The League One Race (stats)

Atletico Addick

Norwich City
Played: 32
Points: 66
Points Per Game: 2.06
Points Left Available: 42
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 26 (1.86)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 22 (1.57)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 19 (1.36)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 15 (1.07)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 9 (0.64)
to Stay Up: -14 (Norwich cant go down)


Leeds United
Played: 31
Points: 63
Points Per Game: 2.03
Points Left Available: 45
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 29 (1.93)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 25 (1.67)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 22 (1.47)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 18 (1.20)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 12 (0.80)
to Stay Up: -11 (Leeds cant go down)


Charlton Athletic
Played: 32
Points: 60
Points Per Game: 1.88
Points Left Available: 42
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 32 (2.29)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 28 (2.00)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 25 (1.79)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 21 (1.50)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 15 (1.07)
to Stay Up: -8 (Charlton cant go down)


Colchester United
Played: 32
Points: 62
Points Per Game: 1.94
Points Left Available: 42
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 30 (2.14)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 26 (1.86)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 23 (1.64)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 19 (1.36)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 13 (0.93)
to Stay Up: -10 (Colchester cant go down)


Swindon Town
Played: 30
Points: 56
Points Per Game: 1.87
Points Left Available: 48
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 36 (2.25)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 32 (2.00)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 29 (1.81)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 25 (1.56)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 19 (1.19)
to Stay Up: -4 (Swindon cant go down)


Millwall
Played: 31
Points: 52
Points Per Game: 1.68
Points Left Available: 45
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 40 (2.67)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 36 (2.40)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 33 (2.20)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 29 (1.93)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 23 (1.53)
to Stay Up: 0 (Millwall cant go down)


Huddersfield Town
Played: 31
Points: 54
Points Per Game: 1.74
Points Left Available: 45
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 38 (2.53)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 34 (2.27)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 31 (2.07)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 27 (1.80)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 21 (1.40)
to Stay Up: -2 (Huddersfield cant go down)


MK Dons
Played: 31
Points: 49
Points Per Game: 1.58
Points Left Available: 45
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 43 (2.87)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 39 (2.60)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 36 (2.40)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 32 (2.13)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 26 (1.73)
to Stay Up: 3 (0.20)

edit; updating

Atletico Addick

66 - Norwich +32
65
64
63 - Leeds +28 (1)
62 - Colchester +18
61
60 - Charlton +21
59
58
57
56 - Swindon +12 (2)
55
54 - Huddersfield +23 (1)
53
52 - Millwall +12 (1)
51
50
49 - MK Dons +3 (1)

stonemuse

so if we can get back to 2 points average per game which we achieved 1st half of the season, then we are automatically up ... interesting but I'm not convinced that is correct.

jaire

In all of your examples - if I am reading it correctly you are saying that any of those teams require 92 points to guarantee the championship, unfortunately that is not correct - if Norwich get 92 points and Leeds get 92 points and Colchester win everyone of their remaining games then they will have 104 points which will then give them the title. If I have got it wrong then I will say I am sorry but I am not sure I am.

Imnot Athletic

In the last 10 years, accross Championship, league 1 and league 2 92 points has been enough for a top 2 finish in 29/30 occasions.

In saying that, League 1 this year could be another outlier

I think 10 wins and 2 draws from our last 14 games will see us up. As to whether we'll get 10 wins and 2 draws.....

Atletico Addick

It's going on averages from past seasons, of course you're not going to win the league if someone has more points than you - but you can't ever know for fact how many points will win the league, this is just a rough guide from past seasons averages.

From 8 of the last 10 league seasons,

The Champions
Highest Points Total: 100
Lowest Points Total: 82
Average Points Total: 92.6
Guarenteed Points Total: 92

Automatic Promotion
Highest Points Total: 91
Lowest Points Total: 79
Average Points Total: 85
Guarenteed Points Total: 88

Third Place
Highest Points Total: 87
Lowest Points Total: 76
Average Points Total: 82
Guarenteed Points Total: 85

Fourth Place
Highest Points Total: 84
Lowest Points Total: 73
Average Points Total: 79.1
Guarenteed Points Total: 83

Fifth Place
Highest Points Total: 82
Lowest Points Total: 72
Average Points Total: 76.7
Guarenteed Points Total: 82

Sixth Place
Highest Points Total: 81
Lowest Points Total: 71
Average Points Total: 75.1
Guarenteed Points Total: 81

BigRedEvil

I think the most important part of this stat is

WE ARE SAFE!!!!!

We can stop playing now...

dabos

Interesting stuff

Where's Jake and his graphs?

JT

I think this season is going to be different from the norm in terms of points to get promoted etc.

Salad

what about the other two seasons?

MrLargo

We should know better than most that 88 points doesn't guarantee automatic promotion - it wasn't even enough for third spot in 97/98 when we finished behind Forest, Middlesbrough and Sunderland. Think it's a very similar scenario this season, with a greater number than usual of sides who are significantly stronger than the majority of the division.

Chris_from_Sidcup

[cite]Posted By: Imnot Athletic[/cite] I think 10 wins and 2 draws from our last 14 games will see us up. As to whether we'll get 10 wins and 2 draws.....

We're more likely to get 2 wins and 10 draws!

Callumcafc

Looking at our final 14 fixtures, we have 7 tough games still to play against six of the top eight in the league (minus Swindon and ourselves) as well as Southampton away who are one of the most dangerous teams in the league as they showed on Saturday.

This leaves 7 games where ideally we should be picking up maximum points to compensate for ones potentially lost against better teams. Of course we won't win them all but we need to be looking at 18+ points (at least 6 wins) to slightly cushion ourselves in the tougher games.

Any team should be as scared of us as we are of them, we are where we are in the league for a reason. It appears a difficult task when you play with the numbers, but it's still very possible that we could be sitting in the top two at the end of the season.