Always nice to have the Greatest Jockey on your side. Lydia Hislop reckons HL to be the chief danger to her selection Lord Windermere. I've been weighing up the unfancied runners as I do like to have an e/w interest in a real long-shot in a rough, tough staying handicap chase, especially when 5 places are on offer. I'm sorely tempted by Same Difference at 40s but, aside from the fact that Super Duty is 11lbs better off today against Same Diff than when touched off by him in the Kim Muir (admittedly 7lbs is down to jockey's allowance in the KM but it was an amateur jocks race), I just can't put out of my mind the current poor form of the Twiston-Davies yard. NTD has 5 runners today ahead of the Hennessy and if they show signs of a change I may yet have a nibble if that price holds. However, putting aside the bald stats (or going with them if I cheat and ignore his last two PUs - there may be reason to), I've taken a flier on another second-season chaser, Opening Batsman offered at 50/1 by Bet365 (5 places). He won the Racing Plus Chase last Feb in very good style but his next two runs (the last 4 weeks ago) were too bad to be true. What piques my interest is the first time application of cheek pieces and, more significantly, tongue-tie. Trainer Harry Fry is in good form and at 50/1 and 5 e/w places, I fancy a small punt that they may do the trick and at least get him in the shake up.
as you say Peanuts, 5 places EW gives punters a good chance as there are a lot of good horses in this race. It makes a change
Invictus beat Bob's Worth, well weighted, we'll see .. I've taken the easy road: Lord Windermere to win .. Katenko, Cloudy Too, Imperial Commander, Houblon des Obeaux all small e.w. bets ... thought about backing the field for a minute, only for a minute mind ((:>)
Invictus beat Bob's Worth, well weighted, we'll see .. I've taken the easy road: Lord Windermere to win .. Katenko, Cloudy Too, Imperial Commander, Houblon des Obeaux all small e.w. bets ... thought about backing the field for a minute, only for a minute mind ((:>)
Did you not go with Theatre Guide in the end? Thought he looked the winner coming into the straight.
Sorry to miss the winner ladies and gents. Hope you got your stake more or less back with HL's 4th if you followed my selections - he was carried out on his shield, as they say. Triolo d'Alene too young (according to the stats) to take the 2014 GN (would only be a 7y-o) but now with a Hennessy victory on top of a win over the National fences last April he's heavily ticked a couple of boxes for a future GN.
Invictus beat Bob's Worth, well weighted, we'll see .. I've taken the easy road: Lord Windermere to win .. Katenko, Cloudy Too, Imperial Commander, Houblon des Obeaux all small e.w. bets ... thought about backing the field for a minute, only for a minute mind ((:>)
Did you not go with Theatre Guide in the end? Thought he looked the winner coming into the straight.
I did .. just a VERY last minute £1 ew .. so not quite a blow out .. Tizzard had a nice result at N'Castle with Hey Big Spender in a 3 mile chase .. he's the man so far for the longer distances over fences
Triolo d'Alene now the bookies fav for the 2014 GN at 20/1 top price (PP at 16s). The handicapper's raised him 9lb for his Hennessy win, putting him on an OR of 156. Henderson et al have been talking about running Long Run in the GN and (with his current OR of 168) it's likely LR would be the highest-rated entry (Tidal Bay's OR now down to 163). If the handicapper compresses the GN marks in a similar fashion to last year (Tidal Bay dropped 9lbs to 162 for the race), unless there is an entry from a 172+ rated horse (currently one of Silv Conti, Cue Card, Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre - therefore one would think almost inconceivable) or Long Run somehow reverses his moderate recent form and OR downgrade, TdA seems likely set to carry AT LEAST 11.04 in the GN, probably more (assuming that the handicapper doesn't invent a new "7 y-o" factor to give him a favourable adjustment which, in light of his Topham win, would seem anomalous with previous cases of runners with success over the course). A few facts to consider from GNs since at least 1989: 1. No 7 y-o has won the GN since 1940 2. No 7 y-o has made the first 5 in the GN or finished within 20L of the GN winners 3. The closest that a 7 y-o carrying 11.04+ has finished to a GN winner is 50L 4. No horse younger than 9 has carried 11.04+ to win the GN since 1983 5. The only 7 y-o GN runner that was a former Hennessy winner was Ghofar in 1990 (14th, 72L behind Mr Frisk). 6. The only 7 y-o GN runners previously placed in the Hennessy were Eudipe in 1999 (fell at 2nd Bechers when behind) and Madison Du Berlais in 2008 (fell at the 8th) 7. The only 7 y-o GN runner previously placed in a race over the GN fences (twice in fact) was Le Duc in 2006 (UR 8th) It is true that, of the 38 7y-os to run in the GN since 1989, none had won over the GN fences let alone also been a Hennessy winner. That rare (unique at least since 1989) combination suggests that TdA could put in an unusually strong showing for a youngster but my dear old model (dusted off and updated for all the vagaries of last year's GN) does suggest that (on current stats) the combination of youth and weight will stop him from winning. More GN clues maybe in the Becher Chase on Saturday.
Favourites:Goonyella (10), Rocky Creek (10), Sydney Paget (10), Highland Lodge (12), Merry King (14), Alfie Sherrin (16), Boyfromnowhere (16), Godsmejudge (16), Goulanes (16), Hawkes Point (16), Mountainous (16), On His Own (16), Panther Claw (16), Silver By Nature (16), Teaforthree (16), Vesper Bell (16), Vintage Star (16), Dedigout (20), Nuts N Bolts (20), Tidal Bay (20)
Indeed Abs but can't find the right Dude for Chepstow until the decs (Tidal Bay's participation or not will be crucial to where the stats take us) and in the meantime I'm getting itchy digits.
The henessey runners are prominent in the market but would be concerned about these given the attritional nature of this race. Sounds like Invictus may be a long term casualty of this race.
Some cracking racing at Sandown and Aintree today, even sans Sprinter. Intriguing Becher Chase at 2.05pm. Surely never has a Becher chase had so many runners with previous experience (mostly creditable) over the GN fences. One or two interesting newcomers to the course, not least Vesper Bell. One to watch rather than bet in but for old times' sake I can't resist a small interest in 12 y-o Swing Bill, now running in the Amberleigh House colours but still with Pipe. Heart is not entirely ruling head (though I'll probably be saying different at 2.15pm!). Hello Bud won this as a 12 and 14 year old so age doesn't rule him out. Good to Soft should suit and Pipe's had him fit enough to win first time out last two seasons. Off a mark 2lbs lower than when close 4th last Becher Chase and 6th in his last outing in the GN, with Bet365 (also PP and Boylesports) paying 5 places I shall have a nibble (very small) with them each way at the 16s. Later at Sandown, race after the Tingle Creek, Godsmejudge carries top-weight in the 29f London National. Another day for future GN clues.
Some cracking racing at Sandown and Aintree today, even sans Sprinter. Intriguing Becher Chase at 2.05pm. Surely never has a Becher chase had so many runners with previous experience (mostly creditable) over the GN fences. One or two interesting newcomers to the course, not least Vesper Bell. One to watch rather than bet in but for old times' sake I can't resist a small interest in 12 y-o Swing Bill, now running in the Amberleigh House colours but still with Pipe. Heart is not entirely ruling head (though I'll probably be saying different at 2.15pm!). Hello Bud won this as a 12 and 14 year old so age doesn't rule him out. Good to Soft should suit and Pipe's had him fit enough to win first time out last two seasons. Off a mark 2lbs lower than when close 4th last Becher Chase and 6th in his last outing in the GN, with Bet365 (also PP and Boylesports) paying 5 places I shall have a nibble (very small) with them each way at the 16s. Later at Sandown, race after the Tingle Creek, Godsmejudge carries top-weight in the 29f London National. Another day for future GN clues.
In a very open race, going for Planet of Sound at 18s with Coral.
Some cracking racing at Sandown and Aintree today, even sans Sprinter. Intriguing Becher Chase at 2.05pm. Surely never has a Becher chase had so many runners with previous experience (mostly creditable) over the GN fences. One or two interesting newcomers to the course, not least Vesper Bell. One to watch rather than bet in but for old times' sake I can't resist a small interest in 12 y-o Swing Bill, now running in the Amberleigh House colours but still with Pipe. Heart is not entirely ruling head (though I'll probably be saying different at 2.15pm!). Hello Bud won this as a 12 and 14 year old so age doesn't rule him out. Good to Soft should suit and Pipe's had him fit enough to win first time out last two seasons. Off a mark 2lbs lower than when close 4th last Becher Chase and 6th in his last outing in the GN, with Bet365 (also PP and Boylesports) paying 5 places I shall have a nibble (very small) with them each way at the 16s. Later at Sandown, race after the Tingle Creek, Godsmejudge carries top-weight in the 29f London National. Another day for future GN clues.
In a very open race, going for Planet of Sound at 18s with Coral.
Very winnable weight. Would have won that 2012 National if it had been a mile shorter! Good luck.
Indeed Abs, interesting to see how he copes with the fences. Only 1 7y-o has won the Becher since 1994 (Silver Birch in 2004, shortly before winning the Welsh Nat) so a biggish ask but certainly bred to stay and obviously Mullins and owners (not short of a bob or two) have high regard for his potential. Bon chance.
Some cracking racing at Sandown and Aintree today, even sans Sprinter. Intriguing Becher Chase at 2.05pm. Surely never has a Becher chase had so many runners with previous experience (mostly creditable) over the GN fences. One or two interesting newcomers to the course, not least Vesper Bell. One to watch rather than bet in but for old times' sake I can't resist a small interest in 12 y-o Swing Bill, now running in the Amberleigh House colours but still with Pipe. Heart is not entirely ruling head (though I'll probably be saying different at 2.15pm!). Hello Bud won this as a 12 and 14 year old so age doesn't rule him out. Good to Soft should suit and Pipe's had him fit enough to win first time out last two seasons. Off a mark 2lbs lower than when close 4th last Becher Chase and 6th in his last outing in the GN, with Bet365 (also PP and Boylesports) paying 5 places I shall have a nibble (very small) with them each way at the 16s. Later at Sandown, race after the Tingle Creek, Godsmejudge carries top-weight in the 29f London National. Another day for future GN clues.
In a very open race, going for Planet of Sound at 18s with Coral.
Very winnable weight. Would have won that 2012 National if it had been a mile shorter! Good luck.
Comments
Rocky Creek 8/1
Theatre Guide 33/1
Highland Lodge 6/1
Merry King 9/1
Super Duty never looked happy, jumped poorly.
Triolo d'Alene too young (according to the stats) to take the 2014 GN (would only be a 7y-o) but now with a Hennessy victory on top of a win over the National fences last April he's heavily ticked a couple of boxes for a future GN.
The handicapper's raised him 9lb for his Hennessy win, putting him on an OR of 156.
Henderson et al have been talking about running Long Run in the GN and (with his current OR of 168) it's likely LR would be the highest-rated entry (Tidal Bay's OR now down to 163). If the handicapper compresses the GN marks in a similar fashion to last year (Tidal Bay dropped 9lbs to 162 for the race), unless there is an entry from a 172+ rated horse (currently one of Silv Conti, Cue Card, Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre - therefore one would think almost inconceivable) or Long Run somehow reverses his moderate recent form and OR downgrade, TdA seems likely set to carry AT LEAST 11.04 in the GN, probably more (assuming that the handicapper doesn't invent a new "7 y-o" factor to give him a favourable adjustment which, in light of his Topham win, would seem anomalous with previous cases of runners with success over the course).
A few facts to consider from GNs since at least 1989:
1. No 7 y-o has won the GN since 1940
2. No 7 y-o has made the first 5 in the GN or finished within 20L of the GN winners
3. The closest that a 7 y-o carrying 11.04+ has finished to a GN winner is 50L
4. No horse younger than 9 has carried 11.04+ to win the GN since 1983
5. The only 7 y-o GN runner that was a former Hennessy winner was Ghofar in 1990 (14th, 72L behind Mr Frisk).
6. The only 7 y-o GN runners previously placed in the Hennessy were Eudipe in 1999 (fell at 2nd Bechers when behind) and Madison Du Berlais in 2008 (fell at the 8th)
7. The only 7 y-o GN runner previously placed in a race over the GN fences (twice in fact) was Le Duc in 2006 (UR 8th)
It is true that, of the 38 7y-os to run in the GN since 1989, none had won over the GN fences let alone also been a Hennessy winner. That rare (unique at least since 1989) combination suggests that TdA could put in an unusually strong showing for a youngster but my dear old model (dusted off and updated for all the vagaries of last year's GN) does suggest that (on current stats) the combination of youth and weight will stop him from winning.
More GN clues maybe in the Becher Chase on Saturday.
Favourites:Goonyella (10), Rocky Creek (10), Sydney Paget (10), Highland Lodge (12), Merry King (14), Alfie Sherrin (16), Boyfromnowhere (16), Godsmejudge (16), Goulanes (16), Hawkes Point (16), Mountainous (16), On His Own (16), Panther Claw (16), Silver By Nature (16), Teaforthree (16), Vesper Bell (16), Vintage Star (16), Dedigout (20), Nuts N Bolts (20), Tidal Bay (20)
Sounds like Invictus may be a long term casualty of this race.
Intriguing Becher Chase at 2.05pm. Surely never has a Becher chase had so many runners with previous experience (mostly creditable) over the GN fences. One or two interesting newcomers to the course, not least Vesper Bell.
One to watch rather than bet in but for old times' sake I can't resist a small interest in 12 y-o Swing Bill, now running in the Amberleigh House colours but still with Pipe.
Heart is not entirely ruling head (though I'll probably be saying different at 2.15pm!). Hello Bud won this as a 12 and 14 year old so age doesn't rule him out. Good to Soft should suit and Pipe's had him fit enough to win first time out last two seasons.
Off a mark 2lbs lower than when close 4th last Becher Chase and 6th in his last outing in the GN, with Bet365 (also PP and Boylesports) paying 5 places I shall have a nibble (very small) with them each way at the 16s.
Later at Sandown, race after the Tingle Creek, Godsmejudge carries top-weight in the 29f London National.
Another day for future GN clues.