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World Cup 2026 - USA/Canada/Mexico

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  • MrOneLung
    MrOneLung Posts: 27,050
    Because the two statements are not linked

    They are individual stats
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 64,176
    Yeah obviously if we got a South American side in pot 2 then the pot 3 probabilities would be redistributed to others as Paraguay would drop to 0%.

    Would massively up the chances of Panama and other sides like Scotland.
  • MrOneLung
    MrOneLung Posts: 27,050
    edited November 28
    Anyone got a draw simulator that now includes the top 4 seeds being kept apart 
  • cafctom
    cafctom Posts: 11,389
    edited November 28
    Got an email today from the England Supporters Travel Club confirming that people looking to go to the knockout games (including the Final at about $2,500 minimum) will need to pay FIFA for such tickets in February - even without the knowledge about whether England will even make it that far.

    You get it refunded back to you if they get knocked out, but of course that comes with a fee!

    And its also been confirmed that the supporters club tickets are likely to be up in the gods (as the most expensive ones will be closer to the pitch). So no proper away end behind the goal.

    I'm planning on going out there for the Group Stages and have also made plans for the Final in case we make it. But the whole thing is an absolute nightmare logistically to plan. 

    Complete opposite to Qatar where I managed 15 games in 10 days and didn't travel more than an hour from my hotel. 

    I'm thinking of using Chicago as a hub, purely because it is so well connected for domestic flights and the fact that its not a host city (so it might not sting so much price wise). But even just doing what I plan to do will easily cost around 6-8k if doing it as cheap as possible.

    Thankfully we have a UK tournament in 2028. 
  • jimmymelrose
    jimmymelrose Posts: 9,848
    TelMc32 said:
    Chunes said:
    From BBC Sport: 

    "Cristiano Ronaldo will be able to play for Portugal in their opening game at next summer's World Cup finals despite his red card against the Republic of Ireland.

    Violent conduct normally carries a three-match ban but Ronaldo has had the second and third matches suspended for a year."
    What a ****ing joke. How much worse can things get with FIFA?
    How long have you got? 

    Below was posted up on Substack this morning. It’s a screenshot from the official FIFA resale site. $105 tickets being touted now for $1,200!!!  From a piece I read before, I understand that FIFA take a 15% fee from the seller and another 15% from the buyer!  It’s just one huge grift 🤬





    So let’s be clear: FIFA are profiting from ticket touting. Do I misunderstand something here? Are they really that big a bunch of crooks?
  • jimmymelrose
    jimmymelrose Posts: 9,848


    Posted by a user on Reddit who ran 1 million World Cup draw simulations.

    England’s most likely Pot 2 opponent: Uruguay / Colombia / Ecuador

    England’s most likely Pot 3 opponent: Paraguay / Panama

    England’s most likely Pot 4 opponent: Iraq / Bolivia / Suriname
    How can our most likely Pot 3 opponent be Paraguay then, if our Pot 2 opponent comes from South America
    I think that you’d have to cancel Paraguay out if we drew one of those 3 most likely Pot 2 teams. If however we drew, for example, Japan (being only 4% less likely) from Pot 2 then Paraguay from Pot 3 would be accepted.
    Anyway, we’re bound to get a boring but tough European team from Pot 2 (only 3% less likely) . France hopefully will get Switzerland from Pot 2.


  • paulsturgess
    paulsturgess Posts: 3,943
    How the fuck is this legal

    so FIFA will probably have sth like $1.15bn worth of money for final tickets alone (12,000 x 2,000$ x 48 countries) in their banks accounts for 6 months 

    when 1.10bn$ of those will definitively be refunded 

    and that’s just the final

  • cafctom
    cafctom Posts: 11,389
    edited November 30
    How the fuck is this legal

    so FIFA will probably have sth like $1.15bn worth of money for final tickets alone (12,000 x 2,000$ x 48 countries) in their banks accounts for 6 months 

    when 1.10bn$ of those will definitively be refunded 

    and that’s just the final

    Unlikely there will be an allocation of 12,000 per fanbase. Usually it’s about 8% of capacity, so maybe 5-6k.

    And also doubt there will be that many people from all 48 countries committing that money, as most can’t afford it and probably don’t expect to get anywhere near the Final anyway. 

    It wouldn’t surprise me if the biggest take up on it was from England tbh. Our travel club has 30,000 paid up members desperate to see us win a World Cup for the first time in many people’s lifetimes. 
  • Off_it
    Off_it Posts: 28,986


    Posted by a user on Reddit who ran 1 million World Cup draw simulations.

    England’s most likely Pot 2 opponent: Uruguay / Colombia / Ecuador

    England’s most likely Pot 3 opponent: Paraguay / Panama

    England’s most likely Pot 4 opponent: Iraq / Bolivia / Suriname
    Very pretty
  • lordromford
    lordromford Posts: 7,952
    Off_it said:


    Posted by a user on Reddit who ran 1 million World Cup draw simulations.

    England’s most likely Pot 2 opponent: Uruguay / Colombia / Ecuador

    England’s most likely Pot 3 opponent: Paraguay / Panama

    England’s most likely Pot 4 opponent: Iraq / Bolivia / Suriname
    Very pretty
    I agree it’s visually appealing, but as it’s perfectly symmetrical, the top right half is unnecessary.

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  • lordromford
    lordromford Posts: 7,952
    edited November 30
    One thing I can’t find online:
    How are they going to ensure the rules of confederations being separated?
    There are articles by FIFA and others explaining what some of the constraints and procedures are - for example, it seems they’re going to have 4 pots of 12 teams, separation of top 4 seeds, USA, Canada and Mexico being in pre-agreed groups, one team per confederation (except UEFA where 4 groups will have 2 from UEFA) etc.
    But if a team is drawn but can’t be placed in that group due to a restriction, what will they do? Move it to the next allowed group? Put the ball back and redraw? How have they ensured that the last balls drawn aren’t forced into a group that’s not allowed?
    I’m sure they have it worked out because they put a lot of thought into these things, but I’m just curious to see the algorithm. Anyone seen this?
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 64,176
    The easy bit is that they’ll move the drawn team along into the next available group. 

    I have to imagine, for the more complex ones, they’ll have some kind of software that will keep track of it all. No idea what that looks like, probably some kind of Python script.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 64,176
    Best simulator I’ve found so far. Seems to have all the constraints, including keeping England apart from Spain, France and Argentina.

    wc2026.app
  • paulsturgess
    paulsturgess Posts: 3,943
    cafctom said:
    How the fuck is this legal

    so FIFA will probably have sth like $1.15bn worth of money for final tickets alone (12,000 x 2,000$ x 48 countries) in their banks accounts for 6 months 

    when 1.10bn$ of those will definitively be refunded 

    and that’s just the final

    Unlikely there will be an allocation of 12,000 per fanbase. Usually it’s about 8% of capacity, so maybe 5-6k.

    And also doubt there will be that many people from all 48 countries committing that money, as most can’t afford it and probably don’t expect to get anywhere near the Final anyway. 

    It wouldn’t surprise me if the biggest take up on it was from England tbh. Our travel club has 30,000 paid up members desperate to see us win a World Cup for the first time in many people’s lifetimes. 
    Yes I know but you’re splitting hairs. I’ve also only allowed to 2,000 usd in that and more importantly that is only for final… semis… quarters 

    taking loads of people’s money for something that for the overwhelming majority will never actually occur it’s like bloody fyre festival!

    unreal they are allowed to get away with this 
  • cafctom
    cafctom Posts: 11,389
    cafctom said:
    How the fuck is this legal

    so FIFA will probably have sth like $1.15bn worth of money for final tickets alone (12,000 x 2,000$ x 48 countries) in their banks accounts for 6 months 

    when 1.10bn$ of those will definitively be refunded 

    and that’s just the final

    Unlikely there will be an allocation of 12,000 per fanbase. Usually it’s about 8% of capacity, so maybe 5-6k.

    And also doubt there will be that many people from all 48 countries committing that money, as most can’t afford it and probably don’t expect to get anywhere near the Final anyway. 

    It wouldn’t surprise me if the biggest take up on it was from England tbh. Our travel club has 30,000 paid up members desperate to see us win a World Cup for the first time in many people’s lifetimes. 
    Yes I know but you’re splitting hairs. I’ve also only allowed to 2,000 usd in that and more importantly that is only for final… semis… quarters 

    taking loads of people’s money for something that for the overwhelming majority will never actually occur it’s like bloody fyre festival!

    unreal they are allowed to get away with this 
    Its actually been this way with FIFA going back to either 2002 or 2006. Its not a new policy. UEFA don't do it for their tournaments.

    There is no justifiable reason that they need to do it whatsoever - beyond it just being a money making exercise for them. They get to make interest off the money, and off of the 'refund fee'. Plus the exchange rate can even result in people losing money. 

    It is sickening but unfortunately they'll get away with it as enough people will pay. 
  • Croydon
    Croydon Posts: 12,832
    I'll probably just do one game at those prices. Hoping we get an interesting city for our group stage at least. 
  • paulsturgess
    paulsturgess Posts: 3,943
    cafctom said:
    cafctom said:
    How the fuck is this legal

    so FIFA will probably have sth like $1.15bn worth of money for final tickets alone (12,000 x 2,000$ x 48 countries) in their banks accounts for 6 months 

    when 1.10bn$ of those will definitively be refunded 

    and that’s just the final

    Unlikely there will be an allocation of 12,000 per fanbase. Usually it’s about 8% of capacity, so maybe 5-6k.

    And also doubt there will be that many people from all 48 countries committing that money, as most can’t afford it and probably don’t expect to get anywhere near the Final anyway. 

    It wouldn’t surprise me if the biggest take up on it was from England tbh. Our travel club has 30,000 paid up members desperate to see us win a World Cup for the first time in many people’s lifetimes. 
    Yes I know but you’re splitting hairs. I’ve also only allowed to 2,000 usd in that and more importantly that is only for final… semis… quarters 

    taking loads of people’s money for something that for the overwhelming majority will never actually occur it’s like bloody fyre festival!

    unreal they are allowed to get away with this 
    Its actually been this way with FIFA going back to either 2002 or 2006. Its not a new policy. UEFA don't do it for their tournaments.

    There is no justifiable reason that they need to do it whatsoever - beyond it just being a money making exercise for them. They get to make interest off the money, and off of the 'refund fee'. Plus the exchange rate can even result in people losing money. 

    It is sickening but unfortunately they'll get away with it as enough people will pay. 
    Hasn’t realised that. But yes, they will get away with it , mugs like me will pay
  • iaitch
    iaitch Posts: 10,314
    The easy bit is that they’ll move the drawn team along into the next available group. 

    I have to imagine, for the more complex ones, they’ll have some kind of software that will keep track of it all. No idea what that looks like, probably some kind of Python script.
    I enjoyed the dead parrot sketch but not sure how its relevant. 
  • Siv_in_Norfolk
    Siv_in_Norfolk Posts: 4,084
    One thing I can’t find online:
    How are they going to ensure the rules of confederations being separated?
    There are articles by FIFA and others explaining what some of the constraints and procedures are - for example, it seems they’re going to have 4 pots of 12 teams, separation of top 4 seeds, USA, Canada and Mexico being in pre-agreed groups, one team per confederation (except UEFA where 4 groups will have 2 from UEFA) etc.
    But if a team is drawn but can’t be placed in that group due to a restriction, what will they do? Move it to the next allowed group? Put the ball back and redraw? How have they ensured that the last balls drawn aren’t forced into a group that’s not allowed?
    I’m sure they have it worked out because they put a lot of thought into these things, but I’m just curious to see the algorithm. Anyone seen this?
    Isn't it that there are balls within balls? Outer shell ball shows confederation. If wrong one, put it back in. If acceptable within clash constraints,  open it. 
  • lordromford
    lordromford Posts: 7,952
    One thing I can’t find online:
    How are they going to ensure the rules of confederations being separated?
    There are articles by FIFA and others explaining what some of the constraints and procedures are - for example, it seems they’re going to have 4 pots of 12 teams, separation of top 4 seeds, USA, Canada and Mexico being in pre-agreed groups, one team per confederation (except UEFA where 4 groups will have 2 from UEFA) etc.
    But if a team is drawn but can’t be placed in that group due to a restriction, what will they do? Move it to the next allowed group? Put the ball back and redraw? How have they ensured that the last balls drawn aren’t forced into a group that’s not allowed?
    I’m sure they have it worked out because they put a lot of thought into these things, but I’m just curious to see the algorithm. Anyone seen this?
    Isn't it that there are balls within balls? Outer shell ball shows confederation. If wrong one, put it back in. If acceptable within clash constraints,  open it. 
    Maybe, I don’t know though!
    Thats the thing - I’m not sure why I can’t find anything explaining it in more detail. It can’t be a secret, surely?

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  • iaitch
    iaitch Posts: 10,314
    All these elaborate draws, you just want them to complete it then realise there's one ball left over.
  • cafctom
    cafctom Posts: 11,389
    The draw on Friday is taking place in Washington DC....An interesting location considering its not a host city for the tournament and it doesn't exactly scream 'razzmatazz'. 

    But then it comes out that FIFA plan to present their very first 'FIFA Peace Prize' at the event. 

    Now I wonder which resident of Washington DC might be lined up to receive that in return for his involvement with the draw.....?
  • Weegie Addick
    Weegie Addick Posts: 16,642
    edited December 1
    Just booked flights to Canada for a couple of weeks. Probably won’t get any tickets for live games but will at least be more or less in the right time zone for a bit of it. 
  • SDAddick
    SDAddick Posts: 14,522
    cafctom said:
    The draw on Friday is taking place in Washington DC....An interesting location considering its not a host city for the tournament and it doesn't exactly scream 'razzmatazz'. 

    But then it comes out that FIFA plan to present their very first 'FIFA Peace Prize' at the event. 

    Now I wonder which resident of Washington DC might be lined up to receive that in return for his involvement with the draw.....?
    Two peas in a pod. 
  • oohaahmortimer
    oohaahmortimer Posts: 34,333
    those bullshit headlines are a joke , put a ticket up for sale for a billion pounds , doesn't mean that's the price they're going for
  • TelMc32
    TelMc32 Posts: 9,139
    those bullshit headlines are a joke , put a ticket up for sale for a billion pounds , doesn't mean that's the price they're going for
    Regardless, this is an official resale site. They should be limited to face value, plus fees incurred at the very most. The fact that FIFA are also helping themselves to a further 30% fee is nothing short of a disgrace.  Infantino truly has become the apprentice turned master…of the grift!
  • cafctom
    cafctom Posts: 11,389



    They were telling us that a beer would cost £80 in Qatar, that the infrastructure would melt on day one and that half the England supporter base would get locked up. All a load of bollocks.
  • ME14addick
    ME14addick Posts: 9,809
    Trump is saying he might take matches away from sone cities as they aren't safe. Coincidentally all in Democrat areas. 
  • Raith_C_Chattonell
    Raith_C_Chattonell Posts: 5,746
    edited December 3
    cafctom said:



    They were telling us that a beer would cost £80 in Qatar, that the infrastructure would melt on day one and that half the England supporter base would get locked up. All a load of bollocks.


    .