Fifa rankings
Portugal 10
Spain 1
Postcard from Poland (and Ukraine)
So the semi finals begin with a mouthwatering Iberian derby. All those licking their wounds after England were predictably dispatched at the quarter-final stage by penalty shootout can look forward to what could well be this tournaments defining game.
La Roja are yet to ignite at the tournament and a comfortable 2-0 victory over France in the quarters was routine rather than spectacular. Vicente del Bosque’s biggest question is over his forward line – or lack of. In the opening game against Italy the Spanish played without a recognized striker, relying instead on Cesc Fabregas to play much further forward, as he did for Barca in the previous season. This underlines Spain’s real “weakness”. In both the Italy and France games Spain lacked a real cutting edge upfront, and for all the tika-taka football which will inevitably be played, the absence of a striker may prove critical should they need to find goals in this game. So in the absence of the breathtaking David Villa, Spain must choose between the much ridiculed Fernando Torres, Sevilla powerhouse Alvaro Negredo or the “English style” Fernando Llorente - who is yet to kick a ball in the tournament despite a fine season for Bilbao. Behind whoever is (or is not in this case) selected upfront will be Spain’s formidable midfield. After Mikel Alonso’s slightly more famous brother Xabi grabbed a brace to send the French home, his place is assured which means either Cesc (as he’s known in international duty) or David Silva would make way should the Spanish opt to play one upfront as the Barca three of Xavi, Iniesta and Busquets seem assured of starting berths.
Unlike their Spanish cousins,the Portugese offer very little options around their starting line up. Portugal have fielded the same starting line up, in the same formation, in every game of the tournament. And therein lies the problem for Paulo Bento, options from the bench are sparse. Selecção have thus far looked to Benfica youngster Nelson Oliveira for inspiration from the sidelines, however he is raw and has only five career goals to his name, none in the top flight. So the tried and tested trio of Ronaldo, Postiga, and Nani will carry Portugese hopes and after an indifferent start to the tournament the last couple of games have seen Ronaldo come to life. Ronnie is under pressure to prove his worth in a national team jersey and this chance against his Real teammates seems too good to miss. The comparative weakness in the Portugese side is exposed when we look behind this array of talent (and Postiga). Pepe and Bruno Alves are tough but hardly quick in their centre back positions and Miguel Veloso as the holding midfielder will have his work cut out trying to ensure the Spanish aren’t able to overrun should the forward three push too far into enemy territory.
Predictions
I’m going to be bold, put my neck on the line and make it interesting. I think Portugal will win. Spain haven’t been amazing and in fairness that’s because they haven’t needed to be, however it’s very difficult to play in second gear for four games and suddenly shift to fifth on command. Add to this Ronaldo’s desire, nay, his need to prove himself on “the world stage” and you have a compelling case for Portugal. 2-1 Portugal.
Ones to watch
Iniesta (Spain)
Ronaldo (Portugal)
Odds
Portugal 7/2 (Various)
Spain 10/11 (SkyBet)
Draw 12/5 (Bet365)
0
Comments
Anyone But Portugal!
Spain have too many players who have played through injury this season, or are carrying injuries now and have missed Villa and the certainty of a reliable forward.
I predict the Ronaldo show to continue and for Nani and Ronaldo to really use their pace and get at a pedestrian Spanish back 4 (J Alba aside).
2-1
Spain 2 - 0 Portugal
Spain bored the arse off the world in winning the last World Cup - 8 goals in 7 games is pathetic - and are trying the same trick here and in recent history Portugal have not been much better, preferring risk-free possession football to actually trying to score goals (apart from their demolition of the mighty North Korea).
I hope Portugal win, if only to wipe some of the smugness out of the unbearably patronising Spanish fans who feel everyone should be in love with their "Tika-Taka" bullshit football and can't bear to be criticised.
I expect this game to contain more amateur dramatics than the whole of Compton Street's gay bars on a Friday Night, I already feel sorry for the poor bastard who has to referee this as they will be trying to get each other sent off from the first whistle.
Agree Ormy I am sick of the arrogance of the Spanish mind you they are pretty good but I think they may slip up tonight. Ronaldo as a human being is a bit of a dick but he is one hell of a player and will cause them problems I predict.
Both teams to score ( 8-11 StanJames )
Pique to score anytime ( 14-1 Bet365 )
Should be a good game, though I find it hard to bet against the Spanish.
http://www.football365.com/faves/7844148/Johnny-Nic
Of course Spain will fear Ronaldo and that alone could make a bit of a difference.
I suspect Spain will dominate posession until they find an opening - like they always do. Their football is always easy on the eye even if they play defensive and negative.
ive clicked on the red button and chosen the no commentary option.
Lovely skill, technique etc but very little endeavour or inspiration.
One of the best 0-0s I've ever seen