Decs Friday. Race Saturday.
Stats crunched. Database = winners &"near-things" (<4L) 1989-2012. Cut to the chase, all eliminated except:
HIGHLAND LODGE (9/1Lads & Boylesports) and
VINTAGE STAR (16/1 generally)
Happy to elaborate on why these two tick all the boxes and others don't, if anyone would like to know.
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Had HL for the Hennessy, came 4th.
This is part of an email, I got from a mate who owns a few horse that are trained by Gary Moore.
Gary was quite bullish about the Welsh National. The horse is called Well Refreshed & although a bit of a hairy jumper Gary thinks if his jumping stands up he can’t see him out of the first four! Let’s see if he’s right.
PART 1
Well a quick and dirty elimination method last year elicited the winner Monbeg Dude from 2 selections, using the career stats of the last 16 winners, from 1997 (Earth Summit).
Flushed with naive optimism that this was something other than sheer fluke, I’m going for an encore but it’s a good deal trickier this time.
Last time weight eliminated 5 runners but Tidal Bay’s presence keeps the weights down (10lbs lower) for all the rest and means that: a) both runners above the key 11.00 threshold (Tidal Bay and Teaforthree) have the requisite stats to carry their weight and b) for the other 18 runners, we need other factors to sort the men from the boys. 8 run from out of the handicap (up to 11lbs) but doing so is not a stopper per se (Supreme Glory o/h 3 won in 2001 and both last 2 WNs had a horse from o/h make the frame - Arbor Supreme 4th 16L last year was o/h 9).
So, I’ve expanded (from 16 to 33) the database to include the 20 winners and 13 near-things (<4L) of all WNs from 1989 (some races having been lost to the weather over the years) and employed a crude version of some of the stat-tests that are used for the GN model.
Despite the larger database, my WN stat-system is still very much work in progress and remains an elimination-style process, rather than the score-based model used for the GN. It therefore comes with a LOW conviction (and low stakes) caution but I’m happy to wheel it out and back it with few of the shillings that Santa kindly lobbed in my stocking.
NB. In accordance with my “near-thing” rule, in assessing the runners’ career stats, a finish <4L is described as a win in the analysis.
1. Age – not too old
19/20 winners and 12/13 near-things were 9 years old or younger. The two exceptions (Riverside Boy, winner 1993, and Jocks Cross, 2nd 2001) were both 10y-os, carried <10.05. More significantly, both had made the frame in a previous WN.
Mileage is perhaps as much the issue as age. The most chase runs by a winner or near-thing since 1989 is 24 (Bindaree, 2003 with 10.09). Interestingly, he too had been placed in a previous WN and, confirming that trend, in 2004 (as a 10y-o with 27 chases on the clock) he was 5th 5.5L with 11.06.
Since 1989, the highest mileage of any WN winner or near-thing without previously having made the frame in the WN is 17 chases.
Tidal Bay is 12y-o and, at least last season, was still top drawer. He is capable of running a big race on Saturday on ground that he should like but, with 24 chases on the clock, he is place potential only.
Eliminate:
• Tidal Bay (12y-o, 24 chases – none at Chepstow)
• Hey Big Spender (10y-o - 25 chases - Fell WN 2011).
2. Age – not too young
It’s also notable that all of the WN winners and near-things younger than 7y-o have been French-bred. Indeed, they have an excellent strike rate, contributing 2 WN winners and 4 near-things as 5~6y-olds since 1997 (from just 13 runners). They are typically early-maturing relative to Irish and UK bred horses and their contrast in success is stark. Of 11 UK or Irish-bred 5~6y-os running in the WN since 1997, none have been placed. They include future GN & WN heroes Comply Or Die, McKelvey and Dream Alliance, who all failed to finish.
Of course there’s more to it than just breeding. Each of the successful 5~6 y-os had already run in at least 10 jumps races under Rules in the UK (at least 13 including French jumps) and had notable staying credentials (placed in a National and/or >50% win rate at 26f+ [2+ wins]).
Of the 4 6y-os in Saturday’s field, only Tour Des Champs (Fr – 19 jumps races under Rules and placed in the Scottish National) shares this profile:
Eliminate:
• Merry King (Ire)
• Goonyella (Ire)
• Amigo (Fr)
3. Ability at 3m+
All 20 winners and 13 near-things ticked at least one of the following boxes:
a) 50%+ win rate in 24f+ chases (min 4 runs), including a Class 1 (or Cl2 with 11.00+)
b) Made the frame in at least 66.6% of chases at 26f+, including a win with 11.00+
c) Won a Cl1 or 2 chase at 30f+
d) Placed in a Welsh, Scottish, Irish or Aintree National or another Cl1 4m+ chase or Hennessy
• Eliminate: Wyck Hill, Hawkes Point, Knock A Hand, Chartreux, Mountainous, Ace High, Red Rocco & Harouet
4. Aptitude for Chepstow
Chepstow is a galloping track with significant undulations and fairly stiff fences. It suits some horses and not others. 14/20 winners and 10/13 near-things had won a chase at Chepstow or made the frame in the Welsh National.
Of the 9 exceptions, 8 had never raced there but for most of these there were strong clues as to their ability to handle the course in the way of form at other galloping AND undulating tracks, particularly Cheltenham, Carlisle and Exeter (all, like Chepstow, extremely testing when soft~heavy): 3 had made the frame at Exeter over 3m+ on Sft~Hvy with 11.00+, 1 had done likewise at Carlisle and 2 others had won at 3m+ at Cheltenham, while 1 (Notre Pere, won 2008) had never raced in the UK but had won on Hvy with 11.00+ at both Navan and Punchestown (both galloping and undulating). Of the 2 remaining exceptions, 1 had never run in a chase at such a track, leaving just 1 outlier (Mini Sensation, won 2002) which had a single PU at Cheltenham.
Borderline:
• Well Refreshed (failure at Cheltenham and best form is on flat tracks but did win a 3m chase on Hvy at Lingfield, hilly but relatively sharp)
• Tour Des Champs (staying-on 2nd 7L over 25f at Cheltenham)
5. Ability on Soft~Heavy
19/20 winners and 12/13 near-things ticked one or more of the following boxes, all on Soft~Heavy:
a) Placed in a previous Welsh National or won 3m+ chase at Chepstow (either Cl1 or with 11.00+)
b) Made the frame in a Cl1 4m+ chase
c) Won 3m+ chase with 11.00+
The 2 exceptions had only run in 4 chases. One had won a 3m chase at Chepstow on GS, the other had never run in a chase on Sft~Hvy but had won a 25f hurdle on Soft.
Eliminate: none (all remaining are proven on Sft~Hvy at 3m+)
6. Current Well-being
All winners and near-things had run less than 60 days prior and 14/16 winners and 11/13 near-things had either made the frame or finished <10L of the winner. Of the 4 exceptions, 3 were “Chepstow specialists” (with a career 66%+ Made The Frame Ratio from 3+ Chepstow chases, including at least one 3m+ win carrying 11.00+) and so the fact rather than the quality of their prep was significant, since they could be expected to show better on a favourite track.
Eliminate:
• Goulanes
• One In A Milan
Borderline:
• Teaforthree (a Chepstow specialist but no run since 3rd in GN – very rare to run in WN as first run of the season)
While it's not a race for long shots (25/1 is the longest priced winner), recently it’s also not been a fantastic race for favourites. Only 1 favourite has been victorious in the 16 WNs from 1997, though 3 have been near-things. Prior to 1997, favourites had a much better record, winning 5 of the 6 prior renewals. This is not an elimination stat however, just an observation.
SO, there remain 2 runners that have passed all of the stat-tests above and are the main selections for the 2013 Welsh Grand National.
They are:
HIGHLAND LODGE (7~9/1)
• 7 y-o, carrying 10.06
• 4th in the Hennessy last run
• 50% Win rate at 3m+ (incl <4L)
• Never raced at Chepstow but chase win at Cheltenham over 26f on Hvy with 11.06
• Trainer in great form
VINTAGE STAR (16/1)
• 7 y-o, carrying 10.00
• 3 wins or near-things from 5 runs at 24f+
• Made the frame both chases at 26f+
• Never raced at Chepstow but won twice on Hvy at Carlisle with 11.02+
• A son of Presenting, it is said that he should appreciate better ground but more testing going didn’t stop the most renowned son of Presenting Denman from winning a Hennessy on Soft with top-weight. Vintage Star may be no Denman but he seems perfectly at home on soft~heavy.
• Made the frame in both runs this season
• GN winning trainer (Sue Smith) also in great form
As usual I’m going to back both selections each-way and, with at least 4 paying places, I am also going to add a third from one of the Borderlines (Well Refreshed, Teaforthree and Tour Des Champs).
• Well Refreshed – a terrific stayer in the mud but, for a 3rd selection, his price is too short and I do have doubts about his liking for a course like Chepstow
• Teaforthree - I’m very tempted by T43 as the trend for WN winners or near-things to return and run well is strong. I’m sure his trainer has him fully fit and I expect him to run a decent race for a long way but the lack of a prep run is unprecedented for a WN winner or near-thing and, since he is yet to win a seasonal debut, I reckon he is limited to place potential. As such, 12/1 is just a little short for my liking.
• Always drawn to a long-shot, I shall plump for TOUR DES CHAMPS (20~25/1 with bookies, as my 3rd selection. Fits the profile of the 6y-o French-breds that have such a good strike rate in the WN in recent years. Not a high win rate and is prone to jumping errors (slower ground helps his jumping according to Sam T-D) but his staying-on 4th in the Scottish National ticks the stamina box and two solid runs at 3~3.5m at Cheltenham this season when yard was not firing (Racing Post noted "clearly has loads of stamina for a younghorse") bode well. Runs from 5lbs o/h but that isn’t prohibitive and Twiston-Davies’ yard seems to be in form once again.
If he takes to the track though he could be mustard.
If it gets shot down in flames, as it may well, I'll still be cranking up the GN model when the entries are announced at the end of Jan.
Highland Lodge 9/1 with a few (8/1 with PP)
Vintage Star still 16/1 with a few (only 11/1 with PP)
Only Paddy Power and a couple of small bookies paying 5 places e/w. Vic and Bet365 still 4 places at the moment.
Bet365, SkyBet & Paddy Power paying 5 places e/w