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Will We Win the Playoffs?
Comments
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Every single stat points towards us beating them, I still wouldn't be that confident.ElfsborgAddick said:
I know my football, we will glide past Wycombe.Braziliance said:
Ah mate don't worry I've talked us down a fair bit and said we have had our luck at Wembley etc.Alwaysneil said:Well that's jnxed it, what between braziliance and elfsborg we may as well all book vacation for the 25th as we either won't be there or will lose 3-0
Elfsborg has been taking the piss, can't believe how sure he is we will beat Wycombe, fair play 😂
Just feels cursed.7 -
Yep agreed, taking nothing for granted here. Yes, they've lost to all the top sides this season, and are in a run of poor form against some of those sides. But look what they did at Bolton a few weeks ago, a high pressure game. The 3 goals from nowhere at Rotherham. They're a more than capable side.Braziliance said:
Every single stat points towards us beating them, I still wouldn't be that confident.ElfsborgAddick said:
I know my football, we will glide past Wycombe.Braziliance said:
Ah mate don't worry I've talked us down a fair bit and said we have had our luck at Wembley etc.Alwaysneil said:Well that's jnxed it, what between braziliance and elfsborg we may as well all book vacation for the 25th as we either won't be there or will lose 3-0
Elfsborg has been taking the piss, can't believe how sure he is we will beat Wycombe, fair play 😂
Just feels cursed.4 -
Another example you could use of Bolton is that they lost to Oxford at Wembley. Superior head to head, league position, more fans in attendance, everything pointed towards Bolton winning and they lost.Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:
Yep agreed, taking nothing for granted here. Yes, they've lost to all the top sides this season, and are in a run of poor form against some of those sides. But look what they did at Bolton a few weeks ago, a high pressure game. The 3 goals from nowhere at Rotherham. They're a more than capable side.Braziliance said:
Every single stat points towards us beating them, I still wouldn't be that confident.ElfsborgAddick said:
I know my football, we will glide past Wycombe.Braziliance said:
Ah mate don't worry I've talked us down a fair bit and said we have had our luck at Wembley etc.Alwaysneil said:Well that's jnxed it, what between braziliance and elfsborg we may as well all book vacation for the 25th as we either won't be there or will lose 3-0
Elfsborg has been taking the piss, can't believe how sure he is we will beat Wycombe, fair play 😂
Just feels cursed.
Prior to that game in the last 9 from 2016:
Bolton had 5 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
Aggregate score 15 - 10. They beat Oxford 5 nil 2 months before Wembley.
It genuinely concerns me how easily we beat Wycombe both times. Surely a team prepares for that the third time. Similar to how we lost to Sunderland at theirs, drew at ours but then won the one that mattered (I thought we lost twice tbh but just checked)
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Next Thursday, London SE7, about 10.00pm.Braziliance said:
According to Grok it's Crawley Town Vs Milton Keynes.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Our of interest what is the highest?Braziliance said:I went on some podcast thing today in Manchester, it was a play-off style cast, a fan from each team in the play-offs. Something GreeneKing have been doing.
Let me tell you, the Wycombe fan has 0 confidence they'll get past us. He thinks it will be the highest aggregate score in play-off history.
The Stockport fan very modest and thinks we will win the play-offs, says he can already see our name on the Wembley board saying congratulations, is hoping Wycombe beat us.
The Orient fan was also quite modest but believes its Stockports to win, and think if we play Orient, they owe us one for the fouls on their keeper at their place leading to our goals. Can't say I remember any fouls if I'm honest, but she was nice enough.
Stockport fan also said a lot of the people he speaks with at games thinks it's ours to win/we are the team to avoid.
Between that confidence, us winning at Wembley twice already and having a good record against 2 of the 3 of them. It makes me worry we won't do it, law of averages etc 😂
Crawley won 3-0 at home and then 5-1 away. 8-1 aggregate and a 7 goal swing.
I can't see that being topped anytime soon
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I don't think it unreasonable to predict a Stockport vs Charlton final. Orient will be a tough game, but Stockport are the higher placed team AND are also in excellent form.se9addick said:
Lots of the “pundits” when covering League One are awful, essentially journalists who spend 99% of their life focused on the (top of the) Premier League and when making playoff predictions will just be looking at how the league table finished.SidewaysInOz said:Some of the Pundits have the Final as Stockport vs. Charlton with Stockport going on to win it. What do they know! It's all on the day and the whole day can get to teams. I almost think form goes out the window as it is knockout football. If we make it I'll be flying back as I did in 2019. COYR!I’ll probably be completely wrong, but I actually have a feeling Orient might beat Stockport.
Stockport vs Charlton will be very tight, you can make a good case for either team to win.0 -
That was a baffling 2 games, and only last year.Braziliance said:
According to Grok it's Crawley Town Vs Milton Keynes.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Our of interest what is the highest?Braziliance said:I went on some podcast thing today in Manchester, it was a play-off style cast, a fan from each team in the play-offs. Something GreeneKing have been doing.
Let me tell you, the Wycombe fan has 0 confidence they'll get past us. He thinks it will be the highest aggregate score in play-off history.
The Stockport fan very modest and thinks we will win the play-offs, says he can already see our name on the Wembley board saying congratulations, is hoping Wycombe beat us.
The Orient fan was also quite modest but believes its Stockports to win, and think if we play Orient, they owe us one for the fouls on their keeper at their place leading to our goals. Can't say I remember any fouls if I'm honest, but she was nice enough.
Stockport fan also said a lot of the people he speaks with at games thinks it's ours to win/we are the team to avoid.
Between that confidence, us winning at Wembley twice already and having a good record against 2 of the 3 of them. It makes me worry we won't do it, law of averages etc 😂
Crawley won 3-0 at home and then 5-1 away. 8-1 aggregate and a 7 goal swing.
I can't see that being topped anytime soon0 -
Braziliance said:
Every single stat points towards us beating them, I still wouldn't be that confident.ElfsborgAddick said:
I know my football, we will glide past Wycombe.Braziliance said:
Ah mate don't worry I've talked us down a fair bit and said we have had our luck at Wembley etc.Alwaysneil said:Well that's jnxed it, what between braziliance and elfsborg we may as well all book vacation for the 25th as we either won't be there or will lose 3-0
Elfsborg has been taking the piss, can't believe how sure he is we will beat Wycombe, fair play 😂
Just feels cursed.
I hear where you're coming from.
I was convinced Charlton would beat Millwall in the Solly red card game and at 1-0 up and battered and bruised after ending up in the row in front after the celebrations and feeling there may be a football god who doesn't like Millwall BUT it was the biggest anti climax of my footballing life when the 10 men for 65 off odd minutes ran out of steam and lost 2-1.
The thought of a full house at the Valley and we don't get through over the two legs would be the biggest anti climax since bad Friday at the Den.2 -
I'm confident. Think our defence will see us over the line. Rewatched Doncaster highlights last night, we are no way near that open at the back now. Just need to get the goals...2
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Here’s a scenario that I tell my youngest son, if we are destined not to get promoted, I would rather lose the semi final than face that misery at Wembley.
He wants a day out at Wembley regardless
What say you?3 -
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Call me over confident if you like or tempting fate, but I feel it will be an all London Final, and I would also say that we could have another Sunderland high score draw, extra time, and penalties on our hands, but having said that, I feel we will finish triumphant and achieve our goal of promotion.
This is our year...🏆1 -
So the four teams have a roughly one in four chance of promotion?Callumcafc said:8 -
Having missed the last one due to work I’d love a day out at Wembley, I know they’re more frequent these days with play offs more likely while in the EFL but you don’t know when you’ll next get a chanceDA9 said:Here’s a scenario that I tell my youngest son, if we are destined not to get promoted, I would rather lose the semi final than face that misery at Wembley.
He wants a day out at Wembley regardless
What say you?1 -
Law of averages would not apply to a one-off tie.DamoNorthStand said:I said all along I didn’t want to get Wycombe in a semi final. I’m a data guy by trade and in any given sample of 4 games versus another play off contender, the chances of us winning all four are very slim. Even 3 of 4 would be some going.
They simply won’t be as bad as the last game we played them. Law of averages says they have to beat us eventually.0 -
Day out at WembleyDA9 said:Here’s a scenario that I tell my youngest son, if we are destined not to get promoted, I would rather lose the semi final than face that misery at Wembley.
He wants a day out at Wembley regardless
What say you?2 -
If I was to estimate the percentages, I'd have our percentage to reach the final at 60% (and Wycombe 40%) and the Stockport/Orient one more like 52/48.Callumcafc said:
Then to win, Orient would be higher, and Wycombe lower, as I don't fancy them to beat 2 of the 3 other sides.0 -
If you know you are not going to be promoted then i agree with you i'd rather lose the semi final. That way you save time on everything that goes with the build up, the expense of the ticket and day out and of course the misery of losing a final on live tv and watching another team celebrate whilst you contemplate another year stuck in this shit league.DA9 said:Here’s a scenario that I tell my youngest son, if we are destined not to get promoted, I would rather lose the semi final than face that misery at Wembley.
He wants a day out at Wembley regardless
What say you?5 -
Chris_from_Sidcup said:
If you know you are not going to be promoted then i agree with you i'd rather lose the semi final. That way you save time on everything that goes with the build up, the expense of the ticket and day out and of course the misery of losing a final on live tv and watching another team celebrate whilst you contemplate another year stuck in this shit league.DA9 said:Here’s a scenario that I tell my youngest son, if we are destined not to get promoted, I would rather lose the semi final than face that misery at Wembley.
He wants a day out at Wembley regardless
What say you?
Can't imagine anything worse than that awful walk back to Wembley Park listening to the other team celebrating in the ground behind you.2 -
I don't actually think we'll make Wembley. Far too much confidence on this forum around final plans etc, and the fact we hammer Wycombe so recently works against us imo. Would be such a Charlton thing to do.8
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I’m really confident we beat Stockport at Wembley if that turns out to be the final as the Wembley pitch will be an advantage to us I think. I’m more nervous about Wycombe I just don’t see that they will be the pushover some seem to think. Yes they have had a bad run but bad runs end and they will have a point to provekillerandflash said:
I don't think it unreasonable to predict a Stockport vs Charlton final. Orient will be a tough game, but Stockport are the higher placed team AND are also in excellent form.se9addick said:
Lots of the “pundits” when covering League One are awful, essentially journalists who spend 99% of their life focused on the (top of the) Premier League and when making playoff predictions will just be looking at how the league table finished.SidewaysInOz said:Some of the Pundits have the Final as Stockport vs. Charlton with Stockport going on to win it. What do they know! It's all on the day and the whole day can get to teams. I almost think form goes out the window as it is knockout football. If we make it I'll be flying back as I did in 2019. COYR!I’ll probably be completely wrong, but I actually have a feeling Orient might beat Stockport.
Stockport vs Charlton will be very tight, you can make a good case for either team to win.1 -
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Orient have won 6 on the trot.killerandflash said:
I don't think it unreasonable to predict a Stockport vs Charlton final. Orient will be a tough game, but Stockport are the higher placed team AND are also in excellent form.se9addick said:
Lots of the “pundits” when covering League One are awful, essentially journalists who spend 99% of their life focused on the (top of the) Premier League and when making playoff predictions will just be looking at how the league table finished.SidewaysInOz said:Some of the Pundits have the Final as Stockport vs. Charlton with Stockport going on to win it. What do they know! It's all on the day and the whole day can get to teams. I almost think form goes out the window as it is knockout football. If we make it I'll be flying back as I did in 2019. COYR!I’ll probably be completely wrong, but I actually have a feeling Orient might beat Stockport.
Stockport vs Charlton will be very tight, you can make a good case for either team to win.3 -
don't turn down a day out at Wembley - my boy (8) is absolutely desperate to go and I've promised I'll take him if we get thereDA9 said:Here’s a scenario that I tell my youngest son, if we are destined not to get promoted, I would rather lose the semi final than face that misery at Wembley.
He wants a day out at Wembley regardless
What say you?1 -
We've never lost a playoff game under an American Pope14
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But it’s two legs… 🦵🏼🦵🏼Northupper said:
Law of averages would not apply to a one-off tie.DamoNorthStand said:I said all along I didn’t want to get Wycombe in a semi final. I’m a data guy by trade and in any given sample of 4 games versus another play off contender, the chances of us winning all four are very slim. Even 3 of 4 would be some going.
They simply won’t be as bad as the last game we played them. Law of averages says they have to beat us eventually.0 -
Very interesting post I just saw on Wycombe forums;
Basically, Wycombe have been shitting the bed a bit whenever there's a lot of fans present.0 -
Best of luck at the 90k capacity Wembley.Braziliance said:Very interesting post I just saw on Wycombe forums;
Basically, Wycombe have been shitting the bed a bit whenever there's a lot of fans present.0 -
Without reading though those stats I thought along these lines too - they're clearly a highly capable team but there seems a correlation between size of the occasion and the outcome. Bolton away the outlier.Braziliance said:Very interesting post I just saw on Wycombe forums;
Basically, Wycombe have been shitting the bed a bit whenever there's a lot of fans present.
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I'm guessing we'll have a rude awakening at wycombe , i'd take a draw here and now but fear a heavy defeat4
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It does also show how poor they've been against the best teams in the division.Braziliance said:Very interesting post I just saw on Wycombe forums;
Basically, Wycombe have been shitting the bed a bit whenever there's a lot of fans present.
At home they've lost against the 4 teams above them.
Away they've lost against 5 of the top 7, the exception being an extraordinary 5-0 win at Stockport. A tiny number of Wycombe fans there though!
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The account “Charlton_Stats” on Twitter said that we have been successful in the playoffs (ie winning promotion / avoiding relegation) 3 out of 4 times when starting with an away leg:
1987 - Ipswich (0-0 D at Portman Rd) - avoid relegation
1998 - Ipswich (0-1 W at Portman Rd) - promoted
2010 - Swindon (2-1 L at County Ground)
2019 - Doncaster (1-2 W at Keepmoat Stadium) - promoted
So if we avoid defeat on Sunday, we’re going all the way, nailed on.
If we lose on Sunday, expect Wycombe to be losing finalists - like Swindon were in 2010.5
