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Transfer Hit Rate
SELR_addicks
Posts: 16,421
Looking back at last year's signings, one of the issues I have with Jones is how quickly he will move on from a player and cut them (seemingly) out of his plans:
We've had the likes of:
Apter, Knibbs, Olaofe, Kaminski, Rankin-Costello, Ahadme, Mitchell, Docherty
All signed over the last two years (the majority for fees) where Jones has either shipped out or seemingly doesn't trust enough to play within the year. Rankin-Costello seems to have slowly made his way back into plans, and Docherty managed to get back into plans after weeks/months of being dropped last year.
Is this a scouting/signing issue, or a Jones in/out issue?
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I think it’s Jones . He’s so erratic and emotional it affects his judgement regarding team selection and Sinings but he get in oppositions heads and I like that about him .1
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It’s a majority of football clubs issue.SELR_addicks said:Looking back at last year's signings, one of the issues I have with Jones is how quickly he will move on from a player and cut them (seemingly) out of his plans:
We've had the likes of:
Apter, Knibbs, Olaofe, Kaminski, Rankin-Costello, Ahadme, Mitchell, Docherty
All signed over the last two years (the majority for fees) where Jones has either shipped out or seemingly doesn't trust enough to play within the year. Rankin-Costello seems to have slowly made his way back into plans, and Docherty managed to get back into plans after weeks/months of being dropped last year.
Is this a scouting/signing issue, or a Jones in/out issue?
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Ahadme Mitchell Doc signed after we just finished 16th in L1 weve progressed past their capabilities.SELR_addicks said:Looking back at last year's signings, one of the issues I have with Jones is how quickly he will move on from a player and cut them (seemingly) out of his plans:
We've had the likes of:
Apter, Knibbs, Olaofe, Kaminski, Rankin-Costello, Ahadme, Mitchell, Docherty
All signed over the last two years (the majority for fees) where Jones has either shipped out or seemingly doesn't trust enough to play within the year. Rankin-Costello seems to have slowly made his way back into plans, and Docherty managed to get back into plans after weeks/months of being dropped last year.
Is this a scouting/signing issue, or a Jones in/out issue?
Tanto and Apter both had failed L1 loans why persist with players who couldn’t even perform in the league below and at good fits for them.Kaminski threw his toys out the pram and wanted to go.Knibbs hasn’t done enough to warrant a start the whole basis of him getting a chance is how poor Carey has been this season not him deserving it.It’s a pretty straightforward strategy keep the good players get rid of the bad players and the ones who don’t want to be here not an issue in the slightest13 -
Early days but this season we seem to have done a lot better:
Koumetio looked superb before he picked up a minor knock and is due back imminently anyway
Mesik looks decent
Arthur is great
Skipp showing good positive signs early on
You’re not gonna get much better than Grant on a free.19 -
Completely agree. Just a shame we couldn't pull off the marquee singing we wanted in JRS, as I really think we are one quality attacking addition away from being a pretty decent side.DamoNorthStand said:Early days but this season we seem to have done a lot better:
Koumetio looked superb before he picked up a minor knock and is due back imminently anyway
Mesik looks decent
Arthur is great
Skipp showing good positive signs early on
You’re not gonna get much better than Grant on a free.
Still too much pressure/expectation resting on TC's shoulders as a result.10 -
True but the 'money' as it were was spent on Alli. A player that I could imagine being moved on in a year or two for better options down the line.DamoNorthStand said:Early days but this season we seem to have done a lot better:
Koumetio looked superb before he picked up a minor knock and is due back imminently anyway
Mesik looks decent
Arthur is great
Skipp showing good positive signs early on
You’re not gonna get much better than Grant on a free.3 -
It's a by-product of our transfer strategy. We're trying to sign players for around 1m, 2m at most, and compete with clubs who are splashing out 8m, 9m on players. We are trying to moneyball it by signing amazing players for absolute bargains. Every Mesik justifies two or three not-quites imo20
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This ^ if Mesik was only £500k or whatever is going around as the fee then I'm totally cool with that.Leuth said:It's a by-product of our transfer strategy. We're trying to sign players for around 1m, 2m at most, and compete with clubs who are splashing out 8m, 9m on players. We are trying to moneyball it by signing amazing players for absolute bargains. Every Mesik justifies two or three not-quites imo
I would get properly scared if we ever got to the stage of spending £8m on a player , it would just feel so alien.2 -
That’s the point of transfers, you sign someone to improve you then you replace them as you progress beyond them. We spent money on A Mitchell, he then wasn’t good enough so we sold him. That’s how good clubs operateSELR_addicks said:
True but the 'money' as it were was spent on Alli. A player that I could imagine being moved on in a year or two for better options down the line.DamoNorthStand said:Early days but this season we seem to have done a lot better:
Koumetio looked superb before he picked up a minor knock and is due back imminently anyway
Mesik looks decent
Arthur is great
Skipp showing good positive signs early on
You’re not gonna get much better than Grant on a free.5 -
Last summer's transfer business sadly has to be considered a failure, when you consider how few of them are first team regulars a year later. A lot of money (by our standards) spent on players now worth a lot less than we spent.
Yesterday none of them started, and only Bell was rested.
Tanto and Kaminski loaned out
Burke left out of the 25.
Apter and Knibbs fringe players.
JRC around the squad without being a regular
That leaves Bell, Carey (and even he is out of the team now) and Kelman (who's not really nailed down a regular starting place)
Indeed we have a lot more regulars from our L1 side, both academy players like TC and Miles, but also signings like Jones, Coventry, Ramsay and hopefully Edwards (and maybe Godden is he can stay fit) .
This summer looks better, but also shows a different tactic. Lower fees paid, but I imagine the wages are higher.1 -
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I can’t speculate about what goes on in Jones’ head and behind closed doors, but I have this irrational belief that if there is any “friction” with players that have been signed it results from them not fully buying in to his philosophy. That means you have to be prepared to play out of position, sacrifice personal glory for the team, fully believe in his management style and project.1
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Under what manager in the last 20 years have we had a better transfer hit rate?
Not many of them that's for sure.6 -
The transfers did the job last year. A lot of the players weren't sufficiently good to stay on as starters but if you add up the contributions of Knibbs, Kaminski, Tanto, Apter and JRC they had enough telling contributions between them to keep us up. Key moments against Watford, Sheff Utd, Coventry, Birmingham, QPR etc helped us get enough points to be able to replace them with better players this year and that's the most important thing. We can't get the likes of Grant, Mesik, Koumetio, Skipp etc if we go straight back down and given the whole aim was survival it's a successful outcome. The new players look like they have longer term futures with us and that should hopefully allow us to make fewer and better signings going forward13
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Hard to judge any windows under Roland or ESI though, with the respective constraints managers were under.JoshrewCAFC said:Under what manager in the last 20 years have we had a better transfer hit rate?
Not many of them that's for sure.
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Most likely but 1-1.5M in today’s market is peanuts, even if he’s just average it’s not the end of the world.SELR_addicks said:
True but the 'money' as it were was spent on Alli. A player that I could imagine being moved on in a year or two for better options down the line.DamoNorthStand said:Early days but this season we seem to have done a lot better:
Koumetio looked superb before he picked up a minor knock and is due back imminently anyway
Mesik looks decent
Arthur is great
Skipp showing good positive signs early on
You’re not gonna get much better than Grant on a free.2 -
That's being slightly generous, as obviously any half decent players out on the pitch will have the odd moment during a season when they contribute something. And we didn't spend £6m or whatever on those players, and give them 3 or 4 year contracts just to keep us up for one season. They were meant to be long assets of the club, players to play for several seasons and hopefully be sold at a profit.Garrymanilow said:The transfers did the job last year. A lot of the players weren't sufficiently good to stay on as starters but if you add up the contributions of Knibbs, Kaminski, Tanto, Apter and JRC they had enough telling contributions between them to keep us up. Key moments against Watford, Sheff Utd, Coventry, Birmingham, QPR etc helped us get enough points to be able to replace them with better players this year and that's the most important thing. We can't get the likes of Grant, Mesik, Koumetio, Skipp etc if we go straight back down and given the whole aim was survival it's a successful outcome. The new players look like they have longer term futures with us and that should hopefully allow us to make fewer and better signings going forward
Instead we're stuck with players on long term contracts, either rotting on the bench, or being loaned out (and no doubt still paying some of the wages), as other clubs aren't willing to pay their wages. It's not fantasy football where you can just remove players you don't like after a year. They're players taking up squad spaces, and costing wages that we can't use elsewhere.
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You might have forgotten about some of the signings we've made in recent years who literally did contribute nothing. We're talking about going up a division into a league where players can move around for £10m+ every season and we had to fill out a whole squad of players. The margins are incredibly fine and we got there with some of their contributions, which given the amount of money we had and the step up was enough. I'm happy to still have Knibbs and JRC in the squad, I think if he gets his head on right there could still be something that could come from Apter and it honestly wouldn't have been the end of the world if we'd stuck with Kaminski, even though I'm happy we improved on him. I reckon Lincoln are paying Olaofe's wages anyway but I don't look at the squad and think that we've got total passengers, I see a squad that stayed up last season, the entire aim, and areas where we've improved on what we had. JRC has already made a couple of key contributions this season and we will continue to get injuries and opportunities will appear for other players.killerandflash said:
That's being slightly generous, as obviously any half decent players out on the pitch will have the odd moment during a season when they contribute something. And we didn't spend £6m or whatever on those players, and give them 3 or 4 year contracts just to keep us up for one season. They were meant to be long assets of the club, players to play for several seasons and hopefully be sold at a profit.Garrymanilow said:The transfers did the job last year. A lot of the players weren't sufficiently good to stay on as starters but if you add up the contributions of Knibbs, Kaminski, Tanto, Apter and JRC they had enough telling contributions between them to keep us up. Key moments against Watford, Sheff Utd, Coventry, Birmingham, QPR etc helped us get enough points to be able to replace them with better players this year and that's the most important thing. We can't get the likes of Grant, Mesik, Koumetio, Skipp etc if we go straight back down and given the whole aim was survival it's a successful outcome. The new players look like they have longer term futures with us and that should hopefully allow us to make fewer and better signings going forward
Instead we're stuck with players on long term contracts, either rotting on the bench, or being loaned out (and no doubt still paying some of the wages), as other clubs aren't willing to pay their wages. It's not fantasy football where you can just remove players you don't like. They're players taking up squad spaces, and costing wages that we can't use elsewhere.1 -
I find focusing on one negative over 5 positives very strange tbhSELR_addicks said:
True but the 'money' as it were was spent on Alli. A player that I could imagine being moved on in a year or two for better options down the line.DamoNorthStand said:Early days but this season we seem to have done a lot better:
Koumetio looked superb before he picked up a minor knock and is due back imminently anyway
Mesik looks decent
Arthur is great
Skipp showing good positive signs early on
You’re not gonna get much better than Grant on a free.2 -
I would define "fringe" players as players who get a spell on the pitch now and then, not those who are deliberately excluded, for whatever reason.killerandflash said:
Apter and Knibbs fringe players.0 -
Powell's signings of Morrison, Taylor, Wiggins, Hollands, Stephens and Yann were quite effective.JoshrewCAFC said:Under what manager in the last 20 years have we had a better transfer hit rate?
Not many of them that's for sure.2 -
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Danny Green, Ruben Bover, Mikel Alonso, Lee Cook all less so. Which shows that even the "best" seasons we didn’t actually get everything right, but enough that the failures didnt matter.iaitch said:
Powell's signings of Morrison, Taylor, Wiggins, Hollands, Stephens and Yann were quite effective.JoshrewCAFC said:Under what manager in the last 20 years have we had a better transfer hit rate?
Not many of them that's for sure.4 -
It’s a team game. Players, whether good, bad or average are impacted by those other ten in their team and by both what those players do and how they all interact in a team. Once the game starts someone who was very good elsewhere may no longer look so good when they move on and vice versa. How you believe someone will fit in is crucial but there is no science to it and it ultimately comes down to a gut call. Leicester paying £20 million for Skipp for instance probably feels like a big fuck up to them but we’re starting to see glimpses of what probably attracted them to pay that money in the first place and whilst it’s clearly early days he may well have simply moved to a team where he simply ‘fits’. I doubt Nathan’s transfer record is any worse or better than every other manager.1
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Ahadme, Apter, Kaminski, Knibbs, and Tanto are probably the only really bad signings Jones has made.There are obviously players like A.Campbell, Rousillon, Hernandez etc but imo how bad of a transfer can it be bringing players in on ridiculously low wages for 6 months who are there to just plug gaps or just have a look at.The top 5 came in on either big fees or big wages and ultimately to be 1st team starters and players were set to lose a decent chunk of money on. I think Jones has had a very successful hit rate1
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I think Alli has way exceeded expectations so far, I like him - very direct and takes people on, doesn't always work but that's wingers for you.SELR_addicks said:
True but the 'money' as it were was spent on Alli. A player that I could imagine being moved on in a year or two for better options down the line.DamoNorthStand said:Early days but this season we seem to have done a lot better:
Koumetio looked superb before he picked up a minor knock and is due back imminently anyway
Mesik looks decent
Arthur is great
Skipp showing good positive signs early on
You’re not gonna get much better than Grant on a free.
He played one crossfield pass Saturday in the first half that was outrageous.
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I'm really not looking to research negatives all the time. It's so exhausting to be negative.5
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I don’t think he was bought to be a starter either, but he’s going to end up being one for now. He’s been as I expected tbh, lively enough to impact games but lacking end product to be really good. I think what we paid for him is a decent dealElthamaddick said:
I think Alli has way exceeded expectations so far, I like him - very direct and takes people on, doesn't always work but that's wingers for you.SELR_addicks said:
True but the 'money' as it were was spent on Alli. A player that I could imagine being moved on in a year or two for better options down the line.DamoNorthStand said:Early days but this season we seem to have done a lot better:
Koumetio looked superb before he picked up a minor knock and is due back imminently anyway
Mesik looks decent
Arthur is great
Skipp showing good positive signs early on
You’re not gonna get much better than Grant on a free.
He played one crossfield pass Saturday in the first half that was outrageous.1 -
Please remind me how much we paid for Alli? I don't think it was that much was it?0
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Initial 1M. An extra 500k but not sure if that’s installments or performance related add onsredman said:Please remind me how much we paid for Alli? I don't think it was that much was it?0 -
Think the best hit rate was Lennie in 85/6 - Pearson, Reid, Humphrey, Pender and Shipley. The 6th summer signing was Jimmy Loveridge who wasn’t a success. Obviously we didn’t have transfer windows then and a few others came in later in the season1
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Green played 74 games for us, including 32 league games in the promotion season, so while he wasn't a star, he did play decent minutes. Cook was a loan, while the others were free "punts".thenewbie said:
Danny Green, Ruben Bover, Mikel Alonso, Lee Cook all less so. Which shows that even the "best" seasons we didn’t actually get everything right, but enough that the failures didnt matter.iaitch said:
Powell's signings of Morrison, Taylor, Wiggins, Hollands, Stephens and Yann were quite effective.JoshrewCAFC said:Under what manager in the last 20 years have we had a better transfer hit rate?
Not many of them that's for sure.
That summer 2011 transfer window was ridiculously good. When the Spivs ran out of money, we hardly needed any additions to finish 9th in the Championship the next season.
The summer of 2018 had an incredibly high hit rate too, for very little money. Just 2 perms on a free, Taylor and Pratley, both excellent. Then 4 loans, Cullen and Bielik who were top players for the level, Steer who was an excellent keeper before being recalled, and Jamie Ward who was less successful, but did a job for us.3
