To be run on Sunday. There will be others nearer the time but, with Hobbs confirming his intended participation, my #1 selection based on the stats is WOODFORD COUNTY (20/1).
What a welcoming change to recent threads on here. Good luck peanuts. What time Sunday?
Cheers Robbo. 2.35pm. I'll probably wait to get the 5th e/w place before making my investment and he needs a few to come out at decs to be sure of a run. At the weights, he is the only runner that ticks all the boxes of two alternative WN models that I use. He was going nicely enough in it last year until the home straight but, if I recall Hobbs' comments correctly, he'd ripped off a shoe (not officially recorded).
To be run on Sunday. There will be others nearer the time but, with Hobbs confirming his intended participation, my #1 selection based on the stats is WOODFORD COUNTY (20/1).
A little morsel for your Chepstow ruminations: Much is made by trend followers of the success in the WN of 6~8 year olds and youth is indeed a strong factor - even 2 of the 3 most recent runners-up that were officially 9 year-olds (Giles Cross in the 2010 and T43 in the 2012 renewals) were in effect 8 year-olds as their WNs were both run in January due to the weather (all horses turn a year older on 1 Jan). However, when it comes to those younger than 7, there is a big qualification which is rarely mentioned. Since 1997, there have been 2 6y-o winners of the WN and 7 placed 2nd~4th (of which 3 finished <4L of the winner). All 9 have one notable thing in common: all were French bred (French bred NH horses are renowned for their early maturation). There are two 6 y-os likely to run in this year's WN: Cogry (9/1) and Red Devil Lads (16/1) - both are fine prospects but neither are French bred.
I am in a hotel right next to the Bristol-Chepstow suspension bridge .. it's been raining pretty much non stop since Thursday and it looks as though there is a lot more ready to fall down, although the forecast today is cloudy with sunny spells and pretty warm for the time of year
Have just found the following trends for the Welsh National which are quite amazing in the last 18 runnings all 18 winners have been or achieved the following Top 6 finish last time out Aged 9 or younger Carrying 11.6 or less in weight Last ran 16-60 days ago Price was 40/1 or under
WOODFORD COUNTY (20/1) still my nap, as the only runner to have top rating according to both models I'm using this year, but he needs 5 to come out to get a run. There will be others to add to the slip (preference depending on whether there is a weight rise), hopefully a nicely-priced e/w lightweight if there are enough defections.
Have just found the following trends for the Welsh National which are quite amazing in the last 18 runnings all 18 winners have been or achieved the following Top 6 finish last time out Aged 9 or younger Carrying 11.6 or less in weight Last ran 16-60 days ago Price was 40/1 or under
Does that even eliminate half the field this year mate?
To be honest I haven't even looked at the entries for the race just got e mailed them trends this morning from someone who only follows trends and stats for races and trainers
QUOTE Hobbs believes his recent Exeter winner Woodford County might be the pick of his three intended runners. Woodford County is 25th in the weights for a handicap with a maximum field of 20, but with Alan King on Wednesday ruling out the sponsor’s 8-1 co-favourite Midnight Prayer and Irish challenger Vics Canvas already scratched he will be unlucky if he fails to make the cut.
Hobbs, who also has Bertie Boru and Return Spring in the race, said: “The plan is to run all of them if it’s on, but Woodford County, who will be ridden again by Ciaran Gethings, is most likely to be favoured by the conditions, as he stays very well and the long, galloping straight should suit him. He’s a couple of pounds well in too, with just a 4lb penalty for Exeter." UNQUOTE
Touch and go whether the race will go ahead. Fingers crossed. More selections from my model(s) when the weights are finalised.
Have just found the following trends for the Welsh National which are quite amazing in the last 18 runnings all 18 winners have been or achieved the following Top 6 finish last time out Aged 9 or younger Carrying 11.6 or less in weight Last ran 16-60 days ago Price was 40/1 or under
As with the GN, one's got to be a little careful with winners' only stats Killer, although they are the sole basis for many trend following models.
Consider this before eliminating those with 11.07+.
Since 2007, 13 of the 150 total WN runners carried 11.07+ (8.7% of the fields): • Four of them finished 2nd~4th (all less than 10 lengths of the winner). That is, they filled 12.5% of the 32 (1st~4th) places. Putting the same stat another way, 31% of runners with 11.07+ filled the top 21% of all finishing positions. Albeit not a massive sample, that is a clear over-representation. • Ah yes, but we’re looking for the winner, not just a place. OK, but two of them (Halcon Genelardais in 2007 and Tidal Bay in 2012, both top-weight with 11.12) failed to win by less than 1 length. That, of course, is nothing in a 30 furlong steeplechase in the mud.
This is why, like my GN model, my original Welsh National model takes into account the stats of all those finishing <4L of all winners since 1989 and is a ranking, rather than an elimination-based system. The problem is that, in order to rate the runners, it relies both on quantitative and a number of qualitative factors (e.g. what quality of staying chase has a runner with > 11.06 and, separately, >10.09 won or very nearly won). The plain truth is that I haven't found consistency with this model yet - it hasn't picked the winner since Monbeg Dude 3 years ago and hasn't made a profit in either of last 2 years, when it was outperformed by Winner-only models.
Hence, this year, I am triangulating between 2 models (the original and a second, Winner-only) to try to find common ground. We shall see.
Edit - it's moot for this year now. With a 7lb claimer now booked to ride Black Thunder and Vics Canvas a non-runner, joint top weights will carry 11-05.
With Black Thunder's owner confirming he will run (with a 7lb claimer he'll be joint top-weight with Shotgun Paddy on 11.05), barring a mishap overnight, that will leave the weights unaltered and so, while the cut off remains uncertain (we know that Vics Canvas and Midnight Prayer are definitely scratched), I've added a second selection to my slip, which now reads:
WOODFORD COUNTY 9-10-03 (20/1) (needs 3 more to come out to get a run) and FIREBIRD FLYER 9-10-07 (25/1), both each way.
More after tomorrow's declarations. It's unlikely but I'm hoping there will be a 100/1 shot to add as the 3rd selection.
Peanuts just went through them trends I posted the other day and 14 horses are left and your two are in that 14.Good luck with your two,I will have a proper look in the morning
Have just found another two trends about the going. When the going has been heavy which no doubt it will be tomorrow in 45 horses not one has won carrying 11stone or more and only 9 have finished place and if you wanted to stretch to this stat in the last 10 run on heavy going 9 have been won by horses carrying 10st 8lbs or less.If you added the 9/10 stat to the above ones I found the other day you are left with the following horses Firebird Flyer (25/1) Bertie Boru (20/1) Return Spring (16/1) Saroque (25/1) Tour Des Champs (12/1) Woodford County (20/1) I fully agree with your comments about being careful with the stats Peanuts even though I don't yet use them myself in my betting I find them interesting especially when the bloke i know uses them solely for his betting and explains them all. Peanuts I hope you find the consistency with your models you use as I work out many systems so know exactly where you are coming from.Really enjoy reading your thoughts and theories all good stuff
Scratched at this morning's decs: Theatre Guide, Wyck Hill, Folsom Blue, Audacious Plan, Rigadin De Beauchene, Lovcen (in addition to Vics Canvas and Midnight Prayer)
Scratched at this morning's decs: Theatre Guide, Wyck Hill, Folsom Blue, Audacious Plan, Rigadin De Beauchene, Lovcen (in addition to Vics Canvas and Midnight Prayer)
That's good I backed it for the original date of the race.
Ok, lumped £12.50 each way on both; got 28-1 on FF and 16-1 on WC with Skybet which earns me a £10 free bet for staking £50 in total. FF has dropped to 22-1 on Skybet. Good luck all.
Just to mention a few other WN runners rated as contenders by one or other of my models.
My original model (takes account of stats of winners and “near-misses” [<4L] and employs both quantitative and qualitative rating factors) ranks them as follows (card order where equal ratings): 1. FIREBIRD FLYER, WOODFORD COUNTY 2. SHOTGUN PADDY, CHASE THE SPUD 3. BENVOLIO, BOB FORD, MOUNTAINOUS, SAROQUE, TOUR DES CHAMPS
My secondary model (winners’ stats only, predominantly quantitative factors): 1. WOODFORD COUNTY 2. BOB FORD, FIREBIRD FLYER, TOUR DES CHAMPS 3. UPSWING, COGRY, RED DEVIL LADS, ALLEZ VIC, FOUROFAKIND, CHASE THE SPUD
With WC and FF backed at 20s and 28s respectively and now with 5 e/w places on offer from a few bookies, I’m considering adding a final selection. It's a great shame that RUSSE BLANC missed the cut by one - he was rated joint #1 and joint #2 respectively by the models (same as Firebird Flyer) and was 100/1 this morning. C'est la vie.
Cross-referencing the 2 models, I'd have to conclude that the biggest threats to WC and FF and, therefore, the best candidates to consider as a 3rd selection are:
SHOTGUN PADDY (12/1) BOB FORD (16/1) TOUR DES CHAMPS (14/1) CHASE THE SPUD (40/1)
Here’s where subjective considerations come into play. I’ll pass on SHOTGUN PADDY and TOUR DES CHAMPS. Both are too short IMO, having PU’d in their previous WNs. Both could run huge races but since at least 1989 only Dream Alliance (2009) has won (or come close to winning) the WN at the second attempt with an earlier PU to its name. Also in TDC’s case, this will be his second run after a long lay-off and, though he won the 3m WN Trial well in December, is vulnerable to the notorious “bounce”. That leaves me with BOB FORD and CHASE THE SPUD. BOB FORD has boundless stamina, loves bottomless ground (won a gruelling, somewhat farcical 3.5m West Wales National in Ffos Las’s mud last year) and has won twice over Chepstow’s fences. He could run a massive race. However, he runs either hot or cold (PP1P120P1PPP1) and, more to the point, the “cold” runs seem to be in large fields. That West Wales National win was against 9 rivals (the largest field in which he’s had success in 17 chases and 3 hurdle races under Rules) but only 2 were still running 4 fences out and the runner-up refused at the last before re-starting. He is yet to complete in 4 chases at 3m+ (3 on his preferred soft/heavy ground) with a field size greater than 10 – he faces 19 rivals tomorrow. So, by default, I’ll have a small interest in the last on the card at 40/1 (5 e/w places with BetFred) CHASE THE SPUD – completely unexposed at further than 3m but hey ho.
Comments
Good luck peanuts.
What time Sunday?
I'll probably wait to get the 5th e/w place before making my investment and he needs a few to come out at decs to be sure of a run.
At the weights, he is the only runner that ticks all the boxes of two alternative WN models that I use. He was going nicely enough in it last year until the home straight but, if I recall Hobbs' comments correctly, he'd ripped off a shoe (not officially recorded).
Always appreciated
Much is made by trend followers of the success in the WN of 6~8 year olds and youth is indeed a strong factor - even 2 of the 3 most recent runners-up that were officially 9 year-olds (Giles Cross in the 2010 and T43 in the 2012 renewals) were in effect 8 year-olds as their WNs were both run in January due to the weather (all horses turn a year older on 1 Jan).
However, when it comes to those younger than 7, there is a big qualification which is rarely mentioned.
Since 1997, there have been 2 6y-o winners of the WN and 7 placed 2nd~4th (of which 3 finished <4L of the winner).
All 9 have one notable thing in common: all were French bred (French bred NH horses are renowned for their early maturation).
There are two 6 y-os likely to run in this year's WN: Cogry (9/1) and Red Devil Lads (16/1) - both are fine prospects but neither are French bred.
Top 6 finish last time out
Aged 9 or younger
Carrying 11.6 or less in weight
Last ran 16-60 days ago
Price was 40/1 or under
There will be others to add to the slip (preference depending on whether there is a weight rise), hopefully a nicely-priced e/w lightweight if there are enough defections.
Does that even eliminate half the field this year mate?
QUOTE
Hobbs believes his recent Exeter winner Woodford County might be the pick of his three intended runners. Woodford County is 25th in the weights for a handicap with a maximum field of 20, but with Alan King on Wednesday ruling out the sponsor’s 8-1 co-favourite Midnight Prayer and Irish challenger Vics Canvas already scratched he will be unlucky if he fails to make the cut.
Hobbs, who also has Bertie Boru and Return Spring in the race, said: “The plan is to run all of them if it’s on, but Woodford County, who will be ridden again by Ciaran Gethings, is most likely to be favoured by the conditions, as he stays very well and the long, galloping straight should suit him. He’s a couple of pounds well in too, with just a 4lb penalty for Exeter."
UNQUOTE
Touch and go whether the race will go ahead. Fingers crossed.
More selections from my model(s) when the weights are finalised.
Consider this before eliminating those with 11.07+.
Since 2007, 13 of the 150 total WN runners carried 11.07+ (8.7% of the fields):
• Four of them finished 2nd~4th (all less than 10 lengths of the winner). That is, they filled 12.5% of the 32 (1st~4th) places. Putting the same stat another way, 31% of runners with 11.07+ filled the top 21% of all finishing positions. Albeit not a massive sample, that is a clear over-representation.
• Ah yes, but we’re looking for the winner, not just a place. OK, but two of them (Halcon Genelardais in 2007 and Tidal Bay in 2012, both top-weight with 11.12) failed to win by less than 1 length. That, of course, is nothing in a 30 furlong steeplechase in the mud.
This is why, like my GN model, my original Welsh National model takes into account the stats of all those finishing <4L of all winners since 1989 and is a ranking, rather than an elimination-based system. The problem is that, in order to rate the runners, it relies both on quantitative and a number of qualitative factors (e.g. what quality of staying chase has a runner with > 11.06 and, separately, >10.09 won or very nearly won). The plain truth is that I haven't found consistency with this model yet - it hasn't picked the winner since Monbeg Dude 3 years ago and hasn't made a profit in either of last 2 years, when it was outperformed by Winner-only models.
Hence, this year, I am triangulating between 2 models (the original and a second, Winner-only) to try to find common ground. We shall see.
Edit - it's moot for this year now. With a 7lb claimer now booked to ride Black Thunder and Vics Canvas a non-runner, joint top weights will carry 11-05.
WOODFORD COUNTY 9-10-03 (20/1) (needs 3 more to come out to get a run) and
FIREBIRD FLYER 9-10-07 (25/1), both each way.
More after tomorrow's declarations. It's unlikely but I'm hoping there will be a 100/1 shot to add as the 3rd selection.
When the going has been heavy which no doubt it will be tomorrow in 45 horses not one has won carrying 11stone or more and only 9 have finished place and if you wanted to stretch to this stat in the last 10 run on heavy going 9 have been won by horses carrying 10st 8lbs or less.If you added the 9/10 stat to the above ones I found the other day you are left with the following horses
Firebird Flyer (25/1)
Bertie Boru (20/1)
Return Spring (16/1)
Saroque (25/1)
Tour Des Champs (12/1)
Woodford County (20/1)
I fully agree with your comments about being careful with the stats Peanuts even though I don't yet use them myself in my betting I find them interesting especially when the bloke i know uses them solely for his betting and explains them all.
Peanuts I hope you find the consistency with your models you use as I work out many systems so know exactly where you are coming from.Really enjoy reading your thoughts and theories all good stuff
Woodford County gets a run. Weights unchanged.
Scratched at this morning's decs: Theatre Guide, Wyck Hill, Folsom Blue, Audacious Plan, Rigadin De Beauchene, Lovcen (in addition to Vics Canvas and Midnight Prayer)
Firebird Flyer 28s with SkyBet
My original model (takes account of stats of winners and “near-misses” [<4L] and employs both quantitative and qualitative rating factors) ranks them as follows (card order where equal ratings):
1. FIREBIRD FLYER, WOODFORD COUNTY
2. SHOTGUN PADDY, CHASE THE SPUD
3. BENVOLIO, BOB FORD, MOUNTAINOUS, SAROQUE, TOUR DES CHAMPS
My secondary model (winners’ stats only, predominantly quantitative factors):
1. WOODFORD COUNTY
2. BOB FORD, FIREBIRD FLYER, TOUR DES CHAMPS
3. UPSWING, COGRY, RED DEVIL LADS, ALLEZ VIC, FOUROFAKIND, CHASE THE SPUD
With WC and FF backed at 20s and 28s respectively and now with 5 e/w places on offer from a few bookies, I’m considering adding a final selection. It's a great shame that RUSSE BLANC missed the cut by one - he was rated joint #1 and joint #2 respectively by the models (same as Firebird Flyer) and was 100/1 this morning. C'est la vie.
Cross-referencing the 2 models, I'd have to conclude that the biggest threats to WC and FF and, therefore, the best candidates to consider as a 3rd selection are:
SHOTGUN PADDY (12/1)
BOB FORD (16/1)
TOUR DES CHAMPS (14/1)
CHASE THE SPUD (40/1)
Here’s where subjective considerations come into play.
I’ll pass on SHOTGUN PADDY and TOUR DES CHAMPS. Both are too short IMO, having PU’d in their previous WNs. Both could run huge races but since at least 1989 only Dream Alliance (2009) has won (or come close to winning) the WN at the second attempt with an earlier PU to its name. Also in TDC’s case, this will be his second run after a long lay-off and, though he won the 3m WN Trial well in December, is vulnerable to the notorious “bounce”.
That leaves me with BOB FORD and CHASE THE SPUD.
BOB FORD has boundless stamina, loves bottomless ground (won a gruelling, somewhat farcical 3.5m West Wales National in Ffos Las’s mud last year) and has won twice over Chepstow’s fences. He could run a massive race. However, he runs either hot or cold (PP1P120P1PPP1) and, more to the point, the “cold” runs seem to be in large fields. That West Wales National win was against 9 rivals (the largest field in which he’s had success in 17 chases and 3 hurdle races under Rules) but only 2 were still running 4 fences out and the runner-up refused at the last before re-starting. He is yet to complete in 4 chases at 3m+ (3 on his preferred soft/heavy ground) with a field size greater than 10 – he faces 19 rivals tomorrow.
So, by default, I’ll have a small interest in the last on the card at 40/1 (5 e/w places with BetFred) CHASE THE SPUD – completely unexposed at further than 3m but hey ho.