I don't know about "intelligent punters" as I certainly don't include myself there.
You are right about being handy as, unless it runs out to be a bog, the day when less fancied (aka donkeys) could outstay their shorter priced rivals are long gone. As for the cross country it always seems to be run with the last two furlong sprint up the hill in mind which is why I suspect you get the same sort of animals winning those race.
Notwithstanding this, as I have the utmost faith in your thought process, I have had a tenner at 120 on Betfair and providing I remember to do so will include Scotsirish with my two Antepost selections (Cappa Bleu & Burton Port) in F/C and T/C combos. Providing they all make it to post that is!
Absolutely fair point about the pace at which X-Cs are run, though the Festival X-C is usually a truer test these days as classier horses have come to try their hand in recent years. We'll see how he fares but it is a strange contrast to the reverence that the racing media attachs to quiet PtP and hurdle preps for the GN that it tends to dismiss X-Cs altogether. Scotsirish obviously has a very different profile to Silver Birch but it's amusing to re-read the Racing Post journo's summary of SB's 3.5length 2nd in the Festival X-C on Soft in 2007, when trained by Gordon Elliott, the chief exponent of the "stealth prep": "Silver Birch is eyeing the Grand National in which he has 10st 6lb, and he certainly jumped nimbly here and showed his stamina, rallying after being short of room in the final bend squeeze between the first three. The 2006 Welsh National winner is 6lb higher in the ratings than when slogging home at Chepstow and therein lies his chances as he is basically a slowboat and would need similar and unlikely underfoot conditions at Aintree. Even the 40-1 pre-race offer from Totesport made no appeal so the 25-1 now should be shunned." 32 days later, on Good ground, he won the GN at 33/1, just holding off my boy McKelvey. That 2nd in the Festival X-C was the closest SB had come to winning since the Welsh National over 2 years before and for that season he had been on a diet of X-C, interspersed with the occasional hurdle and PtP (in true Gordon Elliott style). It was at that point that I decided, for purposes of the model, not to treat X-C as irrelevant. Scotsirish most certainly is not a Silver Birch and time will tell whether he does indeed have the stamina for the job at Aintree but there are promising signs in his 6 runs at 3miles+ in conventional and X-C chases and those 2 runs over the GN fences in quickish Tophams, also with biggish weights, are certainly a plus. Cheers for the show of faith AA. He'll only be one of my team but I very much hope he does the biz.
PS Just looking at last year' Festival X-C over 31 furlongs, they clocked a pace of 15.68 secs per furlong on Good-to-Firm (obviously have to take that going description at face value). A GN on GF would clock around 9 mins (15 secs per furlong). Obviously the GN's another 5f and over 36 furlongs a difference even of 0.68 secs/f represents a big margin but you have to bear in mind that they don't get into a galloping and jumping rhythm in a X-C as they do over conventional fences (happily, we know that Scotsirish is capable of getting into that rhythm over the GN fences) so it is kind of comparing apples and oranges to make a strict time comparison but that proves your point aswell of course. Notwithstanding the fact, as a result, that X-Cs often end with several in a sprint finish, the use I make of them in the model is qualified in that a horse has to have shown that he is capable at 3m+ at Class 1/Grade A level over conventional fences (which he has done twice with 11.10 and on sft~heavy). If that box is ticked, the model accepts competitive c.4mile X-Cs as a stamina test of a type. Maybe that'll be proved hopelessly wrong.......I've banged on about him so much he's bound to come a cropper ;o( .......or Mullins will scratch him (again!!)!!
Im on KillyGlen at 33/1 looked to have been laid out for this race as connections have ran him mainly over hurdles to get him in at a good weight. Looked to be staying on well with a great chance in the national last year, 10-5 will be a great weight to carry and has Previous winning form around Aintree in a Grade 1 race.
Another very much to be respected. That Class 1 win as a novice was over the Mildmay course but no matter, he was going very well indeed when he tipped up 4 out last year (not convinced myself that he would have troubled the front 2 but who's to know?). He's by Presenting, sire of Ballabriggs, so appreciates good ground. Actually he is due to carry 10.04 this time (10.10 last year) and he's put in some decent performances this season without getting his head in front, particularly his 6-length 2nd to Cappa Bleu (giving him 1lb but receiving 6lbs from him in the GN). From a stats point of view, if he could put in a win or near-miss as his prep, he would certainly look good for another bold show (and if it were in a Class 1 at 3m+ he'd have possible winner's stats). He's not going to Cheltenham and has no current entries but, with good ground likely for a while, I reckon the Midlands National at Uttoxeter would be a great prep for him (4 weeks before the big one) - Lord Gyllene and Mon Mome both ran in it before their GN wins - but who knows what the plans are? In any event, best of luck.
Ground probably too fast at Donny for West End Rocker to run in Saturday's Grimthorpe Chase (King will decide later today) and he will now probably go straight to Aintree without a prep. Bad news from a "red-line" stats perspective (2 prior runs in season and 133 since last): since (at least) 1988 no GN winner has gone there without a post-weights' prep (49 is the most days since last run) and only Miinnehoma had as few as 2 prior runs. Re-assuringly, however, several GN near-misses support him using a "points-based" stats model: Clan Royal (3-length 2nd to Amberleigh House and arguably would have won if his jockey hadn't dropped his whip 5 out since he wandered and lost the lead in the run-in) went there with only 1 prior season run, like West End Rocker winning the Becher Chase 4 months before. Mely Moss went down by just 1.25 lengths to Papillon and hadn't run that season at all. Durham Edition (0.75L 2nd to Mr Frisk) 102 days since last and, of course, stalwart State Of Play has been placed (16~25L) last 3 years on the trot with 99, 133 and 365 day gaps. So not ideal but better than running and falling (or getting jarred up of course) and my model still rates West End Rocker a definite winning candidate on any ground (best chance if not either extreme).
Ballabriggs was my first GN winner last year...just the tenner on the nose but was the only bet I made so here's to continuing the streak this time
Got a chance. 4 of the last 7 GN winners to return the following year have been placed: Montys Pass 4th (34L) with 11.10; Hedgehunter 2nd (6L) 11.12; Comply Or Die 2nd (12L) 11.06; Dont Push It 3rd (14L) 11.10 and the frequency seems to be increasing. Top weight having been reduced in recent years to 11.10 (11 years ago it was 12.00) and the compression of the weights is most certainly having an effect. I would venture to suggest that these days a stat-busting winner is more likely to be one with 11.06+, maybe even topweight (if it were to be this year: probably Burton Port or Ballabriggs on good; Synchronised or Neptune Collonges on soft) than one from down the card.
Every year this thread is a brilliant read. i know next to nothing about racing yet i go to the pub, quote some things from here to my mates who are into the gg's, and all of a sudden I'm the font of all knowledge. last year i got a buzz just because golden kite made the race. i take my hat off to you PM. Everytime you post a new indepth stat on this, i picture the scene from a beautiful mind with post it notes everywhere.
I'm exactly the same. I think Scotsirish is this years Golden Kite!
I hope not mate. GK's goose was cooked at the first fence - you could see the gob-smacked look on his face as he got to it - "Begorrah, what the fook'n 'ell's this?" [pardon my brogue].
Every year this thread is a brilliant read. i know next to nothing about racing yet i go to the pub, quote some things from here to my mates who are into the gg's, and all of a sudden I'm the font of all knowledge. last year i got a buzz just because golden kite made the race. i take my hat off to you PM. Everytime you post a new indepth stat on this, i picture the scene from a beautiful mind with post it notes everywhere.
Cheers PBS, glad you find it entertaining - will soften the blow when the day comes that it falls over. Till then my 3,345Kb spreadsheet will just keep expanding.
PS Though I suspect Mrs Molloy wouldn't mind exchanging me for Russell Crowe ;o(
An update following yesterday's races involving GN entries, starting with what (to me) was the most impressive run of the day.....not Junior at Donny but NICHE MARKET at Newbury.
Albeit in a veterans (10y-o+) Class 2 over 3m3f, he ran a cracker with 11.12 to finish 0.5L 2nd, giving 22lbs to the winner and looking like he wanted to go around again. They clocked a time 2.03 secs faster than standard, the only race of the day faster than std at Newbury. This and his 2nd on unsuitable heavy ground in the Becher in November are encouraging for the GN in which he carries 10.05, 8lbs less than last year (OR 7lbs lower) when, having raced up with the pace and leading 6 out he ran out of gas 2 out but plugged on to a 23-length 5th. A former Irish National winner and a son of Presenting (Ballabriggs' sire) he much prefers good ground and the weight drop could be enough to see him get the trip this time, given his ground; the main concern being whether, with his years and mileage (11y-o & 26 chases), he can go the pace to stay in touch on genuine good. From this point of view, some cut would assist. Stats-wise, my model suggests that on Good-to-Soft or better he's just short of a winning score but should run a big race, potentially finishing closer than last year. A far as I know (and as one would expect at this stage), Ruby Walsh hasn't hinted at his likely GN ride but, if the ground looked like being decent, he might surprise a lot of people and plump for Niche Market. Certainly Nicholls was delighted with this prep. HELLO BUD was well behind in 4th (I hope NT-D doesn't run him at Aintree - he really doesn't have it in him at 14) and FAIR ALONG (whose GN stats are good on decent ground but who's not a certain participant) had one of his increasingly frequent "not going-going-not going" days) and finished a remote 5th.
In other races on the Newbury card, ALWAYS WAINING and CRESCENT ISLAND didn't do their GN chances any damage - they were and they remain respectively nil and nil.
Up to Donny where West End Rocker was a non-runner in the Class 2 3.25 mile Grimthorpe. JUNIOR battled tenaciously to a "photo"-2nd, again in a fast time (3.7 secs fast), co-incidentally also conceding 22 lbs to the winner. It was indeed a fine run and predictably there was much rejoicing from the Pipe & Middleham Park Racing camps (the latter's horses never knowingly underhyped) and Ladbrokes and WH duly ran for cover and cut him to 10/1 joint-fav for the GN. Thommo injected some nonsense into the commentary about how Amberleigh House had won the Grimthorpe before winning the GN in 2004. Great stuff to cheer the Junior supporters....except that Amberleigh House actually finished 27-length 5th in the Grimthorpe that year. Now I have not forgotten that Oscar Time and my model were done last year by a former winner of the Kim Muir (Ballabriggs beat Faasel at the 2010 Festival) and it has not escaped my attention that Junior won the 2011 Kim Muir (beating........ouch......Faasel!). However, while my "tweaked" model suggests that Junior could give a bold show in the GN on decent ground, carrying 11.02 it doesn't rate his stats sufficient to do a Ballabriggs and his best finish should be 10-20 lengths behind the winner. From a subjective viewpoint, he looks a bit ungainly for a GN winner to me and I wonder how well he'll take to the fences, which demand that horses are not so much big but clever jumpers, able to "find a leg" when necessary. I tend to agree with the Racing Post summary of yesterday's run that he "is going to have to jump a bit better at Aintree, where he maybe found out by his relative lack of chasing experience." In the same race, NEPTUNE EQUESTER (56L 5th) can be bracketed with Always Waining and Crescent Island.
Finally, north of the border and the Class 2 2m7f Premier Chase at Kelso. ABBEYBRANEY's 5.75L 3rd (and a moderate time) raises a question over the quality of the form. The Racing Post considers that, with a new trainer, Abbeybraney has at the age of 11 rediscovered some of his former ability. I'm not entirely convinced myself. In any event, he is unlikely to make the cut for the GN and even less likely to make the frame. All eyes were on BALLABRIGGS who had this as his GN prep last year and finished 9.25L 4th of 5. It certainly looked like he has a lot of jumping cobwebs to blow away and he made a right mess of the 11th but ran well enough for his first competitive appearance since Aintree. Unlike the last 3 GN winners to make the frame the following year, who had run at least 3 times beforehand, Ballabriggs had been given a long break. Stats-wise he hasn't done enough (or had the opportunity to do enough) to compensate for carrying 11.09 and the model suggests a disappointment on his Aintree return. However, who would be so stupid as to argue with his trainer? If he can do a Red Rum (and I certainly would not say that he can't) I'll be tearing up the stat-model anyway (unless I simply add a substantial credit in future to any horse trained by a McCain). In the same race, ACCORDING TO PETE (4L 2nd) ran an reasonable prep despite a couple of sloppy jumps. He's handled a big step up in the handicap well this season and could run well at Aintree but the stats suggest that lack of experience will likely limit his potential to a place - for example, while he has won over Wetherby's stiff jumps and performed OK twice at Cheltenham, his experience at the leading jumps tracks is a little short (since 1988, 44 of the 45 GN winners and horses placed up to 10L had won or had strong performances (<6L from the winner or <10L in a Class 1 or Irish Grade A) over the GN fences or at at least one of Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury, Leopardstown or in the Irish National).
So, roughly when do you expect to be getting down to your final selections?
Also, was just wondering, but are you actually a Charlton fan? Not having a dig (honest!) but have just had a look back and have noticed that in our most successful season in ages you don't appear to have actually posted anything on here about Charlton, which seems a little bit strange. As I say, not having a dig - certainly not after you won me dough on last years National!
Hi Off_it Over 40 years Chief. I was there waving my inflatable haddock (I know it was sacrilege to use a Grimsby Town inflatable but someone b*st*rd had punctured my banana) on the glorious 5th Dec. Take a look further back and you'll see a reasonable number of CAFC-related postings. As in previous years, it's not until the dust has settled after Cheltenham that the final selections can be made because the stats can change for those currently on the radar screen and those off it. But if you have a look back you'll see some suggestions that might be worth some action. Cheers
Hi Off_it Over 40 years Chief. I was there waving my inflatable haddock (I know it was sacrilege to use a Grimsby Town inflatable but someone b*st*rd had punctured my banana) on the glorious 5th Dec. Take a look further back and you'll see a reasonable number of CAFC-related postings. As in previous years, it's not until the dust has settled after Cheltenham that the final selections can be made because the stats can change for those currently on the radar screen and those off it. But if you have a look back you'll see some suggestions that might be worth some action. Cheers
Cheers mate. But will wait for you to send me a private message with the winner before the odds come tumbling down, just like you did last year. ;o)
I wasn't impressed with Scots Irish's jumping over the cross country course in Ireland on his last outing.
He was a bit scratchy over the Punchestown banks course but, to be fair, he's relatively new to X-C. He's still won 2 from 3 and could well have won all 3 but for his jockey taking wrong course at Cheltenham. In 38 chases (35 chases over conventional fences) he has 1 F and 1 UR, the last being more than 3 years ago. That's a pretty good record of standing up for a horse that has raced at or close to the top level at 2-2.5 miles for much of his career. He has 2 good runs from 2 over the GN fences and has never PU'd. I certainly have a reservation about him in the GN but that is over stamina rather than jumping (of course now guaranteed he'll bury the jockey at the first).
PN re Saturday agree Niche Market was the stand out performance and it was interesting to hear Paul Nicholls pre race say the horse was in the best condition since it came to the yard. Junior stayed on well and did excellently to avoid the fallen horse at the last, a skill that could come in handy at Aintree!! Ballabiggs blew away alot of cobwebs and a few of my betting slips too! My GN main tip is Westend Rocker i believe one of your stats was that he could go on any ground? so was interesting to have him pulled put of the Grimthorpe due to the going? I am concerned about the lack of a prep run now!
Peanuts - I have been advised to have a few pennies each way on Chicago Grey from a connection of the trainer Gordon Elliott - they are plotting a Silver Birch type coup - what are your thoughts on him ??
PN re Saturday agree Niche Market was the stand out performance and it was interesting to hear Paul Nicholls pre race say the horse was in the best condition since it came to the yard. Junior stayed on well and did excellently to avoid the fallen horse at the last, a skill that could come in handy at Aintree!! Ballabiggs blew away alot of cobwebs and a few of my betting slips too! My GN main tip is Westend Rocker i believe one of your stats was that he could go on any ground? so was interesting to have him pulled put of the Grimthorpe due to the going? I am concerned about the lack of a prep run now!
Great point about Junior, he did sidestep Pentiffic very well, proving precisely why my subjective reservation about him is probably cobblers - now you know why I let stats govern my selections! Sometimes the stats tell you something that you have a gut feel isn't right but over the years I've always regretted going with my gut rather than the stats. So I'll shut up about Junior and just repeat that my stats-analysis says he can make a bold show providing it's not soft, but owing to a tad too much weight at 11.02 (he would need to be on 10.11 max to have a winning chance according to my model) he's probably limited to place potential. Agree with you about Ballabriggs aswell. That run will certainly bring him on. It's a dilemma with a GN winner that's going for back-to-back wins, how good a break for a re-charge should they have? - Hedgehunter had 4 runs, including 2nd in both the Irish Hennessy (55 days prior) and the Cheltenham Gold Cup (2.5L behind War Of Attrition, 22 days prior), before carrying 11.12 to beat all bar Numbersixvalverde in 2006. - Comply Or Die had 3 runs, the best being 25L 7th in the WH Trophy at the Festival before his 12-length 2nd to Mon Mome (carrying 11.06 but was perhaps a little flattered as the departure of Black Apalachi when leading at 2nd Becher and consequent drop in the sharp pace probably caused a few to be closer than they would otherwise). - Don't Push It had 4 runs, all hurdles including 23L 10th in a 3mile Class 1 at the Festival, before his 14.5-length 3rd last year carrying 11.10. In contrast, McCain obviously believes that a long break and a quietish pipe-opener is the way to go for Ballabriggs and he knows his horse. We'll find out in 40 days whether that's sufficient competitive prep. Re West End Rocker, I wouldn't be concerned about them pulling him out. The ground was very lively at Donny and I gather not in the greatest of knick, so why risk injury in a prep? It may not be optimal but WER will handle good ground - he's done so before against decent opposition. And you have to figure that Aintree want to minimise the risk of another furore and will ensure that the meeting and the GN start on safe ground. They've had no qualms about watering during the meeting before and they'll surely do it if the times of the Topham and Foxhunter tell them they need to to achieve no quicker than easy side of good for the big one. But maybe we'll have a wet early April and a mudbath! Re lack of prep run, please see the my post on 2nd March. Not ideal but not a disaster.
Peanuts - I have been advised to have a few pennies each way on Chicago Grey from a connection of the trainer Gordon Elliott - they are plotting a Silver Birch type coup - what are your thoughts on him ??
A couple of general comments before giving my model's rating of Chicago Grey.
- If I say that my model doesn't rate the chances of any horse, I'm honestly not trying to persuade anyone not to back that horse. I'm simply telling you why I won't be backing it. But there's more than one way to make a profit as a punter from a horserace and I'm not pretending that my model trumps anyone's good judgement. I'm fully prepared to eat humble pie and congratulate the backers of any of the 40 runners that does the biz. No undeserving horse wins this race and if the model doesn't identify the winner, unless there was a mass melee as in the Foinavaon and Red Marauder races, there's either a flaw in the model and that's my mistake, pure and simple, or I'd have to conclude that it is an outlier that defies most or all stats-based systems (depending on the going, a win by any of, I reckon, 65-75% of the field would constitute the latter). - Gordon Elliott, in addition to having a GN win to his credit, is a very astute trainer and, probably like 99% of the racing community, would surely say that a stat-based system of making GN selections is ludicrous (no doubt expressed more fruitily than that). Naturally I take a different view and have put a fair bit of work into my model over the years and it's had a decent run: getting the winner (x4) and/or 2nd (x3) in each of the last 6 years (and showing a profit with an each-way strategy in all). So, unsurprisingly, I'm going to stick with its purely objective selections (even if they seem improbable to others or even to me) and avoid horses that it doesn't rate (no matter if they're strongly fancied by the market or even if my gut or heart are telling me to back them). - BUT, as sure as eggs is eggs, it is going to crash and burn one year - maybe this one.
So...Chicago Grey (best-priced 25/1 with the bookies):
I really would not want to put you off following a tip from a connection (frankly, if I were you I would back him) but, since you ask, my model currently isn't keen on CG's chances, specifically because: - He UR'd at Cheltenham last October and is penalised (a little) for not having a good enough run over fences since in 4 attempts to re-assure on his jumping. His 2nd over an inadequate 2.5 miles in his last run looks OK on paper but I watched that race and he made a right horlicks of the last fence and the jockey did amazingly not to come off. - It may well be thought that no wins from 5 runs this season (closest 15 lengths away) is consistent with keeping a handicap mark down and a potential coup. Maybe so, but all I can say is that it isn't consistent with a GN winner's stats (and is a meaningful negative) - since 1988 no horse that won the GN or finished within 10 lengths (45 of them in total) and that had 3+ prior runs that season had failed to have a win or a finish within 5 lengths. With a string of 5 defeats, it would be a further negative if CG doesn't have a prep 35 days or less prior to the big day. Since 1988 (excl Red Marauder), only 2 GN winners had their last prep more than 35 days prior and both were won (Hedgehunter won the Bobbyjo and Comply Or Die won the Eider). - Which brings me to the comparison with Silver Birch, whose pre-GN victory campaign included 1 PtP, 1 hurdle and 2 X-C (an Elliott-style "stealth-prep" indeed). He finished no more than 10-lengths behind the winner in all 4 races and in his last, the Festival X-C over c.4 miles (32 days before the GN), was a 3.5L 2nd. - CG's main positive is obviously his win in the 4 mile amateur riders' novice chase at last year's Festival, beating the subsequent Scottish National winner. Taking that at face value suggests that he should get the trip in the GN (and the model gives him a credit for that) but the time was on the slow side for the good going (which forfeits an extra credit). A 20% win ratio (incl near-misses) from chases at 3miles+ is at the bottom end of the range by GN standards. SB was a former Welsh National winner on heavy and a proven stayer (46% win & near-miss ratio at 3m+). He also had a Becher Chase win over the GN fences on soft to his credit. CG is yet to run at Aintree. Indeed, he is usually taken down early to the start, which suggests a tendency to get a bit warm and/or moody. That may be very difficult to manage at the GN. - If he could get a win or near-miss in a final prep, the stats would improve appreciably (especially if it were, say, in the Midlands National) but even so he probably wouldn't have enough to make my model's shortlist, though if it were in a race like the Mid Nat it could be close.
One final stat, though not one that my model takes accounts of. The last grey to win the GN was Nicolaus Silver in 1961 (though King Johns Castle [2008] and Suny Bay [1997 and 1998] have been 2nd).
And one final, final word of caution. It was a similar story for Backstage last year, after he was effectively brought down when in touch well into the 2nd circuit in the 2010 GN; an Elliott stealth-campaign (culminating in x2 PtPs) would protect his handicap mark and give him a great chance. He went off 16/1, carrying 10.12 (2lbs less than in 2010 but same OR) but was never in contention (68L 10th).
Comments
"Silver Birch is eyeing the Grand National in which he has 10st 6lb, and he certainly jumped nimbly here and showed his stamina, rallying after being short of room in the final bend squeeze between the first three. The 2006 Welsh National winner is 6lb higher in the ratings than when slogging home at Chepstow and therein lies his chances as he is basically a slowboat and would need similar and unlikely underfoot conditions at Aintree. Even the 40-1 pre-race offer from Totesport made no appeal so the 25-1 now should be shunned."
32 days later, on Good ground, he won the GN at 33/1, just holding off my boy McKelvey.
That 2nd in the Festival X-C was the closest SB had come to winning since the Welsh National over 2 years before and for that season he had been on a diet of X-C, interspersed with the occasional hurdle and PtP (in true Gordon Elliott style). It was at that point that I decided, for purposes of the model, not to treat X-C as irrelevant.
Scotsirish most certainly is not a Silver Birch and time will tell whether he does indeed have the stamina for the job at Aintree but there are promising signs in his 6 runs at 3miles+ in conventional and X-C chases and those 2 runs over the GN fences in quickish Tophams, also with biggish weights, are certainly a plus.
Cheers for the show of faith AA. He'll only be one of my team but I very much hope he does the biz.
PS Just looking at last year' Festival X-C over 31 furlongs, they clocked a pace of 15.68 secs per furlong on Good-to-Firm (obviously have to take that going description at face value). A GN on GF would clock around 9 mins (15 secs per furlong). Obviously the GN's another 5f and over 36 furlongs a difference even of 0.68 secs/f represents a big margin but you have to bear in mind that they don't get into a galloping and jumping rhythm in a X-C as they do over conventional fences (happily, we know that Scotsirish is capable of getting into that rhythm over the GN fences) so it is kind of comparing apples and oranges to make a strict time comparison but that proves your point aswell of course. Notwithstanding the fact, as a result, that X-Cs often end with several in a sprint finish, the use I make of them in the model is qualified in that a horse has to have shown that he is capable at 3m+ at Class 1/Grade A level over conventional fences (which he has done twice with 11.10 and on sft~heavy). If that box is ticked, the model accepts competitive c.4mile X-Cs as a stamina test of a type. Maybe that'll be proved hopelessly wrong.......I've banged on about him so much he's bound to come a cropper ;o( .......or Mullins will scratch him (again!!)!!
I'm going to have to start a Chelts thread
Bad news from a "red-line" stats perspective (2 prior runs in season and 133 since last): since (at least) 1988 no GN winner has gone there without a post-weights' prep (49 is the most days since last run) and only Miinnehoma had as few as 2 prior runs.
Re-assuringly, however, several GN near-misses support him using a "points-based" stats model: Clan Royal (3-length 2nd to Amberleigh House and arguably would have won if his jockey hadn't dropped his whip 5 out since he wandered and lost the lead in the run-in) went there with only 1 prior season run, like West End Rocker winning the Becher Chase 4 months before. Mely Moss went down by just 1.25 lengths to Papillon and hadn't run that season at all. Durham Edition (0.75L 2nd to Mr Frisk) 102 days since last and, of course, stalwart State Of Play has been placed (16~25L) last 3 years on the trot with 99, 133 and 365 day gaps.
So not ideal but better than running and falling (or getting jarred up of course) and my model still rates West End Rocker a definite winning candidate on any ground (best chance if not either extreme).
Top weight having been reduced in recent years to 11.10 (11 years ago it was 12.00) and the compression of the weights is most certainly having an effect. I would venture to suggest that these days a stat-busting winner is more likely to be one with 11.06+, maybe even topweight (if it were to be this year: probably Burton Port or Ballabriggs on good; Synchronised or Neptune Collonges on soft) than one from down the card.
i know next to nothing about racing yet i go to the pub, quote some things from here to my mates who are into the gg's, and all of a sudden I'm the font of all knowledge.
last year i got a buzz just because golden kite made the race.
i take my hat off to you PM.
Everytime you post a new indepth stat on this, i picture the scene from a beautiful mind with post it notes everywhere.
PS Though I suspect Mrs Molloy wouldn't mind exchanging me for Russell Crowe ;o(
Albeit in a veterans (10y-o+) Class 2 over 3m3f, he ran a cracker with 11.12 to finish 0.5L 2nd, giving 22lbs to the winner and looking like he wanted to go around again. They clocked a time 2.03 secs faster than standard, the only race of the day faster than std at Newbury.
This and his 2nd on unsuitable heavy ground in the Becher in November are encouraging for the GN in which he carries 10.05, 8lbs less than last year (OR 7lbs lower) when, having raced up with the pace and leading 6 out he ran out of gas 2 out but plugged on to a 23-length 5th.
A former Irish National winner and a son of Presenting (Ballabriggs' sire) he much prefers good ground and the weight drop could be enough to see him get the trip this time, given his ground; the main concern being whether, with his years and mileage (11y-o & 26 chases), he can go the pace to stay in touch on genuine good. From this point of view, some cut would assist.
Stats-wise, my model suggests that on Good-to-Soft or better he's just short of a winning score but should run a big race, potentially finishing closer than last year.
A far as I know (and as one would expect at this stage), Ruby Walsh hasn't hinted at his likely GN ride but, if the ground looked like being decent, he might surprise a lot of people and plump for Niche Market. Certainly Nicholls was delighted with this prep.
HELLO BUD was well behind in 4th (I hope NT-D doesn't run him at Aintree - he really doesn't have it in him at 14) and FAIR ALONG (whose GN stats are good on decent ground but who's not a certain participant) had one of his increasingly frequent "not going-going-not going" days) and finished a remote 5th.
In other races on the Newbury card, ALWAYS WAINING and CRESCENT ISLAND didn't do their GN chances any damage - they were and they remain respectively nil and nil.
Up to Donny where West End Rocker was a non-runner in the Class 2 3.25 mile Grimthorpe.
JUNIOR battled tenaciously to a "photo"-2nd, again in a fast time (3.7 secs fast), co-incidentally also conceding 22 lbs to the winner. It was indeed a fine run and predictably there was much rejoicing from the Pipe & Middleham Park Racing camps (the latter's horses never knowingly underhyped) and Ladbrokes and WH duly ran for cover and cut him to 10/1 joint-fav for the GN. Thommo injected some nonsense into the commentary about how Amberleigh House had won the Grimthorpe before winning the GN in 2004. Great stuff to cheer the Junior supporters....except that Amberleigh House actually finished 27-length 5th in the Grimthorpe that year.
Now I have not forgotten that Oscar Time and my model were done last year by a former winner of the Kim Muir (Ballabriggs beat Faasel at the 2010 Festival) and it has not escaped my attention that Junior won the 2011 Kim Muir (beating........ouch......Faasel!). However, while my "tweaked" model suggests that Junior could give a bold show in the GN on decent ground, carrying 11.02 it doesn't rate his stats sufficient to do a Ballabriggs and his best finish should be 10-20 lengths behind the winner. From a subjective viewpoint, he looks a bit ungainly for a GN winner to me and I wonder how well he'll take to the fences, which demand that horses are not so much big but clever jumpers, able to "find a leg" when necessary. I tend to agree with the Racing Post summary of yesterday's run that he "is going to have to jump a bit better at Aintree, where he maybe found out by his relative lack of chasing experience."
In the same race, NEPTUNE EQUESTER (56L 5th) can be bracketed with Always Waining and Crescent Island.
Finally, north of the border and the Class 2 2m7f Premier Chase at Kelso. ABBEYBRANEY's 5.75L 3rd (and a moderate time) raises a question over the quality of the form. The Racing Post considers that, with a new trainer, Abbeybraney has at the age of 11 rediscovered some of his former ability. I'm not entirely convinced myself. In any event, he is unlikely to make the cut for the GN and even less likely to make the frame.
All eyes were on BALLABRIGGS who had this as his GN prep last year and finished 9.25L 4th of 5. It certainly looked like he has a lot of jumping cobwebs to blow away and he made a right mess of the 11th but ran well enough for his first competitive appearance since Aintree. Unlike the last 3 GN winners to make the frame the following year, who had run at least 3 times beforehand, Ballabriggs had been given a long break. Stats-wise he hasn't done enough (or had the opportunity to do enough) to compensate for carrying 11.09 and the model suggests a disappointment on his Aintree return. However, who would be so stupid as to argue with his trainer? If he can do a Red Rum (and I certainly would not say that he can't) I'll be tearing up the stat-model anyway (unless I simply add a substantial credit in future to any horse trained by a McCain).
In the same race, ACCORDING TO PETE (4L 2nd) ran an reasonable prep despite a couple of sloppy jumps. He's handled a big step up in the handicap well this season and could run well at Aintree but the stats suggest that lack of experience will likely limit his potential to a place - for example, while he has won over Wetherby's stiff jumps and performed OK twice at Cheltenham, his experience at the leading jumps tracks is a little short (since 1988, 44 of the 45 GN winners and horses placed up to 10L had won or had strong performances (<6L from the winner or <10L in a Class 1 or Irish Grade A) over the GN fences or at at least one of Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury, Leopardstown or in the Irish National).
So, roughly when do you expect to be getting down to your final selections?
Also, was just wondering, but are you actually a Charlton fan? Not having a dig (honest!) but have just had a look back and have noticed that in our most successful season in ages you don't appear to have actually posted anything on here about Charlton, which seems a little bit strange. As I say, not having a dig - certainly not after you won me dough on last years National!
All the best.
Over 40 years Chief. I was there waving my inflatable haddock (I know it was sacrilege to use a Grimsby Town inflatable but someone b*st*rd had punctured my banana) on the glorious 5th Dec. Take a look further back and you'll see a reasonable number of CAFC-related postings.
As in previous years, it's not until the dust has settled after Cheltenham that the final selections can be made because the stats can change for those currently on the radar screen and those off it. But if you have a look back you'll see some suggestions that might be worth some action.
Cheers
;o)
In 38 chases (35 chases over conventional fences) he has 1 F and 1 UR, the last being more than 3 years ago. That's a pretty good record of standing up for a horse that has raced at or close to the top level at 2-2.5 miles for much of his career. He has 2 good runs from 2 over the GN fences and has never PU'd.
I certainly have a reservation about him in the GN but that is over stamina rather than jumping (of course now guaranteed he'll bury the jockey at the first).
I have been advised to have a few pennies each way on Chicago Grey from a connection of the trainer Gordon Elliott - they are plotting a Silver Birch type coup - what are your thoughts on him ??
Agree with you about Ballabriggs aswell. That run will certainly bring him on. It's a dilemma with a GN winner that's going for back-to-back wins, how good a break for a re-charge should they have?
- Hedgehunter had 4 runs, including 2nd in both the Irish Hennessy (55 days prior) and the Cheltenham Gold Cup (2.5L behind War Of Attrition, 22 days prior), before carrying 11.12 to beat all bar Numbersixvalverde in 2006.
- Comply Or Die had 3 runs, the best being 25L 7th in the WH Trophy at the Festival before his 12-length 2nd to Mon Mome (carrying 11.06 but was perhaps a little flattered as the departure of Black Apalachi when leading at 2nd Becher and consequent drop in the sharp pace probably caused a few to be closer than they would otherwise).
- Don't Push It had 4 runs, all hurdles including 23L 10th in a 3mile Class 1 at the Festival, before his 14.5-length 3rd last year carrying 11.10.
In contrast, McCain obviously believes that a long break and a quietish pipe-opener is the way to go for Ballabriggs and he knows his horse. We'll find out in 40 days whether that's sufficient competitive prep.
Re West End Rocker, I wouldn't be concerned about them pulling him out. The ground was very lively at Donny and I gather not in the greatest of knick, so why risk injury in a prep? It may not be optimal but WER will handle good ground - he's done so before against decent opposition. And you have to figure that Aintree want to minimise the risk of another furore and will ensure that the meeting and the GN start on safe ground. They've had no qualms about watering during the meeting before and they'll surely do it if the times of the Topham and Foxhunter tell them they need to to achieve no quicker than easy side of good for the big one. But maybe we'll have a wet early April and a mudbath!
Re lack of prep run, please see the my post on 2nd March. Not ideal but not a disaster.
- If I say that my model doesn't rate the chances of any horse, I'm honestly not trying to persuade anyone not to back that horse. I'm simply telling you why I won't be backing it. But there's more than one way to make a profit as a punter from a horserace and I'm not pretending that my model trumps anyone's good judgement. I'm fully prepared to eat humble pie and congratulate the backers of any of the 40 runners that does the biz. No undeserving horse wins this race and if the model doesn't identify the winner, unless there was a mass melee as in the Foinavaon and Red Marauder races, there's either a flaw in the model and that's my mistake, pure and simple, or I'd have to conclude that it is an outlier that defies most or all stats-based systems (depending on the going, a win by any of, I reckon, 65-75% of the field would constitute the latter).
- Gordon Elliott, in addition to having a GN win to his credit, is a very astute trainer and, probably like 99% of the racing community, would surely say that a stat-based system of making GN selections is ludicrous (no doubt expressed more fruitily than that). Naturally I take a different view and have put a fair bit of work into my model over the years and it's had a decent run: getting the winner (x4) and/or 2nd (x3) in each of the last 6 years (and showing a profit with an each-way strategy in all). So, unsurprisingly, I'm going to stick with its purely objective selections (even if they seem improbable to others or even to me) and avoid horses that it doesn't rate (no matter if they're strongly fancied by the market or even if my gut or heart are telling me to back them).
- BUT, as sure as eggs is eggs, it is going to crash and burn one year - maybe this one.
So...Chicago Grey (best-priced 25/1 with the bookies):
I really would not want to put you off following a tip from a connection (frankly, if I were you I would back him) but, since you ask, my model currently isn't keen on CG's chances, specifically because:
- He UR'd at Cheltenham last October and is penalised (a little) for not having a good enough run over fences since in 4 attempts to re-assure on his jumping. His 2nd over an inadequate 2.5 miles in his last run looks OK on paper but I watched that race and he made a right horlicks of the last fence and the jockey did amazingly not to come off.
- It may well be thought that no wins from 5 runs this season (closest 15 lengths away) is consistent with keeping a handicap mark down and a potential coup. Maybe so, but all I can say is that it isn't consistent with a GN winner's stats (and is a meaningful negative) - since 1988 no horse that won the GN or finished within 10 lengths (45 of them in total) and that had 3+ prior runs that season had failed to have a win or a finish within 5 lengths. With a string of 5 defeats, it would be a further negative if CG doesn't have a prep 35 days or less prior to the big day. Since 1988 (excl Red Marauder), only 2 GN winners had their last prep more than 35 days prior and both were won (Hedgehunter won the Bobbyjo and Comply Or Die won the Eider).
- Which brings me to the comparison with Silver Birch, whose pre-GN victory campaign included 1 PtP, 1 hurdle and 2 X-C (an Elliott-style "stealth-prep" indeed). He finished no more than 10-lengths behind the winner in all 4 races and in his last, the Festival X-C over c.4 miles (32 days before the GN), was a 3.5L 2nd.
- CG's main positive is obviously his win in the 4 mile amateur riders' novice chase at last year's Festival, beating the subsequent Scottish National winner. Taking that at face value suggests that he should get the trip in the GN (and the model gives him a credit for that) but the time was on the slow side for the good going (which forfeits an extra credit). A 20% win ratio (incl near-misses) from chases at 3miles+ is at the bottom end of the range by GN standards. SB was a former Welsh National winner on heavy and a proven stayer (46% win & near-miss ratio at 3m+). He also had a Becher Chase win over the GN fences on soft to his credit. CG is yet to run at Aintree. Indeed, he is usually taken down early to the start, which suggests a tendency to get a bit warm and/or moody. That may be very difficult to manage at the GN.
- If he could get a win or near-miss in a final prep, the stats would improve appreciably (especially if it were, say, in the Midlands National) but even so he probably wouldn't have enough to make my model's shortlist, though if it were in a race like the Mid Nat it could be close.
One final stat, though not one that my model takes accounts of. The last grey to win the GN was Nicolaus Silver in 1961 (though King Johns Castle [2008] and Suny Bay [1997 and 1998] have been 2nd).
And one final, final word of caution. It was a similar story for Backstage last year, after he was effectively brought down when in touch well into the 2nd circuit in the 2010 GN; an Elliott stealth-campaign (culminating in x2 PtPs) would protect his handicap mark and give him a great chance. He went off 16/1, carrying 10.12 (2lbs less than in 2010 but same OR) but was never in contention (68L 10th).
What can I say? Other than best of luck.