As someone else said we need to assess the squad and the opposition after 10 games. Still a couple of strikers short if you discount Aneke.
Obvious threats are Derby, Barnsley, Blackpool, Bolton and Pompey. Posh, Oxford and Wyconbe will be in and around it I should imagine. Still a tough league tbh but far weaker than !last season.
Presently I fancy us for the top 6 and have backed us accordingly. I'm 99% certain we'll be top half and have backed us accordingly. I think we have a less than 50% chance of promotion and have backed that as well. If we continue to strengthen and I'm confident we will, it should look even better.
Need to continue with the amount of goals scored as per last season but defensively we conceded far too many and I’m not sure we have done enough so far to rectify that if we want to push for a minimum of a top 6 finish
Plus players that can play 35 or more league starts to get that consistency needed.
Last season as shown below showed that up
Dobson - 44
Fraser - 41
Rak-Sakyi - 40
Inniss - 36
Clare - 34
Sessegnon - 27
Maynard-Brewer - 26
Morgan - 24
Stockley - 20
Blackett-Taylor - 19
I have been going on about this for a few seasons now but there is a caveat which hasn't applied to us before. Maybe it still doesn't but those numbers mean less when you are head and shoulders above your opponents. I think there is a possibility we could be. I am certainly not in my usual panic mode at this stage.
Need to continue with the amount of goals scored as per last season but defensively we conceded far too many and I’m not sure we have done enough so far to rectify that if we want to push for a minimum of a top 6 finish
Plus players that can play 35 or more league starts to get that consistency needed.
Last season as shown below showed that up
Dobson - 44
Fraser - 41
Rak-Sakyi - 40
Inniss - 36
Clare - 34
Sessegnon - 27
Maynard-Brewer - 26
Morgan - 24
Stockley - 20
Blackett-Taylor - 19
Interesting point. These are the stats for our new signings:
Isted – 19
Jones – 36
May – 39
Camara – 1
Edun – 8
Taylor - 26
Obviously, there are various reasons why some of those players didn't make many league starts.
Gonna be a tough season with some decent clubs all with aspirations of promotion. We have chance though and play offs really should be the minimum we aspire to. Feeling a lot more positive this season than the last few.
Maybe, can I call a rain check and confirm December?
Give it 15 games then start talking. Do any of us REALLY know the abilities of the players coming in? Having said that it is good to see we are recruiting in advance of the season. PS, It'll all end in tears. Sorry.
Maybe, can I call a rain check and confirm December?
Give it 15 games then start talking. Do any of us REALLY know the abilities of the players coming in? Having said that it is good to see we are recruiting in advance of the season. PS, It'll all end in tears. Sorry.
It will for you as you're going to miss our promotion charge
Maybe, can I call a rain check and confirm December?
Give it 15 games then start talking. Do any of us REALLY know the abilities of the players coming in? Having said that it is good to see we are recruiting in advance of the season. PS, It'll all end in tears. Sorry.
It will for you as you're going to miss our promotion charge
There’s still work to do. I still have a niggling doubt that we’re getting a little bit carried away with some of the individual preseason performances - such as Asiimwe, Deji and Anderson. I’m confident in midfield, but we still need a couple of defenders and a couple of attacking players.
I just don’t want us falling into the trap of having a strong 14/15 core with the absence of 3/4 decent back ups. Hopefully our injury record will pick up but we’ve still got to cover the possibility we get unlucky.
I'd be more optimistic if we had built on previous seasons of being top six. This has not been the case, so I'll side with @oohaahmortimer we have been in this division for too many years and the Curbs years are a distant memory.
Personally I think there’s a big spoonful of “wooooah there” needed.
We finished 10th last season and our four best players were arguably JRS, Dobson, Leaburn and Sess.
JRS will be a massive loss. We won’t replace with better. Leaburn will miss the start and there’s a question mark on potential injury fragility. We don’t know if Egun will be better than Sess, or Egbo more durable than Clare, or Jones a more tamed thug than Innis, whose aerial threat we’ll lose.
Theres a massive squad imbalance at present with centre of midfield over loaded, they can’t all play. There’s a question mark in my mind over both goalkeepers. May is a good signing but if he injures in coming weeks we are right up the swanny. Are we going to play 1 or 2 up front? Is May really suited to being a lone line leader?
I’m confident we’ll have a better season to last year but until we’ve an idea what our starting team and formation is, and you can look at it and say, ‘ok if x gets injured can we easily adapt without noticeably weakening?’ If gonna hold fire on expectations.
Ten games has always been seen as the measuring barometer and that’s even more pertinent now with transfer windows not closing until a few weeks into the season.
I think Bolton and Derby will be way too strong for us. We've made good signings but I think the squad still needs work. We have some very talented wingers but they aren't great at defending so if we persist with a 3-5-2 it'll be interesting to see how involved they are. I still think even top 6 is a stretch for us but with how weak the league is, you never know
These seem like good signings and they seem like the manager's signings too which is vital but many were excited by the signing of Kirk and many were also underwhelmed by the signing of Dobson
We haven't played a competitive game yet, we're not the only team to have strengthened (Bolton and Pompey in particular seem to have invested heavily) and there are seven new teams in the division (yes, Wigan and Reading look in trouble) who are unknown factors.
And the transfer window hasn't closed yet for both incoming and outgoing signings.
I can see three or four players leaving as well as, I hope, another striker and a right back coming in.
Derek Ufton always said you can tell after ten games where a team is going to finish.
Aside from the team, I also think it is too early to judge the new ownership.
This is what I wrote on 17 July
"I fully expect some money to be spent. The new owners will want to make a splash. May's deal was being delayed until the takeover but Leaburn's injury made it a priority. Other good players will come in and fans, me included, will be more optimistic about what could happen on the pitch. A few signings cheers everyone up, even Golfie for a few minutes.
If we didn't have some small piece of hope somewhere in our hearts that this year, this ownership, would be the one to turn things around we couldn't be football fans. Even the most vocally negative fans (you know who you are) hope for better.
Some will say "All I care about is what happens on the pitch" which is understandable but what happens in the board room impacts directly onto playing performance so we can't separate the two. We need stable and forward looking management at Sparrows Lane and at the Valley for the club to progress. Can this new consortium offer that for not just one year but for seasons and seasons, some of which will not bring glory but will mean the owners putting another £8m plus into the club every 12 months?"
I'm not sure we've done enough to our defence for this to be our year yet. We're changing shape completely and setting ourselves up to not be able to effectively change it back until January if it's not working. We had absolutely no problems scoring last season but conceded a ridiculous number of goals. Playing an extra CB and beefing up our midfield with Camara and Taylor should hopefully help but we're putting a lot of faith in Hector, Ness and Jones and then really hoping they stay fit for 46 games each. We're also relying on Egbo at RWB who was injured for almost all of last season and could have lost the momentum he picked up at Swindon, and Asiimwe who is very raw. I'd be more comfortable if we brought in another proper first team CB to challenge the other three and a RWB to play ahead of Egbo as well as a first team striker to compete with May and Leaburn. Plenty of time left in the window and plenty of loan spots left so that could still happen but I'm still a bit nervous about the backline.
About the ability to change shape from 352 - in CBT and Campbell we have quality wing options to switch to a threatening plan B, eh!
In-game yes, absolutely. But what about if we can't pull off the 352 and decide we need to abandon the shape completely 5 games in? CBT and Campbell, both of whom prefer to play on the left, are an option as wingers, but CBT is injury-prone and Campbell is young. At the moment we have Kirk, who has never impressed on the wing, DJ who surely will be going but isn't anywhere near good enough and Payne, who is a 10 really. There's a huge difference between being able to change the shape here and there and having a squad to play a certain way for months at a time. I'd be happy enough with CBT and Campbell there but if one gets injured or loses form there's no-one else to take their place and we're a bit stuck until we can recruit more wingers in January. That's where the risk lies
Looking at the odds and some of the teams with lower odds than us of going up, Derby have brought in Washington, Blackpool Morgan and Barnsley can't put a team out!!!!
I'm always optimistic at the start of every season, like most fans are, I imagine we will be promoted by Christmas. New owners, 6 new signings so far, new management team, get off to a good start and we will piss this league. Reality normally kicks in about the same time as the weather cooling down, about mid October. Until then its our year.
There's a bit of work to be done with our squad to go - we need another striker and one or two players need to be shifted on.
League One doesn't look as strong as it was last year and two of the teams that were relegated from the Championship, Wigan and Reading, have been in financial bother. Wigan have just lost Jack Whatmough and Jamie McGrath who have left the club on frees, destination as yet unknown. Reading are having trouble paying some tax bills and have yet another transfer embargo imposed on them. Barnsley couldn't afford to compete with us over Harry Isted and are lacking money. Peterborough are selling off some players like Jonson Clarke-Harris while they still have some value. That leaves Derby, Bolton, Pompey as clubs who look well organised and who have recruited well. There's always a wild card in L1 - in the sense of I never saw them being contenders - add Charlton into the mix and you have a top six.
There's a bit of work to be done with our squad to go - we need another striker and one or two players need to be shifted on.
League One doesn't look as strong as it was last year and two of the teams that were relegated from the Championship, Wigan and Reading, have been in financial bother. Wigan have just lost Jack Whatmough and Jamie McGrath who have left the club on frees, destination as yet unknown. Reading are having trouble paying some tax bills and have yet another transfer embargo imposed on them. Barnsley couldn't afford to compete with us over Harry Isted and are lacking money. Peterborough are selling off some players like Jonson Clarke-Harris while they still have some value. That leaves Derby, Bolton, Pompey as clubs who look well organised and who have recruited well. There's always a wild card in L1 - in the sense of I never saw them being contenders - add Charlton into the mix and you have a top six.
Pompey have brought in a lot of players who we wouldn't be too excited about if we got them.
Get another striker in, get a bit luckier with injuries than we have been, and I reckon top 6. I think that midfield, whilst overstocked, is going to be devastating. I think May, Leaburn and one of similar quality will be enough. The wingbacks will ship some goals, but that’s the price you pay, and they're decent enough, and I have no real issues with the keepers. I have a concern that beyond our first choice CB's Jones, Hector and Ness, I don’t rate the back-ups that highly: Thomas was a better LB last year, Mitchell and Deji are too green for me, without the 2 months of excellence that Ness showed. I'm predicting us to finish 4th. Done.
Must sign another decent striker before the season starts
we can’t afford to be 5 games in and 8/9 points off the pace
start well and I think we’ll have great momentum and a great season
The pace for promotion is surely two points per game so to be 8-9 off it after five would mean we’d have to have a real shocker of a start.
We definitely do need a striker in, but if it takes a couple of weeks to get the right one, I’m ok with that.
For example it took us a few weeks last year for Rak-Sakyi to arrive. And over the whole season, we were far better for waiting on him than jumping at the first option just because they were available in July.
Must sign another decent striker before the season starts
we can’t afford to be 5 games in and 8/9 points off the pace
start well and I think we’ll have great momentum and a great season
The pace for promotion is surely two points per game so to be 8-9 off it after five would mean we’d have to have a real shocker of a start.
We definitely do need a striker in, but if it takes a couple of weeks to get the right one, I’m ok with that.
For example it took us a few weeks last year for Rak-Sakyi to arrive. And over the whole season, we were far better for waiting on him than jumping at the first option just because they were available in July.
Comments
Obvious threats are Derby, Barnsley, Blackpool, Bolton and Pompey. Posh, Oxford and Wyconbe will be in and around it I should imagine. Still a tough league tbh but far weaker than !last season.
I'm 99% certain we'll be top half and have backed us accordingly.
I think we have a less than 50% chance of promotion and have backed that as well.
If we continue to strengthen and I'm confident we will, it should look even better.
Do any of us REALLY know the abilities of the players coming in? Having said that it is good to see we are recruiting in advance of the season.
PS, It'll all end in tears. Sorry.
I'm over for Exeter away and Barnsley at home.
This has not been the case, so I'll side with @oohaahmortimer we have been in this division for too many years and the Curbs years are a distant memory.
We finished 10th last season and our four best players were arguably JRS, Dobson, Leaburn and Sess.
JRS will be a massive loss. We won’t replace with better. Leaburn will miss the start and there’s a question mark on potential injury fragility. We don’t know if Egun will be better than Sess, or Egbo more durable than Clare, or Jones a more tamed thug than Innis, whose aerial threat we’ll lose.
Theres a massive squad imbalance at present with centre of midfield over loaded, they can’t all play. There’s a question mark in my mind over both goalkeepers. May is a good signing but if he injures in coming weeks we are right up the swanny. Are we going to play 1 or 2 up front? Is May really suited to being a lone line leader?
I’m confident we’ll have a better season to last year but until we’ve an idea what our starting team and formation is, and you can look at it and say, ‘ok if x gets injured can we easily adapt without noticeably weakening?’ If gonna hold fire on expectations.
We have some very talented wingers but they aren't great at defending so if we persist with a 3-5-2 it'll be interesting to see how involved they are.
I still think even top 6 is a stretch for us but with how weak the league is, you never know
These seem like good signings and they seem like the manager's signings too which is vital but many were excited by the signing of Kirk and many were also underwhelmed by the signing of Dobson
We haven't played a competitive game yet, we're not the only team to have strengthened (Bolton and Pompey in particular seem to have invested heavily) and there are seven new teams in the division (yes, Wigan and Reading look in trouble) who are unknown factors.
And the transfer window hasn't closed yet for both incoming and outgoing signings.
I can see three or four players leaving as well as, I hope, another striker and a right back coming in.
Derek Ufton always said you can tell after ten games where a team is going to finish.
Aside from the team, I also think it is too early to judge the new ownership.
This is what I wrote on 17 July
"I fully expect some money to be spent. The new owners will want to make a splash. May's deal was being delayed until the takeover but Leaburn's injury made it a priority. Other good players will come in and fans, me included, will be more optimistic about what could happen on the pitch. A few signings cheers everyone up, even Golfie for a few minutes.
If we didn't have some small piece of hope somewhere in our hearts that this year, this ownership, would be the one to turn things around we couldn't be football fans. Even the most vocally negative fans (you know who you are) hope for better.
Some will say "All I care about is what happens on the pitch" which is understandable but what happens in the board room impacts directly onto playing performance so we can't separate the two. We need stable and forward looking management at Sparrows Lane and at the Valley for the club to progress. Can this new consortium offer that for not just one year but for seasons and seasons, some of which will not bring glory but will mean the owners putting another £8m plus into the club every 12 months?"
I stand by that.
Reality normally kicks in about the same time as the weather cooling down, about mid October. Until then its our year.
League One doesn't look as strong as it was last year and two of the teams that were relegated from the Championship, Wigan and Reading, have been in financial bother. Wigan have just lost Jack Whatmough and Jamie McGrath who have left the club on frees, destination as yet unknown. Reading are having trouble paying some tax bills and have yet another transfer embargo imposed on them. Barnsley couldn't afford to compete with us over Harry Isted and are lacking money. Peterborough are selling off some players like Jonson Clarke-Harris while they still have some value. That leaves Derby, Bolton, Pompey as clubs who look well organised and who have recruited well. There's always a wild card in L1 - in the sense of I never saw them being contenders - add Charlton into the mix and you have a top six.
The new sky agreement with the efl kicks in in 2024/25. That will be worth 46% more to Championship clubs than this coming season.
So if we go up, the new deal will be worth even more to us as we will only receive league 1 funding this year from sky.