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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • Chizz said:

    What is a "good deal" though? Specifically, can you - or anyone - articulate a deal that isn't worse, economically, than staying in?
    The economic benefits of Brexit by a Remainer economist.

    Brexit will take a heavy toll, but could herald an economic rebirth

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-will-take-a-heavy-toll-but-could-herald-an-economic-rebirth-nd3sl8ksq
  • We've had 500 pages of this, so there's no point going over old ground ad finitum.

    However, I suspect many Brexiteers were happy to accept a deal where we may be slightly worse off economically in the short/medium term, in exchange for having more more control over our laws and borders.
    I suspect very few believed we would be better off economically in the short term.
    Not when they were promised sunlit uplands, Brexit bonus, holding all the cards, easiest deal in history, no Brexit downside
  • Chizz said:

    Is there an option that isn't a no no for many?
    No, hence the mess we are in
  • Southbank said:

    The economic benefits of Brexit by a Remainer economist.

    Brexit will take a heavy toll, but could herald an economic rebirth

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-will-take-a-heavy-toll-but-could-herald-an-economic-rebirth-nd3sl8ksq
    Here is David Davis' guide




  • Southbank said:

    The economic benefits of Brexit by a Remainer economist.

    Brexit will take a heavy toll, but could herald an economic rebirth

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-will-take-a-heavy-toll-but-could-herald-an-economic-rebirth-nd3sl8ksq
    Think the key word in that Times heading is “but”

  • At the moment I can't see how there is any brexit in either the short of long term without the UK breaking the Good Friday Agreement.
    If that happens there would have to be a hard border on the island of Ireland. Technology, cameras, electronic dockets, trusted trader status...none of that will ever work in practice. The two reasons being if there is a border there needs to be an infrastructure to deal with transgressions, and the physical nature of the border, the Geography, means it can't be wholly controlled.
    Canada, Switzerland, Norway, Mays deal, no deal...none of them will ultimately work without breaking the GFA.
    Brexiters have the dilemma which says what they want has to override the GFA, if the UK breaks that treaty for the sake of brexit trouble will follow.

  • No offence but I put as much emphasis on those David Davies findings as I do any similar expert findings.

    I’m in a job where I receive regular interest/inflation forecasts from the experts in that field, many of which prove to be a bag of shite.

    Why? Because any of these projections are full of limitations and unknowns, obviously. And this scenario is the extreme of that. It’s guess work, educated guess work maybe but still guess work.
  • edited November 2018



    perhaps or perhaps not it is still a negotiation I think at this point (whats up with the quote feature)
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  • No offence but I put as much emphasis on those David Davies findings as I do any similar expert findings.

    I’m in a job where I receive regular interest/inflation forecasts from the experts in that field, many of which prove to be a bag of shite.

    Why? Because any of these projections are full of limitations and unknowns, obviously. And this scenario is the extreme of that. It’s guess work, educated guess work maybe but still guess work.

    All the more reason ‘not to rock the boat’ perhaps?
  • razil said:

    Quote feature failed me.
  • Here is David Davis' guide




    If this sort of SPECIFIC information was available during the referendum campaign, I don't recall the likes of Cameron and Osborne strongly and continually emphasising it.

    Yes of course they said we would be worse off and they said we would be immediately worse off after the votes were cast and result known, but I'm not aware of them strongly emphasising these specific figures.

    The Remain campaign was about as effective as a Katrien Powerpoint presentation.
  • Here is David Davis' guide




    well the Remain score is bollox for a start, all the held back investment, house prices, etc bound to be increased growth
  • From the Huff post and confirmed by a bloke I work with who is a Labour party member.

    Labour’s stance has hardened significantly in the past few days, with Jeremy Corbyn writing to all members yesterday to explicitly say “we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote”.
    I'm also a Labour Party member (dissident wing) and received this from Jeremy which really says very little new:

    Dear sm

    The government is falling apart before our eyes. Their half-baked deal has unravelled, the Prime Minister has lost all authority and is clearly incapable of delivering a Brexit deal that commands even the support of her Cabinet - let alone Parliament and the people of our country.

    Our Party Conference agreed that this deal would be judged against our six tests, and if it failed to meet them we would vote against it.

    After two years of bungled negotiations, the government has produced a botched deal that breaches the Prime Minister's own red lines, does not meet our six tests and will leave the country in an indefinite halfway house without a real say.

    As I said in Parliament earlier today, people around the country will be feeling anxious about the industries they work in, the jobs they hold and the stability of this country.

    We do not accept that the choice is between the government's deal and 'no deal'. We will work across Parliament to stop a 'no deal' outcome. Labour has set out our alternative plan for a sensible Brexit that would work for all of our nations and regions, bring Parliament and the country together, support jobs and our economy and guarantee rights, standards and protections.

    If Parliament votes down this shambolic Tory deal — as seems likely — this will represent a loss of confidence in the government. In those circumstances the best outcome for the country is an immediate General Election that can sweep the Tories from power and deliver the Labour government this country desperately needs.

    If we cannot get a General Election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote.

    We are ready to lead, ready to deliver a sensible deal that works for all our regions and nations and ready to build a Britain that works for the many, not the few.

    Jeremy Corbyn
    Leader of the Labour Party

    What options are on the table Jeremy - and which one are you pursuing???
  • I attended a lecture last month by one of the accounting professions whereby the neutral opinion offered by one of the expert speakers was that (after explaining the pros and cons of the different bespoke deals already in place for certain countries (Canada, Swiss etc)), that a Norway style deal was the most likely option at that stage with a transition period thereafter that could effectively run for x number of years.

    People seem to be suggesting that there is no better deal possible than what May has proposed. Does that mean the Norway style option was not viable..... or are there possible alternatives out there still??

    To be honest what is being proposed in the deal for the next two years isn't a million miles away from the Norway option.
  • Think the key word in that Times heading is “but”

    Wages are already going up due to the fall in immigration. Do any of you Remainers really believe that is a bad thing?
    Cheap labour discourages innovation and maintains low productivity. Anybody believe that is a good thing?
  • If this sort of SPECIFIC information was available during the referendum campaign, I don't recall the likes of Cameron and Osborne strongly and continually emphasising it.

    Yes of course they said we would be worse off and they said we would be immediately worse off after the votes were cast and result known, but I'm not aware of them strongly emphasising these specific figures.

    The Remain campaign was about as effective as a Katrien Powerpoint presentation.
    But many, many people didn't vote on economics or at least not macro- economics like this.

    Some voted for no immigration/control of borders.

    Some for "taking back control"/democracy

    Some supposedly voted against the elites (like Johnson, JRM and Farage aren't all the epitome of elite).

    A few for being able to state aid and nationalise with a socialist state.

    You could show tabke to some leavers now and they will either reject it as more project fear or say they freedom and control are more important.

    How many we don't know but polls suggest not enough to win another referendum.
  • edited November 2018
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    Here is David Davis' guide




    What?
    Are we supposed to listen to him now?

    Only a couple of months ago he was a thick, stupid (the thickest minister ever, according to those on here who think they know) Tory moron.

    I'm so glad he changed so quickly, but is it ok to just ignore him now?
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    What?
    Are we supposed to listen to him now?
    Only a couple of months ago he was a thick, stupid (the thickest minister ever according to those who think they know) baby-eating Tory moron.
    I'm so glad he changed so quickly.
    Analysis given to Davis and yet the baby eating Tory moron prefers options 1 and 2.
  • <img src="" />

    What?
    Are we supposed to listen to him now?
    Only a couple of months ago he was a thick, stupid (the thickest minister ever according to those who think they know) baby-eating Tory moron.
    I'm so glad he changed so quickly.
    It was probably when he saw these figures that he did a runner😉
  • <img src="" />

    What?
    Are we supposed to listen to him now?
    Only a couple of months ago he was a thick, stupid (the thickest minister ever according to those who think they know) baby-eating Tory moron.
    I'm so glad he changed so quickly.
    Are you sticking up for him or are you saying he's thick and all that?
  • razil said:

    well the Remain score is bollox for a start, all the held back investment, house prices, etc bound to be increased growth
    Always worth rembering where we are in the investment league table - 138th in the world is not a good place to be - think Vauxhall Conference South
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gross_fixed_investment_as_percentage_of_GDP
  • Are you sticking up for him or are you saying he's thick and all that?
    Sorry, edited to make it clearer. I'm ignoring him, not believing either swing.
  • razil said:

    The fascinating but depressing interplay continues with Brexiteer cabinet members now seeking to persuade May to seek some amendment of the backstop.

    It will be very interesting if it happens what the EUs reaction will be to that.

    It will so be interesting if she resists, will the cabinet split again and then force a no confidence vote.

    On assumes part of this must happen today with the EU meeting tomorrow ?

    And all of this on a weekend with no Charlton in action

    Given our experience gained with Charlton we must all be the go to consultants when it comes to handling management disasters.
  • Here is David Davis' guide




    those figures may well be accurate but they are quite old now. also over what duration are they calculated, is this for the first year after the final decision of which option? What happens in year 2/3/4? this kind of stat is virtually useless without more information. it is simply the weaponising of stats without context to back up a point of view. Both sides are guilty of it.
  • We need to stop talking about a second referendum - if we have one it will be the third referendum. One of the positive features of democracy is that it allows people to change their minds.
  • Southbank said:

    Wages are already going up due to the fall in immigration. Do any of you Remainers really believe that is a bad thing?
    Cheap labour discourages innovation and maintains low productivity. Anybody believe that is a good thing?
    Has there actually been a fall in immigration? I thought there was just a swing towards non EU immigration.
    Higher wages indicate a shortage of labour which will result in more immigration whether we are in the EU or not!
  • Southbank said:

    The economic benefits of Brexit by a Remainer economist.

    Brexit will take a heavy toll, but could herald an economic rebirth

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-will-take-a-heavy-toll-but-could-herald-an-economic-rebirth-nd3sl8ksq

    Think the key word in that Times heading is “but”

    I'd say there are two key words of equal value: "will" and "could". So, even Brexiteers are conceding that Brexit will damage our economy. They a pitting the vague hope of a possibility against the agreed certainty of damage. That is not prudent decision making, it is the desperate last gasp gamble of the ideologically brainwashed. It is as frightening as it is pathetic. I am absolutely outraged that any politician would gamble on my country's future like that. That this has got so close to being a consideration, let alone a likelihood, is an absolute disgrace. This isn't the 3.45 at Lingfield, stop taking wild punts with our livelihoods.
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