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a dangerous world unfolding

I don't know too much about the why's and why nots,about the middle east but the tunisian, Egypt riots to over throw their government. Seem to have kicked off similar action in Iran now that can have the opportunity to cause loads of deaths
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  • Dont think a revolution in Iran would be a bad thing for that country (long term) although i agree that the brave souls will probably not see it go with as little bloodshed as their Egyptian counterparts.

    Dont think the utter loon that is running things over there is for moving though unfortunately.
  • Hmmm... It seems they've all suddenly decided they want democracy when they've never really had a particular yearning for it in the past. I would;ve thought that would be a good thing for the world, but I agree things could get "interesting" in the transition period.
  • I dont think their revolution 32 (?) years ago panned out to plan and those that revolted didnt really get what they had in mind in the subsequent years.
  • i honestly think we are going to see seismic changes to the world order over the next decade. America is fast losing the power and influence it has held for the past 60 years and this combined with population growth, resource shortage, failing free market philosophies and climate change preasures could mean we see very uncertain times.

    The fact that the arab world is undergoing such huge changes and nobody has a clue what is going to emerge is a symptom of this.
  • The country you need to worry about is America,war hungry nation who delve in other countrys affairs,how many wars have Iran been in the past twenty years?? i find the fact that israel has weapons of mass destruction insulting as well,nosey little country that.
  • Dip in the American economy + bit of civil unrest in the middle east \ the oval office = war.
  • and then of course we have " geert wilders, europe's most dangerous man? " on the box tonight, pouring more petrol, onto an already highly flammable issue.

    very bloody scary.
  • [cite]Posted By: nolly[/cite]The country you need to worry about is America,war hungry nation who delve in other countrys affairs,how many wars have Iran been in the past twenty years?? i find the fact that israel has weapons of mass destruction insulting as well,nosey little country that.
    This. I posted a while back but I think most will have dismissed it as the witterings of a paranoid lunatic. The US economy is utterly f***ed. Sooner or later they need to initiate some sort of global conflict to get it going. If the tea party fringe gets in at the next election, my guess is that there will be a massive conflict some time in the first two years of that administration. No telling how nasty it will get - but I expect most of the middle east to get flattened.
  • It's not that long ago that there were last riots in Iran after a flawed election

    As with most similar riots (take the regional riots in China particularly among Tibetans and Uighurs a few years ago as an example), the motivating factor has been the price of living. Low wages or high prices lead to riots. In Egypt, the riots were started by students and the like, but joined by working classes angry about wages, and the riots still haven't finished. It's not in any way inevitable that these will result in democracy. Last week, Egypt moved from military dictatorship to... eh... military dictatorship, so definitely no guarantees

    What's very concerning is that there seems to have been brutal put-downs of riots in Bahrain but with very little outside coverage as media organs have been shut down. There may be similar responses (and lack of responses in the Western media) in places like Jordan, Syria and Yemen in the coming weeks and months

    In terms of long-term results, we just don't know what will happen. Iran went one way, Eastern Europe went another. Gazan voters were given a free choice a few years ago and chose Hamas. In Egypt, if the military step sideways (like, say, in Turkey) I think we should take as very likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will take a leading role in how that country's future is shaped. I can't tell you what that means, but there's quite a road ahead
  • edited February 2011
    [cite]Posted By: Clem_Snide[/cite]Dip in the American economy + bit of civil unrest in the middle east \ the oval office = war.
    Obama increasing US Military's budget by 3%. Worrying times indeed.
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  • I would not be writing the Americans off just yet, that's a very dangerous game to play.

    The latest figures - see link - show that the US is beginning to show some signs of economic recovery, although it will doubtless be a long, long road back to full health.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703843004576138894156036346.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

    America has its problems - some of them intractable - but from an economic standpoint they are still a huge player and way in front of anyone else out there, their economy is still far larger than China's.

    What's more, the country still has the finest academic institutions on the planet which are able to attract the best and brightest from around the world - many of whom choose to then stay and live in America, thereby making the country even stronger.

    I understand the points that Leroy made in his earlier post but I don't feel quite so despondent about the future!
  • [cite]Posted By: siblers[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: Clem_Snide[/cite]Dip in the American economy + bit of civil unrest in the middle east \ the oval office = war.
    Obama increasing US Military's budget by 3%. Worrying times indeed.

    Do you have a link for that? That does not sound right at all given the current US deficit.
  • [cite]Posted By: Ormiston Addick[/cite]I would not be writing the Americans off just yet, that's a very dangerous game to play.

    The latest figures - see link - show that the US is beginning to show some signs of economic recovery, although it will doubtless be a long, long road back to full health.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703843004576138894156036346.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

    America has its problems - some of them intractable - but from an economic standpoint they are still a huge player and way in front of anyone else out there, their economy is still far larger than China's.

    What's more, the country still has the finest academic institutions on the planet which are able to attract the best and brightest from around the world - many of whom choose to then stay and live in America, thereby making the country even stronger.

    I understand the points that Leroy made in his earlier post but I don't feel quite so despondent about the future!
    It doesn't matter what figures show. The US is bankrupt - totally bankrupt. They can't just keep printing money for f***s sake! Sooner or later the rampant free-market capitalism of the past forty years has to fail - it has to. It isn't a question of 'if', but 'when'. When it does - global conflict, no question about it. The US doesn't have the best and brightest of anything or anyone any more. The Chinese have more intelligent academics, industrialists and technicians. They make everything at an absolute fraction of what the US does, are gobbling up resources like there's no tomorrow, have a population firmly under the yoke who have precisely zero chance of 'rising up' against their government and who are (ahem) 'willing' to work for chicken feed. What are the US going to do - just invent new ways to talk to each other (like they have been for the past 15 years)? Real-world unemployment in the US is already at around 20% - much larger in the inner cities. They have no chance of getting the unemployment rate down to anything manageable because they can't compete with the Chinese on the world market, and they have an even greater class divide than we do in the UK - and largely along racial lines. Meanwhile, their lunatic religious fringe is actually taken seriously (anywhere else in the Western world it would be dismissed out of hand) and has a very, very real chance of achieving power at the next election. If that isn't the recipe for a civil war I don't know what is.
  • Some excellent points there Leroy, some of which I agree with, but there are some useful counter-arguments.....

    1] China cannot afford for the US to go broke. The US market is critical for Chinese manufacturers and if that goes belly up then so do millions of manufacturing and design jobs in China.

    The problem for the Chinese is that their own domestic market is still so weak because the locals don't have any social security safety net so therefore hoard about 40%-50% of their earnings for a "rainy day" scenario.

    2] China is indeed producing millions of engineering/IT/science graduates but the quality - outside of a few top places like Tsinghua University - is variable, especially from a commercial standpoint.

    What the American's continued to excel at - and the Chinese acknowledge this - is commercialising their research into successful commercial products.

    The Chinese would kill to be able to have a cutting edge firm like Apple (I know you hate them!) that is a genuine market leader but they don't really know how to get to that point.

    3] The Chinese also face the very real problem of getting international acceptance for their proprietary technologies because of security concerns from western governments. Their major telecom manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE face massive problems in this regard.

    The Chinese tried to get their own 3G technology off the ground and globally accepted as part of the 3G family of technologies but failed dismally to do so with their TD-SCDMA technology not being picked up by anyone and the global community steaming towards the largely European developed LTE standard.

    This is a real problem for the Chinese and one they are desperate to overcome.

    4] The Tea Party stuff in the US has peaked, they have absolutely no viable candidate for President in 2012 other than the Wasilla Hillbilly and her ACN negatives are currently running at around 63%. Try winning the Presidency from there.

    The real turning point will come in the next Congress when the Republicans will have majorities in the House of Reps and Senate whilst Obama will retain the Presidency, this will force the Republicans to start actually cutting the federal budget in a serious manner, including "third-rail" items like Defence, or face a splintering in their own party.
  • ***NEWSFLASH!***

    -10,000 egyptian troops have just entered Jordan.

    A spokesman said"she is very sore,but is enjoying being single again"!!!
  • edited February 2011
    .
  • Many good points

    [quote][cite]Posted By: Saga Lout[/cite]Hmmm... It seems they've all suddenly decided they want democracy when they've never really had a particular yearning for it in the past. I would;ve thought that would be a good thing for the world, but I agree things could get "interesting" in the transition period.[/quote]

    One thing that perhaps we have overlooked, it has been tried many times in the past, but with intimidation, from the powers that be. Take way that interdiction and the moment grows, people that always wanted it see that now with it really happening in two different countries is the time to make a stand. Perhaps we could take heed here as well?
  • [cite]Posted By: Ormiston Addick[/cite]Some excellent points there Leroy, some of which I agree with, but there are some useful counter-arguments.....

    1] China cannot afford for the US to go broke. The US market is critical for Chinese manufacturers and if that goes belly up then so do millions of manufacturing and design jobs in China.

    The problem for the Chinese is that their own domestic market is still so weak because the locals don't have any social security safety net so therefore hoard about 40%-50% of their earnings for a "rainy day" scenario.

    2] China is indeed producing millions of engineering/IT/science graduates but the quality - outside of a few top places like Tsinghua University - is variable, especially from a commercial standpoint.

    What the American's continued to excel at - and the Chinese acknowledge this - is commercialising their research into successful commercial products.

    The Chinese would kill to be able to have a cutting edge firm like Apple (I know you hate them!) that is a genuine market leader but they don't really know how to get to that point.

    3] The Chinese also face the very real problem of getting international acceptance for their proprietary technologies because of security concerns from western governments. Their major telecom manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE face massive problems in this regard.

    The Chinese tried to get their own 3G technology off the ground and globally accepted as part of the 3G family of technologies but failed dismally to do so with their TD-SCDMA technology not being picked up by anyone and the global community steaming towards the largely European developed LTE standard.

    This is a real problem for the Chinese and one they are desperate to overcome.

    4] The Tea Party stuff in the US has peaked, they have absolutely no viable candidate for President in 2012 other than the Wasilla Hillbilly and her ACN negatives are currently running at around 63%. Try winning the Presidency from there.

    The real turning point will come in the next Congress when the Republicans will have majorities in the House of Reps and Senate whilst Obama will retain the Presidency, this will force the Republicans to start actually cutting the federal budget in a serious manner, including "third-rail" items like Defence, or face a splintering in their own party.
    Some excellent points - I wish all debates on here were like this!

    I'm too f***ed to reply properly now (working for an American company that somehow ISN'T in the toilet is still tiring!) - but I think your outlook on the US is much rosier than mine because you're a glass-half-full bloke... and I'm definitely GHE :o)

    The one thing I would say in defence of the 'US is about to fail' argument is that the economic system there has failed. No amount of innovation, product development or anything else will gloss over that fact.
  • I'm just waiting for the US invasion of Canada, we've got plenty of oil up here and despite our government being to the right of most anywhere else in the world we're still seen as pinko socialists by the US!!
  • edited February 2011
    I am not going to wade fully into this one - I'll let Leroy and Ormiston slug that out.

    I do see historical parallels between now and the 1930's.

    1. A Stock Market crash followed by a depression/recession.
    2. A squeeze on middle class livelihoods
    3. Rise of nationalism/racial intolerance
    4. Our country scaling back its armed forces
    5. Foreign policy driven by economic considerations
    6. A coalition government
    7. Defence policy driven by the mistakes of past warfare excursions

    Where its all going to lead, I guess nobody really knows. The omens aren't particularly good.

    Time to remember the three steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack

    1. Sit down
    2. Put your head between your legs
    3. Kiss your arse goodbye

    Sleep well :-)
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  • [cite]Posted By: nolly[/cite]The country you need to worry about is America,war hungry nation who delve in other countrys affairs,how many wars have Iran been in the past twenty years?? i find the fact that israel has weapons of mass destruction insulting as well,nosey little country that.

    Unfair in my opinion. It's difficult to know where to draw the line but most of America's military interventions have been morally right, at face value. There are arguments about the profitibility of war, but this is inevitable as wars cost money. Evidence that non-intervention in the past has been more damaging is stronger than any which supports the view of the US as a 'war-mongering', oil-thirsty, super-power which wages wars for it's own ends.

    As for the Arabic nations, as someone said, these civil disturbances are the result of years of oppression by corrupt dictatorships in the worlds poorest countries. Their governments' handling of them do need to be monitoreed and intervention considered accordingly. There is 'right' and 'wrong' in the world, regardless of cultural and religious context.
  • I am surprised to see very little mention of radical Moslems. I saw at first hand for a period their strict behaviour in many areas, and I believe that their long term aim is control in the World. In this day and age I am very uncomfortable with their determination to keep women as second class citizens who obey them at all times. Unfortunately we as a Country are basically mugs too often in controvertial areas.
  • edited February 2011
    It is a well thought out debate this one.



    I didnt Like the way the Clinton woman wouldn't come out and tell Egypt what to do but then the min this happened in Iran she gobbed off and started telling them what should happen.


    Playing into Iranian hands that , imo hr could easily say its western starting the trouble.


    Then boom before you know it we have another bloody war on our hands
  • Intervention by the US and it's friends hardly ever ends as well or as cheaply or as quickly as they expect, yet they keep doing it. A lot of the trouble in the Arab world stems from decisions made by the allies after the first and second world wars - the creation of Israel, the current make-up of Iraq, the list goes on.

    A lot of this intervention or support of one regime or another is down to whether or not they are seen as "friendly to the West" - I don't buy the arguement that what the US does is all about helping the people of those nations - does anyone? The US is hated, really hated by billions of people arround the world and we don't do ourselves a lot of favors being so closely associated with them.
  • [cite]Posted By: Granpa[/cite]I am surprised to see very little mention of radical Moslems. I saw at first hand for a period their strict behaviour in many areas, and I believe that their long term aim is control in the World. In this day and age I am very uncomfortable with their determination to keep women as second class citizens who obey them at all times. Unfortunately we as a Country are basically mugs too often in controvertial areas.

    Me too. Lived in Saudi Arabia "the Wests closest ally" and was subject to it first hand. Treatment of women an non- muslim Asians was sickening. Still let's ignore that. ($$$$$$$$)


    It's become an almost taboo subject. The key word is "radical" and unfortunatley a section of the media has whipped up such a frenzy of anti - muslim sentiment over the years and the media at the other end of the spectrum has countered it with the subtle allegation that anyone discussing such issues has a somewhat racist agenda. Same way it did with nonces in the 90s leading to the superb Brass eye piss take.

    Basically I mean what Henry said on the sunk C4 Dispatches thread.


    Time for people to grow some balls and have a proper adult debate about such issues without calls for mosques to be burned or equally without folk having to bite their tongues on such topics as "radical" Islamists and their agenda. It is a form of facisim just the same as other forms of facism that have existed throughout history and it needs to be addressed and not ignored for fear of upsetting peoples feelings. The way that is achieved is the challenge i suppose!
  • No war ever ends as expected. How was Iraq affected by decisions made on the back of WWII? (Genuine question: I'm not an historian). The invasion of Iraq was, in my opinion, 100% correct and deserved the UK's full support. Whether that makes us unpopular doesn't bother me.

    The French have their own agenda which is why they repeatedly abstain from action. Their trading history with Saddam is despicable and their governments have rarely made a foreign affairs policy that hasn't been driven by money, yet they are never seen in a bad light, hwereas the US are always painted as the aggressors rather than the peace-keepers.
  • [cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]No war ever ends as expected. How was Iraq affected by decisions made on the back of WWII? (Genuine question: I'm not an historian). The invasion of Iraq was, in my opinion, 100% correct and deserved the UK's full support. Whether that makes us unpopular doesn't bother me.

    The French have their own agenda which is why they repeatedly abstain from action. Their trading history with Saddam is despicable and their governments have rarely made a foreign affairs policy that hasn't been driven by money, yet they are never seen in a bad light, hwereas the US are always painted as the aggressors rather than the peace-keepers.

    Regarding Iraq, it was after the first world war that the current state was created and initially run by Britain. It has a diverse population and 2 official languages. Hence the internal unrest and why it may never be free of factions fighting for control.
  • [cite]Posted By: Saga Lout[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]No war ever ends as expected. How was Iraq affected by decisions made on the back of WWII? (Genuine question: I'm not an historian). The invasion of Iraq was, in my opinion, 100% correct and deserved the UK's full support. Whether that makes us unpopular doesn't bother me.

    The French have their own agenda which is why they repeatedly abstain from action. Their trading history with Saddam is despicable and their governments have rarely made a foreign affairs policy that hasn't been driven by money, yet they are never seen in a bad light, hwereas the US are always painted as the aggressors rather than the peace-keepers.

    Regarding Iraq, it was after the first world war that the current state was created and initially run by Britain. It has a diverse population and 2 official languages. Hence the internal unrest and why it may never be free of factions fighting for control.

    I see, sorry I misread your post. I still don't see why Britain's rule, which ceased many years ago, has anything to do with recent events in Iraq. The problems there have less to do with there being 2 languages and a 'diverse population' and more to do with being ran by a murdering tyrant for 30 odd years. The Allies biggest mistake was not removing during the first Gulf conflict, allowing him to develop chemical weaponry and kill many more Iraqi citizens.
  • [cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]and more to do with being ran by a murdering tyrant for 30 odd years
    [cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]I still don't see why Britain's rule, which ceased many years ago, has anything to do with recent events in Iraq

    Who was that evil tyrant originally supported by?
  • [cite]Posted By: Stu of HU5[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]and more to do with being ran by a murdering tyrant for 30 odd years
    [cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]I still don't see why Britain's rule, which ceased many years ago, has anything to do with recent events in Iraq

    Who was that evil tyrant originally supported by?

    Palace ultras?
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