Don't get too excited folks. I don't have a model for the Irish National, though there are positive stats aplenty and a light weight is certainly one of them.
Quite simply I cannot bear the possibility (no matter how remote) of Golden Kite (10-02) doing the biz tomorrow at Fairyhouse having watched him sink (almost) without trace at Aintree and, especially as he has his good ground once again but this time at a RH track (his best form is going clockwise), in time honoured fashion I shall of course be following him over the proverbial cliff and have a taste of the 33's each way (1-5 places) with Mr Power.
Edit - Make that 40's with the good folks of Bet365
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I expect Plaaayer will be on to this!
Oh Lord.
Who do you fancy ISLS?
You won't get bigger than 1.01 on Betfair that Beautiful Sound (2nd Reserve and Ante Post Favourite) gets in. One may well be stablemate Backstage and I'm sure that a runner from Gordon Elliott's friendly "neighbours" will either step on a stone, get cast in their box, suddenly go lame or get caught up in the traffic to enable its participation.
Even though I believe that Bet 365 won't levy a Rule 4 deduction (don't quote me on that) the question of the horse's participation rather clouds the market.
Cheers!
No, no guys. This isn't a tip, it's the product of a sick mind.
a) By virtue of selecting him (albeit as a 590/1 long shot - odds that subsequently proved to be a tad mean) for Aintree, getting several people hyperventilating about him beforehand and then watching him struggle round like he had me and Plaaayer on his back, if I don't back him tomorrow obviously he will do the biz and I will be as sick as a proverbial.
b) If I do back him he will, of course, run another stinker but I can bear the cost of b) more than the despair of a).
c) However, if I back him then of course there is the slight chance (no matter how slender) that somehow he comes home in front (probably some Foinavon-like pile-up intervening to speed him past his rivals). But then I can hardly admit to Plaaayer, Curb_It and AllezLesAddicks that he'd been carrying a shilling or two of mine but I hadn't tipped them the wink. Ergo, the post.
Blimey, thank God it’s the flat season.
It'd be rude not to join you on this. Some very sound logic too as the reasoning behind it. Done
Merde.......gonna be quite a few bodies piling up at the foot of this cliff.
Edit - hopefully Some Target or Deal Done to supply a parachute
Haha - the economist in me made me have a nibble at Deal Done - so I'm glad I fluked into a Peanuts selection.
Also had a go at Quantitativeeasing for the same reason - does it have much chance or are the odds so low purely due to the McCoy factor?
Sorry….I told you I was hopeless on the Irish National allez (I'm definitely a one-trick pony) though I did back Bluesea Cracker last year (the mud makes it easier to put lines through a load of them of course). Timbera carried 10-12 to win in 2003 since when 10-08 is the max weight carried to victory (I think) but he's only got 10-09 and a Henderson, McManus, McCoy combo has always got a damn good chance.
Good luck and, as you say, let's hope we have a double (a few years ago, who'd have thought we'd see the day when the only thing we have to play for is to dent the play-off hopes of.......Rochdale.......gasp)
Trying to follow up your non tip on Golden Kite, I managed to put a fiver each way on Or Noir De Somoza (I must have pressed the wrong button).
Is it any good?
Does it stand any chance?
Should I Lay another bet on Golden Kite as a saver?
25 runners in this race and I reckon I can only put a line through only one of 'em. Guess which one ;o)
Well, I've done Some Target and Deal Done as my savers for my Obsessive Compulsive wager on GK. Gawd knows who you should plump for.
ISLS & allezlesaddicks both fancy QE - he could be the hero come 5pm.
Bang goes the mortgage for another month then! ; )
Hang on a minute, is there more than one tip here?
What are the odds on Obsessive Compulsive?
;o)
Daft isn't it AA? Aintree settles the final GN field the day before but you think that maybe 9am on the morning of the race would be better as there's always a chance that a horse doesn't eat up or gets cast Friday night and it’s still reasonably early for the day of race market.
But the Irish allowing reserves in up to an hour before the first race is simply bonkers.
Got a fancy? Holding off till 1.35? For me, it's one of those things where I'll never win either way, either a deduction or the price of mine will be much shorter after 1.35 anyway (though maybe not the likes of GK!).
When will we know if Beautiful Sound is a runner.
Is there a cut off time?
This is all Chris Powell's fault. You guys should all have other things on your mind on a matchday.
1.35 (an hour before the first race), though as AA suggests, it probably needs only 1 to come out as Elliott has Backstage currently in the line-up who would no doubt be scratched.
T.C.E aptly called it a "non-tip" nolly but good luck to you, you've got a nice looking saver.
If he hadn't run at Aintree I'd feel pretty positive about him. RP's Spotlight says he was "predictably outclassed" in the GN – strikes me as a bit of a lazy comment because he clearly didn't handle the fences (not quite the same as being outclassed as there have been plenty of good horses, including Irish National winners, that haven't taken to them). Of course he's off a 7lb higher mark than when winning the Munster National but if he's in top order (that is the big IF, as you say, because he did complete at Aintree, to his credit) he could go well for a long way on this ground……God, what am I saying????