The fact is he has to rule it out because it's an extremely likely possibility and despite what he says now, the numbers suggest that the only way Ed will enter Number 10 is with the Nats. Any English voter with a lick of sense should avoid voting Labour on this basis alone.
I'm a labour supporter but I have absolutely no doubt that if it came down to it Milliband would do a deal with the SNP If it meant forming a government. He shouldn't have announced that there will be no coalition.
There was never a possibility of coalition and he should have ruled it out earlier. That doesn't mean that the SNP won't support a Labour minority Government on a vote by vote basis or that such support won't give the SNP some influence.
Does anyone here actually follow opinion polls? There's very little in it at present.
Labour with SNP seemed a very likely coalition.
Depending on what poll you read there is only 2 or 3 points in it either way. My personal opinion is that Labour will win purely down to the Tory diswaiders voting Ukip .
There will be a hung parliament. Outside of Scotland, Labour will do well, but unless there is a big change north of the border and they can hang on to a fair few of their seats there they will not be able to form a government.
There was never a possibility of coalition and he should have ruled it out earlier. That doesn't mean that the SNP won't support a Labour minority Government on a vote by vote basis or that such support won't give the SNP some influence.
The main two parties naturally only want to talk about winning outright; furthermore no party likes to start going down the road of naming who they would and wouldn't form a coalition with.
There will be a hung parliament. Outside of Scotland, Labour will do well, but unless there is a big change north of the border and they can hang on to a fair few of their seats there they will not be able to form a government.
My take.
A 'normal' performance in Scotland for Labour would see them as the biggest party in Westminster but short of an overall majority. If the SNP perform as per the current opinion polls then the Tories will be the largest party but again without an overall majority.
Ed had to say what he did today to give a message to potential SNP voters that not voting for Labour would open the door to the Tories. If that were to happen (and assuming the Lib Dems are wiped out, then I can see the Tories trying to form a minority government - but I doubt that would last more than 12 months.
There will be a hung parliament. Outside of Scotland, Labour will do well, but unless there is a big change north of the border and they can hang on to a fair few of their seats there they will not be able to form a government.
My take.
A 'normal' performance in Scotland for Labour would see them as the biggest party in Westminster but short of an overall majority. If the SNP perform as per the current opinion polls then the Tories will be the largest party but again without an overall majority.
Ed had to say what he did today to give a message to potential SNP voters that not voting for Labour would open the door to the Tories. If that were to happen (and assuming the Lib Dems are wiped out, then I can see the Tories trying to form a minority government - but I doubt that would last more than 12 months.
I think your reading is close to mine.
The SNP have already ruled out supporting a Tory government (including supply and confidence). A Tory minority government would then likely depend on the support of (as a minimum) UKIP, Plaid Cymru AND some Northern Irish parties, all of whom would be unstable and expensive supporters. It would probably need some of the surviving Lib Dems from Scotland and the southwest to prevent the government being in constant crisis. The Lib Dems would prefer to go into government with Labour anyway, so I can't see a Tory led government unless their support increases outside the areas where they are very strong (which skews national polls).
When I read the headline, I immediately assumed the message was to potential SNP voters. The SNP have hugely benefitted from being the only campaigners for a Yes vote, and they now expect to pick up a large number of Labour seats in Scotland. In Scotland, the SNP's refusal to support the Tories has been described as "vote SNP, get Labour", and I think Miliband is trying to say to Scottish voters that if they want a representative in government, they should vote Labour. If that's how it's read in Scotland, then the SNP are a bit snookered. I thought it was tactically strange for them to rule out supporting the Tories anyway.
If it's not how it's read in Scotland, Labour run the risk of wiping themselves out of traditional heartlands in Scotland.
If it comes down to it, Labour will accept a supply and confidence deal as a minimum. The only other option would surely be to go back for another election immediately, which everyone would complain about.
tl;dr - I think this announcement is about Scotland, not England.
I'm a labour supporter but I have absolutely no doubt that if it came down to it Milliband would do a deal with the SNP If it meant forming a government. He shouldn't have announced that there will be no coalition.
This is why I hate politics so much, Millipead supports a UK but would probably do a deal with a party who wants to get out of the UK and has only Scotland's interest at heart.
Does anyone here actually follow opinion polls? There's very little in it at present.
Labour with SNP seemed a very likely coalition.
Depending on what poll you read there is only 2 or 3 points in it either way. My personal opinion is that Labour will win purely down to the Tory diswaiders voting Ukip .
Unfortunatly for you, the votes for UKIP have not just come from the Tories.
Does anyone here actually follow opinion polls? There's very little in it at present.
Labour with SNP seemed a very likely coalition.
Depending on what poll you read there is only 2 or 3 points in it either way. My personal opinion is that Labour will win purely down to the Tory diswaiders voting Ukip .
Unfortunatly for you, the votes for UKIP have not just come from the Tories.
There may be a few confused Labour supporters and deserting Liberals but most will have voted conservative if Ukip didn't exist.
Does anyone here actually follow opinion polls? There's very little in it at present.
Labour with SNP seemed a very likely coalition.
Depending on what poll you read there is only 2 or 3 points in it either way. My personal opinion is that Labour will win purely down to the Tory diswaiders voting Ukip .
Unfortunatly for you, the votes for UKIP have not just come from the Tories.
There may be a few confused Labour supporters and deserting Liberals but most will have voted conservative if Ukip didn't exist.
Based on my evidence, I can testify that is not the case.
You should hear what the Labour supporters in the north have to say to those who consider voting for UKIP, they say 'vote UKIP get Tory in'
Does anyone here actually follow opinion polls? There's very little in it at present.
Labour with SNP seemed a very likely coalition.
Depending on what poll you read there is only 2 or 3 points in it either way. My personal opinion is that Labour will win purely down to the Tory diswaiders voting Ukip .
Unfortunatly for you, the votes for UKIP have not just come from the Tories.
There may be a few confused Labour supporters and deserting Liberals but most will have voted conservative if Ukip didn't exist.
Based on my evidence, I can testify that is not the case.
You should hear what the Labour supporters in the north have to say to those who consider voting for UKIP, they say 'vote UKIP get Tory in'
General Election 2010: Tories rule out Lib Dem alliance
The Conservative leader is increasingly confident of winning an overall majority.
Mr Cameron believes the momentum is with his party after his confident performance in last week’s final leaders’ debate, Gordon Brown’s “bigoted woman” gaffe and a series of polls showing a fall in Lib Dem support.
Even if he fails to secure an outright majority, it is understood Mr Cameron is preparing to “go it alone” and form a minority government. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen’s Speech and Budget passed. Last night, the Conservative leader said that, with three days before polling day, the momentum was now with him.
Lib-Dem wipeout. SNP clean sweep. Ukip moderate gains. Ed Milliband unelectable, so I can see the Tories making gains but no natural coalition left for them (can't see Ukip getting enough seats). Recipe for a right mess.
There are so many variables it is difficult to call . The political landscape is very diverse at the moment and extremely polarised . The first past the post electoral system is not fit for purpose in an era of multi party democracy in my view .
As @Salad and @bobmunro have said if it was not for the SNP curve ball north of the border Labour would probably be the largest party following the election . If the SNP do as well as expected then I think the Tories will have a larger parliamentary grouping although I expect Labour to make gains in England at their expense .
The Lib Dems will suffer badly in the national vote ,but I suspect will still hold 30 seats or so ( down from the mid 50's) . Labour voters in places like Carshalton , Lewes ,Sutton and Twickenham might still vote tactically for a non Tory MP . Symbolically Clegg could lose to Labour in Sheffield Hallam where there is a strong student vote .Conversely if Labour voters do desert the Lib Dems in the sorts of areas mentioned above it will be the Tories who will make the gains. It is now forgotten that it was the Blair landslide of 1997 when the Lib Dems made their biggest breakthrough so many of their MP's rely on a tactical anti Tory vote .
I would be surprised if UKIP won more than at the most 5 or 6 seats .For example I predict Reckless will lose in Rochester . Rather than exclusively against the Tories I think they could make a couple of gains at Labour's expense . The popular and populist MP Austin Mitchell is standing down in Grimsby . The situation in Rotherham could also rebound on Miliband ,I agree with @DiscoCAFC that many Tories may vote tactically for them in seats where Cameron can't win in the north . But despite this I still think they will on balance mainly harm the Conservatives . South Thanet was a Labour seat as recently as 2005 .Could Farage split the vote there and allow the people's party back through the middle ?
The Greens and Respect are likely to retain their seats , but will have no bargaining power .
The biggest power brokers after the election could be the Ulster Unionists . How would they respond in a balance of power log jam ?
General Election 2010: Tories rule out Lib Dem alliance
The Conservative leader is increasingly confident of winning an overall majority.
Mr Cameron believes the momentum is with his party after his confident performance in last week’s final leaders’ debate, Gordon Brown’s “bigoted woman” gaffe and a series of polls showing a fall in Lib Dem support.
Even if he fails to secure an outright majority, it is understood Mr Cameron is preparing to “go it alone” and form a minority government. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen’s Speech and Budget passed. Last night, the Conservative leader said that, with three days before polling day, the momentum was now with him.
Therein lies the answer why the Tories had to do a deal with the Lib Dems. Even with DUP support, the Tories still would have needed ALL the other small parties (SNP, Greens, SDLP, Plaid Cymru) to form a majority. And it would be very difficult to keep all of them happy.
That's why I can't understand how much criticism the Lib Dems get. If they hadn't done some deal with the Tories, it would have forced another election and they would have been wiped out anyway. Maybe they could have done a different deal, or a better one, but I think they had to support a Tory government in some sense.
For the same reason, Labour will do a deal if they have to. Could you imagine the whinging on here if they needed the SNP but refused to form a government and instead forced everyone back to the polls? And I say that as someone who would not vote for Labour at the next election.
The biggest power brokers after the election could be the Ulster Unionists . How would they respond in a balance of power log jam ?
Assuming you mean the Democratic Unionists, they would respond in the same way as they always do - by demanding more public spending in Northern Ireland.
For balance, Sinn Fein also spend their time demanding the same.
Comments
But he did just announce it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31906463
Then probably not.
He shouldn't have announced that there will be no coalition.
Labour with SNP seemed a very likely coalition.
My personal opinion is that Labour will win purely down to the Tory diswaiders voting Ukip .
Outside of Scotland, Labour will do well, but unless there is a big change north of the border and they can hang on to a fair few of their seats there they will not be able to form a government.
A 'normal' performance in Scotland for Labour would see them as the biggest party in Westminster but short of an overall majority. If the SNP perform as per the current opinion polls then the Tories will be the largest party but again without an overall majority.
Ed had to say what he did today to give a message to potential SNP voters that not voting for Labour would open the door to the Tories. If that were to happen (and assuming the Lib Dems are wiped out, then I can see the Tories trying to form a minority government - but I doubt that would last more than 12 months.
The SNP have already ruled out supporting a Tory government (including supply and confidence). A Tory minority government would then likely depend on the support of (as a minimum) UKIP, Plaid Cymru AND some Northern Irish parties, all of whom would be unstable and expensive supporters. It would probably need some of the surviving Lib Dems from Scotland and the southwest to prevent the government being in constant crisis. The Lib Dems would prefer to go into government with Labour anyway, so I can't see a Tory led government unless their support increases outside the areas where they are very strong (which skews national polls).
When I read the headline, I immediately assumed the message was to potential SNP voters. The SNP have hugely benefitted from being the only campaigners for a Yes vote, and they now expect to pick up a large number of Labour seats in Scotland. In Scotland, the SNP's refusal to support the Tories has been described as "vote SNP, get Labour", and I think Miliband is trying to say to Scottish voters that if they want a representative in government, they should vote Labour. If that's how it's read in Scotland, then the SNP are a bit snookered. I thought it was tactically strange for them to rule out supporting the Tories anyway.
If it's not how it's read in Scotland, Labour run the risk of wiping themselves out of traditional heartlands in Scotland.
If it comes down to it, Labour will accept a supply and confidence deal as a minimum. The only other option would surely be to go back for another election immediately, which everyone would complain about.
tl;dr - I think this announcement is about Scotland, not England.
You should hear what the Labour supporters in the north have to say to those who consider voting for UKIP, they say 'vote UKIP get Tory in'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7670867/General-Election-2010-Tories-rule-out-Lib-Dem-alliance.html
General Election 2010: Tories rule out Lib Dem alliance
The Conservative leader is increasingly confident of winning an overall majority.
Mr Cameron believes the momentum is with his party after his confident performance in last week’s final leaders’ debate, Gordon Brown’s “bigoted woman” gaffe and a series of polls showing a fall in Lib Dem support.
Even if he fails to secure an outright majority, it is understood Mr Cameron is preparing to “go it alone” and form a minority government. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen’s Speech and Budget passed. Last night, the Conservative leader said that, with three days before polling day, the momentum was now with him.
As @Salad and @bobmunro have said if it was not for the SNP curve ball north of the border Labour would probably be the largest party following the election . If the SNP do as well as expected then I think the Tories will have a larger parliamentary grouping although I expect Labour to make gains in England at their expense .
The Lib Dems will suffer badly in the national vote ,but I suspect will still hold 30 seats or so ( down from the mid 50's) . Labour voters in places like Carshalton , Lewes ,Sutton and Twickenham might still vote tactically for a non Tory MP . Symbolically Clegg could lose to Labour in Sheffield Hallam where there is a strong student vote .Conversely if Labour voters do desert the Lib Dems in the sorts of areas mentioned above it will be the Tories who will make the gains. It is now forgotten that it was the Blair landslide of 1997 when the Lib Dems made their biggest breakthrough so many of their MP's rely on a tactical anti Tory vote .
I would be surprised if UKIP won more than at the most 5 or 6 seats .For example I predict Reckless will lose in Rochester . Rather than exclusively against the Tories I think they could make a couple of gains at Labour's expense . The popular and populist MP Austin Mitchell is standing down in Grimsby . The situation in Rotherham could also rebound on Miliband ,I agree with @DiscoCAFC that many Tories may vote tactically for them in seats where Cameron can't win in the north . But despite this I still think they will on balance mainly harm the Conservatives . South Thanet was a Labour seat as recently as 2005 .Could Farage split the vote there and allow the people's party back through the middle ?
The Greens and Respect are likely to retain their seats , but will have no bargaining power .
The biggest power brokers after the election could be the Ulster Unionists . How would they respond in a balance of power log jam ?
That's why I can't understand how much criticism the Lib Dems get. If they hadn't done some deal with the Tories, it would have forced another election and they would have been wiped out anyway. Maybe they could have done a different deal, or a better one, but I think they had to support a Tory government in some sense.
For the same reason, Labour will do a deal if they have to. Could you imagine the whinging on here if they needed the SNP but refused to form a government and instead forced everyone back to the polls? And I say that as someone who would not vote for Labour at the next election.
For balance, Sinn Fein also spend their time demanding the same.