We Are NOT Safe! Projected Final Table Standings Based on Current Form
Comments
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Relegation has only been a serious possibility since Robinson took over.
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Come on the sky blues!0
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The current form table based on "last ten games" has two, horrific items of note. Charlton are in a relegation spot (third from bottom) and Millwall are in an automatic promotion spot (second placed).1
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I can say this much with confidence... the odds of us going down the next couple months is a lot higher than us being sold to an owner we will want.
And we have 550 responses to a thread about a possible sale and just a few dozen about possible relegation.
I think we have our eye off the ball.2 -
PS- everyone should be rooting their ass off for Coventry to beat Port Vale today. Port Vale losing matches is now as important as Charlton winning them.0
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Coventry 1-0 up.1
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2-0 up0
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panic overAddick Addict said:2-0 up
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So relieved.0
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Good ol Kyel Reid. Knew he was our saviour!1
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Port Vale have managed 6 corners but only one shot, and none on goal.0
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Coventry 2 Port Vale 10
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7 mins left.0
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Vale losing 1-2.0
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It's good they lost, as this was the easiest match on the rest of their schedule
But if we lose our next game and create no separation, then we have gained almost nothing on them. Only narrowed the range for them to overtake us by about 1/8th.0 -
I agree with Evesham Addict, the Gills may well be the ones to drop. They have the worst goal difference outside of the drop zone with -16. Not the best of run ins either.0
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Scary, but 'current form' here is based purely on results. We've actually been playing better than current form suggests, and we'll be fine.NapaAddick said:Six teams below us?
Three of four relegation spots already set in stone?
One relegation spot left?
We must be safe, right? Wrong. Not even close.
CAFC and those below us have 7-10 matches left. If all teams continue in current form of their last 7-10 to finish out the season, this is what the final Table will look like.
Below, I show each club and their projected final position, their current points as of the end of 3/19, current form (last 7-10 results (wins-draws-losses)) depending on how many they have left, and final projected table points if they continue.
Prepare yourself.... it's scary.
Final Pos....Current Pts..... Form Proj......Final Points
15. Bury.........45..................4-2-1.............59
16. MK Dons..47..................2-3-3.............56
17. Gillingh....45.................3-1-3..............55
18. Oldham...44.................2-4-1...............54
19. Shrewsb..43.................3-2-3...............54
20. CHARLT...47................1-2-4...............52
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21. Port V.......41................2-3-5................50
22. Swind.......36................2-1-4...............43
23. Chest.......33................1-3-3................39
24. Covent.....26.................1-1-6...............30
Some notes........
1. At this pace, if everyone stays on form, we will drop 5 places and miss relegation by just two points
2. Every team below us not already "doomed" is playing much better than us.
3. Five of the six teams below us fighting for the final drop-spot are within just 4 points of us in the table right now
4. Port Vale has 2 games in hand and potentially could be equal to us on those alone if they maintain form
5. Five of our last matches are against teams below us, so it's in our hands, win or lose
6. It might come down to our final match against Swindon Town at The Valley
7. We really need 2 wins and 1 tie (7 points) to feel safe given how others are playing
Sorry to add fear to the situation but we are nowhere near safe and in fact are in a lot more danger than we are admitting.
No, really!2 -
Needless to say I feel a lot better that all of you feel better.0
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Never thought we'd be relying on Port Vale losing games in hand.7
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yes it does come to something when I spending Tuesday night keeping my fingers crossed that Port Vale lose to Coventry. We SHOULD be ok but until we get a few more points I won't rest easyWheresmeticket? said:Never thought we'd be relying on Port Vale losing games in hand.
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You do mean "lose to" don't you?redman said:
yes it does come to something when I spending Tuesday night keeping my fingers crossed that Port Vale beat Coventry. We SHOULD be ok but until we get a few more points I won't rest easyWheresmeticket? said:Never thought we'd be relying on Port Vale losing games in hand.
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oops changed! thanksWheresmeticket? said:
You do mean "lose to" don't you?redman said:
yes it does come to something when I spending Tuesday night keeping my fingers crossed that Port Vale beat Coventry. We SHOULD be ok but until we get a few more points I won't rest easyWheresmeticket? said:Never thought we'd be relying on Port Vale losing games in hand.
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We have at least three 1.1 draws to come.
Safety at last.
Cheers Roland you twat2 -
MK Dons v Port Vale moved to this weekend as MK's opponents (Us) and Port Vale's opponents (Walsall) asked for a postponements and both side's being free mooved the game to Saturday.
In some ways it might be better if MK won because that would keep the gap at 6 points between us and Vale even though MK would jump above us.1 -
MK lose 6-0, incur seven short-term injuries and three red cards please0
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We were looking over our shoulders under Slade too.alan dugdale said:Relegation has only been a serious possibility since Robinson took over.
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That was because we were patiently waiting for the midfield to catch up.1
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I reckon the best tally we'll end up with would be 57-58 points.
Even if we're not relegated, this will turn out to be our most disappointing season, and our lowest League placing, since the '20's.
Worse than 1973/74 with Foley and 2010/11 with Parkinson/Powell.
Bit of a landmark.......and, given the mismatch between our squad and our results, not clear if the decline will be reversed or will continue.0 -
In truth there will be easier games for them as the season draws to a close and there will be teams with less to play for.NapaAddick said:It's good they lost, as this was the easiest match on the rest of their schedule
But if we lose our next game and create no separation, then we have gained almost nothing on them. Only narrowed the range for them to overtake us by about 1/8th.
Also even if we don't increase out lead we will have gained, in real terms, as there will be fewer games for them to reduce the lead we have.0 -
The bottom 8 are all at home tomorrow :-(
What's the chances of that ? Bob Munro ?0
