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Winter-January 2026 Transfer Window Rumours ...(Final Day p213)
Comments
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Basic math and probability are irrelevant or bookies would all be bankrupt.thenewbie said:
It's not complacency, it's basic math and probability.shine166 said:
Very optimistic outlook, win on Friday and lose to pompey and/or West brom and we will really be in the brown stuff. There's some strange complacency on here thats come from the Leicester win where people think we've now turned a corner, all the new signings are tremendous and we'll be fine.thenewbie said:
It would, but a win on Friday puts us 6 points clear of the relegation spots and 5 clear of the two closest to that spot. At no point have we been in the relegation zone all season, and that's including our recent run of very poor form.ShootersHillGuru said:
Your last paragraph highlights perfectly why a relegation this season would be such a missed opportunity.DubaiCAFC said:I think this window was all about getting us to the end of the season, then look to add real quality in the summer. Clearly the club are looking at players in Europe who can make a difference, and have a resale value.
Get to the end of the season, and let’s see where we go next season, I think there will be a bit of cash, and targets already locked in.
I'm not so naive as to think we're definitely safe but we'd need to go on a very poor run AND we'd need several of the other teams down here to have major improvements before we're in imminent danger.
My main concern is that the 6 games in February are too much for our squad to manage.
Our form isn't great, but NO-ONE around us has good form either. Norwich look like they should/could probably pull away, but Leicester may very well end up on trouble even without a point deduction. For us to be in imminent danger of going down, our form has to not only be bad, it needs to be worse than Blackburn, Portsmouth AND West Brom.
It could happen (and has before) but saying it's unlikely at this point is not unreasonable. At the end of February things may have changed one way or the other though.
Thats a great example of that complacency I talk of.1 -
Yes, some things do seem unlikely but, probably because I'm a pessimist, the 1977/78 season always springs into my mind. And I've posted this before:thenewbie said:
It's not complacency, it's basic math and probability.shine166 said:
Very optimistic outlook, win on Friday and lose to pompey and/or West brom and we will really be in the brown stuff. There's some strange complacency on here thats come from the Leicester win where people think we've now turned a corner, all the new signings are tremendous and we'll be fine.thenewbie said:
It would, but a win on Friday puts us 6 points clear of the relegation spots and 5 clear of the two closest to that spot. At no point have we been in the relegation zone all season, and that's including our recent run of very poor form.ShootersHillGuru said:
Your last paragraph highlights perfectly why a relegation this season would be such a missed opportunity.DubaiCAFC said:I think this window was all about getting us to the end of the season, then look to add real quality in the summer. Clearly the club are looking at players in Europe who can make a difference, and have a resale value.
Get to the end of the season, and let’s see where we go next season, I think there will be a bit of cash, and targets already locked in.
I'm not so naive as to think we're definitely safe but we'd need to go on a very poor run AND we'd need several of the other teams down here to have major improvements before we're in imminent danger.
My main concern is that the 6 games in February are too much for our squad to manage.
Our form isn't great, but NO-ONE around us has good form either. Norwich look like they should/could probably pull away, but Leicester may very well end up on trouble even without a point deduction. For us to be in imminent danger of going down, our form has to not only be bad, it needs to be worse than Blackburn, Portsmouth AND West Brom.
It could happen (and has before) but saying it's unlikely at this point is not unreasonable. At the end of February things may have changed one way or the other though.
In 1977/78 Blackpool were cruising along very well, spanked us 5-1 and then Blackburn 5-2. But they won only one more game in their last 16.
Yet with six games to go the Seasiders were still eighth, nine points off relegation. Only two points for a win back then of course. On 25 April, with one game to go, Blackpool were 14th, three points above Cardiff in the third relegation spot. Four days later, Blackpool finished the season with a 2-1 defeat at Brighton, meaning they were 16th with 37 points – two clear of Orient in 20th, with a superior goal difference.
Incredibly, with three games remaining in the league, there were 27 possible outcomes and only one of them (Cardiff beating Notts County, Orient drawing with Charlton and Orient beating Cardiff) would result in Blackpool’s relegation. And that's what happened. Blackpool went down with 37 points - a record number for a relegated side under the old two points per win arrangement in a 22-team league. This was the first time they would feature in the old Third Division.
That was, of course, the season we decided to loan Flanagan and Powell to the New England Teamen before the season had finished and we ended up in 17th place on 38 points. Only one ahead of Blackpool with an inferior goal difference.
So, for me, much like Henry's WIOTOS, until I see the table after 46 games or it's mathematically impossible, relegation still seems like a distinct possibility.6 -
Mathsthenewbie said:
It's not complacency, it's basic math and probability.shine166 said:
Very optimistic outlook, win on Friday and lose to pompey and/or West brom and we will really be in the brown stuff. There's some strange complacency on here thats come from the Leicester win where people think we've now turned a corner, all the new signings are tremendous and we'll be fine.thenewbie said:
It would, but a win on Friday puts us 6 points clear of the relegation spots and 5 clear of the two closest to that spot. At no point have we been in the relegation zone all season, and that's including our recent run of very poor form.ShootersHillGuru said:
Your last paragraph highlights perfectly why a relegation this season would be such a missed opportunity.DubaiCAFC said:I think this window was all about getting us to the end of the season, then look to add real quality in the summer. Clearly the club are looking at players in Europe who can make a difference, and have a resale value.
Get to the end of the season, and let’s see where we go next season, I think there will be a bit of cash, and targets already locked in.
I'm not so naive as to think we're definitely safe but we'd need to go on a very poor run AND we'd need several of the other teams down here to have major improvements before we're in imminent danger.
My main concern is that the 6 games in February are too much for our squad to manage.
Our form isn't great, but NO-ONE around us has good form either. Norwich look like they should/could probably pull away, but Leicester may very well end up on trouble even without a point deduction. For us to be in imminent danger of going down, our form has to not only be bad, it needs to be worse than Blackburn, Portsmouth AND West Brom.
It could happen (and has before) but saying it's unlikely at this point is not unreasonable. At the end of February things may have changed one way or the other though.
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Yeah Newbie, what are you, some kind of Yank?!?! I think you'll find that's my job!Garrymanilow said:
Mathsthenewbie said:
It's not complacency, it's basic math and probability.shine166 said:
Very optimistic outlook, win on Friday and lose to pompey and/or West brom and we will really be in the brown stuff. There's some strange complacency on here thats come from the Leicester win where people think we've now turned a corner, all the new signings are tremendous and we'll be fine.thenewbie said:
It would, but a win on Friday puts us 6 points clear of the relegation spots and 5 clear of the two closest to that spot. At no point have we been in the relegation zone all season, and that's including our recent run of very poor form.ShootersHillGuru said:
Your last paragraph highlights perfectly why a relegation this season would be such a missed opportunity.DubaiCAFC said:I think this window was all about getting us to the end of the season, then look to add real quality in the summer. Clearly the club are looking at players in Europe who can make a difference, and have a resale value.
Get to the end of the season, and let’s see where we go next season, I think there will be a bit of cash, and targets already locked in.
I'm not so naive as to think we're definitely safe but we'd need to go on a very poor run AND we'd need several of the other teams down here to have major improvements before we're in imminent danger.
My main concern is that the 6 games in February are too much for our squad to manage.
Our form isn't great, but NO-ONE around us has good form either. Norwich look like they should/could probably pull away, but Leicester may very well end up on trouble even without a point deduction. For us to be in imminent danger of going down, our form has to not only be bad, it needs to be worse than Blackburn, Portsmouth AND West Brom.
It could happen (and has before) but saying it's unlikely at this point is not unreasonable. At the end of February things may have changed one way or the other though.3 -
we are definitely in imminent danger, however, putting the millwall debarcle to one side, our form has picked up and in the Leicester game, 4 of our new players were voted in our top 5 so logically speaking, we are getting stronger - add godden coming back and the fact we no longer need to risk TC or Bell at wing back, things are definitely looking up - we are not out of danger by a long way but i can see why there is optimism - add into that the NJ and Valley factor with more home games and i think we will be ok.8
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FFS it's MATHS.shine166 said:
Basic math and probability are irrelevant or bookies would all be bankrupt.thenewbie said:
It's not complacency, it's basic math and probability.shine166 said:
Very optimistic outlook, win on Friday and lose to pompey and/or West brom and we will really be in the brown stuff. There's some strange complacency on here thats come from the Leicester win where people think we've now turned a corner, all the new signings are tremendous and we'll be fine.thenewbie said:
It would, but a win on Friday puts us 6 points clear of the relegation spots and 5 clear of the two closest to that spot. At no point have we been in the relegation zone all season, and that's including our recent run of very poor form.ShootersHillGuru said:
Your last paragraph highlights perfectly why a relegation this season would be such a missed opportunity.DubaiCAFC said:I think this window was all about getting us to the end of the season, then look to add real quality in the summer. Clearly the club are looking at players in Europe who can make a difference, and have a resale value.
Get to the end of the season, and let’s see where we go next season, I think there will be a bit of cash, and targets already locked in.
I'm not so naive as to think we're definitely safe but we'd need to go on a very poor run AND we'd need several of the other teams down here to have major improvements before we're in imminent danger.
My main concern is that the 6 games in February are too much for our squad to manage.
Our form isn't great, but NO-ONE around us has good form either. Norwich look like they should/could probably pull away, but Leicester may very well end up on trouble even without a point deduction. For us to be in imminent danger of going down, our form has to not only be bad, it needs to be worse than Blackburn, Portsmouth AND West Brom.
It could happen (and has before) but saying it's unlikely at this point is not unreasonable. At the end of February things may have changed one way or the other though.
Thats a great example of that complacency I talk of.5 -
Basic maths and probability are what the bookies are built on…shine166 said:
Basic math and probability are irrelevant or bookies would all be bankrupt.thenewbie said:
It's not complacency, it's basic math and probability.shine166 said:
Very optimistic outlook, win on Friday and lose to pompey and/or West brom and we will really be in the brown stuff. There's some strange complacency on here thats come from the Leicester win where people think we've now turned a corner, all the new signings are tremendous and we'll be fine.thenewbie said:
It would, but a win on Friday puts us 6 points clear of the relegation spots and 5 clear of the two closest to that spot. At no point have we been in the relegation zone all season, and that's including our recent run of very poor form.ShootersHillGuru said:
Your last paragraph highlights perfectly why a relegation this season would be such a missed opportunity.DubaiCAFC said:I think this window was all about getting us to the end of the season, then look to add real quality in the summer. Clearly the club are looking at players in Europe who can make a difference, and have a resale value.
Get to the end of the season, and let’s see where we go next season, I think there will be a bit of cash, and targets already locked in.
I'm not so naive as to think we're definitely safe but we'd need to go on a very poor run AND we'd need several of the other teams down here to have major improvements before we're in imminent danger.
My main concern is that the 6 games in February are too much for our squad to manage.
Our form isn't great, but NO-ONE around us has good form either. Norwich look like they should/could probably pull away, but Leicester may very well end up on trouble even without a point deduction. For us to be in imminent danger of going down, our form has to not only be bad, it needs to be worse than Blackburn, Portsmouth AND West Brom.
It could happen (and has before) but saying it's unlikely at this point is not unreasonable. At the end of February things may have changed one way or the other though.
Thats a great example of that complacency I talk of.
And these are their relegation odds:
Oxford 2/5
Blackburn 2/1
Portsmouth 9/4
Leicester 11/4
West Brom 9/2
Charlton 6/1
Norwich 10/112 -
Callumcafc said:
Basic maths and probability are what the bookies are built on…shine166 said:
Basic math and probability are irrelevant or bookies would all be bankrupt.thenewbie said:
It's not complacency, it's basic math and probability.shine166 said:
Very optimistic outlook, win on Friday and lose to pompey and/or West brom and we will really be in the brown stuff. There's some strange complacency on here thats come from the Leicester win where people think we've now turned a corner, all the new signings are tremendous and we'll be fine.thenewbie said:
It would, but a win on Friday puts us 6 points clear of the relegation spots and 5 clear of the two closest to that spot. At no point have we been in the relegation zone all season, and that's including our recent run of very poor form.ShootersHillGuru said:
Your last paragraph highlights perfectly why a relegation this season would be such a missed opportunity.DubaiCAFC said:I think this window was all about getting us to the end of the season, then look to add real quality in the summer. Clearly the club are looking at players in Europe who can make a difference, and have a resale value.
Get to the end of the season, and let’s see where we go next season, I think there will be a bit of cash, and targets already locked in.
I'm not so naive as to think we're definitely safe but we'd need to go on a very poor run AND we'd need several of the other teams down here to have major improvements before we're in imminent danger.
My main concern is that the 6 games in February are too much for our squad to manage.
Our form isn't great, but NO-ONE around us has good form either. Norwich look like they should/could probably pull away, but Leicester may very well end up on trouble even without a point deduction. For us to be in imminent danger of going down, our form has to not only be bad, it needs to be worse than Blackburn, Portsmouth AND West Brom.
It could happen (and has before) but saying it's unlikely at this point is not unreasonable. At the end of February things may have changed one way or the other though.
Thats a great example of that complacency I talk of.
And these are their relegation odds:
Oxford 2/5
Blackburn 2/1
Portsmouth 9/4
Leicester 11/4
West Brom 9/2
Charlton 6/1
Norwich 10/1
Yet if lots money is placed on a team the odds change....0 -
FFS I quoted a POST.TellyTubby said:
FFS it's MATHS.shine166 said:
Basic math and probability are irrelevant or bookies would all be bankrupt.thenewbie said:
It's not complacency, it's basic math and probability.shine166 said:
Very optimistic outlook, win on Friday and lose to pompey and/or West brom and we will really be in the brown stuff. There's some strange complacency on here thats come from the Leicester win where people think we've now turned a corner, all the new signings are tremendous and we'll be fine.thenewbie said:
It would, but a win on Friday puts us 6 points clear of the relegation spots and 5 clear of the two closest to that spot. At no point have we been in the relegation zone all season, and that's including our recent run of very poor form.ShootersHillGuru said:
Your last paragraph highlights perfectly why a relegation this season would be such a missed opportunity.DubaiCAFC said:I think this window was all about getting us to the end of the season, then look to add real quality in the summer. Clearly the club are looking at players in Europe who can make a difference, and have a resale value.
Get to the end of the season, and let’s see where we go next season, I think there will be a bit of cash, and targets already locked in.
I'm not so naive as to think we're definitely safe but we'd need to go on a very poor run AND we'd need several of the other teams down here to have major improvements before we're in imminent danger.
My main concern is that the 6 games in February are too much for our squad to manage.
Our form isn't great, but NO-ONE around us has good form either. Norwich look like they should/could probably pull away, but Leicester may very well end up on trouble even without a point deduction. For us to be in imminent danger of going down, our form has to not only be bad, it needs to be worse than Blackburn, Portsmouth AND West Brom.
It could happen (and has before) but saying it's unlikely at this point is not unreasonable. At the end of February things may have changed one way or the other though.
Thats a great example of that complacency I talk of.3 -
End of the day, February is huge. We could start march not having beaten pompey, qpr or West brom and have the usual suspects out for a month.
The reality is, as bad as those below us have been, there are very few points in it. Realistically its 1 of 6 teams currently trying to avoid that 3rd relegation spot.3 -
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BigRedEvil said:If Bell stays fit. Chambers keeps making an impact and Coady makes us more solid then we have a decent chance of getting enough points. Dykes looks like a good championship striker as well who will get a few goals.
Tbh West Brom and Blackburn look in worse shape than us at present. When your in a slide it's hard to turn it around. Both without a manager as wellHarry Clarke looks a good addition & Connor Coady adds experience & Collins Sichenje cover & pace at centre back. Collins looks to have quick feet, similar to Bell, & can use both feet (on video on player). Dykes is additionally motivated for a chance to be in Scotland’s World Cup squad.Fevrier is unknown but not holding down a regular place in Stockport’s team in league one is a not a great sign. Fevrier as potential right footed cover for left wing back is a worry to me.Pre Edwards & Bell injury, we looked a balanced team. Main risk of relegation is any disruption to the left side. If we see a regular Gillesephy on the left side, with TC / other at LWB - & Fevrier doesn’t cut it at cover then there is a real risk of relegation.The owners looking to ride their luck, IMO.If Bell & Chambers stays fit & Chambers maintains his form, then we should be fine. Its a big fingers crossed. 🤞 on Bell & Chambers fitness & form.5 -
When does fukuda become available?0
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Fevrier is left footedvff said:BigRedEvil said:If Bell stays fit. Chambers keeps making an impact and Coady makes us more solid then we have a decent chance of getting enough points. Dykes looks like a good championship striker as well who will get a few goals.
Tbh West Brom and Blackburn look in worse shape than us at present. When your in a slide it's hard to turn it around. Both without a manager as wellHarry Clarke looks a good addition & Connor Coady adds experience & Collins Sichenje cover & pace at centre back. Collins looks to have quick feet, similar to Bell, & can use both feet (on video on player). Dykes is additionally motivated for a chance to be in Scotland’s World Cup squad.Fevrier is unknown but not holding down a regular place in Stockport’s team in league one is a not a great sign. Fevrier as potential right footed cover for left wing back is a worry to me.Pre Edwards & Bell injury, we looked a balanced team. Main risk of relegation is any disruption to the left side. If we see a regular Gillesephy on the left side, with TC / other at LWB - & Fevrier doesn’t cut it at cover then there is a real risk of relegation.The owners looking to ride their luck, IMO.If Bell & Chambers stays fit & Chambers maintains his form, then we should be fine. It’s a big fingers crossed. 🤞 on Bell & Chambers fitness & form.7 -
I'm pretty dure Fevrier is a left footed right winger who has played LB and LW.0
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Article on Cawley's Substack in which NJ doesn't rule out us bringing in a free agent if we want to.0
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Need toScoham said:Article on Cawley's Substack in which NJ doesn't rule out us bringing in a free agent if we want to.0 -
No point .. they won’t be fit and take 4/6 weeks to get match sharpScoham said:Article on Cawley's Substack in which NJ doesn't rule out us bringing in a free agent if we want to.
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Probably not, but it’s how we signed Small. Nothing to gain by completely ruling it out.RonnieMoore said:
No point .. they won’t be fit and take 4/6 weeks to get match sharpScoham said:Article on Cawley's Substack in which NJ doesn't rule out us bringing in a free agent if we want to.2 -
Not if they were released at the end of the January window.RonnieMoore said:
No point .. they won’t be fit and take 4/6 weeks to get match sharpScoham said:Article on Cawley's Substack in which NJ doesn't rule out us bringing in a free agent if we want to.1 -
I think you mean "at the beginning of the January window"? Would give us 5 weeks to get them fit and assess them.killerandflash said:
Not if they were released at the end of the January window.RonnieMoore said:
No point .. they won’t be fit and take 4/6 weeks to get match sharpScoham said:Article on Cawley's Substack in which NJ doesn't rule out us bringing in a free agent if we want to.0
