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Staying at/moving from the Valley. What's the business case?

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    Where did this idea about moving even come from?
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    Every club in the Championship (and several in L1) can say

    "In the PL we could sell over 30,000 tickets and make a fortune in corporate hospitality"

    Unfortunatetely, only 20 clubs a can make it at a time, and realistically we will never be a permanent member of the PL, but rather one who will have a moment in the sun from time to time, but who will also have a moment in the brown stuff. Any ground development whether at The Valley or elsewhere need to take this into account, that plan from a few years ago for a 40,000 Valley, for example, seemed wildly optimistic to me at the time.

    I don't think you can state that as fact. Money completely changes football. Who would have thought Man City would be a force in the permiership? Clubs can come from no where to win the title much more these days than in any other period as the right amunt of money (which is a lot and increasing al the time) can buy you the title. And success breeds success, so even if the big funder left you end up with a much beatter squad with higher earning potential than you started with.
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    Every club in the Championship (and several in L1) can say

    "In the PL we could sell over 30,000 tickets and make a fortune in corporate hospitality"

    Unfortunatetely, only 20 clubs a can make it at a time, and realistically we will never be a permanent member of the PL, but rather one who will have a moment in the sun from time to time, but who will also have a moment in the brown stuff. Any ground development whether at The Valley or elsewhere need to take this into account, that plan from a few years ago for a 40,000 Valley, for example, seemed wildly optimistic to me at the time.

    Not so sure that this is the case anymore. Look at the money the clubs that drop down have. QPR are blowing everyone out of the water with their transfer kitty this year. Wigan and reading not far behind. The chances of a plucky little well drilled but cheap squad reaching the top are receding as every season passes. Their will be a select few of 'yo yo' clubs that are not quite good enough for the prem but,with their financial clout, are head and shoulders above anything that the championship offers.

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    Rothko said:

    BTW Razil, the riverside area in Charlton isn't zoned for housing development, its very much industrial and warehouses.

    The riverside from the Anchor along to the gravel yards is going to be new barge yards and offices for Corys.
    The part past the yards and by the yacht club is to have new housing. Seems crazy to me, who would want to live next to all that noise?

    http://853blog.com/2013/07/16/will-murphys-law-blight-new-greenwich-millennium-village-homes/

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    Every club in the Championship (and several in L1) can say

    "In the PL we could sell over 30,000 tickets and make a fortune in corporate hospitality"

    Unfortunatetely, only 20 clubs a can make it at a time, and realistically we will never be a permanent member of the PL, but rather one who will have a moment in the sun from time to time, but who will also have a moment in the brown stuff. Any ground development whether at The Valley or elsewhere need to take this into account, that plan from a few years ago for a 40,000 Valley, for example, seemed wildly optimistic to me at the time.

    Not so sure that this is the case anymore. Look at the money the clubs that drop down have. QPR are blowing everyone out of the water with their transfer kitty this year. Wigan and reading not far behind. The chances of a plucky little well drilled but cheap squad reaching the top are receding as every season passes. Their will be a select few of 'yo yo' clubs that are not quite good enough for the prem but,with their financial clout, are head and shoulders above anything that the championship offers.

    QPR's money didn't keep them up last season though did it? Wolves went down again despite their parachute money. Who would have thought Palace would go up last season, rather than Leicester?

    QPR may or may not do well this season, but ultimately can't rely on having a sugar daddy to pump money in, especially with the new FFP rules. Unlike the likes of Man City, they have a tiny ground and a relatively small supporter base.
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    edited August 2013

    razil said:


    Ebbsfleet in not the centre of our support by numbers. That's probably Eltham/Sidcup. Most supporters live inside the M25, where the population is considerably more dense (read into that what you will!). I'd no more assume people would travel out than in, and I don't advocate leaving London/Greenwich/SE7 for that reason alone, althoughat least in Kent there would probably be parking!
    The Trust asked for the first two digits of the fans post code and you would be surprised at the distribution... I won't quote numbers off the top of my head but the significant answers were SE, DA, BR, TN and ME plus various codes in Kent, Essex and Surrey... we did this to feed supporter details back to branches if the fans stated they were interested.
    Exact mid point needs either the whole database or a way of eliminating bias but the most convenient* transport point by car would be near M25 / A2/ A20 as in minimum cumulative miles for all... by train it all depends.

    NB I am not advocating any such move simply because the Valley does a job right now and there is potential there to expand IMHO

    I really wouldn't be surprised. I've been analysing where our support - season tickets, ticket purchasers and others - lives for more than 20 years. The club database last year had 66k people on it, a rather bigger sample than any survey that could be carried out.

    The biggest postcodes are DA and SE in that order, but much of DA is in the London Borough of Bexley. The others are significant, but these are 60 per cent.
    A survey sample is always going to be smaller than the actual population - and the numbers needed to be accurate are remarkably small. This works as long as the sampling is random. An actuarial colleague showed me a site which calculated you need less than 300 random survey responses to get a good feel for the demographics and opinions of 25,000 people.

    For the season ticket holders who responded and gave a post code, 28% are in DA and 21% are SE which is close to the 60% you quote but for fans who walk up regularly or occasionally the other post codes I mentioned feature more heavily such that for the whole survey 40% of fans responding live in SE or DA...

    Perhaps AB off the top of your head you might recall the distribution of ST holders and more regular fans - 66,000 is an interesting number and I wonder how many of those do make a real commercial contribution and how many of those who don't might in the future? Until that is explored moving grounds seems a bit premature?!

    18% gave the Kent postcodes of TN, ME and CT - the same number as SE ... so DA is probably the centre but for fans living in Surrey, Sussex and Essex somewhere near the M25 might be simpler?

    If the club are willing then perhaps we can test whether the sample is accurate and make allowances if horribly out? Once again where people live (and the facilities) are really secondary to what division we are in and what marketing effort is put in. Given a choice of putting a lot of money into a new stadium or some money to move CAFC up the league I know which one I would go for... The Premier League Sky revenues are there for all to see whereas the return on a new ground might take many years to pay off the investment.
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    Saga Lout said:

    Saga Lout said:

    Playing devil's advocate again. Let's say your favorite band re-formed after 10 years for a gig at the O2 and in the past you always saw them at Wembley, would you say "I'm not going because it's not at Wembley"?

    I do see where people are coming from and my initial reaction to the suggestion of a move to the peninsular was that it would finish me going to games. But would it, or would I (and many others) get used to it over time and drift back? It is Charlton Athletic after all.

    Hello mate.
    Trouble is your favourite band did reform, and at the O2, and like me, we did not get a look in did we.?
    Difference is millions applied for that gig, not too sure about the numbers at the CAFC gig.
    With or without a more comfy seat, and a prawn sandwich, in alleged comfy surroundings.

    Football is an emotive, cultural, evocative sport, not a shopping experience.
    You could change all sorts of things, the club colours, the name, and move. I think they call that branding.
    As Martin Samuels talked yesterday on the Sunday supplement,
    To use his example, based on Coventry,call yourself addicks and you could play anywhere.
    Call yourself Charlton, and step outside SE7, and the issues get very abstract, or words similar.
    Why not move Manchester United to London, after all most of the fans come from around here?

    Point is Ken, when Led Zep reformed and played the O2 I didn't call you up and say "Don't get me a ticket, I only want to see them at Wembley". :-)
    Only played at the O2 mate, unless you wanted to go to the states? which neither of us went to......seemed to be full of rich foreigners and corporate type.
    The bottom line for me is that I do only want to see Charlton at the Valley, not in the car park at Macro's, or at the Peninsular.
    Just a personnal comment. Pity that CAFC can not invest in improving the stadium, and persuading Greenwich to sort out the infastructure as of present, not go into an aspirational dream world of park and ride, and a walkway of eating/drinking venues for what 20 games a year. As a business model this is unsustainable in my opinion where are the costings.
    Are the council going to subsidise a football stadium, and all the infastructure, and rent out eating venues with the 02 so close.
    Yet they cannot sort out the A2 every day of the week. I await to be convinced?


    Exactly my point - you'd go and see Led Zep anywhere you could get a ticket for, but with Charlton you will only see them if they play at the Valley.
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    edited August 2013

    razil said:


    Ebbsfleet in not the centre of our support by numbers. That's probably Eltham/Sidcup. Most supporters live inside the M25, where the population is considerably more dense (read into that what you will!). I'd no more assume people would travel out than in, and I don't advocate leaving London/Greenwich/SE7 for that reason alone, althoughat least in Kent there would probably be parking!
    The Trust asked for the first two digits of the fans post code and you would be surprised at the distribution... I won't quote numbers off the top of my head but the significant answers were SE, DA, BR, TN and ME plus various codes in Kent, Essex and Surrey... we did this to feed supporter details back to branches if the fans stated they were interested.
    Exact mid point needs either the whole database or a way of eliminating bias but the most convenient* transport point by car would be near M25 / A2/ A20 as in minimum cumulative miles for all... by train it all depends.

    NB I am not advocating any such move simply because the Valley does a job right now and there is potential there to expand IMHO

    I really wouldn't be surprised. I've been analysing where our support - season tickets, ticket purchasers and others - lives for more than 20 years. The club database last year had 66k people on it, a rather bigger sample than any survey that could be carried out.

    The biggest postcodes are DA and SE in that order, but much of DA is in the London Borough of Bexley. The others are significant, but these are 60 per cent.
    A survey sample is always going to be smaller than the actual population - and the numbers needed to be accurate are remarkably small. This works as long as the sampling is random. An actuarial colleague showed me a site which calculated you need less than 300 random survey responses to get a good feel for the demographics and opinions of 25,000 people.

    For the season ticket holders who responded and gave a post code, 28% are in DA and 21% are SE which is close to the 60% you quote but for fans who walk up regularly or occasionally the other post codes I mentioned feature more heavily such that for the whole survey 40% of fans responding live in SE or DA...

    Perhaps AB off the top of your head you might recall the distribution of ST holders and more regular fans - 66,000 is an interesting number and I wonder how many of those do make a real commercial contribution and how many of those who don't might in the future? Until that is explored moving grounds seems a bit premature?!

    18% gave the Kent postcodes of TN, ME and CT - the same number as SE ... so DA is probably the centre but for fans living in Surrey, Sussex and Essex somewhere near the M25 might be simpler?

    If the club are willing then perhaps we can test whether the sample is accurate and make allowances if horribly out? Once again where people live (and the facilities) are really secondary to what division we are in and what marketing effort is put in. Given a choice of putting a lot of money into a new stadium or some money to move CAFC up the league I know which one I would go for... The Premier League Sky revenues are there for all to see whereas the return on a new ground might take many years to pay off the investment.
    Yes, I'm aware of the merits and practicalities of sampling, because it is used a great deal in political campaigning, but the fact remains if you've got a bloody great database which tells you who buys what then there's no great point in reinventing the wheel.

    It's always been the case that the ST cohort is biased towards the more affluent areas and the easier journeys to The Valley, which isn't surprising. So in dealing with Kent newspapers, for example, I always used the widest cohort to boost CT, ME and TN.

    Postcodes are not straightforward. TN is partly in East Sussex, for example, BR like DA straddles the Kent county border. And it's unwise to assume if someone lives in Canterbury they would prefer to watch Charlton at Bluewater, just as it's presumptuous to assume someone from Eltham or Welling would travel outside the M25.
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    all is very good in this thread but the fans wont come, only fans we will get extra are those that are born with cafc in their veins

    to compete within the market place for fans you need sustained periods of 5-10 seasons winning things, so we would need to be promoted in the first season

    stay up in the 2nd

    have a good cup run resulting in minimum wembley appearence and stay up in 3rd

    get a place in europe and have a good domestic cup run and stay up in 4th

    win cup in 5th & european place

    European place again in 6th

    Champions league 7th

    Champions league 8th

    Win a cup 9th

    Champions league 10th


    then you will get new fans this will not happen unless a billionaire takes us over and if he does the fact we dont own our ground will not matter as he wont be in it for the money

    if a consortium of business men took over the fact we dont own our ground will matter as the money from gates for achieving the above will not be solely theirs


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    Saga Lout said:

    Saga Lout said:

    Saga Lout said:

    Playing devil's advocate again. Let's say your favorite band re-formed after 10 years for a gig at the O2 and in the past you always saw them at Wembley, would you say "I'm not going because it's not at Wembley"?

    I do see where people are coming from and my initial reaction to the suggestion of a move to the peninsular was that it would finish me going to games. But would it, or would I (and many others) get used to it over time and drift back? It is Charlton Athletic after all.

    Hello mate.
    Trouble is your favourite band did reform, and at the O2, and like me, we did not get a look in did we.?
    Difference is millions applied for that gig, not too sure about the numbers at the CAFC gig.
    With or without a more comfy seat, and a prawn sandwich, in alleged comfy surroundings.

    Football is an emotive, cultural, evocative sport, not a shopping experience.
    You could change all sorts of things, the club colours, the name, and move. I think they call that branding.
    As Martin Samuels talked yesterday on the Sunday supplement,
    To use his example, based on Coventry,call yourself addicks and you could play anywhere.
    Call yourself Charlton, and step outside SE7, and the issues get very abstract, or words similar.
    Why not move Manchester United to London, after all most of the fans come from around here?

    Point is Ken, when Led Zep reformed and played the O2 I didn't call you up and say "Don't get me a ticket, I only want to see them at Wembley". :-)
    Only played at the O2 mate, unless you wanted to go to the states? which neither of us went to......seemed to be full of rich foreigners and corporate type.
    The bottom line for me is that I do only want to see Charlton at the Valley, not in the car park at Macro's, or at the Peninsular.
    Just a personnal comment. Pity that CAFC can not invest in improving the stadium, and persuading Greenwich to sort out the infastructure as of present, not go into an aspirational dream world of park and ride, and a walkway of eating/drinking venues for what 20 games a year. As a business model this is unsustainable in my opinion where are the costings.
    Are the council going to subsidise a football stadium, and all the infastructure, and rent out eating venues with the 02 so close.
    Yet they cannot sort out the A2 every day of the week. I await to be convinced?


    Exactly my point - you'd go and see Led Zep anywhere you could get a ticket for, but with Charlton you will only see them if they play at the Valley.
    guilty as charged......

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    all is very good in this thread but the fans wont come, only fans we will get extra are those that are born with cafc in their veins

    to compete within the market place for fans you need sustained periods of 5-10 seasons winning things, so we would need to be promoted in the first season

    stay up in the 2nd

    have a good cup run resulting in minimum wembley appearence and stay up in 3rd

    get a place in europe and have a good domestic cup run and stay up in 4th

    win cup in 5th & european place

    European place again in 6th

    Champions league 7th

    Champions league 8th

    Win a cup 9th

    Champions league 10th


    then you will get new fans this will not happen unless a billionaire takes us over and if he does the fact we dont own our ground will not matter as he wont be in it for the money

    if a consortium of business men took over the fact we dont own our ground will matter as the money from gates for achieving the above will not be solely theirs


    I'm not sure I entirely agree with this view although what it's says obviously helps. I still maintain that football is changing as are the new generation of customers both actual and potential. I doubt that the current model of football is a goer moving forward and the match day experience of the customer needs to change away from the traditional single use venues, poor catering and merchandising. Given the opportunity to experience a better product off the field I believe that there is a potential for floating customers to be attracted. PL football would of course help. I really don't think that either football or Charlton can ignore what is happening elsewhere in the entertainment business. Change is not something to be scared of.

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    DRF said:

    I think we will have moved by 2025 to the Greenwich Penisular. I think the Valley will be redeveloped with one block of 40 affordable flats and 5 with 40 executive apartments. I think the ground will be part owed by CAFCs new owners, the council and an entertainment company. I think there will be an agreesive marketing campaign which will see the 40,000 stadium sell 25,000 Season tickets along with a number of walk-ups enjoyng the benefits of their 'Greenwich Penisular Pass' giving cheap access to all events on the penisular.

    I know I will still be a season ticket holder.

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    DRF said:

    I think we will have moved by 2025 to the Greenwich Penisular. I think the Valley will be redeveloped with one block of 40 affordable flats and 5 with 40 executive apartments. I think the ground will be part owed by CAFCs new owners, the council and an entertainment company. I think there will be an agreesive marketing campaign which will see the 40,000 stadium sell 25,000 Season tickets along with a number of walk-ups enjoyng the benefits of their 'Greenwich Penisular Pass' giving cheap access to all events on the penisular.

    I know I will still be a season ticket holder.

    Ditto

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    I think DRF is party to something i was told before last christmas. The Valley is to become Charlton Village 2, a new housing development and we will go to the peninsular.
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    Without reading this thread all the way through, why not just build houses on the peninsula and save the money it would save to buy the Valley?
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    I think DRF is party to something i was told before last christmas. The Valley is to become Charlton Village 2, a new housing development and we will go to the peninsular.

    Thanks Baldy. Can you elaborate on that at all ?

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    edited August 2013
    Just a brief update on the ACV...... just before some of you dash off to the Peninsular........ or not!
    Myself and se9Addick had a most constructive and positive meeting with the 2 council officers who are dealing with the application.
    Being supported by CAFC Board, and the online petition seemed to be a persuading factor that the 2 council officers seemed impressed by.
    Along with support from the local MP's, councillors, and other community leaders the application seems to be on course for hopefullly a positive response.
    But the important and overwhelming factor will be wether it used, and valued by the community, and therefore anybody who has not signed the petition please do so.
    The link below will allow you to do so.
    http://www.castrust.org/valleyacv/
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    I think DRF is party to something i was told before last christmas. The Valley is to become Charlton Village 2, a new housing development and we will go to the peninsular.

    Thanks Baldy. Can you elaborate on that at all ?

    Wait for it, wait for it!
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    I think DRF is party to something i was told before last christmas. The Valley is to become Charlton Village 2, a new housing development and we will go to the peninsular.

    And "Addicks Place" is already in situ...

    Think I'll delay buying my brick for a while.

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    I think DRF is party to something i was told before last christmas. The Valley is to become Charlton Village 2, a new housing development and we will go to the peninsular.

    Thanks Baldy. Can you elaborate on that at all ?

    Wait for it, wait for it!
    Blimey. Touchy or what ;0)

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    why would non family related fans come to watch a team in the championship, They wouldnt any new fans would come to watch prem football at a minimum and then want more we saw it ourselves SHG with the 27k that came week in week out , where are they now prob at Fulham or west ham

    we do not justify a bigger ground than we have nor do we need one, and there is no business case in the world that can be presented to me in any form that will change my mind,

    It is a nonsense Idea and la la land
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    why would non family related fans come to watch a team in the championship, They wouldnt any new fans would come to watch prem football at a minimum and then want more we saw it ourselves SHG with the 27k that came week in week out , where are they now prob at Fulham or west ham

    we do not justify a bigger ground than we have nor do we need one, and there is no business case in the world that can be presented to me in any form that will change my mind,

    It is a nonsense Idea and la la land

    I agree "we" (Charlton Ath) don't. But don't you think that owners might consider a more flexible venue that had possibly more than one revenue stream with more than one sport with possibility for concerts with commercial potential with conference and restaurants in a very good and trendy location might consider it attractive ?

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    Off course they do. And that's what is so bloody scary.
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    edited August 2013
    Owners yes but anyone who takes over cafc and sells the ground will not imo then use the money on a new ground, the ground will be sold and turned into housing and then a joint venture with greenwich council and others will then build a ground which cafc will be main tennant

    from what i recall RM wanted something similar and i wouldve been as adamant then as i am now


    now if the goonershite model was followed i still wouldnt like it and i wouldnt go no more as the history of what was achieved and what it meant wouldve meant nothing but what you say would hold creadence as we would get the revenue stream
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    edited August 2013
    My only fear is that at any new ground we will be tenants and not owners and the same fate as befell (e.g.) Coventry could befall us. Ownership is ALL
    In principle a move to a brand new modern stadium with better transport links and parking would be ideal. I don't have a rose coloured view about the 'good old days' at the valley, times move on
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    Unfortunately any new owners are unlikely to be Charlton supporters but see us as a business opportunity that if done in the right way with additional spin offs and revenue streams could just be a very good investment. The club as it stands is moribund without significant luck and not insignificant investment. I don't see many businessmen falling over each other to get involved with the club in the present model.
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    i could live with us owning it and i would only have my own thoughts and morales on it and could see sense in the move however any move will not have us as owners unless we get a billionare and if we do then just build on the current site
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    Just a brief update on the ACV...... just before some of you dash off to the Peninsular........ or not!
    Myself and se9Addick had a most constructive and positive meeting with the 2 council officers who are dealing with the application.
    Being supported by CAFC Board, and the online petition seemed to be a persuading factor that the 2 council officers seemed impressed by.
    Along with support from the local MP's, councillors, and other community leaders the application seems to be on course for hopefullly a positive response.
    But the important and overwhelming factor will be wether it used, and valued by the community, and therefore anybody who has not signed the petition please do so.
    The link below will allow you to do so.
    http://www.castrust.org/valleyacv/


    If the current plans are true, ACV really won't help us at all. I suspect this is why the board are happy to support it.
  • Options

    Just a brief update on the ACV...... just before some of you dash off to the Peninsular........ or not!
    Myself and se9Addick had a most constructive and positive meeting with the 2 council officers who are dealing with the application.
    Being supported by CAFC Board, and the online petition seemed to be a persuading factor that the 2 council officers seemed impressed by.
    Along with support from the local MP's, councillors, and other community leaders the application seems to be on course for hopefullly a positive response.
    But the important and overwhelming factor will be wether it used, and valued by the community, and therefore anybody who has not signed the petition please do so.
    The link below will allow you to do so.
    http://www.castrust.org/valleyacv/


    If the current plans are true, ACV really won't help us at all. I suspect this is why the board are happy to support it.
    Not sure what you mean by 'not help at all' Stu.......
    Once the Valley is secured as an asset the club are duty bound to inform the council, for 5 years.
    Of course they could buy, build or take over another stadium, in the present legislation but that is not at issue.
    This is about selling the Valley.

    Quite where they would get the money from is open to speculation, and this very posting in regard to the peninsular is one such possibility?
    I do not understand the position that not knowing about a possible sale of the Valley is better or no worse than being informed.
    I leave you to consider the words of Steve Bradshaw in regard to consultation in relation to ACV.
    He has given a firm undertaking on the CAFC website........
    “There are no current plans to move stadium, and of course we would always give fans the opportunity to have their say in the event that such a situation arose, so the club would support proposals that would formalise this right to consultation.”
    Read more at http://www.cafc.co.uk/news/article/20130722-have-a-say-in-the-valleys-future-935037.aspx#TBLyLFaPrKprAbEx.99

    I do not remember the club ever stating that publicly?...... as a matter of policy.
    If nothing else the application of ACV has produced this, and quite possibly a consultation period.
    Not a perfect situation, but better than nothing, which your post alludes to?


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    why would non family related fans come to watch a team in the championship, They wouldnt any new fans would come to watch prem football at a minimum and then want more we saw it ourselves SHG with the 27k that came week in week out , where are they now prob at Fulham or west ham

    we do not justify a bigger ground than we have nor do we need one, and there is no business case in the world that can be presented to me in any form that will change my mind,

    It is a nonsense Idea and la la land

    I think thats nonsense. I go to the Valley with four people: two who go because of family, one who moved to the area when we were in the championship and wanted to support his local team (being non English and therefore not supporting a rival) and one who grew up with a mother who hates football and no Dad to take him so went with his neighbour.

    If it worked the way you suggest why would we ever bother to advertise? You talk about not getting the 27k that we did in the prem but not all of those went away, it is up to the club to make the occasional visitors passionate enough to stay.
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