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Welsh National tomorrow
PeanutsMolloy
Posts: 6,737
It will be a typical slog in the Chepstow mud tomorrow.
There isn’t the vast array of stats (certainly not a 25-year spreadsheet) that there is with the Aintree Grand National but there are a few interesting snippets that permit a "quick and dirty" elimination job.
Stats from last 15 runnings:
1. Winners all 6~9 years old (only 2 winners since 1979 were older than 9 [both 10])
- Eliminates: Giles Cross (11), Michel Le Bon, Master Overseer, Jadanli (11), Mon Mome (13), Triggerman (11), Sona Sasta, Incentivise, Arbor Supreme (11)
2. Horses carrying more than 11.00 have a poor record (2 wins from last 15) and none of last 15 winners has carried more than 10.08 that hadn’t previously won a Class 1 chase over 3m+
- Eliminates: Across The Bay, Teaforthree, Soll, Universal Soldier, Alfie Spinner
3. 9 of last 15 winners had previously won over Chepstow’s fences. All of other 6 had at least been placed in a Class 1 chase at 3m+
- Eliminates: Harouet, Our Island
So, the winner should be either: Viking Blond [8-10-07] (currently 11.5 on Betfair) or Monbeg Dude [8-10-01] (15 on Betfair)
It's not a race for long shots (25/1 is the longest priced winner of the last 15).
There isn’t the vast array of stats (certainly not a 25-year spreadsheet) that there is with the Aintree Grand National but there are a few interesting snippets that permit a "quick and dirty" elimination job.
Stats from last 15 runnings:
1. Winners all 6~9 years old (only 2 winners since 1979 were older than 9 [both 10])
- Eliminates: Giles Cross (11), Michel Le Bon, Master Overseer, Jadanli (11), Mon Mome (13), Triggerman (11), Sona Sasta, Incentivise, Arbor Supreme (11)
2. Horses carrying more than 11.00 have a poor record (2 wins from last 15) and none of last 15 winners has carried more than 10.08 that hadn’t previously won a Class 1 chase over 3m+
- Eliminates: Across The Bay, Teaforthree, Soll, Universal Soldier, Alfie Spinner
3. 9 of last 15 winners had previously won over Chepstow’s fences. All of other 6 had at least been placed in a Class 1 chase at 3m+
- Eliminates: Harouet, Our Island
So, the winner should be either: Viking Blond [8-10-07] (currently 11.5 on Betfair) or Monbeg Dude [8-10-01] (15 on Betfair)
It's not a race for long shots (25/1 is the longest priced winner of the last 15).
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Comments
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Impressive stuff as always Peanuts.0
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Bit previous but cheers anyway. A relatively low conviction analysis this one but once a statto, always a statto ;o)0
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Peanuts, your account is in credit with me (from Tidal Bay), so I will be having a bit on.0
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Was looking for a home for a spare 20 quid. Thanks Peanuts.0
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Find it behind the sofa?0
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Have to say the favourite (Teaforthree [9-11-03]) is a big threat (he won't be 1/2 a furlong behind my two as he was on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in November) but it is a special horse that can carry 11.03 to win a Welsh National.
Only 1 horse older than 8 has carried 11.00+ to win it since 1979 and that was the extraordinary Carvill's Hill.
At 7/2, even with McCoy on board, I'll pass him by but he will figure for sure.
PS Only 1 of last 15 favourites has won the Welsh National0 -
Which one would you go for?
So, the winner should be either: Viking Blond [8-10-07] (currently 11.5 on Betfair) or Monbeg Dude [8-10-01] (15 on Betfair)0 -
Thanks for the analysis Peanuts0
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Thanks Penuts, I'll have a punt on this0
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Who have you tipped peanuts?0
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Peanuts what was the horse, I was banging on about after last years Welsh National, the Hobbs horse.0
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I think he was Chance Du Roy. Coming on nicely and has run well over the GN fences. Still only a 9 year old but maybe not a 4.5 miler.northstandsteve said:Peanuts what was the horse, I was banging on about after last years Welsh National, the Hobbs horse.
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Cheers mate that's the one, looks a out and out stayer to me.0
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Holy Cow. Going stick reading is 3.3! Lowest ever recorded while remaining raceable at Chepstow - virtually a bog. They had almost a foot of rain in December. Could do with a drop more to loosen it up, otherwise it will be very holding.0
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Monbeg Dude is number 13.
Apparently as a Pisces, 4 is this years lucky number.
1+3 = 4.
Its an omen.0 -
Cheers will give holy cow a go0
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Is it on channel 4 tomorrow or do they not have the rights as it doesnt say anything about it on the info bar on sky.0
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Channel 4, 3.200
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cheers0
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Chepstow's covered by Attheraces aswell, of course (Sky 415).0
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For me, it's a race to steer well clear of. Better bets to be found are 12.45 Sand. - Kentford Grey Lady, 13.50 Sand. - William's Wishes and 14.05 Winc. -Gevrey Chambertin.0
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Why is Alfie Spinner still declared in welsh national and the 15:40 at Sandown. His price is drifting in the national but he is being backed at Sandown. Does this mean he is more likely to run at Sandown and how long are they allowed to leave it before they have to choose a race, obviously the ground is a concern but its not fair on punters as I fancy him at Sandown but not in the national and I dont want a non runner potentially ruining my lucky 15.0
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I've gone e/w on Monbeg Dude thanks to peanuts analysis0
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On both of em, fingers crossed peanuts!0
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The DUUUUUUDEEEE
YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
nice one peanuts0
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Definitely Monbeg Dude ;o)Absurdistan said:Which one would you go for?
So, the winner should be either: Viking Blond [8-10-07] (currently 11.5 on Betfair) or Monbeg Dude [8-10-01] (15 on Betfair)
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What a legend Peanuts!!!0
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Peanuts, you legend. Monbeg Dude, you beauty, great run.0
