One Irish contender for the GN very sadly departed on Tuesday but another very much arrived today with a major chance at Aintree. Sunnyhillboy's win in the Kim Muir carrying 11.11, with other elements of his profile, gives him a big chance on decent ground at Aintree where he is due to carry 10.05 (2lbs lower mark). Was generally 33/1 this morning and Bet365 (paying 5th place for e/w already) is one of three bookies still offering 25/1 (others 16~20/1). Becauseicouldntsee ran a great race in 2nd and could figure prominently at Aintree but his early fall last year is a big negative stat and my model suggests that he's limited to place potential.
Watching Burton Port very closely in the Gold Cup. The next Golden Miller? First leg tomorrow.
No question that if Synchronised wins or goes close he will have the stats to acquire that tag. Personally, at best, I see him staying on past tiring horses up the hill maybe for a minor place, as top staying handicappers often do in the Gold Cup, but the quality of his Lexus win on "good" [time suggests plenty of cut though] ground (in which he was off the bridle a mile from home) in a time slower than the novices ran over the same trip that day (he would have finished 4th in that novice chase on time) leads me to believe that he has no chance of defeating the best of his rivals today without several mishaps. I just hope he doesn't hit the deck going at a pace that may really test his jumping style over Cheltenham's fences. Even if he's well beaten in the GC, he's still got a great chance to win a GN on soft ground, even as topweight.
Fantastic performance from Synchronised in the GC - a truly gutsy horse ridden by a truly exceptional jockey. Stunning. Question has to be whether Jonjo thinks he can freshen him enough in time to line up at Aintree. In any event, I shall do my utmost to ensure that the prior post is the only piece of utter horsedung that I contribute to this thread. I'm off to crunch the stats.
Would be a stat-buster to carry 11.10 to win it aswell of course (apart from Red Rum, not since 1950 has a winner carried more than 11.07). Golden Miller's the only horse to win both in the same season, in 1934 (carried 12.02 in the GN). So from that point of view you're right. But, if you take account of near-misses as my model does (because 6 lengths is nothing in staying chases), 3 horses have come mighty close to doing it in the last 21 years: 1991: Garrison Savannah won GC, 2nd (5L) in GN - only lost lead last 100 yds [carried 11.01] 1996: Rough Quest 2nd (4L) in GC, won GN [10.07] 2006: Hedgehunter 2nd (2.5L) in GC, 2nd (6L) in GN [11.12] Obviously would take an exceptional horse to do a Golden Miller but there's an unusually long break to Aintree this year and Synchronised's stats are looking stellar. An amazing thought is that, after Phil Smith's reviewed the race, Synchronised could be both top-weight and the most "well-in" horse in the race. But will he run?
To put Synchronised's GN stats in perspective. Having updated it for this afternoon's astonishing GC victory, on Good ground, his least favourable going, his GN stat-score (as rated by my model) is the best since Rough Quest's in 1996. His stat-score on Soft is off the scale, surpassing even Earth Summit's in the mud of 1998. But, again, will he run?
.....on Good ground, his [Synchronised's] least favourable going, his GN stat-score (as rated by my model) is the best since Rough Quest's in 1996....
Having said that, Sunnyhillboy's GN stat-score on good ground is only a smidge lower and he remains best-priced 25/1..........a JP 1-2 maybe.
Meanwhile, West End Rocker doesn't run in the Midlands National tomorrow. Yet another JP GN entry, Arbor Supreme does but even if he won it he wouldn't enter calculations for Aintree given two prior failures.
This is one competitive National (with or without Synchronised)
"Connections of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised have not ruled out a crack at next month's John Smith's Grand National at Aintree....... Trainer Jonjo O'Neill said: "He looks OK. He's in the National but it's too early to say at the moment. I'll have to have a conversation with Frank Berry (racing manager for owner JP McManus). We will probably have more of an idea how he's come out of the race after the weekend. He's eaten up and he's looking well."
If he runs, despite attempting to be the first horse to win with 11.10+ for 38 years and the first for 78 years to do the GC/GN same-season double, he is a must-back on any ground, according to my model.
Betfair punters seem to be assumng a no-show or maybe just doing some prudent profit-taking - well offered 28-29. Best price at the bookies seems to be 14/1 Stan James, some as short as 8/1.
Message to Jonjo & JP (who of course lost Garde Champetre today). PLEASE do not run Synchronised in the Gold Cup. He stands NO chance in it on quick ground. There are Nationals to be won, weather permitting.
Message to Jonjo & JP (who of course lost Garde Champetre today). PLEASE do not run Synchronised in the Gold Cup. He stands NO chance in it on quick ground. There are Nationals to be won, weather permitting.
Is the Great Man's crown slipping?
I'm hanging my head in shame for doubting the horse and above all AP. Amazing and well-deserved win. Large helpings of humble pie indeed. No stat-model for the GC unfortunately. Just reinforces the need to keep my subjective opinions to myself and stick to my system for the big one.............a man's got to know his limitations.
Just pulling your wotsit Peanuts. Looking forward to seeing your final selections. When can we expect them?
My wotsit's a bit deflated after a pretty dismal Cheltenham I can tell you - fortunately my spreadsheet's functioning quite perkily :0) Working my way through an update to the stats now. There's another forfeit stage on Tuesday and hopefully by the end of the week I'll be posting my model's final selections.
.....on Good ground, his [Synchronised's] least favourable going, his GN stat-score (as rated by my model) is the best since Rough Quest's in 1996....
Having said that, Sunnyhillboy's GN stat-score on good ground is only a smidge lower and he remains best-priced 25/1..........a JP 1-2 maybe.
Meanwhile, West End Rocker doesn't run in the Midlands National tomorrow. Yet another JP GN entry, Arbor Supreme does but even if he won it he wouldn't enter calculations for Aintree given two prior failures.
This is one competitive National (with or without Synchronised)
I did Sunnyhill boy 25/1 with b365 today NRNB - Cheers PM!
I did Sunnyhill boy 25/1 with b365 today NRNB - Cheers PM!
....may have the added bonus of AP on board. Watch the price collapse if so...
From the Guardian online at 9.30 this evening (Chris Cook having visited Jonjo's yard today):
"Synchronised is still entered for the Aintree race on 14 April and the month's gap between races means he could yet try to be the first horse since Golden Miller in 1934 to win both races in the same year. But Synchronised has tended to need a gap between his races and O'Neill, while pleased with the way the horse has recovered from Friday's action, seems inclined to be cautious. Another of his Festival winners, Sunnyhillboy, seems the more likely of the two to be McCoy's mount at this stage."
This years Grand National will be the last on the BBC. As rumoured last week C4 has secured the rights to all terrestrial TV rights in a new 4 year deal. So Royal Ascot and the Derby will go to C4 too. C4's coverage and team are very good and they give plenty of times to meetings and not just a couple of minutes either side of a race. However the Grand National was a very BBC thing and I'll miss it. I'm sure C4 will do a good job though, in retrospect I felt the same when they took Cheltenham from the BBC about 15 years ago but to be fair their coverage is excellent.
Synchronised and the other GC runners (Burton Port, Weird Al and Midnight Chase) all among thr 59 that remain entered for the GN entries after today's forfeit stage. More to follow. Synchronised matched at 150 on Betfair prior to suspension.
Is that why betfair suspended the market then? How comes none of the of exchanges suspended?
No, it's always suspended when the fofeit, confirmation, dec stages are pending announcement. Nothing sinister about Synchronised's trade - just a sign that someone's decided he ain't going to run.
A nice 4th in the JLT should keep him competitive for Aintree
From Racing Post:
Quantitativeeasing, who failed to qualify for the Grand National when unplaced in Cheltenham's JLT Speciality Chase, has been scratched, while Hold On Julio, a disappointing favourite for the same race, is the shortest-price defector. He had been available to back at 25-1.
Also now out of the National are Tartak, Hector's Choice, Massini's Maguire, Crescent Island, Stewart's House, Uncle Junior, Fair Along, Shakervilz, Wymott, Backstage, Some Target, Schindler's Gold, King Fontaine, Minella Theatre, the recently retired Niche Market and Scotsirish, who lost his life at Cheltenham.
Comments
Becauseicouldntsee ran a great race in 2nd and could figure prominently at Aintree but his early fall last year is a big negative stat and my model suggests that he's limited to place potential.
Watching Burton Port very closely in the Gold Cup. The next Golden Miller? First leg tomorrow.
No question that if Synchronised wins or goes close he will have the stats to acquire that tag. Personally, at best, I see him staying on past tiring horses up the hill maybe for a minor place, as top staying handicappers often do in the Gold Cup, but the quality of his Lexus win on "good" [time suggests plenty of cut though] ground (in which he was off the bridle a mile from home) in a time slower than the novices ran over the same trip that day (he would have finished 4th in that novice chase on time) leads me to believe that he has no chance of defeating the best of his rivals today without several mishaps. I just hope he doesn't hit the deck going at a pace that may really test his jumping style over Cheltenham's fences. Even if he's well beaten in the GC, he's still got a great chance to win a GN on soft ground, even as topweight.
In any event, I shall do my utmost to ensure that the prior post is the only piece of utter horsedung that I contribute to this thread. I'm off to crunch the stats.
Golden Miller's the only horse to win both in the same season, in 1934 (carried 12.02 in the GN). So from that point of view you're right. But, if you take account of near-misses as my model does (because 6 lengths is nothing in staying chases), 3 horses have come mighty close to doing it in the last 21 years:
1991: Garrison Savannah won GC, 2nd (5L) in GN - only lost lead last 100 yds [carried 11.01]
1996: Rough Quest 2nd (4L) in GC, won GN [10.07]
2006: Hedgehunter 2nd (2.5L) in GC, 2nd (6L) in GN [11.12]
Obviously would take an exceptional horse to do a Golden Miller but there's an unusually long break to Aintree this year and Synchronised's stats are looking stellar.
An amazing thought is that, after Phil Smith's reviewed the race, Synchronised could be both top-weight and the most "well-in" horse in the race.
But will he run?
But, again, will he run?
Meanwhile, West End Rocker doesn't run in the Midlands National tomorrow. Yet another JP GN entry, Arbor Supreme does but even if he won it he wouldn't enter calculations for Aintree given two prior failures.
This is one competitive National (with or without Synchronised)
"Connections of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised have not ruled out a crack at next month's John Smith's Grand National at Aintree.......
Trainer Jonjo O'Neill said: "He looks OK. He's in the National but it's too early to say at the moment. I'll have to have a conversation with Frank Berry (racing manager for owner JP McManus). We will probably have more of an idea how he's come out of the race after the weekend. He's eaten up and he's looking well."
If he runs, despite attempting to be the first horse to win with 11.10+ for 38 years and the first for 78 years to do the GC/GN same-season double, he is a must-back on any ground, according to my model.
Betfair punters seem to be assumng a no-show or maybe just doing some prudent profit-taking - well offered 28-29. Best price at the bookies seems to be 14/1 Stan James, some as short as 8/1.
No stat-model for the GC unfortunately. Just reinforces the need to keep my subjective opinions to myself and stick to my system for the big one.............a man's got to know his limitations.
Working my way through an update to the stats now. There's another forfeit stage on Tuesday and hopefully by the end of the week I'll be posting my model's final selections.
From the Guardian online at 9.30 this evening (Chris Cook having visited Jonjo's yard today):
"Synchronised is still entered for the Aintree race on 14 April and the month's gap between races means he could yet try to be the first horse since Golden Miller in 1934 to win both races in the same year. But Synchronised has tended to need a gap between his races and O'Neill, while pleased with the way the horse has recovered from Friday's action, seems inclined to be cautious. Another of his Festival winners, Sunnyhillboy, seems the more likely of the two to be McCoy's mount at this stage."
C4's coverage and team are very good and they give plenty of times to meetings and not just a couple of minutes either side of a race. However the Grand National was a very BBC thing and I'll miss it. I'm sure C4 will do a good job though, in retrospect I felt the same when they took Cheltenham from the BBC about 15 years ago but to be fair their coverage is excellent.
Synchronised matched at 150 on Betfair prior to suspension.
A nice 4th in the JLT should keep him competitive for Aintree
Quantitativeeasing, who failed to qualify for the Grand National when unplaced in Cheltenham's JLT Speciality Chase, has been scratched, while Hold On Julio, a disappointing favourite for the same race, is the shortest-price defector. He had been available to back at 25-1.
Also now out of the National are Tartak, Hector's Choice, Massini's Maguire, Crescent Island, Stewart's House, Uncle Junior, Fair Along, Shakervilz, Wymott, Backstage, Some Target, Schindler's Gold, King Fontaine, Minella Theatre, the recently retired Niche Market and Scotsirish, who lost his life at Cheltenham.
Synchronised now back at 29 on Betfair