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Euros 2024 - Turkey, Wales & Croatia

Does anybody understand how Turkey have supposed to have qualified from Group D of Euro 24 Qualifying?

Turkey 16 points - 1 game to play vs Wales - if Welsh win finish on same points - may have superior goal difference - may end up worse head to head

Wales 10 points - 2 games to play vs Armenia and Turkey - if Welsh win both and with a healthy GD they could leapfrog Turkey

Croatia 10 points - 2 games to play vs Latvia and Armenia - if Croatia win both, they already have a superior goal diff vs Turkey & Wales but have a better head to head vs Turkey, worse head to head vs Wales

If all three come out with 16 points, is it not possible that it will be Wales and Croatia who will qualify and Turkey will miss out based on the above analysis or am I missing something? Cheers and vested interest in being half Croatian btw, just cannot get an answer to this online…, while most sites have Turkey down as qualified!

Comments

  • edited November 2023
    UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying - Wikipedia

    So looks like the first tie breaker is based on the number of points obtained in matches played amongst the teams in Question.

    Turkey... 6-pts Wales (W1) | Croatia (W1 | L1)
    Wales... 4-pts Turkey (W0) | Croatia (W1 | D1)
    Croatia... 4-pts Wales (L1 | D1) | Turkey (W1 | L1)

    Wales are the only team left to face Turkey, so they can win the Group if they win their last two games

    However that'll only put them joint points with Turkey, meaning the second tie breaker comes into effect - Which is basically an Agg. scoreline from their two games... Turkey beat Wales 2-0 in the last game, so for Wales to win the Group they'll need to win by three goals.

    That took me bloody ages to work out though!!
  • I thought the thread title was announcing the new hosts.
  • CAFCTrev said:
    I thought the thread title was announcing the new hosts.
    I thought it was too actually
  • UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying - Wikipedia

    So looks like the first tie breaker is based on the number of points obtained in matches played amongst the teams in Question.

    Turkey... 6-pts Wales (W1) | Croatia (W1 | L1)
    Wales... 4-pts Turkey (W0) | Croatia (W1 | D1)
    Croatia... 4-pts Wales (L1 | D1) | Turkey (W1 | L1)

    Wales are the only team left to face Turkey, so they can win the Group if they win their last two games

    However that'll only put them joint points with Turkey, meaning the second tie breaker comes into effect - Which is basically an Agg. scoreline from their two games... Turkey beat Wales 2-0 in the last game, so for Wales to win the Group they'll need to win by three goals.

    That took me bloody ages to work out though!!
    Wow, bloody hell, thank you. That is a complicated system but now makes sense that it is in Wales’ hands. Turkey and Wales to qualify in that case, Croatia into the play offs.
  • UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying - Wikipedia

    So looks like the first tie breaker is based on the number of points obtained in matches played amongst the teams in Question.

    Turkey... 6-pts Wales (W1) | Croatia (W1 | L1)
    Wales... 4-pts Turkey (W0) | Croatia (W1 | D1)
    Croatia... 4-pts Wales (L1 | D1) | Turkey (W1 | L1)

    Wales are the only team left to face Turkey, so they can win the Group if they win their last two games

    However that'll only put them joint points with Turkey, meaning the second tie breaker comes into effect - Which is basically an Agg. scoreline from their two games... Turkey beat Wales 2-0 in the last game, so for Wales to win the Group they'll need to win by three goals.

    That took me bloody ages to work out though!!
    Wow, bloody hell, thank you. That is a complicated system but now makes sense that it is in Wales’ hands. Turkey and Wales to qualify in that case, Croatia into the play offs.
    Wales have the harder two games to play though compared to Croatia

    So wont be surprised if its the other way around
  • I’m still trying to work out how it’s better for Ireland to lose their match than win it?
  • edited November 2023
    se9addick said:
    I’m still trying to work out how it’s better for Ireland to lose their match than win it?
    The playoff teams are determined by Nations League finishes.

    Netherlands were 4th overall, Ireland 26th and Greece  34th.

    The playoff spots are filled down the long list, taking the first teams that failed to qualify via their qualifying group.

    If Ireland lose to the Netherlands, Netherlands qualify automatically, not needing the playoffs, and the list gets bumped down another spot closer to Ireland.

    If Ireland take points off the Netherlands, there’s a decent chance Netherlands land in the playoffs and so that additional place would no longer be up for grabs.
  • se9addick said:
    I’m still trying to work out how it’s better for Ireland to lose their match than win it?
    The playoff teams are determined by Nations League finishes.

    Netherlands were 4th overall, Ireland 26th and Greece  34th.

    The playoff spots are filled down the long list, taking the first teams that failed to qualify via their qualifying group.

    If Ireland lose to the Netherlands, Netherlands qualify automatically, not needing the playoffs, and the list gets bumped down another spot closer to Ireland.

    If Ireland take points off the Netherlands, there’s a decent chance Netherlands land in the playoffs and so that additional place would no longer be up for grabs.
    Jesus, my head hurts! Am surprised the Armenians held the Welsh, Tuning in to see if Croatia can do Latvia 🤷‍♂️
  • Acca destroyed.
  • edited November 2023
    se9addick said:
    I’m still trying to work out how it’s better for Ireland to lose their match than win it?
    The playoff teams are determined by Nations League finishes.

    Netherlands were 4th overall, Ireland 26th and Greece  34th.

    The playoff spots are filled down the long list, taking the first teams that failed to qualify via their qualifying group.

    If Ireland lose to the Netherlands, Netherlands qualify automatically, not needing the playoffs, and the list gets bumped down another spot closer to Ireland.

    If Ireland take points off the Netherlands, there’s a decent chance Netherlands land in the playoffs and so that additional place would no longer be up for grabs.
    Jesus, my head hurts! Am surprised the Armenians held the Welsh, Tuning in to see if Croatia can do Latvia 🤷‍♂️
    Think of it like the playoffs were decided before qualifying even started. 

    12 best teams from the Nations League have a playoff berth “reserved”. But as soon as one of those 12 teams qualify directly, the spot gets freed up for the 13th best team, another one of the 12 qualifies and the 14th best is now in the playoffs. And so on.

    If Netherlands qualify directly, they would no longer need their reserved playoff berth and Ireland are ahead of Greece on the imaginary waiting list.

    There are a couple of added complications on top of that but that’s how it works in it’s simplest form.
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