Even a six hour drive home couldn’t dampen yesterday’s win and performance from Oxford! Hope some of you were on? Mind you wouldn’t blame you if you wasn’t after the way my others have ran lately! Just got to wait for the rating we get now we are guessing 120 + and then see where we go from there
Even a six hour drive home couldn’t dampen yesterday’s win and performance from Oxford! Hope some of you were on? Mind you wouldn’t blame you if you wasn’t after the way my others have ran lately! Just got to wait for the rating we get now we are guessing 120 + and then see where we go from there
A nice spin (slightly fortunate 2nd) just now over Southwell's hurdles for 12 year-old Raz De Maree - a decent prep for the Welsh National. Plenty worse 25/1 chances for the Chepstow marathon than the old fella even if he only has one gear. Stayed on strongly in last year's, just failing to reel in Native River. Like many of the big staying handicaps, the race has a history of runners repeatedly making the frame if conditions suit. Just 1lb higher mark for this year's renewal (likely to be carrying a similar weight) and looked essentially as reliable and genuine as ever in the recent Munster and Cork Nationals (travelling and jumping well up front until an uncharacteristic soft fall in the former and a typically not-stopping 2nd over 28f at Cork a month ago). Plenty of rain about so, while no doubt there will be a strong run from a race debutant or two, given the always-necessary absence of misfortune, no reason to doubt that the old fella will give us a run for our money.
EDIT - he isn't guaranteed to get in at the mo (joint #31 and max field 20) but there are typically a significant number of defections prior to decs for this one
First selection to share with my fellow e/w value seekers for Saturday's Becher Chase and it's an easy one for an old softy like me, especially with the going currently Heavy, is 12 year-old PORTRAIT KING 25/1. His first taste of the fences was a highly creditable run in the 2015 GN, when falling 3 out (with the leaders, though beginning to be outpaced). In the Becher Chase 2 years ago (Soft) he was coming with a very threatening run, looking a serious contender, when the claiming jock on board managed to steer him into the back of the eventual (2L) 2nd on landing at the 2nd last and he departed softly. Highland Lodge won it that day carrying 3lbs more that PK. Now partnered by Conor O'Farrell, PK was a respectable 6th in last year's race on appreciably quicker ground (mark 135) and, missing the cut for the GN, a staying-on (7L) 3rd over the same fences in April's Topham over 21f. O'Farrell is a past master at piloting such old boys regularly to outperform their odds around the GN course (he was Swing Bill's regular pilot) - a sort of oldies-version of Paul Moloney .......(except with grateful punters) ;0) Stamina not an issue for this former Eider Chase winner, nor Soft/Heavy going (winning or near-missing twice over 28f+ on testing ground). Age no barrier in this - a 14 year-old winner in 2012, 13 y-o 2nd (1L) in 2013, a 13 y-o winner in 2014 and a 12 y-o was 5th (4L) in 2015. PK runs off a mark of 133 on Saturday (3lbs out of the handicap), carrying 10 stone. HL, who will also relish the ground, is 10/1 for the race but gives him 5lbs this time. More to come.
Stats for the Becher Chase are all over the place - except for one: In the 5 renewals of the Becher Chase since the 2012 GN, after which the most significant fence alterations were made but despite those alterations: • All 5 winners had won or been runner-up at up to 26f over the GN fences or run creditably in a GN. • Of the 16 runners placed <4L of them, 11 had run creditably over the fences previously. Of those with respectable course form, on testing going and at the weights, in my opinion, PORTRAIT KING (25/1) and HIGHLAND LODGE (10/1) hold most appeal. PK's case outlined above. HL will love the ground and will receive a stone (9lbs more than last year) from Vieux Lion Rouge (8/1), who only just reeled him in after HL idled under a zen-like ride from Henry Brooke after the elbow. Earlier in the race, Brooke had managed, yet again, to find traffic problems at the turn away from the stands. He did steer HL home the year before, however, and so these 2 veterans, with contrasting running styles, will be carrying my couple of bob each-way. Next best on the ground and at the weights: THE LAST SAMURI (ignore his GN flop last time – like Raz De Maree, he was spooked when being made to wait in that daft tunnel they now have to go through from the paddock to the course) Should be a belter of a race. Let’s hope they all come back safe and sound.
EDIT - But what about hot favourite Blacklion? To state the obvious, his GN and Charlie Hall runs make him a serious contender and worthy favourite. However, in the last 15 Becher Chases: • Only 3 favourites came home in front • 9 winners had double-digit starting prices Blaklion isn't the biggest of chasers and it's not an absolute given that he'll jump these fences as well out of probably-holding ground as he did last spring. Even if he does, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune typical of Aintree make 11/4 easy to duck.
Cheers CHG. Just love those old faithfuls around Aintree. No complaints about the winner but he won't be such a shoo in for the big one after Phil has his say. Merry Christmas to you too Chief. Next stop Chepstow.
I’ve got some annual leave to use up so I’m off to Cheltenham on Friday, any horses I should look out for? Hopefully it doesn’t get called off, all frost and snow has now disappeared up here (Gloucester).
I’ve got some annual leave to use up so I’m off to Cheltenham on Friday, any horses I should look out for? Hopefully it doesn’t get called off, all frost and snow has now disappeared up here (Gloucester).
Sorry I'm late on this but will give a quick rundown of my thoughts:
12.10 - Lalor (probably). Really tough race but is probably the most value out there of the expected front three, and at 10/3 that doesn't say much. At bigger prices then Shoal Bay e/w @ 18/1 - good thing that 3 places are paid with only 8 runners.
12.45 - Duel At Dawn @ 11/4 because he jumps better than Sizing Tennessee. If, however, ST's jumping is improved then he'll probably edge out, but that's a big if.
1.20 - Sea Wall or Raven's Tower imo, but it's a really tricky one to call.
1.55 - Song Saa or Twenty Eight Guns. Another tricky race
2.30 - Don't take my word for it, but I'd probably go for Wotzizname. It's tight between the front three.
3.05 - I love cross-country races, as you often get big prices to watch out for. I'm gonna say Tiger Roll (11/1) and Bless the Wings (14/1) each way - both come with attendant risks, but both have lots of experience.
3.40 - Jester Jet (9/1) and Anteros (11/1), probably both e/w.
As for the proper Cheltenham calls - I'm going to look at the Supreme Novices' and recommend DAMALISQUE (40/1 with William Hill). Big price that, with one good run in the UK, will shorten massively.
"As mentioned, a race thus far lacking a ‘superstar’ (if one is needed). Had a little dig through the market and found a bright shiny prospect at a price. Damalisque won a listed event on his hurdling bow at the start of September at Autueil.
He travelled strongly throughout, giving the impression he could drop back from the 2 mile 2f he was running over, before bolting clear in the style of a smart horse, putting 9 lengths between himself and his nearest rival. The owners have since come out and said that they’re ready to sell to a ‘top British or Irish owner’. "
The horse that finished third in that race went on to win (in another good race) so there's a level of franking. As mentioned, one good run in the UK will see that 40/1 evaporate into 10/1.
Damalisque has since been bought by JP McManus and sent to Eddie Harty who won the 2008 Supreme with Captain Cee Bee (went off 17/2).
Looks like a smart horse, and at 40/1 really good value.
I like Lalor in the first too. Backed it at Ascot when he lost it at the last and stable (2-1-7) has been in good form.
Talking about stables in form, or rather out of form, amazed to see what a low strike rate some of the so called big ones are having. Last 14 days - Philip Hobbs (1-5-20), Alan King (2-4-28), Tom George (2-5-25), Venetia Williams (0-2-14) and Neil Mulholland (0-6-33) as compared to someone like Dan Skelton (10-7-34). Perhaps there's a bit too much emphasis on prep races and building up for the spring big meetings at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.
As for the proper Cheltenham calls - I'm going to look at the Supreme Novices' and recommend DAMALISQUE (40/1 with William Hill). Big price that, with one good run in the UK, will shorten massively.
"As mentioned, a race thus far lacking a ‘superstar’ (if one is needed). Had a little dig through the market and found a bright shiny prospect at a price. Damalisque won a listed event on his hurdling bow at the start of September at Autueil.
He travelled strongly throughout, giving the impression he could drop back from the 2 mile 2f he was running over, before bolting clear in the style of a smart horse, putting 9 lengths between himself and his nearest rival. The owners have since come out and said that they’re ready to sell to a ‘top British or Irish owner’. "
The horse that finished third in that race went on to win (in another good race) so there's a level of franking. As mentioned, one good run in the UK will see that 40/1 evaporate into 10/1.
Damalisque has since been bought by JP McManus and sent to Eddie Harty who won the 2008 Supreme with Captain Cee Bee (went off 17/2).
Looks like a smart horse, and at 40/1 really good value.
Cheers Paddy. Bit of a short trip for me but looks interesting and, as you say, good value. Backed him this morning. All the best.
I’ve got some annual leave to use up so I’m off to Cheltenham on Friday, any horses I should look out for? Hopefully it doesn’t get called off, all frost and snow has now disappeared up here (Gloucester).
Sorry I'm late on this but will give a quick rundown of my thoughts:
12.10 - Lalor (probably). Really tough race but is probably the most value out there of the expected front three, and at 10/3 that doesn't say much. At bigger prices then Shoal Bay e/w @ 18/1 - good thing that 3 places are paid with only 8 runners.
12.45 - Duel At Dawn @ 11/4 because he jumps better than Sizing Tennessee. If, however, ST's jumping is improved then he'll probably edge out, but that's a big if.
1.20 - Sea Wall or Raven's Tower imo, but it's a really tricky one to call.
1.55 - Song Saa or Twenty Eight Guns. Another tricky race
2.30 - Don't take my word for it, but I'd probably go for Wotzizname. It's tight between the front three.
3.05 - I love cross-country races, as you often get big prices to watch out for. I'm gonna say Tiger Roll (11/1) and Bless the Wings (14/1) each way - both come with attendant risks, but both have lots of experience.
3.40 - Jester Jet (9/1) and Anteros (11/1), probably both e/w.
Cheers mate. I lost on the 1st, Sizing Tennessee got me some money in the 2nd, see how I get on for the rest! Beer is going down well though!
PM - Alvarado running in the 2.10 Doncaster. Will no doubt doing his best work late.
LOL ....that old monkey. 13 chases since he last won - placed 6 times in those. What are you gonna do ?!? He'd still be closing fast but just held if it were a 6 miler :0)
Comments
I’m walking around Greenwich so missed the race - only knew it had won when I got a text from smiffyboy!
Was there yesterday and what a terrific finish we witnessed.
Oxford Blu.
Hope some of you were on? Mind you wouldn’t blame you if you wasn’t after the way my others have ran lately!
Just got to wait for the rating we get now we are guessing 120 + and then see where we go from there
Plenty worse 25/1 chances for the Chepstow marathon than the old fella even if he only has one gear.
Stayed on strongly in last year's, just failing to reel in Native River. Like many of the big staying handicaps, the race has a history of runners repeatedly making the frame if conditions suit.
Just 1lb higher mark for this year's renewal (likely to be carrying a similar weight) and looked essentially as reliable and genuine as ever in the recent Munster and Cork Nationals (travelling and jumping well up front until an uncharacteristic soft fall in the former and a typically not-stopping 2nd over 28f at Cork a month ago).
Plenty of rain about so, while no doubt there will be a strong run from a race debutant or two, given the always-necessary absence of misfortune, no reason to doubt that the old fella will give us a run for our money.
EDIT - he isn't guaranteed to get in at the mo (joint #31 and max field 20) but there are typically a significant number of defections prior to decs for this one
His first taste of the fences was a highly creditable run in the 2015 GN, when falling 3 out (with the leaders, though beginning to be outpaced).
In the Becher Chase 2 years ago (Soft) he was coming with a very threatening run, looking a serious contender, when the claiming jock on board managed to steer him into the back of the eventual (2L) 2nd on landing at the 2nd last and he departed softly. Highland Lodge won it that day carrying 3lbs more that PK.
Now partnered by Conor O'Farrell, PK was a respectable 6th in last year's race on appreciably quicker ground (mark 135) and, missing the cut for the GN, a staying-on (7L) 3rd over the same fences in April's Topham over 21f. O'Farrell is a past master at piloting such old boys regularly to outperform their odds around the GN course (he was Swing Bill's regular pilot) - a sort of oldies-version of Paul Moloney .......(except with grateful punters) ;0)
Stamina not an issue for this former Eider Chase winner, nor Soft/Heavy going (winning or near-missing twice over 28f+ on testing ground).
Age no barrier in this - a 14 year-old winner in 2012, 13 y-o 2nd (1L) in 2013, a 13 y-o winner in 2014 and a 12 y-o was 5th (4L) in 2015.
PK runs off a mark of 133 on Saturday (3lbs out of the handicap), carrying 10 stone. HL, who will also relish the ground, is 10/1 for the race but gives him 5lbs this time.
More to come.
In the 5 renewals of the Becher Chase since the 2012 GN, after which the most significant fence alterations were made but despite those alterations:
• All 5 winners had won or been runner-up at up to 26f over the GN fences or run creditably in a GN.
• Of the 16 runners placed <4L of them, 11 had run creditably over the fences previously.
Of those with respectable course form, on testing going and at the weights, in my opinion, PORTRAIT KING (25/1) and HIGHLAND LODGE (10/1) hold most appeal.
PK's case outlined above. HL will love the ground and will receive a stone (9lbs more than last year) from Vieux Lion Rouge (8/1), who only just reeled him in after HL idled under a zen-like ride from Henry Brooke after the elbow. Earlier in the race, Brooke had managed, yet again, to find traffic problems at the turn away from the stands.
He did steer HL home the year before, however, and so these 2 veterans, with contrasting running styles, will be carrying my couple of bob each-way.
Next best on the ground and at the weights: THE LAST SAMURI (ignore his GN flop last time – like Raz De Maree, he was spooked when being made to wait in that daft tunnel they now have to go through from the paddock to the course)
Should be a belter of a race. Let’s hope they all come back safe and sound.
EDIT - But what about hot favourite Blacklion? To state the obvious, his GN and Charlie Hall runs make him a serious contender and worthy favourite.
However, in the last 15 Becher Chases:
• Only 3 favourites came home in front
• 9 winners had double-digit starting prices
Blaklion isn't the biggest of chasers and it's not an absolute given that he'll jump these fences as well out of probably-holding ground as he did last spring. Even if he does, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune typical of Aintree make 11/4 easy to duck.
No complaints about the winner but he won't be such a shoo in for the big one after Phil has his say.
Merry Christmas to you too Chief.
Next stop Chepstow.
12.10 - Lalor (probably). Really tough race but is probably the most value out there of the expected front three, and at 10/3 that doesn't say much. At bigger prices then Shoal Bay e/w @ 18/1 - good thing that 3 places are paid with only 8 runners.
12.45 - Duel At Dawn @ 11/4 because he jumps better than Sizing Tennessee. If, however, ST's jumping is improved then he'll probably edge out, but that's a big if.
1.20 - Sea Wall or Raven's Tower imo, but it's a really tricky one to call.
1.55 - Song Saa or Twenty Eight Guns. Another tricky race
2.30 - Don't take my word for it, but I'd probably go for Wotzizname. It's tight between the front three.
3.05 - I love cross-country races, as you often get big prices to watch out for. I'm gonna say Tiger Roll (11/1) and Bless the Wings (14/1) each way - both come with attendant risks, but both have lots of experience.
3.40 - Jester Jet (9/1) and Anteros (11/1), probably both e/w.
To quote from theracingforum:
"As mentioned, a race thus far lacking a ‘superstar’ (if one is needed). Had a little dig through the market and found a bright shiny prospect at a price. Damalisque won a listed event on his hurdling bow at the start of September at Autueil.
He travelled strongly throughout, giving the impression he could drop back from the 2 mile 2f he was running over, before bolting clear in the style of a smart horse, putting 9 lengths between himself and his nearest rival. The owners have since come out and said that they’re ready to sell to a ‘top British or Irish owner’. "
The win over hurdles as mentioned is here:
The horse that finished third in that race went on to win (in another good race) so there's a level of franking. As mentioned, one good run in the UK will see that 40/1 evaporate into 10/1.
Damalisque has since been bought by JP McManus and sent to Eddie Harty who won the 2008 Supreme with Captain Cee Bee (went off 17/2).
Looks like a smart horse, and at 40/1 really good value.
Talking about stables in form, or rather out of form, amazed to see what a low strike rate some of the so called big ones are having. Last 14 days - Philip Hobbs (1-5-20), Alan King (2-4-28), Tom George (2-5-25), Venetia Williams (0-2-14) and Neil Mulholland (0-6-33) as compared to someone like Dan Skelton (10-7-34). Perhaps there's a bit too much emphasis on prep races and building up for the spring big meetings at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.
All the best.