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Remaining 13 League Games - Points Predictor

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  • Starting from Saturday

    Northampton (a) - 1 point
    Cheltenham (a) - 3 points
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 3 points
    Wigan (h) - 1 point
    Exeter (a) - 1 point
    Stevenage (h) - 3 point
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 1 points
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 1 point

    Leaving us on 57 points
  • masicat said:
    We ALWAYS beat Portsmouth
    Away. 
  • edited February 28
    Croydon said:
    I think we'll lose to Derby but then win the following 3
    Oh ye of little faith! Also I notice from the match thread you’ve downgraded the next three matches to two wins . Crazy viewpoint 😁. Two or three wins coming up soon though will do for me 👍.
  • Prediction for our next five games:

    LLLBH
  • Surely we're going to win them all now?
    Believe!
  • Prediction for our next five games:

    LLLBH
    lol, lol, lol, behave?
  • edited February 28
    Pompey (h) - 3 points
    Derby (a) - 0 points
    Northampton (a) - 3 points
    Cheltenham (a) - 3 points
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 1 point
    Wigan (h) - 1 point
    Exeter (a) - 1 point
    Stevenage (h) - 3 point
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 1 point
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 3 points

    7 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses. 

    25 points. 58 season finish. 100 point club league 1 next season 👍🏻
    Well, well, well. It appears I have actually underestimated us
  • RedChaser said:
    Croydon said:
    I think we'll lose to Derby but then win the following 3
    Oh ye of little faith! Also I notice from the match thread you’ve downgraded the next three matches to two wins . Crazy viewpoint 😁. Two or three wins coming up soon though will do for me 👍.

    No reason we can’t win the next 3, I was just trying to not get carried away!
  • edited February 29
    Breaking up the games into should be losses, should be wins and flip a (three sided) coin.

    Two “should be wins” and “four should be losses” leaves seven draws - 13 points - 46 final tally.

    Pompey (h) - 0 point 
    Derby (a) - 0 points
    Northampton (a) - 1 point
    Cheltenham (a) - 1 point
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 1 points
    Wigan (h) - 1 points
    Exeter (a) - 1 points
    Stevenage (h) - 0 points
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 1 points
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 1 points

    We draw a lot of games (joint most in the entire division) but we likely won’t draw as many as 7 of the last 13 so you’d like to think that three or four of them will be turned into the wins we need and gives us breathing room to take a couple of unaccounted defeats.

    One point ahead of conservative expectation - conservative prediction moves up to 47.

    My optimistic prediction for the last 12 is DDWWWWDDDWWW - 60 points.
    Four points ahead of conservative prediction - final points prediction moves up to 50.

    Two points ahead of optimistic prediction - final points prediction moves up to 62.
  • So within a week every single person got their predictions wrong - way to go Charlton! 
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  • edited February 29
    se9addick said:
    So within a week every single person got their predictions wrong - way to go Charlton! 
    Has always been the same down the years. As I’ve said before the only thing you can expect from Charlton is the unexpected and especially over these last three games when you least expected it. Fingers crossed for the next three 🤞.
  • So on this page after we have beaten Derby i see 57points, and 58points predictions.

    Plus one in cheek 62points if we play at our best.

    Don’t know what people are putting in the coffee but think you better stick to tea.
  • edited February 29
    So on this page after we have beaten Derby i see 57points, and 58points predictions.

    Plus one in cheek 62points if we play at our best.

    Don’t know what people are putting in the coffee but think you better stick to tea.
    Agree they are maybe a bot optimistic but didnt you suggest 0 points from 3 games and we have 5?

    edit i checked and it was 0 from 2 and we have 4
  • No idea but I still think relegation or not will be a close thing. 
  • No idea but I still think relegation or not will be a close thing. 
    I can see things going to the last couple of games.
  • If the tune NJ is having this team now play to is CONSISTENT whether you are playing a team higher or lower in position, then I think we will be comfortably safe. If NJ cannot get the displays, effort, whatever, consistently out of them then yes there is a risk we will end up going to the wire. 

    I think NJ and coaches have it sussed will get the best out of us til season end and send an early message of intent for 2024-25. 
  • The problem we have is that we've gone into some tough games on paper full of drive and aggression and got some good results without too much pressure to get them. It'll be a different story against the teams below us. Real 6 pointers where we really should be trying to win but absolutely cannot lose. The Northampton game is huge because if we can win that we'll go into those games with a bit more momentum and hopefully a bit more belief. If we slip back and make the Derby win look like more of an anomaly the pressure on the Cheltenham and Fleetwood games in particular will be immense and these players haven't typically dealt well with that. Once we get through those pressure ties it's mostly games against teams around and (and hopefully by then below us) and we might be able to breathe a little bit.
  • So on this page after we have beaten Derby i see 57points, and 58points predictions.

    Plus one in cheek 62points if we play at our best.

    Don’t know what people are putting in the coffee but think you better stick to tea.
    Agree.

    Although I now think we should easily get to 48 points and probably more likely early 50's.

    I originally said we'd get 48 points & stay up on GD. Now I think we'd stay up by a few places & wont be too worried on the final day of the season. 
  • So on this page after we have beaten Derby i see 57points, and 58points predictions.

    Plus one in cheek 62points if we play at our best.

    Don’t know what people are putting in the coffee but think you better stick to tea.
    Agree they are maybe a bot optimistic but didnt you suggest 0 points from 3 games and we have 5?

    edit i checked and it was 0 from 2 and we have 4
    I did predict we would lose to Bolton ,Portsmouth , and Derby plus Northampton.

    Don’t think we are out of the woods just yet because of those extra points and Reading being deducted another 2.

    But that does help our situation without doubt.
  • I had us getting to 54 before the Portsmouth game. More confident in that now than I was then of doing that.
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  • So on this page after we have beaten Derby i see 57points, and 58points predictions.

    Plus one in cheek 62points if we play at our best.

    Don’t know what people are putting in the coffee but think you better stick to tea.
    Agree they are maybe a bot optimistic but didnt you suggest 0 points from 3 games and we have 5?

    edit i checked and it was 0 from 2 and we have 4
    What have you predicted?
  • Breaking up the games into should be losses, should be wins and flip a (three sided) coin.

    Two “should be wins” and “four should be losses” leaves seven draws - 13 points - 46 final tally.

    Pompey (h) - 0 point 
    Derby (a) - 0 points
    Northampton (a) - 1 point
    Cheltenham (a) - 1 point
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 1 points
    Wigan (h) - 1 points
    Exeter (a) - 1 points
    Stevenage (h) - 0 points
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 1 points
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 1 points

    We draw a lot of games (joint most in the entire division) but we likely won’t draw as many as 7 of the last 13 so you’d like to think that three or four of them will be turned into the wins we need and gives us breathing room to take a couple of unaccounted defeats.

    One point ahead of conservative expectation - conservative prediction moves up to 47.

    My optimistic prediction for the last 12 is DDWWWWDDDWWW - 60 points.
    Four points ahead of conservative prediction - final points prediction moves up to 50.

    Two points ahead of optimistic prediction - final points prediction moves up to 62.
    I said draw in both predictions above so remains 50 on the low end and 62 on the high end.
  • Conservative prediction moves up to 52

    Optimistic prediction stays at 62
  • My guess:

    Derby (a) - 0 points.                    WRONG
    Northampton (a) - 3 points.      WRONG
    Cheltenham (a) - 0 point.           WRONG
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 1 point
    Wigan (h) - 1 points
    Exeter (a) - 3 points
    Stevenage (h) - 0 points
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 0 points
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 1 point

    Would leave us on 49 points.  Touch and go and probably not enough. Turn the Cheltenham game from 0 points to 1 and we would likely stay up. 


    Hopefully my Carlisle prediction will be correct!
  • My guess:

    Derby (a) - 0 points.                    WRONG
    Northampton (a) - 3 points.      WRONG
    Cheltenham (a) - 0 point.           WRONG
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 1 point
    Wigan (h) - 1 points
    Exeter (a) - 3 points
    Stevenage (h) - 0 points
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 0 points
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 1 point

    Would leave us on 49 points.  Touch and go and probably not enough. Turn the Cheltenham game from 0 points to 1 and we would likely stay up. 


    Hopefully my Carlisle prediction will be correct!
    Even a broken clock is right twice a day 😉
  • Sage said:
    Pompey (h) - 3 points
    Derby (a) - 0 points
    Northampton (a) - 1 point
    Cheltenham (a) - 3 points
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 1 point
    Wigan (h) - 1 point
    Exeter (a) - 3 points
    Stevenage (h) - 1 point
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 1 point
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 1 point

    5 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses = 21 points

    54 points in total.

    Our win against Shrewsbury in our last home game of the season keeps us up and sends them down.
    We’re 1 point better off than where I had us at the moment.

    With the way we’re playing/fighting, I revise my points total prediction to 57. I think we’ll win one of our home games against Wigan or Stevenage. The rest remains.

    A total of 26 points from our last 16 of the season under Jones as manager. 6 wins, 8 draws, 2 losses.
  • Starting from Saturday

    Northampton (a) - 1 point
    Cheltenham (a) - 3 points
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 3 points
    Wigan (h) - 1 point
    Exeter (a) - 1 point
    Stevenage (h) - 3 point
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 1 points
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 1 point

    Leaving us on 57 points
    100% so far  :)
  • Pompey (h) - 3 points
    Derby (a) - 1 point
    Northampton (a) - 3 points
    Cheltenham (a) - 3 points
    Carlisle (h) - 3 points
    Fleetwood (a) - 1 point
    Wigan (h) - 3 points
    Exeter (a) - 1 point
    Stevenage (h) - 3 points
    Barnsley (h) - 0 points
    Cambridge (a) - 3 points
    Shrewsbury (h) - 3 points
    Wycombe (a) - 1 point

    This is the kind of run we need to go on.

    28 points


    2 points off my prediction so far.
  • I don't think I was optimistic enough a few games a go, so I've had another bash at predicting our results. Tried to be as honest as I can with my predictions for us:


    Wouldn’t that be something?
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