The result last night for Orient is very impressive and they do have good momentum. However, they’ve got so many of the teams fighting for something at the top end of the league to play that we can’t really judge how good they are and what’s likely to happen. Their next 3 is Bolton, Birmingham and us.
For me, if we just focus on ourselves and win the games we need to, especially our home games, then there will be change in the top 6 as so many have to play each other.
My only concern between now and the end of the season is our away form isn’t the best. We have it in us to pull out a stinker. With playing Orient, Stockport, Wrexham and Wycombe away from home in our last 15, we really need to make sure we don’t have another poor or under par performance away from home. Get 7 or 8 points from those 4 games and we will put ourselves in with a good chance of the play offs.
I've done some digging and we've only won a single game this season from being a goal behind. Bolton away last month. That to me is also a concern, as play-off games rarely go how you would like them to, in design!
But now we have attacking options available and show a clear ability to score late in the game, I hope we can add to that one win if we do fall behind in a game.
This has been an issue for us for a number of years.
However, it is definitely a concern we don’t turn games around in the way we want when we do go down 1-0.
We have scored and conceded the first goal on 14 occasions so far this season. When conceding first we’ve won 1, drew 4 and lost 9. When scoring first we’ve won 13, drew 1 and lost 0. The other 3 results have been 0-0.
The first goal is absolutely crucial.
On a side note, it would have been twice this season but for a moment of madness in the last minute at Barnsley.
Not news to me.......as most of you are probably aware 😃. As a pp said, it's not new either. Been going on for a number of seasons now.
Also, only once this season have we scored more than 2 goals in a match........and that was the 5-0 drubbing of Northampton. Once we have scored 2 we have not gone on to get 3 or 4 (apart from the Northampton game). Orient have scored more than 2 in a match 6 times.
Not surprising they have a better GD than us.
So when we go there we'd better hope we score first.
The result last night for Orient is very impressive and they do have good momentum. However, they’ve got so many of the teams fighting for something at the top end of the league to play that we can’t really judge how good they are and what’s likely to happen. Their next 3 is Bolton, Birmingham and us.
For me, if we just focus on ourselves and win the games we need to, especially our home games, then there will be change in the top 6 as so many have to play each other.
My only concern between now and the end of the season is our away form isn’t the best. We have it in us to pull out a stinker. With playing Orient, Stockport, Wrexham and Wycombe away from home in our last 15, we really need to make sure we don’t have another poor or under par performance away from home. Get 7 or 8 points from those 4 games and we will put ourselves in with a good chance of the play offs.
I've done some digging and we've only won a single game this season from being a goal behind. Bolton away last month. That to me is also a concern, as play-off games rarely go how you would like them to, in design!
But now we have attacking options available and show a clear ability to score late in the game, I hope we can add to that one win if we do fall behind in a game.
This has been an issue for us for a number of years.
However, it is definitely a concern we don’t turn games around in the way we want when we do go down 1-0.
We have scored and conceded the first goal on 14 occasions so far this season. When conceding first we’ve won 1, drew 4 and lost 9. When scoring first we’ve won 13, drew 1 and lost 0. The other 3 results have been 0-0.
The first goal is absolutely crucial.
On a side note, it would have been twice this season but for a moment of madness in the last minute at Barnsley.
Not news to me.......as most of you are probably aware 😃. As a pp said, it's not new either. Been going on for a number of seasons now.
Also, only once this season have we scored more than 2 goals in a match........and that was the 5-0 drubbing of Northampton. Once we have scored 2 we have not gone on to get 3 or 4 (apart from the Northampton game). Orient have scored more than 2 in a match 6 times.
Not surprising they have a better GD than us.
So when we go there we'd better hope we score first.
Scoring the first goal is pretty critical in football in general - so just happens that this season both Charlton and Orient are extreme cases.
Average PPG for teams that score first is 2.29 and average PPG for teams that concede first is 0.54. If you concede the first goal, you only win 12% of the time on average (41 out of 341 times this season the team scoring first has lost).
Comparing us to Orient - our record is VERY similar to theirs.
Their PPG when scoring first is 2.88 and ours is 2.86, the two best records in the league (even above Brum) and both way above the 2.29 average.
Their PPG when conceding first is 0.27 and ours is 0.50, Orient way below average and us slightly lower than league average.
The first goal isn't just extra critical for Charlton matches, it's particularly critical for Orient too.
Something the stats hide in 'scoring first' is scoring when on top in a game. This is also i think why some of us are frustrated that Charlton mostly seem to stop after scoring just 2, as we don't push on and sometimes this leads to bad situations. Essentially, i fear we're just not very good on the whole, but there's some momentum despite the loss at Brum, fragile though that momentum might yet prove to be.
Orient almost have it all, and their good stats should be no surprise. To get anything there we will need to break the spine in their team which, going by Tuesday at Wrexham, seems to be Happe at centre back, Donley, then Kelman up front. If any of those are not playing or we get on top in those areas we might get something. But that also means controlling phases of the game with what we have. An early goal without giving away anything silly in the rest of the game would be perfect. Wrexham had the better of them early on and scored but couldn't adjust as Orient's football through the thirds was superior.
Some huge gameweeks coming up. The next 5/6 gameweeks there are teams in the top six play each other. Really need Brum to pummel Orient on Tuesday but I think they will struggle without Stansfield in the side. They looked poor today in the spells I watched.
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Also, only once this season have we scored more than 2 goals in a match........and that was the 5-0 drubbing of Northampton. Once we have scored 2 we have not gone on to get 3 or 4 (apart from the Northampton game). Orient have scored more than 2 in a match 6 times.
Not surprising they have a better GD than us.
So when we go there we'd better hope we score first.
Average PPG for teams that score first is 2.29 and average PPG for teams that concede first is 0.54. If you concede the first goal, you only win 12% of the time on average (41 out of 341 times this season the team scoring first has lost).
Comparing us to Orient - our record is VERY similar to theirs.
Their PPG when scoring first is 2.88 and ours is 2.86, the two best records in the league (even above Brum) and both way above the 2.29 average.
Their PPG when conceding first is 0.27 and ours is 0.50, Orient way below average and us slightly lower than league average.
The first goal isn't just extra critical for Charlton matches, it's particularly critical for Orient too.
Orient almost have it all, and their good stats should be no surprise. To get anything there we will need to break the spine in their team which, going by Tuesday at Wrexham, seems to be Happe at centre back, Donley, then Kelman up front. If any of those are not playing or we get on top in those areas we might get something. But that also means controlling phases of the game with what we have. An early goal without giving away anything silly in the rest of the game would be perfect. Wrexham had the better of them early on and scored but couldn't adjust as Orient's football through the thirds was superior.
Of the teams below us, Bolton are the big threat; us beating them did them a favour as they then had to sack Evatt!
Apparently they've not scored a home goal this calendar year