We can all be guilty of dictating a narrative fallacy at times and some have painted me as a "mindless optimist" as I painted a picture of the business transformation before and during the summer activities, but it appears my narrative had a basis in reality?!
To me right now, the only thing that matters is the team selection, performance and result on Saturday, followed by Millwall at home. We need to recognise that Staprix are running CAFC because of the FAPL prize at the end. No room and no time for mediocrity. And that we are in the critical central third of the season where wins are required.
G21, Olympic stadium, FAPL... It's all just noise...vapid rhetoric emanating from keyboards... No structure, no end goal and a complete waste of energy as it fails to embrace the real challenge and fails to address the possible Cafc futures for say 2018.
I believe the FAPL might make a play for the Championship to secure "their" feeder league
I also believe we are off to the play-offs again sooner or later because it can be done and CAFC is run by people with a can do mentality. Precise, understated, effective and lucky
Promotion to the FAPL is where the value is and CAFC may well be sold after that? Or perhaps FAPL media revenue goes to Staprix?
Basically if you're worth 500M and you have the ability to acquire decent players and hire (and fire) coaches then securing 75 points in the Championship is not that big an ask! In less than 12 months Cafc has travelled at least half the journey to be a real challenger. On Saturday we have a nearly fit squad so let's see.
The big question is whether we want to be at the top table or object to the structure etc. I wonder if anyone will stop to ask what the fans think?
We are owned by a multi-millionaire. We can't afford to man the ticket office on Thursday afternoons - that's all you need to know.
#youdothemaths
Are the few hours missing on the ticket sales a cost cutting exercise then ? What cost has been saved? @Valiantphil
I believe the announcement says that staff can now be redeployed to other duties on what is the quietest sale period of the week - or something similar.
Given that the ticket office window is about 10 feet away from the desks in the ticket office, one wonders what those four or five people are now doing on a Thursday afternoon that they can't occasionally answer the phone or attend to window sales on the quietest sale period of the week.
My assumption (could be wrong) is that they are no longer sitting there on Thursday afternoons, hence cost cutting.
So you are saying the closure of the ticket office for a few hours cuts costs because the people are not actually working those hours and have had their contracts changed.
I am sure someone very important will be able to confirm that you are either truly Sherlock-like or a desperate cynic.
And finally anyone saying our club is hard to call hasn't done their research! Successive boards have cut player budgets and stated their commitment to FFP. The network moves a fair few players around and to have CAFC restrained from signing players (and extending contracts) for the sake of a small equity injection doesn't make sense. I don't think the CEO and head coach would be talking about acquiring quality players in January if there was any chance of an embargo.
This is no different, however, from saying that Charlton's owners have been unwilling to cover significant losses (although in practice the previous lot had to do so). As MF says, it makes little practical difference to RD whether any money he puts in is a loan or equity so we will be millions under the cap - what he is willing to invest within the cap is the question.
True.
The issue here is that RDs plan is heavily reliant on FFP restricting others club over spending and so not blowing us out the water.
With FFP we will still have a smaller budget but the gap will have closed. The hope then is that the academy, good coaching and European scouting can then bridge the gap.
That will be a difficult enough trick to pull off even under current FFP rules. If the required investment needed to compete increases because of new FFP rules RD may not be willing to up his investment in CAFC to match. It maybe that he is but right now we don't know hence why this is such an important vote for us.
So you are saying the closure of the ticket office for a few hours cuts costs because the people are not actually working those hours and have had their contracts changed.
I am sure someone very important will be able to confirm that you are either truly Sherlock-like or a desperate cynic.
I estimate that just appearing in the play-offs adds 25% of the FAPL monies to the enterprise value of Cafc. Yes Staprix buy us for £14m and within 18 months might have transformed us into a club worth £40-50m.
Really ?? Unless you are saying for the 2 to 3 week period whilst we are in the play-offs we're worth that , till we either lose and then we are worth what we would have been if we'd finished 7th-21st or go up and worth more
I estimate that just appearing in the play-offs adds 25% of the FAPL monies to the enterprise value of Cafc. Yes Staprix buy us for £14m and within 18 months might have transformed us into a club worth £40-50m.
Really ?? Unless you are saying for the 2 to 3 week period whilst we are in the play-offs we're worth that , till we either lose and then we are worth what we would have been if we'd finished 7th-21st or go up and worth more
Your probabilities have value! It is a valid business valuation technique to take future cash flow of a project (promotion) and multiply by the probability of success.
I think of it like a house with planning permission for an extension
Therefore there is a valid business case to further improve the squad as CAFC will be a more valuable club if it becomes a permanent fixture in the top ten.
The value only drops to nothing if we have zero chance of promotion like last season. The previous owners were looking for £40m after we finished 9th and I believe they might have achieved £30m if they had kept CAFC in the top half during the sale process. In the end they received £10m + a £4M "staying up bonus"
Overall I am stating that the fans and Staprix interests are 100% aligned as long as Staprix keep acquiring players and pushing up the table. Let's see what the club say about the decision as that will be a good indication of whether they still plan to "acquire one or two quality players in January "
Why dont the PL scrap parachute payments (who gets hurt? no one) and give all that money each year to building 3G pitches around the country. In most rural counties the chance for kids to play football more or less dries up/sinks down from this month onwards unless they have parents who have the time and money to transport them to floodlit pitches in the cities. Farcical in a country which claims to have the best league in the world.
Why dont the PL scrap parachute payments (who gets hurt? no one) and give all that money each year to building 3G pitches around the country. In most rural counties the chance for kids to play football more or less dries up/sinks down from this month onwards unless they have parents who have the time and money to transport them to floodlit pitches in the cities. Farcical in a country which claims to have the best league in the world.
Because
1. The danger of bankruptcy from relegation would be even more acute 2. In the current setup the FA would say it is their job to distribute such money and there would be a turf war
As I keep trying to explain to seriously red, in Germany you could make such decisions because the German FA already makes them. It is the German FA that has decided that there will be a more even spread of TV monies across Bundesliga 1 and 2 (and now 3). It is the German FA that has already dictated years ago that more money must be spent on academies ( mandatory for Bundesliga membership), qualified coaching, and doubtless the facilities you mention. The result of this decision is things like Brazil - Germany 1-7, Roma - Bayern 1-7, full houses in Bundesliga 1 (currently more than half are selling 98% capacity, plus rising attendances in Bundesliga 2, currently averaging over 18,000.
Nothing on earth will make the FAPL on its own follow that course of action. Roman Abramovic couldn't give a flying one about kids up and down the country having decent facilities. The FAPL needs to be abolished as a separate entity.
It could be one of two options for Roland, either slightly speed up the plan with the view of already being in the Premier League before the rules change or selling up, which is always a worry, as whatever you think of the goings on in the last year, he has not destroyed the clubs soul.
Who knows if the next owner could be the type who wishes to move us from the Valley or something else terrible, so im hoping we are not risking the owner lottery again any time soon.
This piece from the Bournemouth Daily Echo speaks volumes about the impact of the new FFP rules.
CHERRIES chairman Jeff Mostyn said he felt “common sense has prevailed” after Football League clubs yesterday agreed to amend financial fair play rules.
Speaking on behalf of Cherries, Mostyn told the Daily Echo: “We are delighted with the outcome of the vote. A great deal of hard work has gone into this matter over the past few months and this is a positive result for our football club and the whole of the Football League.
“It will mean we can continue to invest in the club and retain the current status quo. Had the vote been negative, it would have severely affected our ability to invest in the club going forward under the current FFP rules.
“I would like to reassure our supporters that the club will continue to invest wisely while keeping to the FFP regulations.”
Mostyn also said he was “confident” Cherries had complied with financial fair play regulations this year."
Loosely translated, Mostyn said the following,
"We've won. Our wealthy owner will now be able continue to fund significant losses, enabling the club to progress. I can reassure you that he will continue to do that.
We'd have been in deep shit had common sense prevailed because we'd been ignoring the rules and had they been enforced we'd have had to cut our budget significantly.
We've had another stroke of luck. Having lost £15m in the year to end April 2013 we were destined to fail FFP this December and face sanctions in January. However, Southampton, a club which does things properly, unlike us, sold Adam Lallana to Liverpool and we bagged a £5m windfall which, along with some clever accounting, has bailed us out.
I'm feeling very smug."
What Roland Duchatelet will do now is hard to say, but we won't be able to compete with Bournemouth without a change in strategy.
Given Duchatelet's vast personal fortune - around £320m and counting - I view the change of FFP rules to allow increased debt as a splendid opportunity for him to invest in top-rate players bought from outside his 'network'.
Given Duchatelet's vast personal fortune - around £320m and counting - I view the change of FFP rules to allow increased debt as a splendid opportunity for him to invest in top-rate players bought from outside his 'network'.
The idea as some understand it was to operate within FFP by utilising the network and thereby through that efficiency, that others may not be able to
Given Duchatelet's vast personal fortune - around £320m and counting - I view the change of FFP rules to allow increased debt as a splendid opportunity for him to invest in top-rate players bought from outside his 'network'.
The idea as some understand it was to operate within FFP by utilising the network and thereby through that efficiency, that others may not be able to
We can still do that. And we can now spend more on players' transfer fees and wages, which gives us an advantage over those clubs that can't afford to do so.
FFP was heading towards a 'break even' point which is when the Network would we assume really kick in, the flood gates are now well and truly opened I would suggest - I do get your point however.
Part of the problem generally which this was addressing was that the real cost of football was far more than fans/clubs could actually afford, not a sustainable approach by any means, and arguably a distortion of the Premier League, with the huge jump in incomes between the two divisions.
So put limits on debt that eventually reduce to zero, and clubs have to live within their means.
It wouldn't be so bad if this had simply allowed more equity to be put in but that does not appear to be the case.
Worrying that so far I have not even seen any coverage of this decision in the Guardian which has been pretty hot on FFP so far. Anyone seeing any comment on it elsewhere apart from the early BBC report?
Fans could stop this nonsense if they were loud and united in protest. But how do you develop a loud and united group when English fans are so easily divided by money? Right now Brighton fans will be livid, because their owners are. But along the coast, Bournemouth fans? They've been told to be happy, as @Mundell Fleming illustrates above. The FSF (and potentially Supporters Direct if both clubs have Trusts) have to represent both sets of fans.
like I said its not so bad that crazy owners want to throw their money into football, what is bad is that they do it as debt cause the long term instability - I think that is the angle
Given Duchatelet's vast personal fortune - around £320m and counting - I view the change of FFP rules to allow increased debt as a splendid opportunity for him to invest in top-rate players bought from outside his 'network'.
The idea as some understand it was to operate within FFP by utilising the network and thereby through that efficiency, that others may not be able to
We can still do that. And we can now spend more on players' transfer fees and wages, which gives us an advantage over those clubs that can't afford to do so.
We can, but I fear you are missing the point. The point is that based on all the evidence we have, we won't. Roland Duchatelet has made that very clear.
Katrien Meire has also made it very clear that we have one of the smaller playing budgets in the Championship. Duchatelet's plan appears to have been to succeed despite this through a focus on youth development and insightful recruitment from Europe.
Even assuming that at the right time further investment in the playing squad might have been forthcoming, this strategy was always going to require very significant level of skill, in player recruitment, development and coaching, as well as a huge slice of luck, if it was to succeed. The bar is now likely to be even higher as clubs such as Bournemouth run budgets significantly larger than ours.
What Roland Duchatelet might be able to do isn't what matters. It's what he'll actually do that counts.
PS A question. What's the difference between Tony Jimenez and Roland Duchatelet? Jimenez was willing to spend money, but not able. Duchatelet is able, but not willing.
We are in a bind. I have little doubt FFP was part of the Duchatelet algorithm. We are cutting costs anyway. The Sparrows Lane initiative seems to have died a death. If we don't go up we are in danger of becoming a Crewe or Auxerre surviving on player churn, Peeters is only here for one year and the next person may be more Les Reed than Alex Ferguson. I will revert to results mode. If Roland puts a team out palpably wanting to win and get points, which is what we have at the moment, then that may be the best way to judge things.
it was always going to mean trying to compete with the top however many clubs that are recipients of parachute money (although some of them are in serious do do), but there are of course those willing to splash the cash outside that group
The vote went 18 - 6 between the Championship clubs. According to the FLP one club official described that with the Premier League threatening to cut funding " as a gun to the head". Existing championship clubs receive only £2.3m per season from the Premier League.
Six sides arrived on blocking the changes - Derby, Rotherham, Huddersfield, Ipswich, Blackpool and Charlton.
With a 75 per cent majority required it was expected that Brighton would join the other 6 clubs, but changed their minds at the 11th hour.
So Sheffield Wednesday, Millwall and Brentford all voted for the changes... Wednesday so Mandaric can sell to a bigger fool... Millwall need the cash and Brentford so they can can spend more money getting not very far. Only one place to sort this lot out and that's on the pitch! Brighton are just nuts because the rules as they were should have given them an advantage over time due to the size of their gates. Expect some very big transfers in the Championship next summer as loss limits double and they bring in a rolling average system. The likes of Forest or Blackburn are out of the January window but they may well spend very big in the summer. The talent pool is the same but they've just added £100m+ to the funds available for fees and wages so I expect we will get some very high offers for Vetokele and Gudmundsson. M.Duchatelet will have raised our league position significantly AND brought break even sustainability back to our club in just 18 months, either by selling stars or pushing on for a play-off chance. What are the chances that, after our win yesterday, they choose to push on this January and stretch for a top six finish? It's going to get harder next season so why not?
The vote went 18 - 6 between the Championship clubs. According to the FLP one club official described that with the Premier League threatening to cut funding " as a gun to the head". Existing championship clubs receive only £2.3m per season from the Premier League.
Six sides arrived on blocking the changes - Derby, Rotherham, Huddersfield, Ipswich, Blackpool and Charlton.
With a 75 per cent majority required it was expected that Brighton would join the other 6 clubs, but changed their minds at the 11th hour.
A shameful day for English football. A shame that we have allowed this monster to continue to exist, that can dictate to the clubs in the leagues below. A shame that so many Championship clubs, especially Brighton, caved in. A shame that so far the fans didn't raise their voices in the way German and Scandinavian fans do, which might have given some of those craven clubs at least some backbone.
My Brighton supporting mate is rightfully ashamed at his club over this, we only chatted last night about being proud of our clubs trying to stand up for what is the correct thing to do.
My Brighton supporting mate is rightfully ashamed at his club over this, we only chatted last night about being proud of our clubs trying to stand up for what is the correct thing to do.
He feels let down by his club.
I was wondering about the Brighton fans. Could you perhaps ask him if he knows what their Trust's position is on the issue? If there are enough Trusts capable of independent thought, regardless of what their clubs decide, they are also capable of building a popular demand for a more sustainable long term approach, via politicians as appropriate.
Surely the time to analyse positions and lobby other club trusts was over the summer? Last May proposals to increase limits and introduce a three year rolling average failed to secure the 18 votes required to secure a 75% majority. Since that decision, three small sustainable clubs were relegated to be replaced with "yes" votes from Wolves and Brentford. The sustainability camp only needed seven votes to hold the status quo and has been asleep at the wheel! Castrust has traction with Richard Murray - he was at the agm - an opportunity has been missed and the rules of the game have been changed...for next season not this. Meanwhile CAFC is becoming more and more sustainable each and every month but that's for another thread or even a full on article?
Comments
To me right now, the only thing that matters is the team selection, performance and result on Saturday, followed by Millwall at home. We need to recognise that Staprix are running CAFC because of the FAPL prize at the end. No room and no time for mediocrity. And that we are in the critical central third of the season where wins are required.
G21, Olympic stadium, FAPL... It's all just noise...vapid rhetoric emanating from keyboards... No structure, no end goal and a complete waste of energy as it fails to embrace the real challenge and fails to address the possible Cafc futures for say 2018.
I believe the FAPL might make a play for the Championship to secure "their" feeder league
I also believe we are off to the play-offs again sooner or later because it can be done and CAFC is run by people with a can do mentality. Precise, understated, effective and lucky
Promotion to the FAPL is where the value is and CAFC may well be sold after that? Or perhaps FAPL media revenue goes to Staprix?
Basically if you're worth 500M and you have the ability to acquire decent players and hire (and fire) coaches then securing 75 points in the Championship is not that big an ask! In less than 12 months Cafc has travelled at least half the journey to be a real challenger. On Saturday we have a nearly fit squad so let's see.
The big question is whether we want to be at the top table or object to the structure etc. I wonder if anyone will stop to ask what the fans think?
I feel sick about this.
I despair of how football is run in this country.
Given that the ticket office window is about 10 feet away from the desks in the ticket office, one wonders what those four or five people are now doing on a Thursday afternoon that they can't occasionally answer the phone or attend to window sales on the quietest sale period of the week.
My assumption (could be wrong) is that they are no longer sitting there on Thursday afternoons, hence cost cutting.
@PL54
I am sure someone very important will be able to confirm that you are either truly Sherlock-like or a desperate cynic.
Unless you are saying for the 2 to 3 week period whilst we are in the play-offs we're worth that , till we either lose and then we are worth what we would have been if we'd finished 7th-21st or go up and worth more
It is a valid business valuation technique to take future cash flow of a project (promotion) and multiply by the probability of success.
I think of it like a house with planning permission for an extension
Therefore there is a valid business case to further improve the squad as CAFC will be a more valuable club if it becomes a permanent fixture in the top ten.
The value only drops to nothing if we have zero chance of promotion like last season. The previous owners were looking for £40m after we finished 9th and I believe they might have achieved £30m if they had kept CAFC in the top half during the sale process. In the end they received £10m + a £4M "staying up bonus"
Overall I am stating that the fans and Staprix interests are 100% aligned as long as Staprix keep acquiring players and pushing up the table. Let's see what the club say about the decision as that will be a good indication of whether they still plan to "acquire one or two quality players in January "
In most rural counties the chance for kids to play football more or less dries up/sinks down from this month onwards unless they have parents who have the time and money to transport them to floodlit pitches in the cities.
Farcical in a country which claims to have the best league in the world.
1. The danger of bankruptcy from relegation would be even more acute
2. In the current setup the FA would say it is their job to distribute such money and there would be a turf war
As I keep trying to explain to seriously red, in Germany you could make such decisions because the German FA already makes them. It is the German FA that has decided that there will be a more even spread of TV monies across Bundesliga 1 and 2 (and now 3). It is the German FA that has already dictated years ago that more money must be spent on academies ( mandatory for Bundesliga membership), qualified coaching, and doubtless the facilities you mention. The result of this decision is things like Brazil - Germany 1-7, Roma - Bayern 1-7, full houses in Bundesliga 1 (currently more than half are selling 98% capacity, plus rising attendances in Bundesliga 2, currently averaging over 18,000.
Nothing on earth will make the FAPL on its own follow that course of action. Roman Abramovic couldn't give a flying one about kids up and down the country having decent facilities. The FAPL needs to be abolished as a separate entity.
Who knows if the next owner could be the type who wishes to move us from the Valley or something else terrible, so im hoping we are not risking the owner lottery again any time soon.
CHERRIES chairman Jeff Mostyn said he felt “common sense has prevailed” after Football League clubs yesterday agreed to amend financial fair play rules.
Speaking on behalf of Cherries, Mostyn told the Daily Echo: “We are delighted with the outcome of the vote. A great deal of hard work has gone into this matter over the past few months and this is a positive result for our football club and the whole of the Football League.
“It will mean we can continue to invest in the club and retain the current status quo. Had the vote been negative, it would have severely affected our ability to invest in the club going forward under the current FFP rules.
“I would like to reassure our supporters that the club will continue to invest wisely while keeping to the FFP regulations.”
Mostyn also said he was “confident” Cherries had complied with financial fair play regulations this year."
Loosely translated, Mostyn said the following,
"We've won. Our wealthy owner will now be able continue to fund significant losses, enabling the club to progress. I can reassure you that he will continue to do that.
We'd have been in deep shit had common sense prevailed because we'd been ignoring the rules and had they been enforced we'd have had to cut our budget significantly.
We've had another stroke of luck. Having lost £15m in the year to end April 2013 we were destined to fail FFP this December and face sanctions in January. However, Southampton, a club which does things properly, unlike us, sold Adam Lallana to Liverpool and we bagged a £5m windfall which, along with some clever accounting, has bailed us out.
I'm feeling very smug."
What Roland Duchatelet will do now is hard to say, but we won't be able to compete with Bournemouth without a change in strategy.
Part of the problem generally which this was addressing was that the real cost of football was far more than fans/clubs could actually afford, not a sustainable approach by any means, and arguably a distortion of the Premier League, with the huge jump in incomes between the two divisions.
So put limits on debt that eventually reduce to zero, and clubs have to live within their means.
It wouldn't be so bad if this had simply allowed more equity to be put in but that does not appear to be the case.
Fans could stop this nonsense if they were loud and united in protest. But how do you develop a loud and united group when English fans are so easily divided by money? Right now Brighton fans will be livid, because their owners are. But along the coast, Bournemouth fans? They've been told to be happy, as @Mundell Fleming illustrates above. The FSF (and potentially Supporters Direct if both clubs have Trusts) have to represent both sets of fans.
Feel a bit crushed by this right now.
Katrien Meire has also made it very clear that we have one of the smaller playing budgets in the Championship. Duchatelet's plan appears to have been to succeed despite this through a focus on youth development and insightful recruitment from Europe.
Even assuming that at the right time further investment in the playing squad might have been forthcoming, this strategy was always going to require very significant level of skill, in player recruitment, development and coaching, as well as a huge slice of luck, if it was to succeed. The bar is now likely to be even higher as clubs such as Bournemouth run budgets significantly larger than ours.
What Roland Duchatelet might be able to do isn't what matters. It's what he'll actually do that counts.
PS A question. What's the difference between Tony Jimenez and Roland Duchatelet? Jimenez was willing to spend money, but not able. Duchatelet is able, but not willing.
Peeters is only here for one year and the next person may be more Les Reed than Alex Ferguson.
I will revert to results mode. If Roland puts a team out palpably wanting to win and get points, which is what we have at the moment, then that may be the best way to judge things.
Six sides arrived on blocking the changes - Derby, Rotherham, Huddersfield, Ipswich, Blackpool and Charlton.
With a 75 per cent majority required it was expected that Brighton would join the other 6 clubs, but changed their minds at the 11th hour.
Wednesday so Mandaric can sell to a bigger fool... Millwall need the cash and Brentford so they can can spend more money getting not very far.
Only one place to sort this lot out and that's on the pitch!
Brighton are just nuts because the rules as they were should have given them an advantage over time due to the size of their gates.
Expect some very big transfers in the Championship next summer as loss limits double and they bring in a rolling average system. The likes of Forest or Blackburn are out of the January window but they may well spend very big in the summer. The talent pool is the same but they've just added £100m+ to the funds available for fees and wages so I expect we will get some very high offers for Vetokele and Gudmundsson.
M.Duchatelet will have raised our league position significantly AND brought break even sustainability back to our club in just 18 months, either by selling stars or pushing on for a play-off chance.
What are the chances that, after our win yesterday, they choose to push on this January and stretch for a top six finish? It's going to get harder next season so why not?
He feels let down by his club.
The sustainability camp only needed seven votes to hold the status quo and has been asleep at the wheel!
Castrust has traction with Richard Murray - he was at the agm - an opportunity has been missed and the rules of the game have been changed...for next season not this.
Meanwhile CAFC is becoming more and more sustainable each and every month but that's for another thread or even a full on article?