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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday
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You always, always want your rivals to draw with each other. It’s only two points on the board rather than 3 and you can’t second guess future results.MuttleyCAFC said:If we win tomorrow and Wycombe draw with Wrexham, that will put us 3 points away from both. All ifs and buts I know but we are not far away. Looking at Wycombe's run in, I wouldn't mind them winning.7 -
Halts a bit of momentum and belief as well - at this end of the season a lot of it is all about psychology.jimmymelrose said:
You always, always want your rivals to draw with each other. It’s only two points on the board rather than 3 and you can’t second guess future results.MuttleyCAFC said:If we win tomorrow and Wycombe draw with Wrexham, that will put us 3 points away from both. All ifs and buts I know but we are not far away. Looking at Wycombe's run in, I wouldn't mind them winning.2 -
Just generally, but a draw needs to be followed by a win when you are around the top. The Stockport point became a very good one because we beat Crawley.4
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The process now is incredibly simple and complete! The management and players have established an incredible run of form since 6th December. The return of injured players, dropping off others, together with new positions for Docherty and Small have all contributed.letthegoodtimesroll said:
Careful, you are in danger of over thinking things and over complicating it and will only give yourself stress if the other result doesn’t go exactly our way and both teams don’t drop points. The process is actually very simple, we just need to keep up the momentum we’ve already had and let the others worry about us. All we need to know is if we win then at least one of those teams will start to go into meltdown.MuttleyCAFC said:If we win tomorrow and Wycombe draw with Wrexham, that will put us 3 points away from both. All ifs and buts I know but we are not far away. Looking at Wycombe's run in, I wouldn't mind them winning.
Today the challenge is to maintain focus and consistency.
At the same time we fans can sit back and enjoy! Especially the Huddersfield game when we might cement our top six berth and knock them out of contention.
In short, two prediction sites both have us finishing roughly fourth on 79 or 80 points. Obviously that might change, but we're in the same kinda place as six years ago.0 -
The problem with prediction sites and indeed bookies is that a win changes it positively and a defeat negatively. You might as well just look at the table.3
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Fortress Valley!!!Addick Addict said:With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:
Huddersfield (4)
Barnsley (5) - Won
Lincoln (12) -
Exeter (14) Won
Stevenage (16) Won
Wigan (17) - Won
Bristol Rovers (18) Won
Peterborough (19) Won
Northampton (20) -
Shrewsbury (22) Won
Burton (23) -
9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.2 -
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Dropped only 4 points at home since early December and the last time we failed to win at home was 4th January.Addick Addict said:
Fortress Valley!!!Addick Addict said:With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:
Huddersfield (4)
Barnsley (5) - Won
Lincoln (12) -
Exeter (14) Won
Stevenage (16) Won
Wigan (17) - Won
Bristol Rovers (18) Won
Peterborough (19) Won
Northampton (20) -
Shrewsbury (22) Won
Burton (23) -
9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.1 -
Mate sent me this earlier when we were 2up…
Wow, on Sky they just said since Jan 21st Charlton have picked up more points than any other team in England…
is this correct,if so blimey 👏👏👏15 -
Five points confirmed behind 2nd now... Cant get greater than that within the next week now, whereas it could have been nine points going into next Saturday had Wycombe won today, and Tuesday!!
Wycombe and Wrexham... Be VERY scared...
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You adding the point for goal difference bothers me no end. :-)ForeverAddickted said:Six points confirmed behind 2nd now... Cant get greater than that within the next week now, whereas it could have been nine points going into next Saturday had Wycombe won today, and Tuesday!!
Wycombe and Wrexham... Be VERY scared...1 -
Changed it to 5-pts...Callumcafc said:
You adding the point for goal difference bothers me no end. :-)ForeverAddickted said:Six points confirmed behind 2nd now... Cant get greater than that within the next week now, whereas it could have been nine points going into next Saturday had Wycombe won today, and Tuesday!!
Wycombe and Wrexham... Be VERY scared...
My inability to add up, using my fingers and toes lets me down again
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With results today and Wrexham playing Stockport next weekend, now become a four horse race for second.1
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The Race for Second... Fixtures over the next week
Not sure why Wycombe arent playing on Saturday?
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I think Wrexham and Wycombe’s run ins are just too easy. Apart from when they play us, obviously.1
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Wycombe end with Bolton, Us, Orient, Stockport... thats not easy.Uboat said:I think Wrexham and Wycombe’s run ins are just too easy. Apart from when they play us, obviously.10 -
Whatever happens elsewhere, should we win our final nine games, it is extremely unlikely that we won't be promoted automatically. It really is in our hands and the worst thing we could do, as I've said before, is to settle for draws right now. Look at Reading for an example of how draws are dropped points at this stage of the season - they are unbeaten in their last 10 games that have produced 18 points (no less than 6 draws) whereas, in the same number of games, we aren't unbeaten but have picked up 5 more points than them.
The only exception to that might be if we get to the Wycombe and Wrexham matches and are above them both at that time.4 -
Confident that we will make the play offs, but not top 2. I expect us to drop points over the next 6 weeks but should be able to get 78-80 points come what may. Hopefully we'll get more like 82-84. The last 2 away games are going to be massive if there are still just a few points in it.3
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In a great position to finish in top 6. 6 points clear of Bolton with a very healthy goal difference. Would be delighted if top 2 is a possibility come Wycombe, but would settle for us creating a gap between 5th and ensuring we have the second leg at The Valley.1
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Reminder we haven’t won 4 on the bounce yet this season. To suddenly go 11 straight wins would be insane form.Addick Addict said:Whatever happens elsewhere, should we win our final nine games, it is extremely unlikely that we won't be promoted automatically. It really is in our hands and the worst thing we could do, as I've said before, is to settle for draws right now. Look at Reading for an example of how draws are dropped points at this stage of the season - they are unbeaten in their last 10 games that have produced 18 points (no less than 6 draws) whereas, in the same number of games, we aren't unbeaten but have picked up 5 more points than them.
The only exception to that might be if we get to the Wycombe and Wrexham matches and are above them both at that time.7 -
Minimum 7 wins needed for autos, including Wrexham at their place.1
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Ok so 79 predicted by golfie. If one of the super optimists can give their estimate we can average them out to get realistic total.golfaddick said:Confident that we will make the play offs, but not top 2. I expect us to drop points over the next 6 weeks but should be able to get 78-80 points come what may. Hopefully we'll get more like 82-84. The last 2 away games are going to be massive if there are still just a few points in it.3 -
Just after posting I had more of think about it & reckon we should get into the 80's. Having 66 points now you would like to think we'd win 5 of our last 9 games & draw a couple. But we havent had a stumble since we lost to Rotherham & we all know that it doesnt take much to go 2 or 3 games without winning. So I reckon a minimum of 80 points but looking more like 82/83.Scoham said:
Ok so 79 predicted by golfie. If one of the super optimists can give their estimate we can average them out to get realistic total.golfaddick said:Confident that we will make the play offs, but not top 2. I expect us to drop points over the next 6 weeks but should be able to get 78-80 points come what may. Hopefully we'll get more like 82-84. The last 2 away games are going to be massive if there are still just a few points in it.1 -
I think we'll get something around 89-pts, so seven wins and two draws.
For context... the draws; Peterborough and Wrexham - Maybe 87-pts with another draw coming at Wycombe, or at home to Huddersfield0 -
Callumcafc said:It’s a funny coincidence that six years ago under Bowyer, after 35 games played, we were also 5th and also had 60 points.
The major difference is the points totals of the teams around us.
Wycombe and Wrexham have an equal number of points to Sunderland in 2019 - with Sunderland in 2019 having played one fewer game than both of them.
We finished three points above Sunderland and above Portsmouth on goal difference (by one goal).
Automatics is still doable but will likely require winning 9 of our last 11 matches and then possibly relying on goal difference swings. It’s actually in our favour that we still have to play both Wycombe and Wrexham.2019
2025
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I reckon 87 as well. 7 wins 2 defeats. And funnily enough I don't think the two defeats will be games many would expect we would lose.4
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People were saying the very same thing about us making the playoffs at one time. Had we not given up a two goal lead against Blackpool that would have been 7 wins on the bounce. Equally, if someone had suggested after the Mansfield game that we would pick up 42 points from the next 18 matches (that's, pro rata, 107 points over the course of a season) then people would be calling for the men in white coats.Exiled_Addick said:
Reminder we haven’t won 4 on the bounce yet this season. To suddenly go 11 straight wins would be insane form.Addick Addict said:Whatever happens elsewhere, should we win our final nine games, it is extremely unlikely that we won't be promoted automatically. It really is in our hands and the worst thing we could do, as I've said before, is to settle for draws right now. Look at Reading for an example of how draws are dropped points at this stage of the season - they are unbeaten in their last 10 games that have produced 18 points (no less than 6 draws) whereas, in the same number of games, we aren't unbeaten but have picked up 5 more points than them.
The only exception to that might be if we get to the Wycombe and Wrexham matches and are above them both at that time.
It is, literally, to coin the well-worn cliche, one game at a time. It probably won't take anything like 11 straight wins but if we go in with the attitude before we play those final three games that "a point will do" then the chances are that we won't go up automatically and will have to go through that agony of enduring three more games.5 -
Not really sure why they’re having a playoffs this year, surely we should just be promoted now?4
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We will struggle to make the top 2 but 6 points and a better goal difference of 13 on Bolton is looking good for the play-offs with 9 games to go.
We would've to win at Wrexham and draw or win at Wycombe and that's look tough.
If I was manager I would convince the players that they can still get autos but as a fan getting 6 points back on Wrexham is a very tall order.
Fantastic results over the last 15 matches but it's a shame the injuries to Jones and Ramsey caused CAFC to be so mediocre over the first half of the season and we just didn't or couldn't use the width of the pitch.
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