We need a clean sheet to win (updated with full table)
I'm sure this has been discussed, but I was looking at some stats and the difference in our results when the opponent scores and when they don't is alarming.
If we don't concede a goal, our wins, draws and losses is 11-2-0. When we do concede a goal we're 1-11-16. We've only won one game all season when the other team scores. Maybe we need a good sports psychologist?
EDIT: After some constructive comments and light-hearted piss-taking I've decided to add a full table. Doing a full statistical analysis is beyond me and I can't be asked to include what time the goals were scored. Thoughts?
Comments
-
And that was against the worst team in the history of this league2
-
Sports psychologist ❌GoOnYouHaddocks said:I'm sure this has been discussed, but I was looking at some stats and the difference in our results when the opponent scores and when they don't is alarming.
If we don't concede a goal, our wins, draws and losses is 11-2-0. When we do concede a goal we're 1-11-16. We've only won one game all season when the other team scores. Maybe we need a good sports psychologist?
better midfielders ✅5 -
We played 08/09 Charlton?Leuth said:And that was against the worst team in the history of this league13 -
It’s not sustainable1
-
You mean... we've never lost when we've not conceded???
Who'd have thought it...13 -
Yeah, that one surprised me as well. I double checked the numbers, thinking that I must have made a mistake, but it's true!SteveACS said:You mean... we've never lost when we've not conceded???
Who'd have thought it...9 -
I get the feeling that you are right GOYH and that we are a better team when the opposition doesn't score. Whether there is anything 'alarming' or not, cannot be told from the statistics you've provided though. All teams experience better results when the opposition doesn't score, that's the nature of football. Those stats need a bit more work before they become meaningful, either a breakdown of the statistical probabilities of any particular result happening or a comparison to how other teams perform.2
-
I think changing the analysis to scoreing first vs conceding first would make it a bit more meaningful.3
-
We start games tight and if it is nil nil, invariably get a chance or two as the game develops and we sometimes take one. I think we were better at stopping opponents creating chances at the start of the season but now we are more reliant on luck in terms of them. Which sometimes we get and sometimes we don't.0
-
I wonder what this statistic would look like for Luton under NJ.0
-
Sponsored links:
-
I also wonder how we compare to the rest of the league on this metric.The minimum number of goals a game needs to finish with both teams scoring and a winner is three. And the average goals per game this season is only 2.59.
We’ve only done it once but I bet a lot of the league have only done it 2 or 3 times themselves.1 -
I was impressed that the goals against was "0" in those games. That's really impressive.GoOnYouHaddocks said:
Yeah, that one surprised me as well. I double checked the numbers, thinking that I must have made a mistake, but it's true!SteveACS said:You mean... we've never lost when we've not conceded???
Who'd have thought it...1 -
I take it you're new around here.GoOnYouHaddocks said:I'm sure this has been discussed, but I was looking at some stats and the difference in our results when the opponent scores and when they don't is alarming.
If we don't concede a goal, our wins, draws and losses is 11-2-0. When we do concede a goal we're 1-11-16. We've only won one game all season when the other team scores. Maybe we need a good sports psychologist?
2 -
This needs addressing for next season without doubt. While it's worked for us this season, the second season is always harder than the first season to stay up. No riding the wave of promotion, and we came up with the identity of keeping clean sheets which we carried into this season but has slowly been fading away with 2 clean sheets in our last 10 games. It's been great to enjoy but time to kick on in the summer.
0 -
Do you have any statistics on the results of matches where we score more than the opposition? I've a feeling we tend to do pretty well in those matches.GoOnYouHaddocks said:I'm sure this has been discussed, but I was looking at some stats and the difference in our results when the opponent scores and when they don't is alarming.
If we don't concede a goal, our wins, draws and losses is 11-2-0. When we do concede a goal we're 1-11-16. We've only won one game all season when the other team scores. Maybe we need a good sports psychologist?
1 -
Joined about 15 years ago, so relatively new I suppose. I'm more of a lurker than a poster.golfaddick said:
I take it you're new around here.GoOnYouHaddocks said:I'm sure this has been discussed, but I was looking at some stats and the difference in our results when the opponent scores and when they don't is alarming.
If we don't concede a goal, our wins, draws and losses is 11-2-0. When we do concede a goal we're 1-11-16. We've only won one game all season when the other team scores. Maybe we need a good sports psychologist?
2 -
I'll get ChatGPT to help me with the analysis, but I'm guessing that you might be right.Chizz said:
Do you have any statistics on the results of matches where we score more than the opposition? I've a feeling we tend to do pretty well in those matches.GoOnYouHaddocks said:I'm sure this has been discussed, but I was looking at some stats and the difference in our results when the opponent scores and when they don't is alarming.
If we don't concede a goal, our wins, draws and losses is 11-2-0. When we do concede a goal we're 1-11-16. We've only won one game all season when the other team scores. Maybe we need a good sports psychologist?
1 -
I don't think all those tables are necessary. The only relevant one is 'games won when conceding', and that compared to every other club in this division. A shorthand for this comparison is games we've lost when scoring - games other clubs have won when conceding to us and our potent attack. There have been EIGHT of those so far in the league this season.0
-
But also all this hilarious bants about how it's unsurprising how we do well in games where we score more than the opposition...that 1 vs 8 disparity IS significant imo, this is a good and meaningful observation by the threadstarter7
-
15 years makes you an old timer, so I'm surprised that you didnt know our failings when we concede first.GoOnYouHaddocks said:
Joined about 15 years ago, so relatively new I suppose. I'm more of a lurker than a poster.golfaddick said:
I take it you're new around here.GoOnYouHaddocks said:I'm sure this has been discussed, but I was looking at some stats and the difference in our results when the opponent scores and when they don't is alarming.
If we don't concede a goal, our wins, draws and losses is 11-2-0. When we do concede a goal we're 1-11-16. We've only won one game all season when the other team scores. Maybe we need a good sports psychologist?
I'm not going to go into it again as it's well documented, but if you want to while away a few hours then look at the stats over the past 6 years for when we let in the first goal.
0 -
Sponsored links:
-
I've added a full league table for comparison.Callumcafc said:I also wonder how we compare to the rest of the league on this metric.The minimum number of goals a game needs to finish with both teams scoring and a winner is three. And the average goals per game this season is only 2.59.
We’ve only done it once but I bet a lot of the league have only done it 2 or 3 times themselves.2 -
Thank you, that's more instructive. And the great news is we've got Sheffield Wednesday coming up.GoOnYouHaddocks said:
I've added a full league table for comparison.Callumcafc said:I also wonder how we compare to the rest of the league on this metric.The minimum number of goals a game needs to finish with both teams scoring and a winner is three. And the average goals per game this season is only 2.59.
We’ve only done it once but I bet a lot of the league have only done it 2 or 3 times themselves.1 -
I think those stats only highlight NJ’s plan for the season and that this was the successful strategy that kept us up (probably, still not mathematically there) despite having the third worst budget in the league. Why would you play expansive, attacking football when every other team apart from the two below you have more skilful, better paid players. It would be like entering a boxing ring with one hand tied behind your back. You need a different strategy to survive. We cannot compete with other teams in quality of strike force so instead we concentrate on defence and keeping clean sheets. If you don’t concede you have a chance of a draw or nicking a win. Yes, it makes it harder to win a game when you do concede but I believe this was all part of NJ’s strategy for survival when we’re so disadvantaged in this league. Expect more of the same next season as Carter has stated the player budget will only increase gradually to a mid table level in three years time.0
-
You might be on to something here.SouthLincsAddick said:I think those stats only highlight NJ’s plan for the season and that this was the successful strategy that kept us up (probably, still not mathematically there) despite having the third worst budget in the league. Why would you play expansive, attacking football when every other team apart from the two below you have more skilful, better paid players. It would be like entering a boxing ring with one hand tied behind your back. You need a different strategy to survive. We cannot compete with other teams in quality of strike force so instead we concentrate on defence and keeping clean sheets. If you don’t concede you have a chance of a draw or nicking a win. Yes, it makes it harder to win a game when you do concede but I believe this was all part of NJ’s strategy for survival when we’re so disadvantaged in this league. Expect more of the same next season as Carter has stated the player budget will only increase gradually to a mid table level in three years time.
We've kept 13 clean sheets so far this season, which is 4th best in the league, only just behind Coventry (15), Millwall (15) and Ipswich (14).2 -
Can you post all those statistical charts that you have used as wallpaper in your flat please?golfaddick said:
15 years makes you an old timer, so I'm surprised that you didnt know our failings when we concede first.GoOnYouHaddocks said:
Joined about 15 years ago, so relatively new I suppose. I'm more of a lurker than a poster.golfaddick said:
I take it you're new around here.GoOnYouHaddocks said:I'm sure this has been discussed, but I was looking at some stats and the difference in our results when the opponent scores and when they don't is alarming.
If we don't concede a goal, our wins, draws and losses is 11-2-0. When we do concede a goal we're 1-11-16. We've only won one game all season when the other team scores. Maybe we need a good sports psychologist?
I'm not going to go into it again as it's well documented, but if you want to while away a few hours then look at the stats over the past 6 years for when we let in the first goal.1 -
Stonewall 0-0 drawStig said:
Thank you, that's more instructive. And the great news is we've got Sheffield Wednesday coming up.GoOnYouHaddocks said:
I've added a full league table for comparison.Callumcafc said:I also wonder how we compare to the rest of the league on this metric.The minimum number of goals a game needs to finish with both teams scoring and a winner is three. And the average goals per game this season is only 2.59.
We’ve only done it once but I bet a lot of the league have only done it 2 or 3 times themselves.1 -
That would be incredibly frustrating, but it would probably suit us ok in the end.jimmymelrose said:
Stonewall 0-0 drawStig said:
Thank you, that's more instructive. And the great news is we've got Sheffield Wednesday coming up.GoOnYouHaddocks said:
I've added a full league table for comparison.Callumcafc said:I also wonder how we compare to the rest of the league on this metric.The minimum number of goals a game needs to finish with both teams scoring and a winner is three. And the average goals per game this season is only 2.59.
We’ve only done it once but I bet a lot of the league have only done it 2 or 3 times themselves.0
