At this stage of the season, how can anyone be right ? Nobody has a crystal ball, nobody knows. There's two thirds of the season left to play.[/quote]
You are right. There is a long way to go and a lot of points to be won. Around 92 and 85 is the average number of points needed for the top 2 spots however I think 2nd place is going to need 90 this season as the league is so much better. Charlton and Leeds just carry on what they have been doing then all should be ok. Leeds especially would only need Bristol Rovers form to the end of the season to get whats needed now so something would seriously need to go wrong. Not sure how long Norwich's form will last but I cant see them keeping momentum for the whole season.
A lot of teams in the top half of the table have a pretty decent 1st choice XI.
The problem can be that most carry either small squads or thin in quality/untried youngsters, etc.
If a club can keep it's key players fit and playing, that goes one hell of a long way towards the consistancy that every team needs to maintain a challenge. But inevitably the injuries and suspensions kick in, youngsters despite their ability show their inexperience, individual player error or dip in form, or just a few unlucky rough results which undermines confidence. And especially late on in the season, a team can inexplicably freeze with the pressure and tension - and can't get a win at any price.
Or even the manager poached by a desperate cash rich club.
No certainties. And it's best that way, not being predictable.
The thrill of the chase.
[cite]Posted By: Addick Addict[/cite]Leeds will not choke this year for five reasons:
(1) They have by far the best squad in this Division:
1 Casper Ankergren (G)
2 Jason Crowe (D)
3 Patrick Kisnorbo (D)
5 Rui Marques (D)
6 Richard Naylor (D)
7 David Prutton (M)
8 Neil Kilkenny (M)
9 Jermaine Beckford (F)
10 Luciano Becchio (F)
12 Shane Higgs (G)
13 Mike Grella (F)
14 Jonathan Howson (F)
16 Bradley Johnson (M)
17 Lubomir Michalik (D)
18 Andy Robinson (M)
19 Ben Parker (M)
20 Tresor Kandol (F)
21 Enoch Showunmi (F)
22 Andy Hughes (M)
23 Robert Snodgrass (F)
25 Alan Martin
26 Leigh Bromby (D)
27 Davide Somma (F)
31 Jonathan Webb (D)
32 Aidan White (D)
33 Josh Falkingham (M)
4 Michael Doyle (M)
30 Frank Fielding (G)
28 Max Gradel (M)
15 Sam Vokes (F)
(2) They have one of the best young Managers in the country.
(3) Despite the fact that they are top scorers in the Division it is their defensive record that is most impressive. They have let in just 8 goals in 16 matches and even without Beckford, they are more than capable of nicking games 1-0.
(4) They've been there before.
(5) Realistically who is going to finish above them?
Slight edit:
(3) Despite the fact that they are top scorers in the Division it is their defensive record that is most impressive. They have let in just 8 goals in 17 matches and with or without Beckford, they are more than capable of nicking games 1-0.
Leeds have had a good while to sus league one out, they'll start to drop a few points sometime soon, although I don't think we'll catch them as we drop points too. I think we'll outfootball them when they come to us.. and sneak a win.
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Goals scored by Leeds 80 mins onwards so far this season... TWELVE
So far, Charlton have five
that's how you win titles
you beat me to it mate!
to be fair though, at 0-0 at home to the Os, they would have likely been throwing the kitchen sink at them so perhaps not surprising they got one last night
too easy to dismiss other teams just yet, if Rovers had won last night (and it could easily have happened) then we would only be two points ahead of them instead of 8 and we would be saying we were concerned about them too.
Long way to go but if we continue to average 2 points per game the Norwich might be the only threat, but if we don't manage this then we will be under threat from a clutch of teams.
If we can start winning some away games then Norwich are likely to be our main rivals for 2nd spot.
Huddersfield are a decent side no doubt but probably play-off material really. M******ll drop too many silly points against the likes of Wycombe and MK Dons seem to be on the fast-track to self-imploding.
Colchester's home form means they will probably be in the mix for a play-off place as well.
Yer i agree, leeds will not choke. so just gotta hope that we match norwich's results till end of season then we will be up, i am getting bit worried about them tbh
Yes others like Colchester & huddersfield are in the mix but i think they are not consistent enough to worry us at the momment so more in the back of our minds but i hope the canaries start losing a few soon! then gives us a bit of le-way
althohgh peed off at the time.. part of my thought process was that maybe us being out of the cup would be better in the long run... The longer Norwich, Colchester and co are in the cup.... the more games they will be play and hopefully for us those games will catch up with them and tiredness becomes an issue so it may work in our favour !! You never know.. but as far as I see it... its between Huddersfield, Norwich, Colechester and us for 2nd spot.
We just have to win our bankers and not lose to our rivals up there and we will be ok. If we happen to bat Norwich and Colechester at home (with those bankers) then we are ok.... One thing that has impressed me this year is the type of football being played in this division.. So many sides want to try and play football, no prima donnas such as Drgoba "ive been shot" every week.. good old honest pros
It would be an amazing thing if the top 5 now were the top 5 at the end of the season. MK are in defensive melt-down, but they could be one loan move away from getting it back together, so they may well be one to kick their way back into the party. Everyone gets very hung up on what's right in front of them, but as sure as eggs is eggs things will move around.
[cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]Forget Leeds, they're long gone.
Wouldn't it be funny if it turned out that they weren't ....?
Good sprint start, but it's actually a marathon they're running.
Lots of opportunity for them to blow up.
And it' could be how they handle the 6-pointers that indicate how their season could unfold.
They will lose games, wait and see.
Obviously it would be good if they did choke cos then we'd be fighting for 2 promotion places rather than just the one seemingly on offer at the moment. But Leeds have lost 2 of their last 32 league games, are unbeaten at home since January and are conceding hardly any goals. That doesn't suggest they're going to blow it.
It might not suggest they're going to blow it ...... but equally it doesn't mean it can't or won't happen, Chris.
I'm just saying that at this still early stage nothing can be a foregone conclusion.
Leeds might be unbeaten at home since January, but then Charlton haven't been beaten at home since March.
Of course last seasons results don't actually count this season.
[cite]Posted By: McLovin[/cite] Everyone gets very hung up on what's right in front of them, but as sure as eggs is eggs things will move around.
McLovin makes a very good point in his post above. Everyone bases all their projections naturally on what they know so far, but the rest is just a shot in the dark - guesswork.
A few key players missing or loss of form, and a front running team can quickly hit the rocks, and end up chasing the pack. Or an inspired new signing, change of formation, tactics and a winning confidence can transform a mid-table side into promotion challengers - totally unexpectedly.
That's what makes the game of football so unpredictable!
Oggy I admire your optimism and whilst they will lose games all the other teams will lose and draw more.
Grayson has put together a SQUAD full of quality whereas the sides chasing are reliant on a TEAM plus another two or three. It's not a coincidence that, despite allowing Richardson to go and choosing not to sign Sodje (who are fixtures in our team), they have let in less goals per game than any of the other 92 clubs. As I've already said we all thought that, should Beckford go, they might struggle but when a team only once lets in more than one goal in a game from 17 matches to date, a goal from their left back will be sufficient from them to secure at least one and probably all three points.
In fact, I will go as far to say that, with one or two more signings before next season, they will actually challenging for promotion to the Premiership.
We just need to win our home games and pick up a point a game away from home and we should finish second as I can't see too many of the other sides in contention capable of doing better than that.
AA, I'm not meaning to take away anything from Leeds qualities ...... it's just each team has to go through a muddy minefield with casualties, before this season is through. Leeds may be better equipped and organised than most, and at the moment may have given themselves the best chance of anybody - but they are not infallible, and even they don't know what's round the corner ......
And as you rightly say, it's all about us ourselves really. If we do the business on the field, navigate the pitfuls and consistantly pick up points - then we'll get to the finishing line too. But, like Leeds, even we don't know what's round the corner.
Our Last Three Home games are Colchester, Norwich & Leeds so if we are still in contention come Mid April it will most definately a thrilling end to the season, our Home form after all is not bad this season.
[cite]Posted By: Ketman[/cite]Our Last Three Home games are Colchester, Norwich & Leeds so if we are still in contention come Mid April it will most definately a thrilling end to the season, our Home form after all is not bad this season.
Was looking at that earlier, our run in is actually really tough. On top of that, 3 of our last 5 away games are Huddersfield, MK Dons and Southampton.
Even more reason why we need to go to the likes of Brighton and Stockport and get 3 points.
[cite]Posted By: Ketman[/cite]Our Last Three Home games are Colchester, Norwich & Leeds so if we are still in contention come Mid April it will most definately a thrilling end to the season, our Home form after all is not bad this season.
Was looking at that earlier, our run in is actually really tough. On top of that, 3 of our last 5 away games are Huddersfield, MK Dons and Southampton.
all we can ask is that our destiny is in our own hands going into that lot!, hadn't realised that about the home games, could be a cracking end to the season..
[cite]Posted By: Ketman[/cite]Our Last Three Home games are Colchester, Norwich & Leeds so if we are still in contention come Mid April it will most definately a thrilling end to the season, our Home form after all is not bad this season.
Leeds have a tough run during Feb / March: Huddersfield A, Brentford H, Southampton A, Millwall H, Norwich A
I can see any gap (if there IS any) closing significantly during time. I still see a close finish with lots riding on our home game against Leeds in the penultimate game.
(BTW Lookie, when do we get the spill chocker back?)
You only have to look at MK Dons to see how things can quickly turn around.
1 - 0 up away to Charlton 10 days ago they were set to go 2nd. Theyended up losing 5 - 1, lost again Saturday and last night and are now just clinging on to a play-off place.
Millwall were formidable at home until Wycombe turned them over.
Charlton were on a bad run with three defeats in three different competitions but have just got 7 points out of 9 and are three points clear of 3rd.
All still to play for.
Swindon seem an unpredictable side but might just gate crash the play-offs. I think Colchester look strong and I think they will stick around all year.
Interesting last 8 games for us. Need to be at full strength and mentally right for those ones.
[cite]Posted By: LenGlover[/cite]was it last season or the year before that Leeds had a points penalty?
Just wondering if that would explain why they were not top six at the end of November.
Year before.
Last year they got off to a decent start but had a dreadful November/December, including getting dumped out of the FA cup by Histon. They sacked McAllister in December, which was when Grayson took over.
Comments
AA is right - Leeds won't choke this season
[/quote]
At this stage of the season, how can anyone be right ? Nobody has a crystal ball, nobody knows.
There's two thirds of the season left to play.[/quote]
You are right. There is a long way to go and a lot of points to be won. Around 92 and 85 is the average number of points needed for the top 2 spots however I think 2nd place is going to need 90 this season as the league is so much better. Charlton and Leeds just carry on what they have been doing then all should be ok. Leeds especially would only need Bristol Rovers form to the end of the season to get whats needed now so something would seriously need to go wrong.
Not sure how long Norwich's form will last but I cant see them keeping momentum for the whole season.
The problem can be that most carry either small squads or thin in quality/untried youngsters, etc.
If a club can keep it's key players fit and playing, that goes one hell of a long way towards the consistancy that every team needs to maintain a challenge. But inevitably the injuries and suspensions kick in, youngsters despite their ability show their inexperience, individual player error or dip in form, or just a few unlucky rough results which undermines confidence. And especially late on in the season, a team can inexplicably freeze with the pressure and tension - and can't get a win at any price.
Or even the manager poached by a desperate cash rich club.
No certainties. And it's best that way, not being predictable.
The thrill of the chase.
if you think that's the case then lay them at 4-11 on betfair. Free money!!
Slight edit:
(3) Despite the fact that they are top scorers in the Division it is their defensive record that is most impressive. They have let in just 8 goals in 17 matches and with or without Beckford, they are more than capable of nicking games 1-0.
So far, Charlton have five
that's how you win titles
As long as that second spot is ours, I don't give a monkeys.
Same, when you're down here the only difference between 1st and 2nd is the Cup, up is up!
you beat me to it mate!
to be fair though, at 0-0 at home to the Os, they would have likely been throwing the kitchen sink at them so perhaps not surprising they got one last night
Long way to go but if we continue to average 2 points per game the Norwich might be the only threat, but if we don't manage this then we will be under threat from a clutch of teams.
Huddersfield are a decent side no doubt but probably play-off material really. M******ll drop too many silly points against the likes of Wycombe and MK Dons seem to be on the fast-track to self-imploding.
Colchester's home form means they will probably be in the mix for a play-off place as well.
Yes others like Colchester & huddersfield are in the mix but i think they are not consistent enough to worry us at the momment so more in the back of our minds but i hope the canaries start losing a few soon! then gives us a bit of le-way
Wouldn't it be funny if it turned out that they weren't ....?
Good sprint start, but it's actually a marathon they're running.
Lots of opportunity for them to blow up.
And it' could be how they handle the 6-pointers that indicate how their season could unfold.
They will lose games, wait and see.
We just have to win our bankers and not lose to our rivals up there and we will be ok. If we happen to bat Norwich and Colechester at home (with those bankers) then we are ok.... One thing that has impressed me this year is the type of football being played in this division.. So many sides want to try and play football, no prima donnas such as Drgoba "ive been shot" every week.. good old honest pros
Obviously it would be good if they did choke cos then we'd be fighting for 2 promotion places rather than just the one seemingly on offer at the moment. But Leeds have lost 2 of their last 32 league games, are unbeaten at home since January and are conceding hardly any goals. That doesn't suggest they're going to blow it.
I'm just saying that at this still early stage nothing can be a foregone conclusion.
Leeds might be unbeaten at home since January, but then Charlton haven't been beaten at home since March.
Of course last seasons results don't actually count this season.
McLovin makes a very good point in his post above. Everyone bases all their projections naturally on what they know so far, but the rest is just a shot in the dark - guesswork.
A few key players missing or loss of form, and a front running team can quickly hit the rocks, and end up chasing the pack. Or an inspired new signing, change of formation, tactics and a winning confidence can transform a mid-table side into promotion challengers - totally unexpectedly.
That's what makes the game of football so unpredictable!
Grayson has put together a SQUAD full of quality whereas the sides chasing are reliant on a TEAM plus another two or three. It's not a coincidence that, despite allowing Richardson to go and choosing not to sign Sodje (who are fixtures in our team), they have let in less goals per game than any of the other 92 clubs. As I've already said we all thought that, should Beckford go, they might struggle but when a team only once lets in more than one goal in a game from 17 matches to date, a goal from their left back will be sufficient from them to secure at least one and probably all three points.
In fact, I will go as far to say that, with one or two more signings before next season, they will actually challenging for promotion to the Premiership.
We just need to win our home games and pick up a point a game away from home and we should finish second as I can't see too many of the other sides in contention capable of doing better than that.
And as you rightly say, it's all about us ourselves really. If we do the business on the field, navigate the pitfuls and consistantly pick up points - then we'll get to the finishing line too. But, like Leeds, even we don't know what's round the corner.
Was looking at that earlier, our run in is actually really tough. On top of that, 3 of our last 5 away games are Huddersfield, MK Dons and Southampton.
Even more reason why we need to go to the likes of Brighton and Stockport and get 3 points.
all we can ask is that our destiny is in our own hands going into that lot!, hadn't realised that about the home games, could be a cracking end to the season..
I can see any gap (if there IS any) closing significantly during time. I still see a close finish with lots riding on our home game against Leeds in the penultimate game.
(BTW Lookie, when do we get the spill chocker back?)
Leicester
Peterborough
Franchise FC
Leeds
Spanners
Scunthorpe
Top 6 at end of November.
Leicester
Franchise FC
Spanners
Oldham
Peterborough
Scunthorpe
Must admit it didnt change as much as I would have expected from one third of the season to the end.
Just wondering if that would explain why they were not top six at the end of November.
1 - 0 up away to Charlton 10 days ago they were set to go 2nd. Theyended up losing 5 - 1, lost again Saturday and last night and are now just clinging on to a play-off place.
Millwall were formidable at home until Wycombe turned them over.
Charlton were on a bad run with three defeats in three different competitions but have just got 7 points out of 9 and are three points clear of 3rd.
All still to play for.
Swindon seem an unpredictable side but might just gate crash the play-offs. I think Colchester look strong and I think they will stick around all year.
Interesting last 8 games for us. Need to be at full strength and mentally right for those ones.
Year before.
Last year they got off to a decent start but had a dreadful November/December, including getting dumped out of the FA cup by Histon. They sacked McAllister in December, which was when Grayson took over.