Thursday 5pm - Croatia v Italy - Preview/Match Thread

Italy v Croatia-Thursday 14th June- 5pm kick-off

FIFA Rankings:
Italy 12, Croatia 8

Whilst you might struggle to recall too many famous Croatians, one that comes to everyone’s mind is, of course, Andrija Mohorovicic, the pioneer of seismology. And, at first sight, you might expect there to be shock waves through European football if Croatia were to topple Italy in this Group C fixture. However, Sepp Blatter and his cronies presumably take the ranking system seriously and it would surprise some to find that Croatia is four places ahead of their close neighbours.

With 3 points for a win and only 1 for a draw, the pressure is on The Azzurri to win this one – a draw could leave them sweating on Spain to beat Croatia and a defeat could mean the end of their tournament.

Tactics

Croatia looked a classy side against Ireland, although they will find the going tougher against Italy. We are all familiar with the silky skills of Modric in midfield, but Rakitic and Perisic also had the Irish chasing shadows for long periods. Up front Mandzukic and Jelavic will be hoping to add to their goal tally even though they won’t have the help of diving headers from Shay Given. Italy’s manager, Prandelli, describes Croatia’s tactics and formation as changing over the course a game making them a difficult team to counter and less predictable than Spain.

How Italy will line up is difficult to judge. A defensive system against Spain (described by one paper as 4-6-0) succeeded in limiting the chances of the Champions, but this game is pivotal in Group C and Italy will need to try to wrap up three points. Di Natale scored after replacing an increasingly frustrated Balotelli in the Spain match and is rumoured to be in line for keeping his place.

Ones to watch: Modric (Croatia) Pirlo (Italy)

Odds: I’d keep your money in your pocket for this one, but, if you fancy a flutter, the best odds seem to be: Italy (4/3 – 32Red), Croatia (5/2 – Totesport), the draw (23/10 Bet365)

Prediction:

Less than 50 miles separate the borders of Italy and Croatia and this game could be a close one in the Battle of the Adriatic.

Recent tournaments do not help much in assessing the likely outcome. At Euro 2008, Croatia won all three group matches, including a win over Germany, only to succumb to Turkey on penalties. Italy, at the same tournament, scraped through the group stage with 4 points, but lost on penalties to Spain.
At the World Cup in 2010, Italy returned home after coming bottom of a group that included New Zealand, while Croatia failed to qualify.

Whilst the Croatian shirts look like a chequered flag (for those watching in black and white), it seems unlikely that they will have the legs to be there at the finish of this event. However, they are no mugs. Italy has never beaten Croatia and it could stay that way as a 1-1 draw looks a likely outcome.