[cite]Posted By: ltgtr[/cite]next weeks mpc will raise rates 50bp imho...if they dont, i reckon interest rates are heading for 7pct before they have an effect...
[cite]Posted By: ltgtr[/cite]next weeks mpc will raise rates 50bp imho...if they dont, i reckon interest rates are heading for 7pct before they have an effect...
err, they ruled no change today and don't meet for another month !!
As for the other points, can't really speculate but think you are wrong on both.
Rates will go up by 0.25% to 6% by October and no more.
This time next year they will be on the way down again and by mid of 2009 will be around 5%....mark my words.
anyone fixing their mortgage above 6% past 2008 are mugs........take a tracker now at base minus 0.25% and be quids in next year.
reasons......
1)over the next 6 months thousands of borrowers are coming out of 2yr fixed rates secured in 2005 at around 4% and will have to pay much more now on their loans.....leaving less in the ecomony to spend on other items.
2) inflation will then start to fall and will be around the governments 2% by early next year.
3) the recent rate increases still havn't fully filtered through the economy - when they do point 2 will take effect.
4) Hips come into play over the next few months.........this will deter people selling and slow the housing market down.
5) general election before the end of 2009 (maybe even next year)........
Hips rollout is quite slow and staggered as far as I'm aware? not sure what is to stop people declaring 3rd bedroom is a study to avoid the 3 bed phase out.
General election is likely next spring, according to some.
[cite]Posted By: golfaddick[/cite]Rates will go up by 0.25% to 6% by October and no more.
This time next year they will be on the way down again and by mid of 2009 will be around 5%....mark my words.
anyone fixing their mortgage above 6% past 2008 are mugs........take a tracker now at base minus 0.25% and be quids in next year.
reasons......
1)over the next 6 months thousands of borrowers are coming out of 2yr fixed rates secured in 2005 at around 4% and will have to pay much more now on their loans.....leaving less in the ecomony to spend on other items.
2) inflation will then start to fall and will be around the governments 2% by early next year.
3) the recent rate increases still havn't fully filtered through the economy - when they do point 2 will take effect.
4) Hips come into play over the next few months.........this will deter people selling and slow the housing market down.
5) general election before the end of 2009 (maybe even next year)........
You have to worry that even if rates go up to 6% that the huge amount of buy to let owners will start seeing a negative yield when comparing income from rent versus expenditure on their mortgage payments - a large percentage may have to jump and this IMO will precipitate a housing market crash. In some ways this will be a good thing for those who are only interested in buying a single property as house prices will level out at the very least.
It isn't HIPS that's going to force the market recorrection.
Repossesions are up 30% without the interest rate rise kicking in for those fixed term mortgages, banks will tighten their lending (no more 5 times salary), suddenly houses will no longer be affordable.
There is nothing stopping anyone declaring a 4 bed house - 3 beds and designating an additional reception room. When this was pointed out to the government a spokesman said that no one would do this as it would reduce the value of their house - naive or what.
I think there will be further legislation clarifying this but for now carry on.
Also I understand the fine for not complying is less than the cost of producing the packs so unless the buyer insists.
The next thing is the energy efficiency survey which will have to be included.
Can't see many people taking much notice of the packs even if produced, what a waste of money!
Comments
Should I sell my house, buy gold and ride it out?
err, they ruled no change today and don't meet for another month !!
As for the other points, can't really speculate but think you are wrong on both.
This time next year they will be on the way down again and by mid of 2009 will be around 5%....mark my words.
anyone fixing their mortgage above 6% past 2008 are mugs........take a tracker now at base minus 0.25% and be quids in next year.
reasons......
1)over the next 6 months thousands of borrowers are coming out of 2yr fixed rates secured in 2005 at around 4% and will have to pay much more now on their loans.....leaving less in the ecomony to spend on other items.
2) inflation will then start to fall and will be around the governments 2% by early next year.
3) the recent rate increases still havn't fully filtered through the economy - when they do point 2 will take effect.
4) Hips come into play over the next few months.........this will deter people selling and slow the housing market down.
5) general election before the end of 2009 (maybe even next year)........
General election is likely next spring, according to some.
You have to worry that even if rates go up to 6% that the huge amount of buy to let owners will start seeing a negative yield when comparing income from rent versus expenditure on their mortgage payments - a large percentage may have to jump and this IMO will precipitate a housing market crash. In some ways this will be a good thing for those who are only interested in buying a single property as house prices will level out at the very least.
Repossesions are up 30% without the interest rate rise kicking in for those fixed term mortgages, banks will tighten their lending (no more 5 times salary), suddenly houses will no longer be affordable.
Exactly what's happened in the USA.
I think there will be further legislation clarifying this but for now carry on.
Also I understand the fine for not complying is less than the cost of producing the packs so unless the buyer insists.
The next thing is the energy efficiency survey which will have to be included.
Can't see many people taking much notice of the packs even if produced, what a waste of money!