I think it would be rather useful if they both attend a training course on tact and diplomacy, and to accept that the size of their willies is totally irrevelent to maintaining world peace - they are playing with millions of lives.
I think it would be rather useful if they both attend a training course on tact and diplomacy, and to accept that the size of their willies is totally irrevelent to maintaining world peace - they are playing with millions of lives.
Do you really believe North Korea are going to bother about humanity......they kill, subjugate and imprison thousands of their "own" population annually.
Well if Trump puts planes in the air anywhere near the Korean Peninsula then he really is the fucktard we have suspected he is.
Time for the USA to take a step back and de escalate the situation. Both countries are now being very stupid indeed.
Getting a bit tired of you seemingly blaming Trump all the time with scarcely a bad word to say about North Korea......speaking for myself here, but I would appreciate it if you could be just a bit more even handed. North Korea is a rogue state, the truly evil goings on there don't bear thinking about. Yes, Trump is a bit of a weird one but the North Korean regime are quite simply in a different league and shouldn't be tolerated by any civilised nation on earth. The US isn't run by politicians as such, but by lawyers in various positions of power who Trump and any other President come to that, have to run things by. As much as you may think it, he isn't in total control just as any prime minister isn't in total control in The UK. The possibility of him waking up one morning and deciding I'm gonna first strike and press the red button today is just not an option.....it would have to go through numerous fail safe channels before that became a reality.......which includes deep and detailed discussion with all manner of people in positions of power.....it just wouldn't happen. That may well not be the case with a retaliatory strike of course.....he may well have a very different chain of command in such circumstances. However........I dread to think what those fail safe actions are in North Korea re first strike implementation, indeed are there any.....it just doesn't bear thinking about!
There are very few fail safe channels in the US when it comes to nuclear weapons
Well if Trump puts planes in the air anywhere near the Korean Peninsula then he really is the fucktard we have suspected he is.
Time for the USA to take a step back and de escalate the situation. Both countries are now being very stupid indeed.
Getting a bit tired of you seemingly blaming Trump all the time with scarcely a bad word to say about North Korea......speaking for myself here, but I would appreciate it if you could be just a bit more even handed. North Korea is a rogue state, the truly evil goings on there don't bear thinking about. Yes, Trump is a bit of a weird one but the North Korean regime are quite simply in a different league and shouldn't be tolerated by any civilised nation on earth. The US isn't run by politicians as such, but by lawyers in various positions of power who Trump and any other President come to that, have to run things by. As much as you may think it, he isn't in total control just as any prime minister isn't in total control in The UK. The possibility of him waking up one morning and deciding I'm gonna first strike and press the red button today is just not an option.....it would have to go through numerous fail safe channels before that became a reality.......which includes deep and detailed discussion with all manner of people in positions of power.....it just wouldn't happen. That may well not be the case with a retaliatory strike of course.....he may well have a very different chain of command in such circumstances. However........I dread to think what those fail safe actions are in North Korea re first strike implementation, indeed are there any.....it just doesn't bear thinking about!
There are very few fail safe channels in the US...
Well if Trump puts planes in the air anywhere near the Korean Peninsula then he really is the fucktard we have suspected he is.
Time for the USA to take a step back and de escalate the situation. Both countries are now being very stupid indeed.
Getting a bit tired of you seemingly blaming Trump all the time with scarcely a bad word to say about North Korea......speaking for myself here, but I would appreciate it if you could be just a bit more even handed. North Korea is a rogue state, the truly evil goings on there don't bear thinking about. Yes, Trump is a bit of a weird one but the North Korean regime are quite simply in a different league and shouldn't be tolerated by any civilised nation on earth. The US isn't run by politicians as such, but by lawyers in various positions of power who Trump and any other President come to that, have to run things by. As much as you may think it, he isn't in total control just as any prime minister isn't in total control in The UK. The possibility of him waking up one morning and deciding I'm gonna first strike and press the red button today is just not an option.....it would have to go through numerous fail safe channels before that became a reality.......which includes deep and detailed discussion with all manner of people in positions of power.....it just wouldn't happen. That may well not be the case with a retaliatory strike of course.....he may well have a very different chain of command in such circumstances. However........I dread to think what those fail safe actions are in North Korea re first strike implementation, indeed are there any.....it just doesn't bear thinking about!
There are very few fail safe channels in the US when it comes to nuclear weapons
Well if Trump puts planes in the air anywhere near the Korean Peninsula then he really is the fucktard we have suspected he is.
Time for the USA to take a step back and de escalate the situation. Both countries are now being very stupid indeed.
Getting a bit tired of you seemingly blaming Trump all the time with scarcely a bad word to say about North Korea......speaking for myself here, but I would appreciate it if you could be just a bit more even handed. North Korea is a rogue state, the truly evil goings on there don't bear thinking about. Yes, Trump is a bit of a weird one but the North Korean regime are quite simply in a different league and shouldn't be tolerated by any civilised nation on earth. The US isn't run by politicians as such, but by lawyers in various positions of power who Trump and any other President come to that, have to run things by. As much as you may think it, he isn't in total control just as any prime minister isn't in total control in The UK. The possibility of him waking up one morning and deciding I'm gonna first strike and press the red button today is just not an option.....it would have to go through numerous fail safe channels before that became a reality.......which includes deep and detailed discussion with all manner of people in positions of power.....it just wouldn't happen. That may well not be the case with a retaliatory strike of course.....he may well have a very different chain of command in such circumstances. However........I dread to think what those fail safe actions are in North Korea re first strike implementation, indeed are there any.....it just doesn't bear thinking about!
Well if Trump puts planes in the air anywhere near the Korean Peninsula then he really is the fucktard we have suspected he is.
Time for the USA to take a step back and de escalate the situation. Both countries are now being very stupid indeed.
Getting a bit tired of you seemingly blaming Trump all the time with scarcely a bad word to say about North Korea......speaking for myself here, but I would appreciate it if you could be just a bit more even handed. North Korea is a rogue state, the truly evil goings on there don't bear thinking about. Yes, Trump is a bit of a weird one but the North Korean regime are quite simply in a different league and shouldn't be tolerated by any civilised nation on earth. The US isn't run by politicians as such, but by lawyers in various positions of power who Trump and any other President come to that, have to run things by. As much as you may think it, he isn't in total control just as any prime minister isn't in total control in The UK. The possibility of him waking up one morning and deciding I'm gonna first strike and press the red button today is just not an option.....it would have to go through numerous fail safe channels before that became a reality.......which includes deep and detailed discussion with all manner of people in positions of power.....it just wouldn't happen. That may well not be the case with a retaliatory strike of course.....he may well have a very different chain of command in such circumstances. However........I dread to think what those fail safe actions are in North Korea re first strike implementation, indeed are there any.....it just doesn't bear thinking about!
I'm sorry you're tired.
North Korea is more to blame than Trump of course they are but what I expect of North Korea and what I expect of the USA are two completely different things.
I expect that Kim Jong-Un would act like a maniac. He is a maniac and has brought the country he is a dictator of to its knees. He is a cruel despot. Deserving of zero respect.
On the other hand I expect one of the great democracies of the world and the greatest military might to act with a little more diplomacy and behave in a more responsible manner. Not happily engage in tit for tat bickering with a crazy man.
The fact that they are not is directly the responsibility of the lunatic Donald Trump. He's not fit in any way shape or form to lead the free world. He's an imbecile leading the world to the edge of possible disaster.
As Supreme Commander if he decides to take any action against NK it will happen.
Well if Trump puts planes in the air anywhere near the Korean Peninsula then he really is the fucktard we have suspected he is.
Time for the USA to take a step back and de escalate the situation. Both countries are now being very stupid indeed.
Getting a bit tired of you seemingly blaming Trump all the time with scarcely a bad word to say about North Korea......speaking for myself here, but I would appreciate it if you could be just a bit more even handed. North Korea is a rogue state, the truly evil goings on there don't bear thinking about. Yes, Trump is a bit of a weird one but the North Korean regime are quite simply in a different league and shouldn't be tolerated by any civilised nation on earth. The US isn't run by politicians as such, but by lawyers in various positions of power who Trump and any other President come to that, have to run things by. As much as you may think it, he isn't in total control just as any prime minister isn't in total control in The UK. The possibility of him waking up one morning and deciding I'm gonna first strike and press the red button today is just not an option.....it would have to go through numerous fail safe channels before that became a reality.......which includes deep and detailed discussion with all manner of people in positions of power.....it just wouldn't happen. That may well not be the case with a retaliatory strike of course.....he may well have a very different chain of command in such circumstances. However........I dread to think what those fail safe actions are in North Korea re first strike implementation, indeed are there any.....it just doesn't bear thinking about!
I'm sorry you're tired.
North Korea is more to blame than Trump of course they are but what I expect of North Korea and what I expect of the USA are two completely different things.
I expect that Kim Jong-Un would act like a maniac. He is a maniac and has brought the country he is a dictator of to its knees. He is a cruel despot. Deserving of zero respect.
On the other hand I expect one of the great democracies of the world and the greatest military might to act with a little more diplomacy and behave in a more responsible manner. Not happily engage in tit for tat bickering with a crazy man.
The fact that they are not is directly the responsibility of the lunatic Donald Trump. He's not fit in any way shape or form to lead the free world. He's an imbecile leading the world to the edge of possible disaster.
As Supreme Commander if he decides to take any action against NK it will happen.
I am not comfortable with that title. Nothing to do with Trump.
But all well put SHG. North Korea is, in some ways, a "constant" in all this in that they will act in their own self-interest without regard for anything else. And they're nuts. This long precedes both KJU and Trump.
And yet, Trump continues this war of words with them. Unlike him, KJU is not responsible to an electorate or a congress. He can do as he pleases. As mentioned above there really aren't any formal stopgaps to nuclear action, but perhaps just as worryingly there are now very few for conventional warfare either (thank you Congress for giving over the right to declare war). At present we're hoping that one of the more "sensible" men in the White House/Cabinet prevent a pre-emptive strike, but it should be noted that Kelly, McMaster, and Mattis are all very, very hawkish in their own right.
We can talk about how awful North Korea are, and they are. But we have no control over them. That's kind of the problem here. Whereas, theoretically, the President of the United States should have constituents and a Congress he has to answer to. I don't think Trump sees things that way.
At present we're hoping that one of the more "sensible" men in the White House/Cabinet prevent a pre-emptive strike, but it should be noted that Kelly, McMaster, and Mattis are all very, very hawkish in their own right.
I will preface this with saying i don't think anyone should be a war hawk, however:
I think there is hawkish and hawkish though, the ex (ish) generals may be so when it comes to demonstrating might, using new toys, and the myriad uses of SOF troops these days. I don't believe they are so hawkish when it comes to nuclear weapons and suicide missions. These are generals who came up with all the 'glory' of desert storm but then a losing war in afghanistan and the mess that is/was Iraq mk 2, so they know about losing men and changing public opinion, and that glorious cavalry charges to the capital are short lived these days.
On nuclear weapons, i have met a lot of US and UK military officers and i don't believe there is one that would advocate the use of nuclear weapons in anything but an end of days scenario, they are too well schooled in the world of international relations to believe that they could use preemptive or tactical nuclear strikes without retaliation.
There will be a plan for North Korea and how to quickly shut down a nuclear capability, as well as the more likely scenario of taking out the artillery that gravely threatens Seoul, there would have been a plan for the latter for some years - military intelligence will have run many scenarios. I feel safer that the generals are there, than if some of the crackpot civvies that Kelly got rid of, were.
That's reassuring I think but doesn't really allow for the vast and it is vast conventional forces under the control of Kim Jong-Un and their proximity to the South Korean capital Seoul with its millions of inhabitants. Any sub nuclear conflict would find it virtually impossible to prevent a conventional overrun of the border and huge collateral damage to South Korea. The US have said as much.
A tactical, surgical special ops approach in order to take out the norths nuclear capability is just as unlikely. It is believed that KJU's nuclear arsenal is over many sites. A simultaneous success at each one is at best improbable and still wouldn't have any effect on the inevitable conventional conflict.
The US really doesn't have the manpower available in the region to undertake a conventional war. The US can't build up enough strength in the region without being massively provocative. It can't "take out" the norths nuclear capability without huge huge risk. The more I read about this the more I am beginning to think that as mighty as it is, the USA doesn't really hold a very good hand and I believe Kim Jong-Un knows exactly this. The Americans are between a rock and a hard place.
It's why I feel that the USA must step back from this and de escalate the rhetoric. KJU's threats and posturing are that of a madman but Trumps words are for the reasons above effectively hollow unless North Korea decide to commit suicide and pre-emptively strike which seems outside of reality.
I think you've got to the crux of the matter that i was clumsily trying to. On the conventional forces side of things it would be a suicide mission if not for the US certainly for the South and its capital so i think the generals would avoid it. Tillerson hinted at something the other day that suggested there was a plan, but then he would say that wouldn't he.
The US could be banking on the fact that the North still don't quite have the tech for a 100% successful launch, so acting quickly to remove the threat to Seoul could end this thing. I have no idea really, just speculating.
Ultimately, KJU needs to protect the dynasty, and while a US attack is likely suicide, a NK attack is definitely suicide so his hands are tied too.
I cannot see trump dialling down the rhetoric as he should, he's losing fights on too many fronts to start backing off now. Fascinating as an international relations case study, just a shame it's real!
Of course North Korea are the problem here. But many are worried that Trump is the sort that isn't willing to lose a bit of face and could act rashly and dangerously. So you have the Wealdstone raider demanding a fight and threatening you. You know you can kick the proverbial out of him, but walking away is the biggest and best thing to do. In many ways it makes him look all the more pathetic.
Of course the stakes are much higher here. But as long as Trump doesn't act (because no good will come of it) I won't be over critical of him.
Of course North Korea are the problem here. But many are worried that Trump is the sort that isn't willing to lose a bit of face and could act rashly and dangerously. So you have the Wealdstone raider demanding a fight and threatening you. You know you can kick the proverbial out of him, but walking away is the biggest and best thing to do. In many ways it makes him look all the more pathetic.
Of course the stakes are much higher here. But as long as Trump doesn't act (because no good will come of it) I won't be over critical of him.
Fair enough but don't you see that Trumps continued trading of insults and threats with KJU is just fuelling the beast.
The North Koreans are already indoctrinated to believe that the USA is an evil empire and a threat to their very existence. Trump publicly insulting their leader just reinforces that belief and strengthens Kim's position.
There is also the chance that if you keep poking a mad dog long enough it just might bite.
Trumps actions in this crisis are infantile and not worthy of the leader of the greatest power on earth.
Yes it probably is - but we have to remember who the beast is - North Korea. My point is if Trump doesn't do what we are all scared he will do -and we are talking about actions and not stupid words - we can't be harsh on him in this area. If he does - well that is a different matter.
Of course North Korea are the problem here. But many are worried that Trump is the sort that isn't willing to lose a bit of face and could act rashly and dangerously. So you have the Wealdstone raider demanding a fight and threatening you. You know you can kick the proverbial out of him, but walking away is the biggest and best thing to do. In many ways it makes him look all the more pathetic.
Of course the stakes are much higher here. But as long as Trump doesn't act (because no good will come of it) I won't be over critical of him.
I was informed on Reddit that NK doesn't have quite as a big a threat to Seoul as maybe we think (using non-nuclear weapons).
To summarise - there are limited weapons pointed at Seoul (the big guns can't reach), that 25% of their artillery fails, that they can't afford to fire it all at Seoul anyway cos then they'd have no defence left, that ROK defences are well-poised to intercept a lot of it...
I tried looking into this, but only found a handful of sources. A HuffPo article insists Seoul could be levelled, but a US intelligence report to Congress wasn't quite as certain. Anybody know for sure what NK could actually do to the South?
North Korean government officials have been quietly trying to arrange talks with Republican-linked analysts in Washington, in an apparent attempt to make sense of President Trump and his confusing messages to Kim Jong Un’s regime.
...
But the questions have since become more specific. Why, for instance, are Trump’s top officials, notably Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, directly contradicting the president so often?
Dear North Korea, If you figure it out, could you please let the rest of us know. Yours, The World
Last excerpt I promise: The North Koreans at the meeting displayed an “encyclopedic” knowledge of Trump’s tweets, to the extent that they were able to quote them back to the Americans present.
Pyongyang’s delegation was headed by Choe Kang Il, deputy director of the Americas division in the foreign ministry, and he was accompanied by three officials in their late 20s who wowed the other participants with their intellectual analysis and their perfect American-accented English. One even explained to the other delegates how the U.S. Congress works.
I'm starting to wonder if they've seen some of the Muppets in the Cabinet and our Congress and they're trying to get a job. Whoever they are, they can't be worse than Betsy DeVos, Rick Parry, or Ben Carson.
I am with SHG. I do find the insular perspective of many troubling. The point here is KJU is deliberately provoking Trump.
I recognise the attraction of a Trump. He appeals to a part of society who believe their voices are not being heard. I can argue Obama, as an African American, was elected on the same basis. Their message however is very different. One sought harmony, unity & equilibrium. The other strives for ascendency & exclusion.
I do wish people however would remember their history. The attraction of people championing their narrow perspective has consequence. In a different time & place people "standing up for their values" sent millions to death camps engulfing millions more in global conflict, one directly linked to this current situation.
Trump is a decent orator. As a person he has the right to represent his views and those who share his views. Yet, like an actor who can only play one role, he still fights a campaign he has already won. Indeed it is the "I won, live with it" approach which drives division. Division which drives fear & resentment and conflict. It is dangerous.
As a democratically elected President he has a responsibility to represent the interests, values and will of an entire nation. Politicians are elected to serve all of the people. A President no matter his personal beliefs is a SERVANT of the people.
His dialogue does connect. Sadly it all too closely resembles the preserve of the playground bully and his acolytes. The Korea statements like most Trump rhetoric, are fraught with catastrophic consequence. Who does his grandiose reckless statements serve? The psyche & bravado of US citizenry? Really? Do we forget Vietnam? Do we forget the angst, turmoil and anger as the body bags of thousands of the fallen were flown home?
How are the people of South Korea & Japan supposed to react to such inflammatory verbiage? How many millions of these innocents would be caught in such conflict? What of the large west coast and smaller Korean communities like Dallas in the US?
What of the US & Global economy? US fiscal debt is already circa $14trillion (China holds $1.25 trillion). or the global banking network.
Each rely on interwoven investment, counter investment, insurance, reassurance, international trade and the free movement of capital. They are inter dependent on the support of nations across the globe. It is on the back of sovereign nation debt the global banking network functions today.
Put the US Presidential comments in context. The idea killing 25mn would cow a Korean leader whose faith in his religious political dynasty (built on the beliefs of centuries) is breathtakingly ignorant.
KJU is rightly condemned for his reckless & inflammatory statements. He however has history to embolden his quest. Schooled by his father, he believes his destiny is to lead an ideology based in the survival of an independent "Korea". It carries the nationalism of a 3rd Reich, the state controls of Stalin and the religious fervour of a Daesh. His father militarized such belief to establish "Korea's" place in the world. KJU has again declared war on the US but for him "a state of war already exists between "Korea" and the "forces of oppression in the south". Background is everything.
"Korea" has been under control of "oppressors" for over a century. KJU is "the hero" fighting the oppressive imperialism of Japan, China, the USSR and the USA. An oppression to which he believes half "his country" is still "betrayed".
On his/ his father's journey the executive has through political machinery forged by the Soviets & religious manipulation of long held beliefs largely reduced his population to serfdom and a perception "Man is God" and KJU is the "Leader of Gods."
He knows in practical terms N. Korea has a population less than 1/12th of the USA.
He knows it is an economically challenged closed society largely reliant on access to $6trillion of mineral resources. Resources which no doubt played a part in Korea's partition after Japans defeat in WWII. A partition which the USSR & the US had agreed was to ultimately to unite the country. It did not.
Yet the leader of this now diminished society, where many citizens live in poverty, has been able to directly engage the leader of the most powerful nation on the planet. So every time you directly engage with his provocation via "a media pissing contest" you elevate his status in his eyes and in the eyes of his people.
Indeed he will be acclaimed by many around the world who detest the USA and its history of abuse of power over many decades. Did we learn nothing of the hate & loathing embodied in the events of 9/11? Do we not recognise the different "value of life" perceptions?
So for now the N. Korean leader "with his nuclear threat" gets to "thumb his nose" at the super powers. His actions are designed to challenge his "oppressors". In provoking Trump "he wins" every time Trump opens his mouth. It is an "ideological template" he wishes others to follow.
The world knows the US military capability all too well.
N Korea knows it is a dangerous game but like a small boy with a catapult firing pebbles at a neighbours window the actions are designed to generate a response. The small boy gets to enjoy the attention and in this case secure a status he and his country would never otherwise receive.
Throwing inter ballistic missiles across the territory of a former colonial master is hugely symbolic.
We know every step taken down this path increases the possibility of a catastrophic error and "a window being broken" but much as you might want to give "the child" a slap there is only one "parent" who will rein this in. It is China and China knows it.
Providing China retains moderate influence it has nothing to lose. To a degree it can sit back as N Korea challenges western influenced societies across the world and a Japan which with has had long term animosity. Such challenges have the advantage of diverting attention from China's own military & territorial ambitions.
Obama played the game. He expressed concern. He expressed alarm. He cautioned there would be consequences. You can now reassure the world of your intent & capability to respond on behalf of yourself and your allies but you keep the responsibility/control where it belongs.... with China.
You apply and ratchet up the pressure on China to bring this man, a threat to their region of the world, under control. You do not verbally attack China, you praise China (which he has now done), you applaud it, you offer your full support for their endeavours in resolving this challenge to world peace. You let them be the hero.
You call on them to play the role they have long sought. They get to raise their influential profile in the world.
Is it worryingly disconcerting? Of course but it is a sign of a changing world. Western society which has for so long had "carte blanche" around the world faces the increasing influence of a new world. Our power is being challenged.
It was always going to happen at some point.
However all the time you choose to stand front & centre in a pointless public verbal interchange going nowhere you actually look increasingly weak.
Every time Trump opens his mouth in threatening retaliation he gives the North Korean leader fresh oxygen. KJU is further emboldened. I imagine Bejiing, Moscow, Tehran behind closed doors relish the US discomfiture.
Dangerous brinkmanship? Undoubtedly, but Trump "stamping his feet" in a muddy pool serves no one.
It is time he left the playground and stopped his mouth writing cheques his country, the world and potentially mankind can ill afford. Can ever such a leader be so palpably out of his depth?
I was informed on Reddit that NK doesn't have quite as a big a threat to Seoul as maybe we think (using non-nuclear weapons).
To summarise - there are limited weapons pointed at Seoul (the big guns can't reach), that 25% of their artillery fails, that they can't afford to fire it all at Seoul anyway cos then they'd have no defence left, that ROK defences are well-poised to intercept a lot of it...
I tried looking into this, but only found a handful of sources. A HuffPo article insists Seoul could be levelled, but a US intelligence report to Congress wasn't quite as certain. Anybody know for sure what NK could actually do to the South?
I doubt anyone outside of NK and top level intelligence officers from around the world really know what NK can do.
Anyone posting about it on Reddit can only be dealing with hypotheses, surely?
I was informed on Reddit that NK doesn't have quite as a big a threat to Seoul as maybe we think (using non-nuclear weapons).
To summarise - there are limited weapons pointed at Seoul (the big guns can't reach), that 25% of their artillery fails, that they can't afford to fire it all at Seoul anyway cos then they'd have no defence left, that ROK defences are well-poised to intercept a lot of it...
I tried looking into this, but only found a handful of sources. A HuffPo article insists Seoul could be levelled, but a US intelligence report to Congress wasn't quite as certain. Anybody know for sure what NK could actually do to the South?
Anyone posting about it on Reddit can only be dealing with hypotheses, surely?
Indeed, I wasn't citing it as a source, hence why I asked the question.
I was informed on Reddit that NK doesn't have quite as a big a threat to Seoul as maybe we think (using non-nuclear weapons).
To summarise - there are limited weapons pointed at Seoul (the big guns can't reach), that 25% of their artillery fails, that they can't afford to fire it all at Seoul anyway cos then they'd have no defence left, that ROK defences are well-poised to intercept a lot of it...
I tried looking into this, but only found a handful of sources. A HuffPo article insists Seoul could be levelled, but a US intelligence report to Congress wasn't quite as certain. Anybody know for sure what NK could actually do to the South?
Anyone posting about it on Reddit can only be dealing with hypotheses, surely?
Indeed, I wasn't citing it as a source, hence why I asked the question.
Is not the suggestion (and there is some evidence) that it is not NK's conventional weapons which are the major concern?
It has been claimed that NK has a very significant stockpile of chemical and biological agents. (I refer you to the murder of KJU's half-brother.) And it would be only too well prepared to lob these over the border at the South Korean capital. Indeed, a defector from NK has suggested that these weapons were tested on NK's own population, so I'm sure they wouldn't worry too much about using them on a another country's.
I was informed on Reddit that NK doesn't have quite as a big a threat to Seoul as maybe we think (using non-nuclear weapons).
To summarise - there are limited weapons pointed at Seoul (the big guns can't reach), that 25% of their artillery fails, that they can't afford to fire it all at Seoul anyway cos then they'd have no defence left, that ROK defences are well-poised to intercept a lot of it...
I tried looking into this, but only found a handful of sources. A HuffPo article insists Seoul could be levelled, but a US intelligence report to Congress wasn't quite as certain. Anybody know for sure what NK could actually do to the South?
Anyone posting about it on Reddit can only be dealing with hypotheses, surely?
Indeed, I wasn't citing it as a source, hence why I asked the question.
Yeah, which I was attempting to answer, in a "no one can know" kinda way.
Comments
I'm sorry you're tired.
North Korea is more to blame than Trump of course they are but what I expect of North Korea and what I expect of the USA are two completely different things.
I expect that Kim Jong-Un would act like a maniac. He is a maniac and has brought the country he is a dictator of to its knees. He is a cruel despot. Deserving of zero respect.
On the other hand I expect one of the great democracies of the world and the greatest military might to act with a little more diplomacy and behave in a more responsible manner. Not happily engage in tit for tat bickering with a crazy man.
The fact that they are not is directly the responsibility of the lunatic Donald Trump. He's not fit in any way shape or form to lead the free world. He's an imbecile leading the world to the edge of possible disaster.
As Supreme Commander if he decides to take any action against NK it will happen.
But all well put SHG. North Korea is, in some ways, a "constant" in all this in that they will act in their own self-interest without regard for anything else. And they're nuts. This long precedes both KJU and Trump.
And yet, Trump continues this war of words with them. Unlike him, KJU is not responsible to an electorate or a congress. He can do as he pleases. As mentioned above there really aren't any formal stopgaps to nuclear action, but perhaps just as worryingly there are now very few for conventional warfare either (thank you Congress for giving over the right to declare war). At present we're hoping that one of the more "sensible" men in the White House/Cabinet prevent a pre-emptive strike, but it should be noted that Kelly, McMaster, and Mattis are all very, very hawkish in their own right.
We can talk about how awful North Korea are, and they are. But we have no control over them. That's kind of the problem here. Whereas, theoretically, the President of the United States should have constituents and a Congress he has to answer to. I don't think Trump sees things that way.
outill?At present we're hoping that one of the more "sensible" men in the White House/Cabinet prevent a pre-emptive strike, but it should be noted that Kelly, McMaster, and Mattis are all very, very hawkish in their own right.
I will preface this with saying i don't think anyone should be a war hawk, however:
I think there is hawkish and hawkish though, the ex (ish) generals may be so when it comes to demonstrating might, using new toys, and the myriad uses of SOF troops these days. I don't believe they are so hawkish when it comes to nuclear weapons and suicide missions. These are generals who came up with all the 'glory' of desert storm but then a losing war in afghanistan and the mess that is/was Iraq mk 2, so they know about losing men and changing public opinion, and that glorious cavalry charges to the capital are short lived these days.
On nuclear weapons, i have met a lot of US and UK military officers and i don't believe there is one that would advocate the use of nuclear weapons in anything but an end of days scenario, they are too well schooled in the world of international relations to believe that they could use preemptive or tactical nuclear strikes without retaliation.
There will be a plan for North Korea and how to quickly shut down a nuclear capability, as well as the more likely scenario of taking out the artillery that gravely threatens Seoul, there would have been a plan for the latter for some years - military intelligence will have run many scenarios. I feel safer that the generals are there, than if some of the crackpot civvies that Kelly got rid of, were.
A tactical, surgical special ops approach in order to take out the norths nuclear capability is just as unlikely. It is believed that KJU's nuclear arsenal is over many sites. A simultaneous success at each one is at best improbable and still wouldn't have any effect on the inevitable conventional conflict.
The US really doesn't have the manpower available in the region to undertake a conventional war. The US can't build up enough strength in the region without being massively provocative. It can't "take out" the norths nuclear capability without huge huge risk. The more I read about this the more I am beginning to think that as mighty as it is, the USA doesn't really hold a very good hand and I believe Kim Jong-Un knows exactly this. The Americans are between a rock and a hard place.
It's why I feel that the USA must step back from this and de escalate the rhetoric. KJU's threats and posturing are that of a madman but Trumps words are for the reasons above effectively hollow unless North Korea decide to commit suicide and pre-emptively strike which seems outside of reality.
The US could be banking on the fact that the North still don't quite have the tech for a 100% successful launch, so acting quickly to remove the threat to Seoul could end this thing. I have no idea really, just speculating.
Ultimately, KJU needs to protect the dynasty, and while a US attack is likely suicide, a NK attack is definitely suicide so his hands are tied too.
I cannot see trump dialling down the rhetoric as he should, he's losing fights on too many fronts to start backing off now. Fascinating as an international relations case study, just a shame it's real!
Of course the stakes are much higher here. But as long as Trump doesn't act (because no good will come of it) I won't be over critical of him.
The North Koreans are already indoctrinated to believe that the USA is an evil empire and a threat to their very existence. Trump publicly insulting their leader just reinforces that belief and strengthens Kim's position.
There is also the chance that if you keep poking a mad dog long enough it just might bite.
Trumps actions in this crisis are infantile and not worthy of the leader of the greatest power on earth.
To summarise - there are limited weapons pointed at Seoul (the big guns can't reach), that 25% of their artillery fails, that they can't afford to fire it all at Seoul anyway cos then they'd have no defence left, that ROK defences are well-poised to intercept a lot of it...
I tried looking into this, but only found a handful of sources. A HuffPo article insists Seoul could be levelled, but a US intelligence report to Congress wasn't quite as certain. Anybody know for sure what NK could actually do to the South?
North Korean government officials have been quietly trying to arrange talks with Republican-linked analysts in Washington, in an apparent attempt to make sense of President Trump and his confusing messages to Kim Jong Un’s regime.
...
But the questions have since become more specific. Why, for instance, are Trump’s top officials, notably Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, directly contradicting the president so often?
Dear North Korea,
If you figure it out, could you please let the rest of us know.
Yours,
The World
The North Koreans at the meeting displayed an “encyclopedic” knowledge of Trump’s tweets, to the extent that they were able to quote them back to the Americans present.
Pyongyang’s delegation was headed by Choe Kang Il, deputy director of the Americas division in the foreign ministry, and he was accompanied by three officials in their late 20s who wowed the other participants with their intellectual analysis and their perfect American-accented English. One even explained to the other delegates how the U.S. Congress works.
I'm starting to wonder if they've seen some of the Muppets in the Cabinet and our Congress and they're trying to get a job. Whoever they are, they can't be worse than Betsy DeVos, Rick Parry, or Ben Carson.
I recognise the attraction of a Trump. He appeals to a part of society who believe their voices are not being heard. I can argue Obama, as an African American, was elected on the same basis. Their message however is very different. One sought harmony, unity & equilibrium. The other strives for ascendency & exclusion.
I do wish people however would remember their history. The attraction of people championing their narrow perspective has consequence. In a different time & place people "standing up for their values" sent millions to death camps engulfing millions more in global conflict, one directly linked to this current situation.
Trump is a decent orator. As a person he has the right to represent his views and those who share his views. Yet, like an actor who can only play one role, he still fights a campaign he has already won. Indeed it is the "I won, live with it" approach which drives division. Division which drives fear & resentment and conflict. It is dangerous.
As a democratically elected President he has a responsibility to represent the interests, values and will of an entire nation. Politicians are elected to serve all of the people. A President no matter his personal beliefs is a SERVANT of the people.
His dialogue does connect. Sadly it all too closely resembles the preserve of the playground bully and his acolytes. The Korea statements like most Trump rhetoric, are fraught with catastrophic consequence. Who does his grandiose reckless statements serve? The psyche & bravado of US citizenry? Really? Do we forget Vietnam? Do we forget the angst, turmoil and anger as the body bags of thousands of the fallen were flown home?
How are the people of South Korea & Japan supposed to react to such inflammatory verbiage? How many millions of these innocents would be caught in such conflict? What of the large west coast and smaller Korean communities like Dallas in the US?
What of the US & Global economy? US fiscal debt is already circa $14trillion (China holds $1.25 trillion). or the global banking network.
Each rely on interwoven investment, counter investment, insurance, reassurance, international trade and the free movement of capital. They are inter dependent on the support of nations across the globe. It is on the back of sovereign nation debt the global banking network functions today.
Put the US Presidential comments in context. The idea killing 25mn would cow a Korean leader whose faith in his religious political dynasty (built on the beliefs of centuries) is breathtakingly ignorant.
KJU is rightly condemned for his reckless & inflammatory statements. He however has history to embolden his quest. Schooled by his father, he believes his destiny is to lead an ideology based in the survival of an independent "Korea". It carries the nationalism of a 3rd Reich, the state controls of Stalin and the religious fervour of a Daesh. His father militarized such belief to establish "Korea's" place in the world. KJU has again declared war on the US but for him "a state of war already exists between "Korea" and the "forces of oppression in the south". Background is everything.
"Korea" has been under control of "oppressors" for over a century. KJU is "the hero" fighting the oppressive imperialism of Japan, China, the USSR and the USA. An oppression to which he believes half "his country" is still "betrayed".
On his/ his father's journey the executive has through political machinery forged by the Soviets & religious manipulation of long held beliefs largely reduced his population to serfdom and a perception "Man is God" and KJU is the "Leader of Gods."
He knows in practical terms N. Korea has a population less than 1/12th of the USA.
He knows it is an economically challenged closed society largely reliant on access to $6trillion of mineral resources. Resources which no doubt played a part in Korea's partition after Japans defeat in WWII. A partition which the USSR & the US had agreed was to ultimately to unite the country. It did not.
Yet the leader of this now diminished society, where many citizens live in poverty, has been able to directly engage the leader of the most powerful nation on the planet. So every time you directly engage with his provocation via "a media pissing contest" you elevate his status in his eyes and in the eyes of his people.
Indeed he will be acclaimed by many around the world who detest the USA and its history of abuse of power over many decades. Did we learn nothing of the hate & loathing embodied in the events of 9/11? Do we not recognise the different "value of life" perceptions?
So for now the N. Korean leader "with his nuclear threat" gets to "thumb his nose" at the super powers. His actions are designed to challenge his "oppressors". In provoking Trump "he wins" every time Trump opens his mouth. It is an "ideological template" he wishes others to follow.
The world knows the US military capability all too well.
N Korea knows it is a dangerous game but like a small boy with a catapult firing pebbles at a neighbours window the actions are designed to generate a response. The small boy gets to enjoy the attention and in this case secure a status he and his country would never otherwise receive.
Throwing inter ballistic missiles across the territory of a former colonial master is hugely symbolic.
We know every step taken down this path increases the possibility of a catastrophic error and "a window being broken" but much as you might want to give "the child" a slap there is only one "parent" who will rein this in. It is China and China knows it.
Providing China retains moderate influence it has nothing to lose. To a degree it can sit back as N Korea challenges western influenced societies across the world and a Japan which with has had long term animosity. Such challenges have the advantage of diverting attention from China's own military & territorial ambitions.
Obama played the game. He expressed concern. He expressed alarm. He cautioned there would be consequences. You can now reassure the world of your intent & capability to respond on behalf of yourself and your allies but you keep the responsibility/control where it belongs.... with China.
You apply and ratchet up the pressure on China to bring this man, a threat to their region of the world, under control. You do not verbally attack China, you praise China (which he has now done), you applaud it, you offer your full support for their endeavours in resolving this challenge to world peace. You let them be the hero.
You call on them to play the role they have long sought. They get to raise their influential profile in the world.
Is it worryingly disconcerting? Of course but it is a sign of a changing world. Western society which has for so long had "carte blanche" around the world faces the increasing influence of a new world. Our power is being challenged.
It was always going to happen at some point.
However all the time you choose to stand front & centre in a pointless public verbal interchange going nowhere you actually look increasingly weak.
Every time Trump opens his mouth in threatening retaliation he gives the North Korean leader fresh oxygen. KJU is further emboldened. I imagine Bejiing, Moscow, Tehran behind closed doors relish the US discomfiture.
Dangerous brinkmanship? Undoubtedly, but Trump "stamping his feet" in a muddy pool serves no one.
It is time he left the playground and stopped his mouth writing cheques his country, the world and potentially mankind can ill afford. Can ever such a leader be so palpably out of his depth?
Round of applause
Anyone posting about it on Reddit can only be dealing with hypotheses, surely?
PS. Grapevine just won the internet, again.
It has been claimed that NK has a very significant stockpile of chemical and biological agents. (I refer you to the murder of KJU's half-brother.) And it would be only too well prepared to lob these over the border at the South Korean capital. Indeed, a defector from NK has suggested that these weapons were tested on NK's own population, so I'm sure they wouldn't worry too much about using them on a another country's.