1.30pm tomorrow sees the first race of the season over the GN fences.
The Becher Chase has, not surprisingly, thrown up clues for the big one over the years and tomorrow's 25 strong field has some interesting types. For me, it's a race to watch rather than have a serious play in (no stat-model to look to) but, as with Swing Bill last year, I can't resist a small interest in an old buddy.
OSCAR TIME at 25/1 (5 places) seems to me to be excellent each way value for a horse that typically comes to life over the GN fences. He handles tomorrow's soft ground (close 2nd in the 2010 Irish National on heavy) and will run off an OR 9lbs lower than when a close 2nd in the 2011 GN and 4th in the 2013 GN (a 66/1 shot that year, as his season's form had been truly dismal). A year off was followed by 2 wins in hunter chases in May before unseating late-on when moving into contention on testing ground at Cheltenham recently.
He is 13 years old but that has never stopped other Aintree stalwarts in this race: Hello Bud won the 2012 Becher Chase as a 14 year old in his last race before retirement (he'd also won it as a 12 year old) and, last year, Baby Run was a 13 y-o runner up by a length, with 12 year old Swing Bill making the e/w places.
More of the same from the old fella tomorrow would do nicely.
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Comments
Skybet now lengthened him to 33s. He seems to be on the drift; might see 40s or better before the off. Lovely jubbly.
Hopefully that won't be the fate of any of those brave beasts that are forced to jump some of those horrendous fences.
Think you can guess my stance on this subject, guys.
( Dons tin drawers & gets behind the sofa)
As it's a 25 runner race, I've decided to add a second to the slip this morning.
I'd imagine northstandsteve will be on him again today and, having mulled it over, I've backed last year's winner CHANCE DU ROY at 12/1 each way (5 places); not screaming value maybe but good claims to go well.
He runs off a handicap mark 6lbs higher than last year (also soft ground) but is better treated than 3-length 3rd Mr Moonshine who re-opposes off a 13lb higher rating. Last year's 4th, Ballybough Gorta is weighted to close the gap and is tempting at 40/1 but his most recent form, off a similar mark, is moderate.
CdR was a grand 6th in the big one (his mark today is 2lbs lower) and a close runner-up in the 2012 Topham when carrying 11-07 over the same fences (7lbs lower OR today).
No run since the GN but he took this first time out last season (also won on seasonal bow in 2011).
No horse has won back-to-back Becher Chases in its 22 year history but both Hello Bud and Into The Red won it twice, each doing so two years apart, though (ominously) tipping up in the intervening year. However, 5 Becher Chase winners have made the frame the following year (Young Hustler, Samlee, Amberleigh House, Ardent Scout and Mr Pointment).
What tips the scales for me is that the Hobbs yard is flying (21 of last 26 runners have made the frame, including 6 winners), though it has to be said this is a highly competitive renewal.
Could have retired :-(
Just won me £420. I wasn't going to bet at first as have no money at all at the moment. I just thought sod it, why not.
Absolutely brilliant, thanks so much fella.
People will now be getting Christmas presents after all.
Same time next Satutday?
Thanks Peanuts - top tipping as always.
Oscar whiskey
Oscar to score for chelsea
CHEERS!