Oh dear Lincs, Tofino Bay is carrying my shilling in the first so, even with Nina on board, I'm afraid it's doomed.
The Ryan Air man owns it .. watch it fly in !! .. hopefully to the right airport
Will happily put up with O'Leary's smug little mush if he does so.
He's (as you know) in the GN .. PaddyPower this a.m. have him at 50/1 for the GN. Be about 20 or 25s if he is placed/wins today I should think
He's 100/1 with a couple I think but don't be tempted....last novice to win was in 1958.
PS Dessie Hughes has said previously that he thinks this year is a year too soon but O'Leary might take the chance without another serious contender.
mmmm .. AND the female jock AND he's a novice @10 years old .. I'll still be tempted if he comes good today over 4 on a stiffer track than Aintree, though 'easier' fences .. especially if (say) Russell gets on board .. we will see . let him do OK today first. Have a good one Peanuts
Re Tofino Bay, sorry Lincs, I have to confess to a DATA ERROR :0(
What I said isn't correct that no novice has finished within 30L of the GN winner since 1988. Big Fella Thanks was a first season novice (7 y-o) when 23L 6th to Mon Mome in 2009. Apologies.
However, he is the exception to a pretty grim rule for first season novice chasers in the GN. In the last 22 GNs (excl Red Marauder, as always), 13 of these ran, of which only Big Fella Thanks completed. 11 Fell or Unseated, 5 at the first fence, and 1 was Pulled Up after a circuit. It does seem to be an experience as much as an age-thing, since 5 of them were 9 y-o+. I'll be doing an update in the next few days on the GN thread (forfeit stage on Tuesday & could be a significant further rise in the weights)............... ....need to have something to look forward to!
Comments
What I said isn't correct that no novice has finished within 30L of the GN winner since 1988.
Big Fella Thanks was a first season novice (7 y-o) when 23L 6th to Mon Mome in 2009. Apologies.
However, he is the exception to a pretty grim rule for first season novice chasers in the GN.
In the last 22 GNs (excl Red Marauder, as always), 13 of these ran, of which only Big Fella Thanks completed. 11 Fell or Unseated, 5 at the first fence, and 1 was Pulled Up after a circuit.
It does seem to be an experience as much as an age-thing, since 5 of them were 9 y-o+.
I'll be doing an update in the next few days on the GN thread (forfeit stage on Tuesday & could be a significant further rise in the weights)...............
....need to have something to look forward to!