If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
Just searched to see if anyone has odds up for our next manager and all I saw was when Jones was appointed for us he was 1/2 “which implies a 66% chance of it happening”….gulp
Have we suddenly decided that bookies are in the know and made a choice to completely ignore the fact that odds are dictated by where the money is being placed?
Have we suddenly ignored the fact that bookies love nothing better than to shorten managers to unrealistic odds i.e. relevant to the chances of that individual actually signing on the dotted line? Try phoning them up, asking for £10,000 at the advertised price of 10/1 only for them to let you have £100 on at that price and then to cut it to 2/1. Then, following all those tenners that they've allowed at 2/1 he's then 1/2. And they can take even more at that price AND offer Ramsey at 6/4 so even if one of them gets the job they make a profit. But guess what happens next? Another left field candidate is announced and his odds plummet to 1/2 and all those "in the know" can lump on again.
I'm not saying that Jones isn't a candidate. What I am saying is that the odds on offer are not representative of his chances of getting the job. Because if he was that certain they wouldn't even be offering a price on him.
Edit - And no sooner had I typed that than Jones is 6/1 and fifth favourite and Ramsey is 3/1. Fill your boots, for the benefit of those nice bookies, on Buckingham at 2/5 but try making a profit having already backed Jones at 1/2 or even Ramsey at 6/4.
You seem to have misunderstood how running a book works. It's not about being "right" all the time, it's about making money.
If people put enough money on you getting the Cardiff job then your odds would shorten. Not because you're in with a shout, but because that's just how it works.
AA is one of like four posters on Charlton Life, alongside bobmunro, Peanuts and PolzeathNick, about whom making this suggestion that they don't understand running a book is going to be totally inaccurate btw
Thanks, Paddy, for the vote of confidence.
I'll lay 8/1 that I know more about making and running a book than @Off_it and 10/1 that I know less - 33/1 we know the same
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him
Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.
Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.
Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change.
Not quite the same.
It's the same in the sense that the only thing in life for sure is that nothing is for sure. We were told he would be our next manager within hours he wasn't. Chris Wilder then said himself he was going to sign until they came in.
"for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" Tan might read the backlash/disappointment and think he needs to try and pay up. Jones may ponder it today and change his mind.
I'll celebrate when they appoint someone or Jones/the club assure us. The Cardiff noise sounded too confident for my liking.
What noise? Some of their fans on social media?
A questionable journalist hinted that Jones may be their first choice and the whole thing blew up, there was literally nothing else to suggest that A) The club had been approached, B ) Any talks had taken place and C) He even was their number 1 target.
The very reputable Rich Cawley who has a 95%+ SR on all things Charlton has said it's not happening, short of the club coming out and saying it (Which they won't, especially if it was all nonsense) that's a good as it's going to get.
It wasn't just some of their fans. It was journalists with followings. Of course their fans ran with it, but only because they had a source.
A) we may have been approached, none of us know right now if we did, or didn't B ) we also don't know the answer to that without knowing the answer to A and C) We don't, but that's what was heavily suggested, hence the thread. Why else do you think Cawley posted what he did?
I appreciate Cawleys tweet.
The problem may be that you are not sufficiently discerning about how you assess the professional quality of a “journalist”. Nowadays any twat can describe himself as a journalist, and justify this on the basis of his “following”. Among the most notable twats in this category is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon. He’s even got a stage name, like a lot of rock musicians who thought their real name didnt sound very rock’N’roll.
A real journalist is employed by a recognised media outlet, and has a track record of such employment over a number of years. Unfortunately that isn’t of itself enough to guarantee quality, as Alan Nixon proves. But a quick inspection of his output is usually enough to clearly separate a Nixon from a Cawley.
This makes it all the more sad that Richard Cawley’s employer has succumbed to the age of the Twats who Call Themselves Journalists.
No way NJ is moving. My cousin is an estate agent and Jones and his wife have been looking for a bigger property in the area. Found a nice place overlooking the Medway river
Christ. Two weeks in Medway and I’m sure he’ll be on the phone begging Ivan Tan to work for free.
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him
Now we know it's silly season. Could be the nicest bloke on earth but he's still a terrible footballer.
Let's see what the other source now has to say as well and if he back peddles as shamelessly as that.
Cawley as reliable as it gets, but I'll still worry a bit until Cardiff appoint someone.
Chris Wilder interviewed here and agreed to join before Sheffield United heard the news and took him. Never know what could change.
Not quite the same.
It's the same in the sense that the only thing in life for sure is that nothing is for sure. We were told he would be our next manager within hours he wasn't. Chris Wilder then said himself he was going to sign until they came in.
"for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" Tan might read the backlash/disappointment and think he needs to try and pay up. Jones may ponder it today and change his mind.
I'll celebrate when they appoint someone or Jones/the club assure us. The Cardiff noise sounded too confident for my liking.
What noise? Some of their fans on social media?
A questionable journalist hinted that Jones may be their first choice and the whole thing blew up, there was literally nothing else to suggest that A) The club had been approached, B ) Any talks had taken place and C) He even was their number 1 target.
The very reputable Rich Cawley who has a 95%+ SR on all things Charlton has said it's not happening, short of the club coming out and saying it (Which they won't, especially if it was all nonsense) that's a good as it's going to get.
It wasn't just some of their fans. It was journalists with followings. Of course their fans ran with it, but only because they had a source.
A) we may have been approached, none of us know right now if we did, or didn't B ) we also don't know the answer to that without knowing the answer to A and C) We don't, but that's what was heavily suggested, hence the thread. Why else do you think Cawley posted what he did?
I appreciate Cawleys tweet.
The problem may be that you are not sufficiently discerning about how you assess the professional quality of a “journalist”. Nowadays any twat can describe himself as a journalist, and justify this on the basis of his “following”. Among the most notable twats in this category is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon. He’s even got a stage name, like a lot of rock musicians who thought their real name didnt sound very rock’N’roll.
A real journalist is employed by a recognised media outlet, and has a track record of such employment over a number of years. Unfortunately that isn’t of itself enough to guarantee quality, as Alan Nixon proves. But a quick inspection of his output is usually enough to clearly separate a Nixon from a Cawley.
This makes it all the more sad that Richard Cawley’s employer has succumbed to the age of the Twats who Call Themselves Journalists.
True, good news that I didn't say anything was certain and was just speculating gossip online.
You are right on the last bit, we are in bad era on social media.
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him
Now we know it's silly season. Could be the nicest bloke on earth but he's still a terrible footballer.
But not because of a bad attitude, he worked hard, he just wasn’t good enough.
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I was hoping if Jones went he'd take Ahadme with him !
Just searched to see if anyone has odds up for our next manager and all I saw was when Jones was appointed for us he was 1/2 “which implies a 66% chance of it happening”….gulp
Have we suddenly decided that bookies are in the know and made a choice to completely ignore the fact that odds are dictated by where the money is being placed?
Have we suddenly ignored the fact that bookies love nothing better than to shorten managers to unrealistic odds i.e. relevant to the chances of that individual actually signing on the dotted line? Try phoning them up, asking for £10,000 at the advertised price of 10/1 only for them to let you have £100 on at that price and then to cut it to 2/1. Then, following all those tenners that they've allowed at 2/1 he's then 1/2. And they can take even more at that price AND offer Ramsey at 6/4 so even if one of them gets the job they make a profit. But guess what happens next? Another left field candidate is announced and his odds plummet to 1/2 and all those "in the know" can lump on again.
I'm not saying that Jones isn't a candidate. What I am saying is that the odds on offer are not representative of his chances of getting the job. Because if he was that certain they wouldn't even be offering a price on him.
Edit - And no sooner had I typed that than Jones is 6/1 and fifth favourite and Ramsey is 3/1. Fill your boots, for the benefit of those nice bookies, on Buckingham at 2/5 but try making a profit having already backed Jones at 1/2 or even Ramsey at 6/4.
You seem to have misunderstood how running a book works. It's not about being "right" all the time, it's about making money.
If people put enough money on you getting the Cardiff job then your odds would shorten. Not because you're in with a shout, but because that's just how it works.
AA is one of like four posters on Charlton Life, alongside bobmunro, Peanuts and PolzeathNick, about whom making this suggestion that they don't understand running a book is going to be totally inaccurate btw
Well if that's the case then it makes the comment even stranger, doesn't it? Unless he was trying to explain the obvious to those who can't grasp it, I guess? That would probably make sense.
In which case I'll offer you 2/1 he doesn't succeed! ;-)
I was but clearly failed miserably. Bookmaking isn't just about money layed on a particular candidate forcing the price down. It's also about getting people to back a candidate at the wrong price which is what I said about Jones being 1/2 and Ramsey being 6/4 in the same book. Buckingham is now 2/5. Not because bookies have taken millions at much bigger prices but because they want some people to back Jones at 1/2, others to back Ramsey at 6/4 and then others to back Buckingham at 2/5.
You can have whatever you like on a Premier League win market because all information is in the public domain but any market where someone has potentially information that they aren't party to will be restricted or closed. The people that have their accounts closed by bookies are those that are backing selections at a price that represents value. Those that consistently back horses when prices first go up, for example, the night before that then shorten drastically the next day. Those that are at a cricket match before play starts and sees the boundary is really short one side so back overs on 6s. Or those dirty arbers who see an opportunity to back something with them and then lay it on Betfair.
Somebody mentioning in the press a selection is heaven for the bookies. Their PR man is wheeled out and you hear those words "we've seen good money for xxxxx". Do they ever tell you how much they've taken? Of course, they don't but it's a way of getting more money in at the wrong price AND it gives free publicity to the bookmaker with the associated national coverage.
One final point. If the price of a manager is a direct reflection of the liabilities that they have on that candidate, how come they all go the same price on that candidate and each and every other one? They can't have all taken exactly the same money on those selections. Can they?
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him
Now we know it's silly season. Could be the nicest bloke on earth but he's still a terrible footballer.
But not because of a bad attitude, he worked hard, he just wasn’t good enough.
Not the thread for it, but if an unfit Chuks and Mbick are getting ahead of you, says it all for me.
It was still a poor judgment signing, that was the picture/joke.
Why are people getting so panicked by odds? When I knew Lee Bowyer was lasting the 10 games as "caretaker" til end of season and thus the bet on him as next perm CAFC manager would come in, I put on 30 quid, my mate 40, and his 16/1 odds went in to 4/6 literally minutes later.
It takes basically nothing to move a L1/Championship next manager market. The bookies adjust markets based on betting patterns and these markets are minuscule.
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him
He was pretty shocking. I think even Alan Campbell played better.
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him
Now we know it's silly season. Could be the nicest bloke on earth but he's still a terrible footballer.
But not because of a bad attitude, he worked hard, he just wasn’t good enough.
Not the thread for it, but if an unfit Chuks and Mbick are getting ahead of you, says it all for me.
It was still a poor judgment signing, that was the picture/joke.
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him
Now we know it's silly season. Could be the nicest bloke on earth but he's still a terrible footballer.
If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out.
I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not
With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.
I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him
Absolutely. Got to be someone to hate though and we had a pretty good season so Ahadme gets all of it. I think his time with us is over following promotion but I still think it's a shame that we never really got to see what he could have offered in a team that actually crossed the ball and played football that wasn't just shanking it up the pitch to no-one. I think we scored 8 headed goals since we stopped playing like idiots and a fair few others have either been assisted by headers or the result of headed flick ons or knock downs. We scored only 4 before that and one of those was Ahadme! Between the bad start and fitness issues stopping him having any kind of Gillesphey style redemption we'll never know if he could have offered more but considering he scored 6 headers for Cambridge last season I think he would have enjoyed life a lot more in the new system.
Comments
This
A real journalist is employed by a recognised media outlet, and has a track record of such employment over a number of years. Unfortunately that isn’t of itself enough to guarantee quality, as Alan Nixon proves. But a quick inspection of his output is usually enough to clearly separate a Nixon from a Cawley.
This makes it all the more sad that Richard Cawley’s employer has succumbed to the age of the Twats who Call Themselves Journalists.
Latest odds:
@AnonymousAddick 4/6
@Braziliance 5/4
@swordfish 3/1
@Gravesend_Addick 8/1
@Leuth 8/1
@Henry Irving 10/1
@AFKABartram 125/1
Edit: @soapboxsam late entry at 4/1
No money for @swordfish who drifts to 5/1
The drives him far more than any affiliation he has to Cardiff City in the third tier of English football.
You are right on the last bit, we are in bad era on social media.
You can have whatever you like on a Premier League win market because all information is in the public domain but any market where someone has potentially information that they aren't party to will be restricted or closed. The people that have their accounts closed by bookies are those that are backing selections at a price that represents value. Those that consistently back horses when prices first go up, for example, the night before that then shorten drastically the next day. Those that are at a cricket match before play starts and sees the boundary is really short one side so back overs on 6s. Or those dirty arbers who see an opportunity to back something with them and then lay it on Betfair.
Somebody mentioning in the press a selection is heaven for the bookies. Their PR man is wheeled out and you hear those words "we've seen good money for xxxxx". Do they ever tell you how much they've taken? Of course, they don't but it's a way of getting more money in at the wrong price AND it gives free publicity to the bookmaker with the associated national coverage.
One final point. If the price of a manager is a direct reflection of the liabilities that they have on that candidate, how come they all go the same price on that candidate and each and every other one? They can't have all taken exactly the same money on those selections. Can they?
https://www.bettingodds.com/thesackrace/teams/cardiff-city
It was still a poor judgment signing, that was the picture/joke.
- explains it well
- clear example
- humble brag
10/10