22 more points, or 6 wins and 4 will get us to 75 points, which will probably be enough but might be tight and would leave a greater risk that it comes down to goal difference.
24 points, or 7 wins and 4 draws, is likely to get us home safely and reduces the risk of goal difference coming into play.
80 points or more probably gets us 5th or higher and, theoretically, an easier semi final opponent. Maybe home advantage in the second leg if we can make it to 4th.
Games to come against sides currently in the bottom half of the table (8): - Home: Wigan, Lincoln, Northampton, Burton. - Away: Crawley, Peterborough, Mansfield, Cambridge.
and vs. current top half teams (6): - Home: Barnsley, Huddersfield. - Away: Orient, Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham
Now, it’s League One and we are Charlton so things are never this simple, but if we can win 7 of those 8 “easier” games and draw the other, then we could, theoretically, get to 78 points without having to win any of those tougher looking fixtures and needing to pick up just 3 points from those 6 games. Win all 8 and we’d be on 77 points and might not need a single point from the 6 tougher fixtures.
Obviously the more points we can take off, particularly, the likes or Orient, Stockport, Barnsley, and Huddersfield the better and perhaps the lower the points target becomes. The way we are playing right now, I would not bet against us picking up some decent points in some of those fixtures, but the point is we’ve now put ourselves in a position where it isn’t essential we do that and things are very much in our own hands.
For that reason I don’t want the significance of the Orient game to become overblown. I thought that happened a bit vs. Birmingham and we played the occasion more than the opponent for a chunk of the game which was damaging to our performance. Saturday is a great opportunity but it doesn’t define the rest of our season and if we lose there is plenty of time and opportunity to recover. Even a point would be a good step towards our goal.
I've not included Barnsley now as don't see them making up the 9-point gap, but have added Wrexham as suddenly they've been pulled in (although expect them to grab 3 points against Mansfield later today).
Last 15 games form table shows just how well we've done and the ground we've gained on a lot of the sides who were in the top 6.
Interesting to see we’re the second top goalscorers over those 15 games. Shows goals aren’t the issue they’re probably believed to be by the fanbase in general.
Last 15 games form table shows just how well we've done and the ground we've gained on a lot of the sides who were in the top 6.
Interesting to see we’re the second top goalscorers over those 15 games. Shows goals aren’t the issue they’re probably believed to be by the fanbase in general.
We have only scored one less goal than at the same stage last season when scoring goals was not widely considered a concern. 21 points in front as well!
Also in terms of the play off picture 4th-7th have near enough the same number of points after 32 games as last year too.
Another home win ticked off. Going to be crucial that we keep picking up the points at the Valley - takes a lot of pressure off of away games.
Agreed, i said last week that if we keep winning at home (7 games before Exeter, now 6) then i think we will only need 3 away wins. That'd get us to 77 points which should be enough. Any more wins or even 1-2 draws on top of that and we'll definitely get there.
Last 15 games form table shows just how well we've done and the ground we've gained on a lot of the sides who were in the top 6.
Interesting to see we’re the second top goalscorers over those 15 games. Shows goals aren’t the issue they’re probably believed to be by the fanbase in general.
We have only scored one less goal than at the same stage last season when scoring goals was not widely considered a concern. 21 points in front as well!
Also in terms of the play off picture 4th-7th have near enough the same number of points after 32 games as last year too.
And the season before that we had scored the 7th most amount of goals in the league.
The big difference this year compared to the last couple of years - we can actually defend.
Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!
Wrexham are also in the EFL trophy semi finals, they play Peterborough at home in midweek, so if they get to the final where they will face Birmingham, the media attention and love-in with Ryan Reynolds, Tom Brady and whoever else wants to show their face will surely be a huge distraction.
Last 15 games form table shows just how well we've done and the ground we've gained on a lot of the sides who were in the top 6.
Interesting to see we’re the second top goalscorers over those 15 games. Shows goals aren’t the issue they’re probably believed to be by the fanbase in general.
The goal differences show that no team has been regularly winning by 2 or more goals so far.
I think the significant piece of information recently provided is the 15 game recent form table. Is it a reasonable expectation that we can replicate this, if so that puts us in a very healthy position and I have some confidence that we can do this.
I think the significant piece of information recently provided is the 15 game recent form table. Is it a reasonable expectation that we can replicate this, if so that puts us in a very healthy position and I have some confidence that we can do this.
If it was to continue along that form table for rest of season, it would be a top 6 in order of Birmingham, Wycombe, Orient, Wrexham, Stockport, Us (Stockport and us around equal points, so could be GD for 5th/6th).
Obviously, current form table won't run exactly again for remaining 14 games, but interesting to look at it anyway.
Being in Feb and still having something to play for is a rare treat for us! Even if we don't get playoffs/go up I think we are fairly well set for next season. Don't need wholesale changes for once and 3/4 of real quality could have us challenging for Top 2 perhaps. Fingers crossed Luton, Plymouth & Derby come down as I think that's a 3 that aren't guarenteed to bounce straight back. If Cardiff, Hull or Stoke come down I think they'd smash the league next season.
Problem is if we don't go up we would probably lose Small, Ramsay, Leaburn and maybe TC.
I think the significant piece of information recently provided is the 15 game recent form table. Is it a reasonable expectation that we can replicate this, if so that puts us in a very healthy position and I have some confidence that we can do this.
If it was to continue along that form table for rest of season, it would be a top 6 in order of Birmingham, Wycombe, Orient, Wrexham, Stockport, Us (Stockport and us around equal points, so could be GD for 5th/6th).
Obviously, current form table won't run exactly again for remaining 14 games, but interesting to look at it anyway.
I hadn't realised Stockport have played a game more than everybody in the play off race, so end of season table below is based on PPG from the current 15-game table.
Hopefully we'll make them and I'll be able to get to my first games this season in them. Been stuck inside pretty much for a year after injuring myself, stupidly got a season ticket thinking I'll be better in time.
It would be a really Charlton thing to win the next 3 games against our promotion rivals and then blow up against Crawley and Wigan which on paper should be much easier fixtures.
Given where we now find ourselves I will regard it as failure if we don’t make the playoffs. We were utter shyte until December but somehow we have a settled team, injury free with back up and a new style of play that is effective and pleasing on the eye. Remarkable given how poor we were that we are still in the hunt but them’s the breaks and it is a piss poor league. It’s in our hands. Keep winning and don’t worry about the other connotations.
In my mind it all comes down to those tough final 2 away games in the space of 5 days (Wycombe and Wrexham)... have no doubt we'll still be in the mix going into those last couple of weeks but if we were to lose two on the trot at that stage with only one game left afterwards, it may well see us just miss out
think we need to win 9 from 15 and 1 of those has to come against Leyton orient,
below are fixtures with teams current league position.
Exeter H 17th Orient A 6th Barnsley H 11th Stockport A 4th Crawley A 22nd Wigan H 16th Pboro A 20th Hudds H 5th Mansfield A 15th Lincoln H 10th Cambridge A 24th Northampton H 19th Wycombe A 2nd Wrexham A 3rd Burton H 21st
looking at that its pretty bleak as not only do we play 4 of the top 6 currently but also a few down the bottom that are fighting for survival, as much as people say brum a was a free hit i dont agree should be trying to win every league game.
if i had to pick 9 wins out of that i would go
exeter h barnsley h crawley a wigan h pboro a hudds h cambridge a northampton h burton h
That does look achievable.... but 1) assumes that we only need 75 points when it could be more this season 2) some of the wins will have to be against the main competitors for 3rd-6th to deprive them of points as several of them are performing well and therefore likely to achieve more than 75
Whilst our form is good, some of the others (L Orient Stockport) is better. TTTop20 highlighted Stockport have achieved 1.9 points per game over the last 3 and a half seasons as they have progressed up the leagues.ie they have winning habits.
I think we have to hope that Wrexham stutter, Huddersfield recent wins are a false dawn and Orient become unstuck with their next 3/4(Bolton away,Birmingham away, us Home , Rotherham away) games and lose confidence for the rest of the run -in.
9 wins would give us 77 points.
77 points would've got you into the play offs in every season apart from 1 since 2010. The one season was 21-22 when Wycombe were 6th with an incredible 83 points. Plymouth in 7th got 80.
Sure but we are yet to see how this season pans out- is it a "standard " season or an exceptional one?
We all like the excitement of a win and extrapolating it to a season but lets have a bit of realism here Total season goals "for" recent opposition (home and away) Exeter goals "for" 34 Stevenage goals for 30 Bristol Rovers goal for 33 Shrewsbury. etc 31 Peterborough goals for 48 (but look at the defensive record against 58)
Are you saying this is typical for all opposition? This season they are all low scoring teams. We beat teams that are pony. Higher scoring teams Birmingham goals for 51- we lost Blackpool goals for 48-we drew Reading goals for 46-we drew ie more potent teams recently the results are less exciting. And we haven't even gone into the performances/style of play.
We have beaten some sides recently who have very little threat- don't get me wrong these sides have to be beaten- but it's highly likely that our rivals will as well.
Thats why we have to beat our rivals as well as the lower teams.
So the wins are great for confidence but the real tests are coming.
Looks like Huddersfield are still in a "lull" of results and Stockport losing was a surprise.So maybe there are 2. places up for grabs.
It would be a really Charlton thing to win the next 3 games against our promotion rivals and then blow up against Crawley and Wigan which on paper should be much easier fixtures.
Tbh it'd be better to do that than lose to rivals and beat the lower teams.
In my mind it all comes down to those tough final 2 away games in the space of 5 days (Wycombe and Wrexham)... have no doubt we'll still be in the mix going into those last couple of weeks but if we were to lose two on the trot at that stage with only one game left afterwards, it may well see us just miss out
If by then Wycombe have already confirmed second place, it will be a slightly easier game than if they are still being chased for that last auto spot.
Comments
Bolton - 12 points
Stockport - 10 points
Us - 10 points
Reading - 9 points
Wrexham - 7 points
Huddersfield - 7 points
Also in terms of the play off picture 4th-7th have near enough the same number of points after 32 games as last year too.
Stockport dragged right back into it, ahead of a tricky run of games.
Wycombe 87
Wrexham 86
Orient 86
Us 82
Stockport 80
Huddersfield 76
Bolton 74
next 3 games are huge and will decide where we end up imo
point at Orient
beat Barnsley
point at Stockport
would do me.
We all like the excitement of a win and extrapolating it to a season but lets have a bit of realism here
Total season goals "for" recent opposition (home and away)
Exeter goals "for" 34
Stevenage goals for 30
Bristol Rovers goal for 33
Shrewsbury. etc 31
Peterborough goals for 48 (but look at the defensive record against 58)
Are you saying this is typical for all opposition? This season they are all low scoring teams. We beat teams that are pony.
Higher scoring teams
Birmingham goals for 51- we lost
Blackpool goals for 48-we drew
Reading goals for 46-we drew
ie more potent teams recently the results are less exciting. And we haven't even gone into the performances/style of play.
We have beaten some sides recently who have very little threat- don't get me wrong these sides have to be beaten- but it's highly likely that our rivals will as well.
Thats why we have to beat our rivals as well as the lower teams.
So the wins are great for confidence but the real tests are coming.
Looks like Huddersfield are still in a "lull" of results and Stockport losing was a surprise.So maybe there are 2. places up for grabs.
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/football/supercomputer-predicts-league-one-table-with-barnsley-wrexham-leyton-orient-and-huddersfield-town-verdicts-5004260?page=7