The ironic thing about all this is the finals were expanded to 24 teams to try and get a few more of the smaller nations qualifying, but as its turned out a number of the more established nations have gone to pieces in front of the metaphorical open goal and we've ended up with bloody loads of minnows there.
As it stands, none of the 8 teams in the playoffs look out of place for that stage (4 of them qualified for Euro 2012, another one for WC 2014), while Albania and Northern Ireland have qualified automatically.
Wales, N. Ireland, Albania and Iceland - none would normally be expected to qualify, albeit Iceland have something of a golden generation right now and Wales have the Bale factor, but all are already looking for cheap flights for advanced bookings.
Meanwhile, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Croatia & Serbia all need to come through a play-off or have missed out even on that. Greece, Rep of Ireland and maybe Ukraine are other teams that have often qualified for major tournaments in the last 10 to 20 years but may not be there this time. Greece in particular have had a horrible campaign.
"The draw procedures for the UEFA EURO 2016 play-offs and final tournament were approved at the UEFA Executive Committee in Prague, Czech Republic.
The nine group winners, the nine group runners-up and the best third-placed side will qualify directly for the final tournament at the conclusion of the European Qualifiers on 13 October.
The eight remaining third-placed teams will contest play-offs to determine the last four qualifiers for the finals in France.
Those eight teams will be divided into two groups of seeded and non-seeded teams, based on the UEFA national team coefficient rankings (see the latest here). Each fixture will see a seeded team play against a non-seeded team, with the first team drawn to play the first leg at home."
"Final tournament draw – Paris, 12 December 2015, 18.00CET There will be four pots for the draw: Pot 1: five teams to include Spain, as the reigning European champions, if they qualify Pots 2, 3 and 4: six teams
France are not included in the pots as they are automatically assigned as team A1.
The teams will be drawn into six groups of four teams each (Groups A to F), with the top two in each plus the four best third-placed sides to advance to the knockout phase."
Why aren't Norway? They currently have 20 points. Or am I being stupid?
Results against teams finishing in 6th don't count towards the total as Group I only has 5 teams and so that would put 3rd place in Group I at a disadvantage.
Sixth placed team in Norway's group are Malta. Norway got 6 of their 20 points against Malta.
The bizarre thing about Group A is that Kazahkstan started tonight as the bottom team of the group. This left Turkey as the 8th-best sixth-placed team.
Kazahkstan are now beating Latvia, meaning they leapfrog them and Latvia become the sixth placed side.
Turkey took 6 points from the Kazahks but only 2 from Latvia.
All of a sudden, Turkey gain four points after swapping Kazakhstan for Latvia as well as a potential three from Iceland.
Norway who had second spot in their group (and were beating Italy) look set to drop into the Play-Offs... they were only a point or two ahead of Croatia who'll take their spot (as they're beating Malta)
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At least Scotland will be available if they need to arrange a friendly next June!
Most recent update
England definitely top seeds
Wales and Northern Ireland likely to both be 4th seeds. So would ROI if they qualify.
Meanwhile, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Croatia & Serbia all need to come through a play-off or have missed out even on that. Greece, Rep of Ireland and maybe Ukraine are other teams that have often qualified for major tournaments in the last 10 to 20 years but may not be there this time. Greece in particular have had a horrible campaign.
The nine group winners, the nine group runners-up and the best third-placed side will qualify directly for the final tournament at the conclusion of the European Qualifiers on 13 October.
The eight remaining third-placed teams will contest play-offs to determine the last four qualifiers for the finals in France.
Those eight teams will be divided into two groups of seeded and non-seeded teams, based on the UEFA national team coefficient rankings (see the latest here). Each fixture will see a seeded team play against a non-seeded team, with the first team drawn to play the first leg at home."
"Final tournament draw – Paris, 12 December 2015, 18.00CET
There will be four pots for the draw:
Pot 1: five teams to include Spain, as the reigning European champions, if they qualify
Pots 2, 3 and 4: six teams
France are not included in the pots as they are automatically assigned as team A1.
The teams will be drawn into six groups of four teams each (Groups A to F), with the top two in each plus the four best third-placed sides to advance to the knockout phase."
http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/news/newsid=2262387.html
1 Belgium
2 Wales
3 Bosnia (play-offs)
as it stands in Group B.
Means that if Turkey find a winner against Iceland, the Turks go through as best 3rd place and Hungary drop into play-offs at their expense.
Turkey will be if they beat Iceland.
But this really is shocking from the Dutch. Can you imagine the tabloid meltdown if England had failed so miserably in this qualifying stage?
Sixth placed team in Norway's group are Malta. Norway got 6 of their 20 points against Malta.
That reduces Norway's total to 14 points.
Hungary got 1 point against Greece
Norway got 6 points against Malta
ROI got 6 points against Gibraltar
Kazahkstan are now beating Latvia, meaning they leapfrog them and Latvia become the sixth placed side.
Turkey took 6 points from the Kazahks but only 2 from Latvia.
All of a sudden, Turkey gain four points after swapping Kazakhstan for Latvia as well as a potential three from Iceland.
They could jump from 8th all the way up to 1st.
But as Turkey have pipped Hungary to the automatic qualification, Hungary take Denmark's seed for the play-offs.