it’s all about getting to the promised land.
Unless players decide to take a slice of the pie or more club’s gamble on promotion then then that 8m loss becomes 3.0 -
World cup fees (Gunter and Williams)
Can someone tell me how we get money for ex-]players, or are they still on our books?2 -
Previous seasons we have sold, amongst others, KAG, Bonne, Philips and Burstow and still lost more than that.Manic_mania said:
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?
In 18/19 we lost just over 10 (from memory) despite the play offs, worth more than our cup run, selling KAG and spending next to nothing.
Didn't Thomas say we lost 8ish last season? We also paid compensation, twice, to and for Garner. Was the spending on the training ground this year or last year?0 -
FIFA pay a fee for players appearing in the world cup to any club that has had a player on their books during the world cup cycle. Which this time was the start of the 20/21 season.dicktracey said:World cup fees (Gunter and Williams)
Can someone tell me how we get money for ex-]players, or are they still on our books?2 -
Not close at all. Even with the three "windfalls" you mention, we will probably no more than halved the anticipated loss. Cutting more admin staff will have minimal impact on the figures. Selling players is the only way to break even this year, if that is a necessary requirement.Manic_mania said:Pedro45 said:So if we assume you are correct at a £6m season loss...
Pope went for 10 mill I think, so 20 p.c. is 2 mill...
I think WC fees may come to hundred grand a player, so that's x 2.
Cup run would have garnered very little from first three rounds, and maybe 20k from the home Brighton game. Old Trafford is estimated at around half a million.
Even if my numbers are wrong, overall we are still a long way from breaking even...
im not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me? Do you think sacking staff will get us to break even or what I said?
key words "how close"0 -
I'm not resurfacing to defend his incredible claims, but IIRC he was reported as saying this season was about halving the scale of last season's losses, with beak even he believed achievable sometime next.0
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You stated out saying it was a hypothetical question, now you want answers based on certainty and precision.Manic_mania said:
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?
The consensus, which I agree with, is that the club will record a significant loss this year. If you would like to believe it will break even regardless of the weight of opinion that is entirely up to you.
All that being said, even if we were to break even in this season, Sandgaard will still be (tens of) millions in the hole from the losses incurred in previous years.0 - Sponsored links:
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What are you talking about? I said how close? Everyone seems to think not very. What do you mean I'm asking for precision and certainty? Who's posts are you reading??se9addick said:
You stated out saying it was a hypothetical question, now you want answers based on certainty and precision.Manic_mania said:
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?
The consensus, which I agree with, is that the club will record a significant loss this year. If you would like to believe it will break even regardless of the weight of opinion that is entirely up to you.
All that being said, even if we were to break even in this season, Sandgaard will still be (tens of) millions in the hole from the losses incurred in previous years.0 -
Presumably the spend on the training ground is capital so will be spread over multiple years in the accounts, like transfer fees paid but more so.Cafc43v3r said:
Previous seasons we have sold, amongst others, KAG, Bonne, Philips and Burstow and still lost more than that.Manic_mania said:
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?
In 18/19 we lost just over 10 (from memory) despite the play offs, worth more than our cup run, selling KAG and spending next to nothing.
Didn't Thomas say we lost 8ish last season? We also paid compensation, twice, to and for Garner. Was the spending on the training ground this year or last year?0 -
Why does the club lose so much more money than others in the league? Is it just because of player salaries?0
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We've also had sales in Sandgaard's previous two seasons. When he first come in we sold Phillips, Bonne and then Doughty. Last season we sold Burstow. So the Pope income isn't particularly significant. Attendances have reduced so the Utd money covers that. 200k for Williams and Gunter playing in the WC doesn't really help too much.Manic_mania said:
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?0 -
Is a lot of the "facilities" rented? If it is it would go in the year the money is spent wouldn't it?Airman Brown said:
Presumably the spend on the training ground is capital so will be spread over multiple years in the accounts, like transfer fees paid but more so.Cafc43v3r said:
Previous seasons we have sold, amongst others, KAG, Bonne, Philips and Burstow and still lost more than that.Manic_mania said:
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?
In 18/19 we lost just over 10 (from memory) despite the play offs, worth more than our cup run, selling KAG and spending next to nothing.
Didn't Thomas say we lost 8ish last season? We also paid compensation, twice, to and for Garner. Was the spending on the training ground this year or last year?
I don't know the answer to either TBH.0 -
Thought the Pope sell on fee was double what we got for Burstow. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong though.cafcfan1990 said:
We've also had sales in Sandgaard's previous two seasons. When he first come in we sold Phillips, Bonne and then Doughty. Last season we sold Burstow. So the Pope income isn't particularly significant. Attendances have reduced so the Utd money covers that. 200k for Williams and Gunter playing in the WC doesn't really help too much.Manic_mania said:
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?0 -
We also had pretty significant transfer spends in those seasons unlike this year.cafcfan1990 said:
We've also had sales in Sandgaard's previous two seasons. When he first come in we sold Phillips, Bonne and then Doughty. Last season we sold Burstow. So the Pope income isn't particularly significant. Attendances have reduced so the Utd money covers that. 200k for Williams and Gunter playing in the WC doesn't really help too much.Manic_mania said:
so we lose 6 million a year regardless?Cafc43v3r said:
My guess would be that we will lose between 5 and 6 million quid this season, if we don't buy or sell anyone in the next two weeks.Manic_mania said:
my point - or well question? was - there is no way the club is losing 6 million this season based on my OP? I'm not making any other statement about what that means for us in terms of a take overAirman Brown said:While I’m sure player trading is within Sandgaard’s meaning, the underlying health of the business is about recurring operations, and that’s miles off.Ultimately, Man United has probably offset a decline in matchday revenue from league games, rather than being a big net gain.
Doesn't matter if we play man U away in a QF, have a bonus 200K from the world cup - a 20% profit sell on fee on a ten million sale - it's just a strict 6 million loss like every other year?0 -
“Break even” means regular running costs are covered by regular income. Player Transfer revenue and purchases are capital transactions and excluded from any break even analysis. No investor would look at player sales covering trading losses as evidence of the business breaking even.
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CafcSCP said:
But that's exactly what will happen. How do I know that? Because that's what always happens.
Varney put on Twitter today that currently the teams without parachute payments get 5m in some sort of Premier League support system. That’s set to double next season.Valiantphil said:In L1 you will lose 10m a year on average.In the champ it’s 8m.So it’s all about getting to the promised land.
Unless players decide to take a slice of the pie or more club’s gamble on promotion then then that 8m loss becomes 3.
If a club gets more money it will generally just spunk it on transfer fees and players wages. It's the way it is at football clubs and we, the fans (collectively), demand it. You only have to look at the comments calling TS "tight" to see that, as the bloke chucks millions of his own dosh down the khazi. The whole football business model is deeply flawed and has been for years.
Even reaching the "promised land" of the Prem doesn't mean a club will make money. They will likely just spunk it on more expensive players and salaries. Unless they decide to do a Blackpool, of course.
Players salaries (and transfer fees) are THE biggest cost for football clubs (aside from those developing stadiums, eg Spurs). Any "normal" business spending more than 100% of it's revenue on salaries would be fucked, but somehow football clubs survive lurching from one owner to the next.2 -
Although this would normally be the case I don't think it's right in this case. Surely it's wrong to include all the costs of the academy but none of the income, whether it be transfer fees or loan fees. If you just followed that logic you could soon be convince yourself shutting the academy is a no brainer. Chelsea run their academy as a profit maker. If it regularly produces an income source you would be wrong to exclude it.Dippenhall said:“Break even” means regular running costs are covered by regular income. Player Transfer revenue and purchases are capital transactions and excluded from any break even analysis. No investor would look at player sales covering trading losses as evidence of the business breaking even.1
