Phew, Bill squeezes into the last e/w place yet again. Impressive win by Chance Du Roy but what a great run by Baby Run, 13 years old and 959 days since his last run. Fantastic. NTD's horses well and truly back in biz in the last week.
Got to give a shout to northstandsteve who spotted Chance Du Roy as a future GN chance when a strong finishing second over 2.5miles at Chepstow a couple of years ago, before he'd ever faced the National fences. Close 2nd on the Topham and now a Becher winner, could it be?
Not good to see Godsmejudge PU at Sandown - hopefully nothing serious. Re Chance Du Roy, Hobbs has said that they'll have to think about a GN entry, though the trainer himself may pose the biggest problem for CdR's GN chance - tending to make the perennial mistake of giving his GN runners a long break before the big day (a sizeable stat negative). Of course, the handicapper could also scupper his chances if he clobbers him by the time he frames the GN weights though, off a 135OR today there's quite a bit of slack. There will be doubts about a 4.5m trip but, even so, I'm surprised that CdR (25~40/1 with the bookies) is pretty friendless on Betfair for the 2014 GN (traded at 140 since the race). Maybe punters don't rate the quality of that Becher win with a long-absent 13 year old so close at the finish but CdR seemed to me to be idling rather than running out of gas (had his ears pricked and more than held his own when Baby Run threatened to come upsides - and it was STD who over-used the whip). The Becher on Soft is a decent stamina test and the time clocked relative to standard was good in comparison with the following Grand Sefton. Unsurprisingly, the Becher chase has had a good correlation with GN success down the years though it's not a simple equation. However, on a quick calculation, assuming that CdR carries a sensible weight and that he gets a completed prep after the weights are announced, he could be one of my model's top 4 GN selections (liable to be ground dependent) and he is currently well ahead of Triolo d'Alene, who carries the 7y-o bogey. TdA remains fav on Betfair (23) and with the bookies (20/1). It's true that TdA beat CdR by 25L in the Topham last year but he was getting a stone from CdR and the GN is altogether different gravy to the 22f Topham, especially for a youngster. In any case, the handicapper could raise CdR 7lbs and he'd be a stone lower than TdA next time.
Peanuts, i gotta have a bit of anti on Chance Du Roy, he really stood out for me that day at Chepstow.
I'm impressed Chief. To pick him out in a 2.5m Chepstow handicap is very astute. Whether he ever wins a GN or not, to win a large-field, soft-ground Becher is no mean feat and, according to the stats, could give him a serious chance (if Hobbsy doesn't get cold feet or screw up the prep!). Have to confess I couldn't resist a nibble at 100s to win on Betfair after Saturday, though I'd always want to be e/w with 5 or 6-place bookies for GN selections ultimately (unlikely to get anything near that with the bookies unless he runs a couple of stinkers beforehand). We'll find out tomorrow how the handicapper viewed that win. He needs a rise to guarantee a run but difficult to imagine it being so large as to knacker his chance. We'll see. Anyway, long way to go yet.
What you think of Chelters next year? I can't wait already!
What are your thoughts on the Arkle? Surely CF? I'm yet to see anything that can take that on...
Supreme's I like a horse called The Liquidator, ran a blinder in the Champion Bumper and been pretty much faultless in his hurdle starts already. I can't see Briar Hill going 2m at Cheltenham, I'm not convinced by Henderson's West Wizard and after those, I can't see much left in the betting tbh! Anything you like?
What you think of Chelters next year? I can't wait already!
What are your thoughts on the Arkle? Surely CF? I'm yet to see anything that can take that on...
Supreme's I like a horse called The Liquidator, ran a blinder in the Champion Bumper and been pretty much faultless in his hurdle starts already. I can't see Briar Hill going 2m at Cheltenham, I'm not convinced by Henderson's West Wizard and after those, I can't see much left in the betting tbh! Anything you like?
Thanks for asking Frontline9 but tbh I haven't a clue when it comes to 2 milers. Love Cheltenham of course and the 2 mile chases can be awesome spectacles (One Man winning the Queen Mum chase is still my top Festival memory) but, as regards successful tips, I'm a one trick pony I'm afraid - the Aintree National..........and a man's got to know his limitations.
Comments
Impressive win by Chance Du Roy but what a great run by Baby Run, 13 years old and 959 days since his last run. Fantastic. NTD's horses well and truly back in biz in the last week.
Close 2nd on the Topham and now a Becher winner, could it be?
Re Chance Du Roy, Hobbs has said that they'll have to think about a GN entry, though the trainer himself may pose the biggest problem for CdR's GN chance - tending to make the perennial mistake of giving his GN runners a long break before the big day (a sizeable stat negative). Of course, the handicapper could also scupper his chances if he clobbers him by the time he frames the GN weights though, off a 135OR today there's quite a bit of slack.
There will be doubts about a 4.5m trip but, even so, I'm surprised that CdR (25~40/1 with the bookies) is pretty friendless on Betfair for the 2014 GN (traded at 140 since the race). Maybe punters don't rate the quality of that Becher win with a long-absent 13 year old so close at the finish but CdR seemed to me to be idling rather than running out of gas (had his ears pricked and more than held his own when Baby Run threatened to come upsides - and it was STD who over-used the whip). The Becher on Soft is a decent stamina test and the time clocked relative to standard was good in comparison with the following Grand Sefton.
Unsurprisingly, the Becher chase has had a good correlation with GN success down the years though it's not a simple equation. However, on a quick calculation, assuming that CdR carries a sensible weight and that he gets a completed prep after the weights are announced, he could be one of my model's top 4 GN selections (liable to be ground dependent) and he is currently well ahead of Triolo d'Alene, who carries the 7y-o bogey. TdA remains fav on Betfair (23) and with the bookies (20/1).
It's true that TdA beat CdR by 25L in the Topham last year but he was getting a stone from CdR and the GN is altogether different gravy to the 22f Topham, especially for a youngster. In any case, the handicapper could raise CdR 7lbs and he'd be a stone lower than TdA next time.
Have to confess I couldn't resist a nibble at 100s to win on Betfair after Saturday, though I'd always want to be e/w with 5 or 6-place bookies for GN selections ultimately (unlikely to get anything near that with the bookies unless he runs a couple of stinkers beforehand).
We'll find out tomorrow how the handicapper viewed that win. He needs a rise to guarantee a run but difficult to imagine it being so large as to knacker his chance. We'll see.
Anyway, long way to go yet.
What you think of Chelters next year? I can't wait already!
What are your thoughts on the Arkle? Surely CF? I'm yet to see anything that can take that on...
Supreme's I like a horse called The Liquidator, ran a blinder in the Champion Bumper and been pretty much faultless in his hurdle starts already. I can't see Briar Hill going 2m at Cheltenham, I'm not convinced by Henderson's West Wizard and after those, I can't see much left in the betting tbh! Anything you like?