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Grand National 2026
Comments
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Cheers @StarinnaddickStarinnaddick said:Thank you Peanuts
I wasn't expecting such a detailed response but it puts the criticisms to bed imo.
I personally hope that they prepare Iroko for a third attempt as I think he ran particularly well although we don't know what the handicappers take will be.
It's all just opinions but it's so easy to criticise a jockey when, in all probability, the horse just doesn't get the trip.
Jones wasn't to know that and, bowling along after 2nd Bechers, why would you not let him just keep going?
Big risk to take a tug when you have strong finishers in the field and yours might not pick up again.
So many (Blakion and Shutthefrontdoor 2 of the most obvious in recent times), winners at 28~29f, looked great until after the last, even the Elbow. I reckon he's in that camp.1 -
I don't think people realise the decisions jockey's have to make on the spur of the moment. There are generally few second chances. As in football you don't know what their orders are.1
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Not gonna lie mate, but after a few lean years I was questioning the wisdom of backing you again, but then I decided I'd be more gutted to not back you and you end up getting the winner than simply throwing a few quid down the khazi.PeanutsMolloy said:
Sorry to miss this yesterday @Off_itOff_it said:Nice one Peanuts - I'm £118 up thanks to you, you Legend!!!
A bit distracted by the excitement - got to say I was nearly in tears with Max storming over the line.
Really appreciate your perennial trust in my model despite the less successful years.
All the best.
So glad I stuck with you and please accept my my profuse apologies for even doubting you for a second. Legend!
:-)2 -
Very interesting that Iroko was fastest at the end, well done to him and Jonjo. I'll try not to doubt him again, but will also watch any of future races in the light of the wind op. Maybe he is like Panic Attack.1
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Just taking a look back at the overhead analysis from Ruby Walsh, which is always really interesting, a few points:
- Jordans, you see him start off OK but wasn't travelling at all over the first 8 or so fences - get's nudged along after the Canal Turn as he's right out the back even over the 1st Melling Road
- Gorgeous Tom went round the inner, got very nearly brought down at 1st Foinavon - did really well to stay upright. Recovered nicely to be just behind Max when badly hampered again at 18th by Stellar Story - Flanagan did well not to be unseated on Tom but then had to veer around a fallen horse at 20th - knocked back to last alongside Jordans (still at the back) at 21st
- HCH - the mistake he made at The Chair knocked him back badly 5L+
- Spanish Harlem, going nice enough in mid div, also clobbered The Chair - cost him 5L+
- The Champ made a shocker at 2nd Bechers and was lucky to stay upright.
HCH might have finished closer but for his thumping The Chair and, if he returns, might be ridden a little less prominent.
The first 3 in a modern GN are never in front at first Bechers.PS gonna have a 2nd look to try to figure out why Iroko got left with too much to do when he seemed so well placed throughout.0 -
I doubted me for a whole year so no need to apologise for a second @Off_ItOff_it said:
Not gonna lie mate, but after a few lean years I was questioning the wisdom of backing you again, but then I decided I'd be more gutted to not back you and you end up getting the winner than simply throwing a few quid down the khazi.PeanutsMolloy said:
Sorry to miss this yesterday @Off_itOff_it said:Nice one Peanuts - I'm £118 up thanks to you, you Legend!!!
A bit distracted by the excitement - got to say I was nearly in tears with Max storming over the line.
Really appreciate your perennial trust in my model despite the less successful years.
All the best.
So glad I stuck with you and please accept my my profuse apologies for even doubting you for a second. Legend!
:-)
We’re still standing, throwing punches
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I shouldn’t have doubted him either.StarryNight said:Very interesting that Iroko was fastest at the end, well done to him and Jonjo. I'll try not to doubt him again, but will also watch any of future races in the light of the wind op. Maybe he is like Panic Attack.
Fine margins for the model’s assessment of returning placed horses.
A tiny recalibration needed but he finished so rapidly yesterday you to wonder why he had so much to do when so well placed.
Will look again at a replay.1 -
Having rewatched it, it’s clear that Iroko just lacked a gear - perfectly positioned for the whole race but when Jordans forced all the others off the bridle Max just had more gears and overtook Iroko and all the others. JonJo Jnr did nowt wrong and Iroko clearly was the fastest finishing from the Elbow.PeanutsMolloy said:
I shouldn’t have doubted him either.StarryNight said:Very interesting that Iroko was fastest at the end, well done to him and Jonjo. I'll try not to doubt him again, but will also watch any of future races in the light of the wind op. Maybe he is like Panic Attack.
Fine margins for the model’s assessment of returning placed horses.
A tiny recalibration needed but he finished so rapidly yesterday you to wonder why he had so much to do when so well placed.
Will look again at a replay.
Maybe he’ll never beat Max unless fortune intervenes - slower ground might help but would help Max even more I reckon.
But he was well worth his near-miss and no reason why he can’t repeat a strong effort next time as a 9yo.
The model’s Pedigree rating of 4 (borderline Winning Calibre) seems about right but in retrospect a mistake for its CV component to discount him.
A fine effort.1 -
Been so busy recently I didn’t have a chance to engage with the GN in recent weeks, sad about that as I love this thread and the build up it gives to the event. Well done PM and all who come out up3
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PeanutsMolloy said:
no worries @StarryNightStarryNight said:
I had 2 free bets from Betfred so threw in Ask Brewster as well, and since JP O'Brien seems to be doing well as a trainer, I've added Kim Roque (though he's a bit youngish).StarryNight said:PeanutsMolloy said:
Absolutely. Got my eye on a couple but will take a proper look when the recent Irish and Aintree GN runners have come out or not and there's a better handle on weights.CafcSteve said:What about the Scottish National?
I've started with the obvious one, King of Answers. Will have to contemplate the rest of them some more.
I'd appreciate any haplo insites for the race, PM, if you have any info, thank you!
I'll run through them all when the field and weights are a little clearer.
I'm not convinced the mtDNA analysis applies to marathon chases anywhere other than Aintree to be honest which, apart from the unique fences, is obviously a flat track, compared to Fairyhouse, Ayr and particularly Chepstow (or indeed Cheltenham) but I'll look at and give you the data in any event.
One idle summer I may finish crunching the stats for the Welsh GN which I started but didn't appear to look interesting one way or another - in fact I might switch my attention to Ayr as it's 4 miles, less undulating than Chepstow and of course a Spring National - if there aren't any correlations of mtDNA with Scottish GN success there probably won't be any anywhere over conventional fences.
Understood.
King of Answers, Kim Roque and Ask Brewster are listed for antepost GN 2027 (maybe some other as well, didn't check), so would be interesting for future use just as well.1 -
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Cheers @AFKABartramAFKABartram said:Been so busy recently I didn’t have a chance to engage with the GN in recent weeks, sad about that as I love this thread and the build up it gives to the event. Well done PM and all who come out up
All the best0 -
Well done Peanuts on another excellent thread and for highlighting HCH and I am Maximus.
Was truly brilliant when bustled through and came over the last just getting ahead of steam, was a great sight.
It was a shame about Champ Kiely, was right in the mix coming over the last but just emptied probs cos of his jumping at times.
All aboard next year!
Hope Mrs Peanuts is doing well in her recovery. 👍2 -
Martin Greenwood official handicapper for the GN said he was so impressed with I Am Maximus that he pencilled in a rating of 173 which puts him 1lb above Tiger Roll.1
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Cheers @Big_BobBig_Bob said:Well done Peanuts on another excellent thread and for highlighting HCH and I am Maximus.
Was truly brilliant when bustled through and came over the last just getting ahead of steam, was a great sight.
It was a shame about Champ Kiely, was right in the mix coming over the last but just emptied probs cos of his jumping at times.
All aboard next year!
Hope Mrs Peanuts is doing well in her recovery. 👍
It's been a while since something choked me up but Max did it on Saturday - he is indeed truly brilliant.
Much appreciate your kind comments and your contributions to the thread, which are always very interesting.
Mrs M is going OK thank you - a way to go yet on a soup diet but it could have been worse.
A little time off and I'll give the model the annual MOT and have it ready to roll out for next year's race, which could be one hell of an occasion.
Can't believe I'm actually contemplating an antepost at 12/1 but that could look huge in a year's time, as it did on Saturday afternoon.
Thanks again and all the best
PM
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Looks about right to me @StarinnaddickStarinnaddick said:Martin Greenwood official handicapper for the GN said he was so impressed with I Am Maximus that he pencilled in a rating of 173 which puts him 1lb above Tiger Roll.
To do that as a 10yo is something special.
What a horse!0 -
If i were wanting to put a bet on I am Maximus to win next year's National, how would i go about doing that to get the best odds, is that the ante-post you are referring to @PeanutsMolloy and do normal betting sites offer odds already?1
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Alwaysneil said:If i were wanting to put a bet on I am Maximus to win next year's National, how would i go about doing that to get the best odds, is that the ante-post you are referring to @PeanutsMolloy and do normal betting sites offer odds already?
They certainly do @Alwaysneil
He's 12/1 across the board.
Obviously antepost means if he doesn't run for any reason there's no refund of stake. But the price is fixed and if you back him each way it's 4 places but 1/4 of the odds for the place component (not the usual 5 places 1/5 odds).
If I really fancy a horse that's a short price to finish in first 3 or 4, the 1/4 odds is a nice element.
Though this year I did Max antepost with William Hill, as they were the best price, I tend to use Bet365 or Betfair (Sportsbook) or Skybet as they tend to offer (at least to me) a cash out facility. WH don't, the greedy wotsits.
That may or may not be for the full stake (and may be much less if the price has drifted) but at least it's an out if you change your mind later.
You may find oddschecker a useful site
https://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner
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Now that the GN fences are a lot 'easier' it makes a deal of sense to back I Am Maximus for next year's renewal. He is now a proper, proven horse for this particular course and we know that Mullins and McManus will take VERY good care of him2
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I just can’t weigh out money if it’s not NRNB. So much can happen in 12 months.1
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Problem is that they don’t go NRNB until after Cheltenham now - virtually all preps run.ValleyGary said:I just can’t weigh out money if it’s not NRNB. So much can happen in 12 months.
I agree 12 months out is a helluva gamble and I’d normally only do it with 50/1+ shots but seriously considering hitting the 12s for Max for at least half my target stake.
If he runs, he’s a must have for me, even as an 11yo and even if a very quiet prep.
But tricky call.0 -
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I had 3 bigger and 1 smaller bet on antepost that waited there all year. 3 larger have paid (Max, Iroko, Il Etait Temps) and the small one that was a wash out was King Turgeon. All in all I came up trumps but it's a risk. And when they run it's always very emotional (Il Etait almost gave me a heart attack!).1
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Blimey, this is Max after the race.
Wants to go round again.3 -
yeah, I don't believe Jordans or Iroko would keep up
I mean if the course was even longer.1 -
There was a lot of bad jumping/mistakes I feel at this Aintree meeting over both hurdles and fences.
I rewatched the GN yesterday, several mistakes throughout, can't really pinpoint why unless the horses aren't just good jumpers anymore.1 -
Congratulations Peanut.
Was happy for you to see I Am Maximus charging from the back of the last. Glad the time invested paid off!1 -
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good post .. I guess more emphasis on speed rather than jumping ability and over hurdles, horses not quite good enough for the flat 'converted' to NHBig_Bob said:There was a lot of bad jumping/mistakes I feel at this Aintree meeting over both hurdles and fences.
I rewatched the GN yesterday, several mistakes throughout, can't really pinpoint why unless the horses aren't just good jumpers anymore.1 -
I've done a quick scan of recent Scottish GN winner's mtDNA and there's little to suggest any particular haplotype is favoured, though Kittys Light (winner in 2023, close 2nd in 2022 and winner of the 2023 Eider) was the Aintree GN-positive N2a.
I'm not surprised if there's no strong correlation as, according to my hypothesis, the pattern of energy demand for a horse around Aintree is likely to be significantly different to that in any conventional marathon steeplechase.
In any event, got to say I'm underwhelmed by the Scottish GN runners in terms of future Aintree types. Can't find a single fella that would float my boat in a Big One.
Will have a low conviction punt nonetheless. He may or may not run so will wait until decs to hand over any folding but my main interest is likely to be
MONTREGARD 7yo 11-01 (10/1)
- handles any ground but is likely to run only if there's sufficient give (should be)
- up 4lbs for his win LTO at Ascot (where's he done a lot of his racing but he has won left-handed) but the form of both that race and his prior 2nd to The Jukebox Man is working out very well, notwithstanding the latter's failure at Fairyhouse
- sire is by Montjeu (+) and is strongly linebred to Wild Risk (+) and Bold Ruler (+)
- half brother to the very game Protektorat and, more to the point, closely related to the stayer Korelo, who was a keeping on close 3rd in the 32.5f Eider on Heavy
Isaac Des Obeaux (10/1), winner of the Midlands National, Ask Brewster (10/1), winner of the Kim Muir, and the unexposed Chasingouttheblues (14/1), closely related to Stellar Story, are flashing away fairly brightly on my radar screen but, if Montregard runs, I'd like to find something with some each way juice to accompany him.
Will keep digging. More after Thursday's decs.
PS There is NO model at work here - this will be a low conviction enterprise with very modest stakes but I have to have a lash at the April National hat-trick.4 -
Thank you, PM. Ha! Same two I have my eye on, have added Isaac earlier today and was waiting for Montregard confirmation.
Yes, agreed, the field re. future prospects isn't impressive, and anyways, isn't it so that Scottish GN horses never get anywhere far in Aintree GN.1 -
Kiss of death I'm afraid Peanuts. In the same way as I was on Stellar Story for the GN, I've already backed Chasingouttheblues. Hope it gets round further than Stellar did!PeanutsMolloy said:
I've done a quick scan of recent Scottish GN winner's mtDNA and there's little to suggest any particular haplotype is favoured, though Kittys Light (winner in 2023, close 2nd in 2022 and winner of the 2023 Eider) was the Aintree GN-positive N2a.
I'm not surprised if there's no strong correlation as, according to my hypothesis, the pattern of energy demand for a horse around Aintree is likely to be significantly different to that in any conventional marathon steeplechase.
In any event, got to say I'm underwhelmed by the Scottish GN runners in terms of future Aintree types. Can't find a single fella that would float my boat in a Big One.
Will have a low conviction punt nonetheless. He may or may not run so will wait until decs to hand over any folding but my main interest is likely to be
MONTREGARD 7yo 11-01 (10/1)
- handles any ground but is likely to run only if there's sufficient give (should be)
- up 4lbs for his win LTO at Ascot (where's he done a lot of his racing but he has won left-handed) but the form of both that race and his prior 2nd to The Jukebox Man is working out very well, notwithstanding the latter's failure at Fairyhouse
- sire is by Montjeu (+) and is strongly linebred to Wild Risk (+) and Bold Ruler (+)
- half brother to the very game Protektorat and, more to the point, closely related to the stayer Korelo, who was a keeping on close 3rd in the 32.5f Eider on Heavy
Isaac Des Obeaux (10/1), winner of the Midlands National, Ask Brewster (10/1), winner of the Kim Muir, and the unexposed Chasingouttheblues (14/1), closely related to Stellar Story, are flashing away fairly brightly on my radar screen but, if Montregard runs, I'd like to find something with some each way juice to accompany him.
Will keep digging. More after Thursday's decs.
PS There is NO model at work here - this will be a low conviction enterprise with very modest stakes but I have to have a lash at the April National hat-trick.1
