Savings and Investments thread

It was pointed out in the Sunday Times this weekend that owners of 500 Fullers shares get 15% off food and drink in Fuller's pubs. As The Pilot is my pre-match pub then that's definitely one for me! It can go alongside the Chapel Down shares that get you up to 33% off! Is this a coherent investment strategy though?!

Fortune 82nd Minute said:

Rob7Lee said:

Bit late to the party (house moving) - but a bumper Month in that me, wife and eldest had £25, youngest £75 - and of course father in law £25.

Here's the FTSE100 with a few weeks to go;

Name	Level	Variance	% Variance
wwaddick	7340	2.95	0.04%
Daarrrzzettbum	7333	4.05	0.06%
PragueAddick	7350	12.95	0.18%
StrikerFirmani	7355	17.95	0.24%
Morboe	7312	25.05	0.34%
golfaddick	7375	37.95	0.52%
Pedro45	7297	40.05	0.55%
Bangkokaddick	7390	52.95	0.72%
Fortune 82nd Minute	7280	57.05	0.78%
blackpool72	7400	62.95	0.86%
RalphMilne	7415	77.95	1.06%
Redman	7255	82.05	1.12%
Killer Kish	7440	102.95	1.40%
cafc7-6htfc	7228	109.05	1.49%
Exiledin Manchester	7450	112.95	1.54%
Addick Addick	7220	117.05	1.60%
gunnessaddick	7458	120.95	1.65%
Housty	7466	128.95	1.76%
Hoof_it_up_to_benty	7495	157.95	2.15%
thecat	7175	162.05	2.21%
CAFCWest	7501	163.95	2.23%
Rob7Lee	7505	167.95	2.29%
Covered End	7512	174.95	2.38%
Thread Killer	7159	178.05	2.43%
meldrew66	7535	197.95	2.70%
WishIdStayedInThe Pub	7544	206.95	2.82%
Gary Poole	7574	236.95	3.23%
Salad	7100	237.05	3.23%
CharltonKerry	7594	256.95	3.50%
@TelMc32	7080	257.05	3.50%
Huskaris	7596	258.95	3.53%
holyjo	7612	274.95	3.75%
IdleHans	7634	296.95	4.05%
LargeAddick	7647	309.95	4.22%
valleynick66	7654	316.95	4.32%
MrOneLung	7654	316.95	4.32%
KentAddick	7676	338.95	4.62%
fat man on a moped	7681	343.95	4.69%
No.1 in South London	6985	352.05	4.80%
HardyAddick	7692	354.95	4.84%
Lonelynorthernaddick	7700	362.95	4.95%
bobmunro	7784	446.95	6.09%
oohaahmortimer	6767	570.05	7.77%
Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch	6500	837.05	11.41%

A few of the more optimistic predictions looking a bit poorly this morning! 

FTSE100 up again today, having started lower & bouncing around its opening level for most of the day.

Now standing at 7341.66.

FWIW I'm only 34 points or less than 0.5% away. Shame the comp doesn't end on xmas eve....

Santa rally has more legs through to the 31st, I reckon.  Governments' over-reaction to omicron being unwound.  The investment houses did all the calcs on the South Africa data two weeks ago, adjusted for demographics, vaccination rates, etc., and knew where this was going - it was only ever a case of how much damage governments would do in the mean time.

Just runaway inflation to worry about after that but if January earnings come though strongly, even those fears will be tempered.

PragueAddick said:

WishIdStayedinthePub said:

Santa rally has more legs through to the 31st, I reckon.  Governments' over-reaction to omicron being unwound.  The investment houses did all the calcs on the South Africa data two weeks ago, adjusted for demographics, vaccination rates, etc., and knew where this was going - it was only ever a case of how much damage governments would do in the mean time.

Just runaway inflation to worry about after that but if January earnings come though strongly, even those fears will be tempered.

Obviously it would overall be great for us all if what you have written there turns out to be correct, as regardless of the competition our investments will increas in value and we may finally be on our way out of the Covid nightmare.

But, and I'm sorry to be Eeeyorish about it, I think you might be putting slightly too much faith in the epidemiologistic resources within investment houses . I have heard several actual epidemiologists cautioning about interpreting the findings of these studies too quickly, because they as yet contain insufficient data about the older age-groups' reactions and particularly hospitalisations. It's just too early to obtain such datasets, they caution. So it was quite literally impossible for the investment houses to have accurately factored in that issue; and the key issue for government policy is trying to ensure their health system is not overwhelmed. 

You may well still be right that the Santa rally continues, because any more detailed data on older age groups may still not be ready next week. But I was chatting to my Swedish buddy last night and we agreed that the virus is brilliant at making fools of everyone around the world who becomes complacent and disrespects it. Right now that's what the Danes feel (his daughter is CPH based) because having done a superb job on jabbing everyone, they declared the epidemic over in October. Right now their infection rate is still way above the UK, and still rising. They feel like they've made prats of themselves on the world stage (something which never seems to bother our bigger bunch of prats).

I would be very happy to be proven over-pessimistic.... 

Don't apologies for being Eeyorish, Prague, I like a debate!

The reason I have more faith in the investment houses is that all they are interested in is the best way to make money.  There's no political agenda and they are experts at stripping out emotion and focusing on the data.  

Their data analysts will be technically a match for anything in government and generally better (source: my step son who runs a large data science team of PHDs in government with a massive attrition rate.). Epidemiological models are published and anyone vaguely competent as a data analyst can understand them and replicate them.  The problem has not been technical complexity of models or even volumes of data but the biases of people who then select scenarios to suit their agenda, particularly when they are now committed professionally to certain interpretations.  Multiplied by a hysterical press who have watched too many Hollywood zombie movies.

Unfortunately, the mystic megs of epidemiology have proved to be as accurate as weather forecasters and economists. 

Their predictions have been woeful and they're finally being called out.  Have a look at the Spectator's data graphs and just how poor their predictions have been. Dispute this, only two weeks ago they were threatening 6,000 deaths a day in the UK for Omicron, when India, with 20 times our population, nowhere near our quality of health service and much lower vaccination rates, peaked at 4,500 - and that was for delta!  Any statistician worth their salt with those large numbers can adjust for demographics. 

One of the reasons people like Ferguson want lockdowns is he can continue to say they work as, with any complex system, it's then (almost) impossible to build a control case.  He will argue anyway that people adjusted behaviour - but if that behaviour is based on irrational fear, it's not healthy but destructive process that does more harm than good.  They never show the data for the overall impact of lockdowns, yet it's clear that the cost is too high.  In my view they shouldn't lock down again until they can show that data, along the lines of an economic model showing that a policy has positive consequences overall.

I don't think there has ever been a virus that naturally becomes more transmissible and more lethal, because it's an inevitable result of evolutionary processes.  Spanish flu is amongst us but it no longer kills millions.  HIV never turned into an existential threat mostly for the same reason - any virus that kills too quickly doesn't get passed on and the ones that kill more slowly do, etc. over billions and trillions of cycles.  

Our intelligence allows us to load the evolutionary dice even further in our favour with vaccines, anti-virals and behavioural responses, so I'm not suggesting we let these things just rip through us.  But why assume that Omicron would be at least as bad as Delta and put around that it might even be worse, based on bottom up theories of mutations extrapolated to complex systems, which they should also know, NEVER work.  Despite better vaccination rates, better understanding of anti-virals, proof that most people's immune systems could cope with it anyway, etc, etc.. And yet we still need a lock down this year???

It's not just important for the economy but for a whole generation of kids' education and tens if not hundreds of thousands of heart and cancer patients just in this country that will die prematurely over the next couple of years because of the lockdown.  

And then there's the moral hazard of people starting to think, there's no point in getting vaccinated because it makes no difference ...

kentaddick said:

WishIdStayedinthePub said:

PragueAddick said:

WishIdStayedinthePub said:

Santa rally has more legs through to the 31st, I reckon.  Governments' over-reaction to omicron being unwound.  The investment houses did all the calcs on the South Africa data two weeks ago, adjusted for demographics, vaccination rates, etc., and knew where this was going - it was only ever a case of how much damage governments would do in the mean time.

Just runaway inflation to worry about after that but if January earnings come though strongly, even those fears will be tempered.

Obviously it would overall be great for us all if what you have written there turns out to be correct, as regardless of the competition our investments will increas in value and we may finally be on our way out of the Covid nightmare.

But, and I'm sorry to be Eeeyorish about it, I think you might be putting slightly too much faith in the epidemiologistic resources within investment houses . I have heard several actual epidemiologists cautioning about interpreting the findings of these studies too quickly, because they as yet contain insufficient data about the older age-groups' reactions and particularly hospitalisations. It's just too early to obtain such datasets, they caution. So it was quite literally impossible for the investment houses to have accurately factored in that issue; and the key issue for government policy is trying to ensure their health system is not overwhelmed. 

You may well still be right that the Santa rally continues, because any more detailed data on older age groups may still not be ready next week. But I was chatting to my Swedish buddy last night and we agreed that the virus is brilliant at making fools of everyone around the world who becomes complacent and disrespects it. Right now that's what the Danes feel (his daughter is CPH based) because having done a superb job on jabbing everyone, they declared the epidemic over in October. Right now their infection rate is still way above the UK, and still rising. They feel like they've made prats of themselves on the world stage (something which never seems to bother our bigger bunch of prats).

I would be very happy to be proven over-pessimistic.... 

Don't apologies for being Eeyorish, Prague, I like a debate!

The reason I have more faith in the investment houses is that all they are interested in is the best way to make money.  There's no political agenda and they are experts at stripping out emotion and focusing on the data.  

Their data analysts will be technically a match for anything in government and generally better (source: my step son who runs a large data science team of PHDs in government with a massive attrition rate.). Epidemiological models are published and anyone vaguely competent as a data analyst can understand them and replicate them.  The problem has not been technical complexity of models or even volumes of data but the biases of people who then select scenarios to suit their agenda, particularly when they are now committed professionally to certain interpretations.  Multiplied by a hysterical press who have watched too many Hollywood zombie movies.

Unfortunately, the mystic megs of epidemiology have proved to be as accurate as weather forecasters and economists. 

Their predictions have been woeful and they're finally being called out.  Have a look at the Spectator's data graphs and just how poor their predictions have been. Dispute this, only two weeks ago they were threatening 6,000 deaths a day in the UK for Omicron, when India, with 20 times our population, nowhere near our quality of health service and much lower vaccination rates, peaked at 4,500 - and that was for delta!  Any statistician worth their salt with those large numbers can adjust for demographics. 

One of the reasons people like Ferguson want lockdowns is he can continue to say they work as, with any complex system, it's then (almost) impossible to build a control case.  He will argue anyway that people adjusted behaviour - but if that behaviour is based on irrational fear, it's not healthy but destructive process that does more harm than good.  They never show the data for the overall impact of lockdowns, yet it's clear that the cost is too high.  In my view they shouldn't lock down again until they can show that data, along the lines of an economic model showing that a policy has positive consequences overall.

I don't think there has ever been a virus that naturally becomes more transmissible and more lethal, because it's an inevitable result of evolutionary processes.  Spanish flu is amongst us but it no longer kills millions.  HIV never turned into an existential threat mostly for the same reason - any virus that kills too quickly doesn't get passed on and the ones that kill more slowly do, etc. over billions and trillions of cycles.  

Our intelligence allows us to load the evolutionary dice even further in our favour with vaccines, anti-virals and behavioural responses, so I'm not suggesting we let these things just rip through us.  But why assume that Omicron would be at least as bad as Delta and put around that it might even be worse, based on bottom up theories of mutations extrapolated to complex systems, which they should also know, NEVER work.  Despite better vaccination rates, better understanding of anti-virals, proof that most people's immune systems could cope with it anyway, etc, etc.. And yet we still need a lock down this year???

It's not just important for the economy but for a whole generation of kids' education and tens if not hundreds of thousands of heart and cancer patients just in this country that will die prematurely over the next couple of years because of the lockdown.  

And then there's the moral hazard of people starting to think, there's no point in getting vaccinated because it makes no difference ...

Not to drag this away from savings and investments, but this is ridiculous. You make models in order to avoid them - those numbers have been avoided precisely because people have changed their behaviour due to the modelling. The modelling exists to say "if we don't change our behaviours, this is what it will look like", people see that and thinks "yikes, better put on a mask" - cases then dont reach those heights. If you look into the mathematics of the modelling it's sound, but doesn't account for human behaviour when they see a bad forecast, they naturally prepare for the worst.  

Yes - no different to people taking an umbrella with them when the forecast is for rain. If they forget and it is raining then prices for umbrellas go up!!

golfaddick said:

Back to the case in hand........

FTSE100 closed for the xmas break at 7372.1.

Just 2.9 points off my prediction. Shame the competition doesn't stop now as I would be buying you all a pint...😄

For the sake of argument, let's assume it does stop now.

Mine's a Guinness please.

kentaddick said:

still time for the gigachad megapump to 7676..

higher, higher!!

All still to play for; as it stands today......

	FTSE100 Level	7,372.10
Position	Name	Level	Variance	% Variance
	golfaddick	7375	2.9	0.04%
	StrikerFirmani	7355	17.1	0.23%
	Bangkokaddick	7390	17.9	0.24%
	PragueAddick	7350	22.1	0.30%
	blackpool72	7400	27.9	0.38%
	wwaddick	7340	32.1	0.44%
	Daarrrzzettbum	7333	39.1	0.53%
	RalphMilne	7415	42.9	0.58%
	Morboe	7312	60.1	0.82%
	Killer Kish	7440	67.9	0.92%
	Pedro45	7297	75.1	1.02%
	Exiledin Manchester	7450	77.9	1.06%
	gunnessaddick	7458	85.9	1.17%
	Fortune 82nd Minute	7280	92.1	1.25%
	Housty	7466	93.9	1.27%
	Redman	7255	117.1	1.59%
	Hoof_it_up_to_benty	7495	122.9	1.67%
	CAFCWest	7501	128.9	1.75%
	Rob7Lee	7505	132.9	1.80%
	Covered End	7512	139.9	1.90%
	cafc7-6htfc	7228	144.1	1.95%
	Addick Addick	7220	152.1	2.06%
	meldrew66	7535	162.9	2.21%
	WishIdStayedInThe Pub	7544	171.9	2.33%
	thecat	7175	197.1	2.67%
	Gary Poole	7574	201.9	2.74%
	Thread Killer	7159	213.1	2.89%
	CharltonKerry	7594	221.9	3.01%
	Huskaris	7596	223.9	3.04%
	holyjo	7612	239.9	3.25%
	IdleHans	7634	261.9	3.55%
	Salad	7100	272.1	3.69%
	LargeAddick	7647	274.9	3.73%
	valleynick66	7654	281.9	3.82%
	MrOneLung	7654	281.9	3.82%
	@TelMc32	7080	292.1	3.96%
	KentAddick	7676	303.9	4.12%
	fat man on a moped	7681	308.9	4.19%
	HardyAddick	7692	319.9	4.34%
	Lonelynorthernaddick	7700	327.9	4.45%
	No.1 in South London	6985	387.1	5.25%
	bobmunro	7784	411.9	5.59%
	oohaahmortimer	6767	605.1	8.21%
	Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch	6500	872.1	11.83%

Rob7Lee said:

All still to play for; as it stands today......

	FTSE100 Level	7,372.10
Position	Name	Level	Variance	% Variance
	golfaddick	7375	2.9	0.04%
	StrikerFirmani	7355	17.1	0.23%
	Bangkokaddick	7390	17.9	0.24%
	PragueAddick	7350	22.1	0.30%
	blackpool72	7400	27.9	0.38%
	wwaddick	7340	32.1	0.44%
	Daarrrzzettbum	7333	39.1	0.53%
	RalphMilne	7415	42.9	0.58%
	Morboe	7312	60.1	0.82%
	Killer Kish	7440	67.9	0.92%
	Pedro45	7297	75.1	1.02%
	Exiledin Manchester	7450	77.9	1.06%
	gunnessaddick	7458	85.9	1.17%
	Fortune 82nd Minute	7280	92.1	1.25%
	Housty	7466	93.9	1.27%
	Redman	7255	117.1	1.59%
	Hoof_it_up_to_benty	7495	122.9	1.67%
	CAFCWest	7501	128.9	1.75%
	Rob7Lee	7505	132.9	1.80%
	Covered End	7512	139.9	1.90%
	cafc7-6htfc	7228	144.1	1.95%
	Addick Addick	7220	152.1	2.06%
	meldrew66	7535	162.9	2.21%
	WishIdStayedInThe Pub	7544	171.9	2.33%
	thecat	7175	197.1	2.67%
	Gary Poole	7574	201.9	2.74%
	Thread Killer	7159	213.1	2.89%
	CharltonKerry	7594	221.9	3.01%
	Huskaris	7596	223.9	3.04%
	holyjo	7612	239.9	3.25%
	IdleHans	7634	261.9	3.55%
	Salad	7100	272.1	3.69%
	LargeAddick	7647	274.9	3.73%
	valleynick66	7654	281.9	3.82%
	MrOneLung	7654	281.9	3.82%
	@TelMc32	7080	292.1	3.96%
	KentAddick	7676	303.9	4.12%
	fat man on a moped	7681	308.9	4.19%
	HardyAddick	7692	319.9	4.34%
	Lonelynorthernaddick	7700	327.9	4.45%
	No.1 in South London	6985	387.1	5.25%
	bobmunro	7784	411.9	5.59%
	oohaahmortimer	6767	605.1	8.21%
	Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch	6500	872.1	11.83%

Damn, I am going backwards, not to worry it’s only my ego dented, FTSE climbing is good for my battered 2021 portfolio. I am not a holder but anyone note that placing today by DMTR, almost criminal. 

Seasonal regards all and hope the markets are better in 2022 👍

Exciting end to the year - didn't expect the FTSE to be this high after recent events.

The fact that England did not bring restrictions in to impact businesses will most likely be the reason for today's blue.

PragueAddick said:

mendonca said:

The fact that England did not bring restrictions in to impact businesses will most likely be the reason for today's blue.

Its always good for all of us who do this comp. to sometimes take a look at the 100 companies that make up the index and remind ourselves how little they represent  the sort of businesses who are affected short term by such restrictions. FTSE 250 is much more representative, but even those companies have a business perspective that stretches beyond “England”. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTSE_100_Index

There’s probably a global trader consensus that Omicron may not be all bad news. However pre-Covid it was also very common for the UK indices to drift upwards between Xmas and NY on very thin trading and for no good long-term reason. 

Of course I’m just being Mr Grumpy because I can see it slipping out of my grasp 😉 I dont think it will slip back now unless something serious happens like Putin testing if his tanks are all working.

The 250 was up by 1% today, whereas the 100 by around 0.6%. 

@ralphmilne is the current favourite....only three points out!