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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday
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If they keep current form up, Burton won't be in a relegation fight last game of season, which will help.Callumcafc said:Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.1 -
And in that time they also knocked Derby out of the FA Cup and led Man City for about 55 minutes in the next round.Callumcafc said:
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palarsehater said:think we need to win 9 from 15 and 1 of those has to come against Leyton orient,
below are fixtures with teams current league position.
Exeter H 17th
Orient A 6th
Barnsley H 11th
Stockport A 4th
Crawley A 22nd
Wigan H 16th
Pboro A 20th
Hudds H 5th
Mansfield A 15th
Lincoln H 10th
Cambridge A 24th
Northampton H 19th
Wycombe A 2nd
Wrexham A 3rd
Burton H 21st
looking at that its pretty bleak as not only do we play 4 of the top 6 currently but also a few down the bottom that are fighting for survival, as much as people say brum a was a free hit i dont agree should be trying to win every league game.
if i had to pick 9 wins out of that i would go
exeter h
barnsley h
crawley a
wigan h
pboro a
hudds h
cambridge a
northampton h
burton h
That does look achievable.... but
1) assumes that we only need 75 points when it could be more this season
2) some of the wins will have to be against the main competitors for 3rd-6th to deprive them of points as several of them are performing well and therefore likely to achieve more than 75
Whilst our form is good, some of the others (L Orient Stockport) is better.
TTTop20 highlighted Stockport have achieved 1.9 points per game over the last 3 and a half seasons as they have progressed up the leagues.ie they have winning habits.
I think we have to hope that Wrexham stutter, Huddersfield recent wins are a false dawn and Orient become unstuck with their next 3/4(Bolton away,Birmingham away, us Home , Rotherham away) games and lose confidence for the rest of the run -in.
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Glad you have that much faith.Callumcafc said:Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team.
Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games.
Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.3 -
9 wins would give us 77 points.KingKinsella said:palarsehater said:think we need to win 9 from 15 and 1 of those has to come against Leyton orient,
below are fixtures with teams current league position.
Exeter H 17th
Orient A 6th
Barnsley H 11th
Stockport A 4th
Crawley A 22nd
Wigan H 16th
Pboro A 20th
Hudds H 5th
Mansfield A 15th
Lincoln H 10th
Cambridge A 24th
Northampton H 19th
Wycombe A 2nd
Wrexham A 3rd
Burton H 21st
looking at that its pretty bleak as not only do we play 4 of the top 6 currently but also a few down the bottom that are fighting for survival, as much as people say brum a was a free hit i dont agree should be trying to win every league game.
if i had to pick 9 wins out of that i would go
exeter h
barnsley h
crawley a
wigan h
pboro a
hudds h
cambridge a
northampton h
burton h
That does look achievable.... but
1) assumes that we only need 75 points when it could be more this season
2) some of the wins will have to be against the main competitors for 3rd-6th to deprive them of points as several of them are performing well and therefore likely to achieve more than 75
Whilst our form is good, some of the others (L Orient Stockport) is better.
TTTop20 highlighted Stockport have achieved 1.9 points per game over the last 3 and a half seasons as they have progressed up the leagues.ie they have winning habits.
I think we have to hope that Wrexham stutter, Huddersfield recent wins are a false dawn and Orient become unstuck with their next 3/4(Bolton away,Birmingham away, us Home , Rotherham away) games and lose confidence for the rest of the run -in.
77 points would've got you into the play offs in every season apart from 1 since 2010. The one season was 21-22 when Wycombe were 6th with an incredible 83 points. Plymouth in 7th got 80.1 -
Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!4
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Given some of their recent performances, I’ll think they’ll be shitting themselves faced with that.CAFC_boi said:Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!0 -
WDWWDDCAFC_boi said:Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!0 -
Were you trying to spell Window?golfaddick said:
WDWWDDCAFC_boi said:Just checked Wrexham’s fixtures and in March they have: Bolton, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Reading, Wycombe and Stockport in that order, that’s a league one equivalent of a ‘month of death’. Suddenly that 8 point gap doesn’t seem so insurmountable - perhaps we’ll be thanking Leyton Orient for beating them last night after all!
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Another 28 points needed. So either....
9 wins and a draw
OR
8 wins & 4 draws.
If we are goung to lose 3 or 4 matches they would be better off coming against Crawley & Exeter than against Orient & Huddersfield.
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Bit surprised to hear this criticism after the way we’ve been performing since Northampton. And our bench seems quite strong to me with Gilbert /Berry, Mitchell plus a host of strikers on there.Lewis Coaches said:
Glad you have that much faith.Callumcafc said:Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team.
Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games.
Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.0 -
Lots of strikers on the bench, but how many goals have they actually scored?JamesSeed said:
Bit surprised to hear this criticism after the way we’ve been performing since Northampton. And our bench seems quite strong to me with Gilbert /Berry, Mitchell plus a host of strikers on there.Lewis Coaches said:
Glad you have that much faith.Callumcafc said:Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team.
Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games.
Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.1 -
Will be twists and turns from now until the end of the season. We have as good chance as anyone. Orient and Wycombe are the real surprise packages this year. I still think we can sneak play offs.1
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Would you have more confidence in turning those draws into wins if we still had Edun, REG and Allan Campbell as cover?Lewis Coaches said:
Glad you have that much faith.Callumcafc said:Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team.
Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games.
Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.There’s a risk we start picking up injuries, but depth at this level means ordinary players like those three.
Keeping our best players fit is key, rather than having several mediocre players to call upon. That’ll be the same for most clubs at this level, unless they spend a lot on their squads.3 -
I only really get bothered by other results towards the end of the season when they mean something. Now, yes teams can go on good runs and bad runs but the thing you look at and should look at is your points target. I think that target should be between 75 and 77 points and something around that will see us in the play offs. That hasn't changed from this time last week IMO.4
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Being in Feb and still having something to play for is a rare treat for us! Even if we don't get playoffs/go up I think we are fairly well set for next season. Don't need wholesale changes for once and 3/4 of real quality could have us challenging for Top 2 perhaps. Fingers crossed Luton, Plymouth & Derby come down as I think that's a 3 that aren't guarenteed to bounce straight back. If Cardiff, Hull or Stoke come down I think they'd smash the league next season.4
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Why do you feel that way? That’d be 65pts with eight other games to play.Lewis Coaches said:
Glad you have that much faith.Callumcafc said:Still saying 75 is the target but it may end up being closer to 77 or 78.That means finding 27 or 28 points from the last 15 games. We have 28 points from our previous 14 games going back to Crawley.
Seven home games & eight away games left.
Home form will be critical - to make our path reasonable, we have to win at least five of those seven (65pts) and it could come down to Burton at home on 3rd May. We can do this, we have won six home games in a row since Christmas and shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
That leaves 12 or 13 points to find from eight away games: either four wins or three wins and three draws.
I feel if we only win five home games and lose the other two The game is up with the play offs.
End of this season will see us looking back on the lost points during first half of season when Nathan didn’t have a clue over his best team.
Also between now and end of season will see too many drawn games.
Trust I am wrong , but no depth in squad cheers Nathan.1 -
In respect of the relative meaning of results and our chances one can check the bookies odds, or there are two xG sites which make end of season predictions: opta analyst & footballxg.com .MuttleyCAFC said:I only really get bothered by other results towards the end of the season when they mean something. Now, yes teams can go on good runs and bad runs but the thing you look at and should look at is your points target. I think that target should be between 75 and 77 points and something around that will see us in the play offs. That hasn't changed from this time last week IMO.
Both of those project us to finish 7th on around 73 points. Opta Analyst gives us a 35-40% chance of making it into the top six. Obviously this picture will change after every round of games, but isn't it great to be in the frame for a change?
The forthcoming game against Leyton Orient could seriously change our chances.1 -
Massive three games coming up, 7/9 points put us in a strong position1
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A Charlton win and none of the top 6 win - a good day!4
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Cant see anyone running away from us in the Play-Offs now, nor can I see doing similar, think apart from Birmingham and probably Wycombe, it'll be something that'll be decided down to the last game of the season.0
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Wigan v Huddersfield and Birmingham v Orient in midweek7
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Crawley vs Charlton on 11th March for context, as that'll the game we catch up with them on, in terms of the amount of games played.Callumcafc said:Wigan v Huddersfield and Birmingham v Orient in midweek2 -
Five points between 3rd and 8th. It’s suddenly looking like nothing is guaranteed for anyone currently in a playoff spot.9
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Our goal difference is creeping up, which illustrates how good our form as been. Won’t do any harm if we can close that gap to the rest of the top six as it could become significant with things so tight.8
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Yeah, since that Crawley game barely anyone has improved their goal difference as much as much as us - though don’t tell Golfie.Exiled_Addick said:Our goal difference is creeping up, which illustrates how good our form as been. Won’t do any harm if we can close that gap to the rest of the top six as it could become significant with things so tight.
Very very very big 3 games coming up. Last time we played orient they played us off the park - let’s see how much we have improved since then.
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Wycombe and Wrexham away then Burton at home being our last three games, I can see those two aways being our downfall and we'll be going into the Burton game outside of the play-offs relying on many permutations.I'll say that we'll miss out.4
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22 more points, or 6 wins and 4 draws will get us to 75 points, which will probably be enough but might be tight and would leave a greater risk that it comes down to goal difference.25 points, or 7 wins and 4 draws, is likely to get us home safely and reduces the risk of goal difference coming into play.80 points or more probably gets us 5th or higher and, theoretically, an easier semi final opponent. Maybe home advantage in the second leg if we can make it to 4th.
Games to come against sides currently in the bottom half of the table (8):
- Home: Wigan, Lincoln, Northampton, Burton.
- Away: Crawley, Peterborough, Mansfield, Cambridge.
and vs. current top half teams (6):
- Home: Barnsley, Huddersfield.
- Away: Orient, Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham
Now, it’s League One and we are Charlton so things are never this simple, but if we can win 7 of those 8 “easier” games and draw the other, then we could, theoretically, get to 78 points without having to win any of those tougher looking fixtures and needing to pick up just 3 points from those 6 games. Win all 8 and we’d be on 77 points and might not need a single point from the 6 tougher fixtures.
Obviously the more points we can take off, particularly, the likes or Orient, Stockport, Barnsley, and Huddersfield the better and perhaps the lower the points target becomes. The way we are playing right now, I would not bet against us picking up some decent points in some of those fixtures, but the point is we’ve now put ourselves in a position where it isn’t essential we do that and things are very much in our own hands.
For that reason I don’t want the significance of the Orient game to become overblown. I thought that happened a bit vs. Birmingham and we played the occasion more than the opponent for a chunk of the game which was damaging to our performance. Saturday is a great opportunity but it doesn’t define the rest of our season and if we lose there is plenty of time and opportunity to recover. Even a point would be a good step towards our goal.18 -
Another home win ticked off. Going to be crucial that we keep picking up the points at the Valley - takes a lot of pressure off of away games.8
