Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

cafc_se7 said:

I genuinely believe this thread now needs to be changed to can we make the automatics! 

The answer to that one is no.

43 points from the last 17 games (13/14 wins) to get to 90 and even that probably won’t be enough the way Birmingham and Wycombe are going this season.

Chizz said:

STOP THE COUNT 

For those who are interested this is the remaining strength of schedule for the current top 10 - Highest number equals in theory easiest remaining opponents.

Birmingham - 14.42
Reading - 14
Huddersfield - 13.76
Stockport - 13.06
Barnsley - 12.87
Charlton - 12.82
Bolton - 12.31
Wrexham - 12.29
Leyton Orient - 11.888
Wycombe - 11.882

In terms of games against each other, out of a possible 18 games against fellow top 10 sides, this is what we each have remaining:

Wycombe - 8
Charlton - 7
Leyton Orient - 7
Wrexham - 7
Barnsley - 6
Birmingham - 6
Bolton - 6
Huddersfield - 6
Stockport - 5
Reading - 4

Callumcafc said:

cafc_se7 said:

I genuinely believe this thread now needs to be changed to can we make the automatics! 

The answer to that one is no.

43 points from the last 17 games (13/14 wins) to get to 90 and even that probably won’t be enough the way Birmingham and Wycombe are going this season.

I’m not saying it is likely but the playoffs is absolutely in our hands! 

Last season we kept 5 clean sheets in 46 matches (11%) whereas this year we've already had 13 clean sheets in 29 matches (45%).

Player / clean sheets / games started / percentage of clean sheets:

Jones -       12 / 22 / 55%
Gillesphey -12 / 23 / 52%
AMB -           8 / 16 / 50%
Docherty -  11 / 23 / 48% 
A. Mitchell -11 / 25 / 44%
Edwards -   10 / 23 / 43%
Coventry -  11 / 27 / 41%
  
When we were champions in 2011-12 we kept 20 clean sheets (44%). In 2018-19 when we finished 3rd it was 17 (37%). NJ's previous successes have been built on the back of a solid defence so even if we don't go up this season, providing we keep the this squad together (albeit lose the few that are surplus to requirements and sign a couple of players to give us that extra dimension going forward), we should be one of the three or four favourites to go up next season. 

ElfsborgAddick said:

I think the away games we have left will see we get 6th spot at best.

If we think we can get promoted (because merely getting to the play offs ultimately counts for nothing) then we have to believe we can beat any other team. 

ForeverAddickted said:

Think the automatics is still a lot to ask for... If the gap comes down some more then I'll start to dream, but the top four have tended to be very consistent over the course of the season so far.

Think the gap is too big, and there arent enough games to bring that sort of gap down.

Two months ago the gap was ‘too big’ to catch 6th place so moving up a few more places could be done particularly when you take a look at the goal differences above and below us. No team has a goal difference greater than the number of games they’ve played which tends to indicate they’re having to battle for the points each week. There could be a few iffy runs stored up for those teams above which we can whittle down the points gap if we can continue our run.

Wrong thread!!!

It’s up to us now. If we can maintain the performance level of the last 5 games we will be fine. I doubt many clubs will be relishing playing us at the moment

SouthWest_Addicks said:

Only 1 win for Huddersfield in last 8 matches. Their terrible form has allowed the rest of the chasing pack catch them up, which is a positive, because Stockport are starting to hit top form with 5 wins in a row.

For the first time I believe we will make top 6. 

Their drop off in form is not coming at a good time. I thought that with Taylor and Charles signing in January they were going to kick on and potentially challenge Wycombe for second but they seem a mess right now.

Taylor is out until March, their Dutch left back who only just signed for them potentially needs surgery and one of their strikers is out for the season. Add to that Dion Charles still hasn't scored a goal.

2 tricky away games for them next at Barnsley and Shrewsbury so they could be out of the top 6 soon.

I'd take that, love to face Orient in the final, or beating Wrexham would be pretty satisfying too

valleynick66 said:

ElfsborgAddick said:

I think the away games we have left will see we get 6th spot at best.

If we think we can get promoted (because merely getting to the play offs ultimately counts for nothing) then we have to believe we can beat any other team. 

Agreed, although the play-offs can become a lottery, teams can fold under the cup final pressure it brings.

I think we have too much to do to catch teams like Barnsley with the games remaining......wait........that was the view just a few weeks ago!!! Maybe predicting the autos is a step too far will age as badly!

supaclive said:

Callumcafc said:

Not a good day at the office. If it was a 10-15% chance before today, it drops by a couple of percentage points.

It was 0% today
It's -2% now

Callum when do you learn?!

Is it still -2%? :-)

Callumcafc said:

Four points off it with a game in hand and still 60+ points up for grabs.

Next five
Shrewsbury (H)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Blackpool (A)
Stevenage (H)
Peterborough (H)

We could be right in the mix by Valentine’s Day.

This 32 year old kid knows nothing…