The weather is a chaotic system so it doesn't matter how good your computer is, you can't work out what's going to happen with complete accuracy. The Met Office run various "what if" scenarios and give the average outcome as the forecast. Last I heard, they get tomorrow's weather about 80% correct. The forecast for the day after tomorrow would then be correct about 64% of the time, and the day after that about 51% - don't say they might as well toss a coin, there are many possibilities for the the weather in three days' time, not just two.
Biggest con job ever pulled on the public. They're no more right about the weather than they would be if their budget was about a hundredth what it is.
Ffs, half the time they can't even get what the weather is like NOW correct, let alone what it will be like tomorrow or next week
Biggest con job ever pulled on the public. They're no more right about the weather than they would be if their budget was about a hundredth what it is.
Ffs, half the time they can't even get what the weather is like NOW correct, let alone what it will be like tomorrow or next week
To be fair Leroy, the Met have them holed up in a dark room with no windows. They can't look out & don't even know if it's day or night!
The weather is a chaotic system so it doesn't matter how good your computer is, you can't work out what's going to happen with complete accuracy. The Met Office run various "what if" scenarios and give the average outcome as the forecast. Last I heard, they get tomorrow's weather about 80% correct. The forecast for the day after tomorrow would then be correct about 64% of the time, and the day after that about 51% - don't say they might as well toss a coin, there are many possibilities for the the weather in three days' time, not just two.
I agree that the weather is "chaotic" but your description of the "what if" scenarios is incorrect. In very simple terms, firstly they run a computer model with the current readings. Then they adjust those readings to give slightly different starting points (the "what ifs" or peturbations). If, say, after 1,2 5, 10 days etc the results vary greatly then there is a high degree of unpredicability in the weather. If the results tend to the same results then the weather is much more predictable. It is the level of (un)predictability that is rarely mentioned in forecasts but would, in my view, put forecasts in context. Of course, if people want a days forecast summed up in one symbol, then there's no need !
Biggest con job ever pulled on the public. They're no more right about the weather than they would be if their budget was about a hundredth what it is.
Ffs, half the time they can't even get what the weather is like NOW correct, let alone what it will be like tomorrow or next week
Also you will notice that at the start of every national forecast they mention what happened weather wise earlier in the day, this piece of info goes towards the correct prediction percentages, I kid you not.
Biggest con job ever pulled on the public. They're no more right about the weather than they would be if their budget was about a hundredth what it is.
Ffs, half the time they can't even get what the weather is like NOW correct, let alone what it will be like tomorrow or next week
Also you will notice that at the start of every national forecast they mention what happened weather wise earlier in the day, this piece of info goes towards the correct prediction percentages, I kid you not.
I don't usually watch the weather because I can learn all I need to know about it by looking out of the window, but today I caught the weather on the BBC News channel and it was brilliant. Partly because it was fronted by part-time Barnie Razil impersonator, Tomaz Schafernaker, and partly because he was accompanied by a bloke doing signing for the deaf. At first I thought it was ridiculous, why would deaf people need something to be signed when everything's written up on a huge map? But the more I watched the better it became, they guy doing the signing was a master of facial expressions and he had a different face for everything. Best gurning competition ever. If you haven't seen it, it's must watch tv; hilarious.
Biggest con job ever pulled on the public. They're no more right about the weather than they would be if their budget was about a hundredth what it is.
Ffs, half the time they can't even get what the weather is like NOW correct, let alone what it will be like tomorrow or next week
are you saying that elfin faced Laura on Good Morning Britain doesn't have a flying fuck what she's talking about?
Comments
Ffs, half the time they can't even get what the weather is like NOW correct, let alone what it will be like tomorrow or next week
devastated and feeling deceived.
Been looking at going to NYC soon, so searched for New York on the BBC.
"Do you mean
New York City, New York
or
New York, Lincolnshire"
No I meant the one in Rotherham ffs