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POST-MATCH THREAD: Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers: Saturday 28th October 2023 | KO 3:00 PM
Comments
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Up North on a cold Tuesday night , what do you think.Indianaaddick said:Be interesting to see if we snap out of it against Wigan midweek.
Said I would be happy with 6 points from Lincoln, Bolton , Wigan and Portsmouth but thought we would get less.0 -
We’ll probably get six less at this rate!Lewis Coaches said:
Up North on a cold Tuesday night , what do you think.Indianaaddick said:Be interesting to see if we snap out of it against Wigan midweek.
Said I would be happy with 6 points from Lincoln, Bolton , Wigan and Portsmouth but thought we would get less.1 -
Thanks, wasn’t aware of this. In which case, time for our recruitment team to sort it out!charltonbob said:
This has probably been answered already but he isn't good enough to play Serie A Football that's why he is with us in the third division & the fact that he isn't even in our matchday squad tells you all you need to know, just another youngster nowhere near good enough. He played two games for Udinese at the end of the season when the result didn't really matter just to give him a bit of game time & I think he was subbed in one. One for the future maybe though not with us.Pavoren007 said:Down to Appleton today more than the players. Formation, style and selection neither good nor brave enough. Bolton taught us a lesson and Evatt outclassed and outthought Appleton at every turn.This isn’t about a poor day at the office, that gap in points to the play offs is getting bigger and we will struggle to catch up unless we go on a WINNING streak - home and away. This is simply not good enough this last week.Hector bench, Thomas rest, Fraser bench, Campbell protect and bench to name but four.If Abankwah is good enough to play Serie A football, why is he being overlooked here? We need to change it up and go 4-4-2 imho. We have nothing to lose if we want to get out of this shit league.
Edit, I wouldn't worry too much about the gap to the play offs, we will never get there with this squad.0 -
Those people thinking that we can sell Miles Leaburn to plug gaps in the squad need to remember there is an even bigger one in the annual finances which will need to be filled.4
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What the actual?SELR_addicks said:
We were thrashed, and shown up, and at times cringingly embarrassing.
Two games in a row now where Appleton hasn't read the room well enough to pick a team and formation to cope.
Behind the sofa on Tuesday.0 -
Bolton were my early season favourites to go up, but even so, today I would've expected a lot more from us and I'll go early, and say Appleton is another false dawn. Not good enough.3
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I also find the valuation fans will put on his head slightly optimistic. If he goes, he’s going for a similar fee to Burstow imo. I recall a number of negotiation experts laying into TS over how much we sold Burstow for. All of a sudden we had a lot of experts telling us that if they were owner, Burstow wouldn’t have gone for less than 5m or whatever. It will be the same with Leaburn. He’s a potential talent, and a young English player so will come at a premium, but if people want to start attaching 5m + I think they need to recalibrate their opinionAirman Brown said:Those people thinking that we can sell Miles Leaburn to plug gaps in the squad need to remember there is an even bigger one in the annual finances which will need to be filled.0 -
I hope Bolton get promoted this season. I don't particularly like them, but I don't want to have to play them next year.3
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No idea what xG means but I make him right. We have a significantly better squad than the past few seasons and were over run for most of first half today by a better side. It happens. Second half much better. Would be nice to have a settled team and formation and think MA is on the right tracks.SELR_addicks said:2 -
That’s outcome bias. Just because a shot goes on target or results in a goal doesn’t increase it’s xG value.golfaddick said:
I really can't see how our XG was better than theirs. We didn't get into many decent chance taking situations & their keeper only made 1 or 2 saves. Whereas AMB made 3 or 4 saves & they scored twice.LargeAddick said:
So if our xG is better than the opposition in every game we finish top and go up right even if we actually lose the games?. xG, load of old bollocks.SELR_addicks said:The best chance of the match, according to xG, was the one knocked back across the box for Camara who spooned it over and into the Covered End.The second best chance was the header Tyreece Campbell put wide. And the third best chance was the shot Alfie May blasted over the bar from Leaburn’s clever lay off.
None of Bolton’s shots, including the ones they scored from, were considered to be better goal scoring opportunities than those three created by us according to Opta’s stats.1 - Sponsored links:
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The three biggest chances of the match (for either side) using xG as a judge…
The two goals that were scored…
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Callumcafc said:The three biggest chances of the match (for either side) using xG as a judge…The two goals that were scored…
How are our 3 ahead of Bolton hitting it straight at AMB from six yards and fluffing a 1 on 1 second half?
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Agree with all of that except I believe it was Fraser who failed to track the scorer.RedChaser said:Better second half but the bar was very low. Some very inept performances first half which gave us a mountain to climb.
The midfield markedly improved with the introduction of Watson. Fraser Camara Dobson was totally unbalanced.
Defence all at sea for both goals failure to match up at a short corner T Watson slow to close down for the first then turns his back on shot!
Second goal neither Dobson but especially Jones failed to track scorer Charles who was more alert into the box.
If it hadn’t been for man of the match AMB it could have been a rout by half time.
Still plenty of football left but we have not done ourselves any favours catching the top six these last two games😞.
He didn't have the strength to run around the referee.1 -
But you go to our games so must have seen Abankwah has been awful when he played?Pavoren007 said:Down to Appleton today more than the players. Formation, style and selection neither good nor brave enough. Bolton taught us a lesson and Evatt outclassed and outthought Appleton at every turn.This isn’t about a poor day at the office, that gap in points to the play offs is getting bigger and we will struggle to catch up unless we go on a WINNING streak - home and away. This is simply not good enough this last week.Hector bench, Thomas rest, Fraser bench, Campbell protect and bench to name but four.If Abankwah is good enough to play Serie A football, why is he being overlooked here? We need to change it up and go 4-4-2 imho. We have nothing to lose if we want to get out of this shit league.0 -
Croydon said:Callumcafc said:The three biggest chances of the match (for either side) using xG as a judge…The two goals that were scored…
How are our 3 ahead of Bolton hitting it straight at AMB from six yards and fluffing a 1 on 1 second half?
You'll have to remind me of the specific moments because I'm blanking but it's possible you're thinking of moments where Charles was through on goal but overran the ball. And to get xG you actually have to have a shot. Players overrunning the ball and the goalkeeper claiming it at their feet isn't a shot so counts for 0 xG.Those sort of missed moments are why stats nerds are building even nerdier models to account for those situations like xT (expected threat) and VAEP (valuing actions by estimating probabilities)...
https://dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/vaep
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The thing is we weren't capable of lasting a minute without conceding.LargeAddick said:
Wasn't much more than 30 seconds, certainly nowhere near the minute most around me were screaming it was.JamesSeed said:How long was Terrell Thomas’ 30 seconds off the pitch after the injury? 60 seconds? More? And Bolton rubbed it in by keeping the ball right in front of him. Then scored.
getting on the tube now lol
I daresay Bolton may have been able to play the whole game with 10 men and not concede.
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Second half. Hector’s header hit a defender on the goal line, May’s open goal shot over the crossbar, endless blocked shots, lots of crosses, Campbell’s missed header from five feet out,,,fairly easy to see.golfaddick said:
I really can't see how our XG was better than theirs. We didn't get into many decent chance taking situations & their keeper only made 1 or 2 saves. Whereas AMB made 3 or 4 saves & they scored twice.LargeAddick said:
So if our xG is better than the opposition in every game we finish top and go up right even if we actually lose the games?. xG, load of old bollocks.SELR_addicks said:Goalkeepers make saves. None were worldies.0 -
Ah ok, thanks for explaining the logic.Callumcafc said:Croydon said:Callumcafc said:The three biggest chances of the match (for either side) using xG as a judge…The two goals that were scored…
How are our 3 ahead of Bolton hitting it straight at AMB from six yards and fluffing a 1 on 1 second half?
You'll have to remind me of the specific moments because I'm blanking but it's possible you're thinking of moments where Charles was through on goal but overran the ball. And to get xG you actually have to have a shot. Players overrunning the ball and the goalkeeper claiming it at their feet isn't a shot so counts for 0 xG.Those sort of missed moments are why stats nerds are building even nerdier models to account for those situations like xT (expected threat) and VAEP (valuing actions by estimating probabilities)...
https://dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/vaep
I can't remember who it was but when Bolton were 2-0 up in the first half, someone chipped in from just outside the box to a totally unmarked player who put it straight at AMB from no distance. I'd have thought that would have counted towards an expected goal but would need to see highlights back
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Then who decides this XG crap then ? Someone sitting in the stands who's never played the game ?Callumcafc said:
That’s outcome bias. Just because a shot goes on target or results in a goal doesn’t increase it’s xG value.golfaddick said:
I really can't see how our XG was better than theirs. We didn't get into many decent chance taking situations & their keeper only made 1 or 2 saves. Whereas AMB made 3 or 4 saves & they scored twice.LargeAddick said:
So if our xG is better than the opposition in every game we finish top and go up right even if we actually lose the games?. xG, load of old bollocks.SELR_addicks said:The best chance of the match, according to xG, was the one knocked back across the box for Camara who spooned it over and into the Covered End.The second best chance was the header Tyreece Campbell put wide. And the third best chance was the shot Alfie May blasted over the bar from Leaburn’s clever lay off.
None of Bolton’s shots, including the ones they scored from, were considered to be better goal scoring opportunities than those three created by us according to Opta’s stats.
From what you've said it just tells me that we have crap players who can't finish & Bolton will storm the league as they can seemingly win a game with harder chances than their opponents.
Actually, what my eyes told me, was that Bolton created far more & better chances than we did & if it wasn't for AMB they would have scored 4 or 5.
As I have mentioned before XG is flawed as it doesn't take into account who is having the chance. It will be a completely different outcome if Mendonca had a chance instead of Simon Church.
If Appleton is going by XG as his barometer of how a particular game went then the guy is a complete fool.10 -
golfaddick said:
Then who decides this XG crap then ? Someone sitting in the stands who's never played the game ?Callumcafc said:
That’s outcome bias. Just because a shot goes on target or results in a goal doesn’t increase it’s xG value.golfaddick said:
I really can't see how our XG was better than theirs. We didn't get into many decent chance taking situations & their keeper only made 1 or 2 saves. Whereas AMB made 3 or 4 saves & they scored twice.LargeAddick said:
So if our xG is better than the opposition in every game we finish top and go up right even if we actually lose the games?. xG, load of old bollocks.SELR_addicks said:The best chance of the match, according to xG, was the one knocked back across the box for Camara who spooned it over and into the Covered End.The second best chance was the header Tyreece Campbell put wide. And the third best chance was the shot Alfie May blasted over the bar from Leaburn’s clever lay off.
None of Bolton’s shots, including the ones they scored from, were considered to be better goal scoring opportunities than those three created by us according to Opta’s stats.
From what you've said it just tells me that we have crap players who can't finish & Bolton will storm the league as they can seemingly win a game with harder chances than their opponents.
Actually, what my eyes told me, was that Bolton created far more & better chances than we did & if it wasn't for AMB they would have scored 4 or 5.
As I have mentioned before XG is flawed as it doesn't take into account who is having the chance. It will be a completely different outcome if Mendonca had a chance instead of Simon Church.
If Appleton is going by XG as his barometer of how a particular game went then the guy is a complete fool.“Who decides xG?”
- Computer models based on hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of data points.
“We have crap players who can’t finish and Bolton will storm the league.”
- It didn’t go in our favour today. Over the season so far we have 22 goals from 19.9 xG & Bolton have 27 goals from 20.8 xG. We’re not crap, we’ve just had a couple of bad games in a row. And yes Bolton are very clinical.“Eyes told me Bolton created more and better chances”
- Without even referring to xG, both teams had 12 shots total and both teams had seven shots inside the penalty area. We had three times as many corners. All the numbers tell a different story: they stuck their chances away and we didn’t. That’s football.
“xG doesn’t take into account who’s shooting”
- As many times as you say this, I’ll keep replying the same way: it’s not meant to.
“If he’s using xG, Appleton is a fool”
- It’s one of many metrics that all football clubs in the 92 are using to build a picture of how good or bad their players are performing.9 - Sponsored links:
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Predictably depressing guff , another nothing season with flirts towards the play offs but 5 seasons on the spin in league one beckons as our nearest and dearest cruise in leagues above is painful to take , still we can all have a jostle off at a great day out at Wembley in the papas used Johnny competition0
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I am trying not to be too harsh and I share a lot of my thoughts on my video.
It doesn't matter who we have as a manager (to an extent) it's these (mostly) pants players. The last two games, who could you make a case for being part of a promotion worthy team? Alfie May only imo, maybe Jones.
Ash kept it from being a very embarrassing scoreline, they could have been 4/5 nil up first half. Whole back line bar Jones are useless, said it before we have collectively, the worst defensive options in this league and I am going to set that flag now.
Midfield useless, completely passed by again. I'll have to put my hands up and say I was wrong about Fraser, pony player. Flatters to deceive, no energy, no commitment. Get the impression he thinks he's better than what he is, similar to Hector (another pants player). Dobson back to back dreadful performances, that's no captain. Terrible body language at 2 nil down. Wouldn't mind if he was playing well still but he doesn't dictate the play what so ever. Louie Watson (who is the most talented centre mid at this club) is masking his poor performances.
Wingers both pants, Campbell less pants second half and our biggest threat with Leaburn. Final mention to Alfie May, for actually having the bollocks to question why his team aren't pressing out of possession and looking to the manager.
Completely dire performance. Bolton are a very good side though I have to say, a number of championship quality players and I'd say they should be playing in the league above, probably better than a handful of sides up there. They once again shown us a level we can only dream of atm, better than us in every position except up front, May wouldn't look out of place in that team.
So disappointed in Dobson and CBT, really rated how their seasons were going but did transfer rumours turn their heads or something? Such bang average performances.
Terrible day.
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https://youtu.be/-qwTHWA0ljA?si=KBrw-LMXZPU0FEDU
For those interested the vlog, some really entertaining interviews with the Bolton fans imo2 -
I thought we started the better side yesterday without being threatening. Bolton's first goal came out of the blue and their second soon after, well not being allowed to bring your defender back on after injury seems a tough rule, and we certainly got the rough end of it yesterday.
Thereafter it was always going to be difficult against a streetwise Bolton lineup and as the the cliche goes, whoever finishes above them will be going up automatically. We huffed and puffed second half and had we got that goal which I think we deserved, it would have been game on.
Whilst I don't feel the low level of despondency about this defeat as some, our wingers were certainly disappointing yesterday. CBT was snuffed out completely and Tupac had a poor game. I'd probably start Kirk next game and look for a bit of impact from one of CBT or Tupac off of the bench. We seemed to have really lacked those game changing subs over the past 2 games since we lost Chuks again.
So one of those defeats where you just have to say we were beaten by a far more accomplished side at both ends of the pitch, where it really counts. Whilst we are still, quite understandably, a work in progress.0 -
Bad. Yes Bolton are well a head of us on the pitch but with our recent upturn in form and performances would have expected a better showing, and, a "reaction" from Lincoln.
We reacted with an even worse defensive display, Tenai Watson berating the defence for not talking more says it all, Hector despite being our experienced pro doesn't have the Jason Pearce marshalling the defence part to his twilight years. But, hey, too good for league one.
Their first was exactly how you score against us, couple of quick passes around our area takes our defence out as they all just ball watch, Thomas not getting on sooner probably wouldn't have helped seeing as he never fully recovered from having to go off anyway.
The second, well, the (non)midfield played a big part in that. League one's best play maker Scott Fraser was doing Gilbey impressions at times, pointing one way while shuffling behind Bolton players marking himself. A slip unchallenged which lead to a Bolton break and another shot for AMB to deal with and general nothingness, but he did deliver some nice corners though so there was that at least.
We looked better second half once Watson was on and May had a proper strike partner to play around, but never truly threatened, the "just play it to feet/ behind" tactic to ruin Santos didn't work as he's actually a quality defender and not just a lump.
Appleton got it wrong again imo, TC and Asiimwe as second half subs, May dropping into the hole, Watson in midfield. For the last two games we've changed up this approach, two games we've lost.
With Chem Campbell we have a "different" option for the right to take on the Tedic role with Leaburn and Tedic free to alternate in the Aneke Start/sub role, but let's just drop him altogether for one of the weakest (physically and mentally) Charlton players in history Charlie Kirk and then not even use him.
Predicted a loss in the preview but with a better performance than Lincoln, was half right....
Special mention to AMB who for the second game running has kept the scoreline from being embarrassing. Don't think it's any coincidence that having a proper experienced keeper for competition has got him performing.2 -
Sat in the Directors’ box yesterday, the one thing I noticed was that Apples doesn’t say anything to the players whilst on the pitch. The only time he had any interaction was during a break of play in the first half, when May came over to basically say do you really expect me to play up front on my own.4
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In this case he does look a bit stupid though. Not for using it in general, but quoting it in this case just looks like he’s clutching at straws. xG isn’t really supposed to be used to look at one off games, as has been discussed it’s not a perfect enough metric for that. It’s useful for looking at trends as you have more data so that reduces the inaccuracy.Callumcafc said:golfaddick said:
Then who decides this XG crap then ? Someone sitting in the stands who's never played the game ?Callumcafc said:
That’s outcome bias. Just because a shot goes on target or results in a goal doesn’t increase it’s xG value.golfaddick said:
I really can't see how our XG was better than theirs. We didn't get into many decent chance taking situations & their keeper only made 1 or 2 saves. Whereas AMB made 3 or 4 saves & they scored twice.LargeAddick said:
So if our xG is better than the opposition in every game we finish top and go up right even if we actually lose the games?. xG, load of old bollocks.SELR_addicks said:The best chance of the match, according to xG, was the one knocked back across the box for Camara who spooned it over and into the Covered End.The second best chance was the header Tyreece Campbell put wide. And the third best chance was the shot Alfie May blasted over the bar from Leaburn’s clever lay off.
None of Bolton’s shots, including the ones they scored from, were considered to be better goal scoring opportunities than those three created by us according to Opta’s stats.
From what you've said it just tells me that we have crap players who can't finish & Bolton will storm the league as they can seemingly win a game with harder chances than their opponents.
Actually, what my eyes told me, was that Bolton created far more & better chances than we did & if it wasn't for AMB they would have scored 4 or 5.
As I have mentioned before XG is flawed as it doesn't take into account who is having the chance. It will be a completely different outcome if Mendonca had a chance instead of Simon Church.
If Appleton is going by XG as his barometer of how a particular game went then the guy is a complete fool.“Who decides xG?”
- Computer models based on hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of data points.
“We have crap players who can’t finish and Bolton will storm the league.”
- It didn’t go in our favour today. Over the season so far we have 22 goals from 19.9 xG & Bolton have 27 goals from 20.8 xG. We’re not crap, we’ve just had a couple of bad games in a row. And yes Bolton are very clinical.“Eyes told me Bolton created more and better chances”
- Without even referring to xG, both teams had 12 shots total and both teams had seven shots inside the penalty area. We had three times as many corners. All the numbers tell a different story: they stuck their chances away and we didn’t. That’s football.
“xG doesn’t take into account who’s shooting”
- As many times as you say this, I’ll keep replying the same way: it’s not meant to.
“If he’s using xG, Appleton is a fool”
- It’s one of many metrics that all football clubs in the 92 are using to build a picture of how good or bad their players are performing.The state of the game is also the main reason we had higher xG. Bolton were 2-0 up with early goals, inevitably we are then going to be on top as the home side in the second half with Bolton not wanting to risk going for a 3rd and conceding themselves. If it had been 0-0 at HT then it would have been a completely different story as Bolton would have still been pushing more for a goal themselves.1 -
Appleton got it wrong today, we’ve tried Fraser in the 2, we’ve tried May up top on his own and seen they don’t work. So why on earth did he decide to do both from the start? Fraser has loads of goals and assists at this level but we play him deep on the right of a midfield 2. What a waste of a good player
The only way to get Fraser in this team is to play 3-5-2. If Appleton doesn’t want to do that then he will have to stay on the bench1 -
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Good one , don’t need to sit there again that bar was annoying and took the video out of focus a little bit on at least a couple of match clips .Braziliance said:
For those interested the vlog, some really entertaining interviews with the Bolton fans imo
you don’t fancy Wigan , understandable
if you’re there at ht I think you should show the ht crossbar challenge , there’s some crackers .0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzP1NnxtU8o