Had the two e/w in the top five. Only had a very little bet on them as not working at the mo, has paid for a curry and a couple of vey much needed beers after today's result.
Cheers red. Much appreciated. Enjoy the ruby. Hopefully we'll go one better at Aintree. All the best.
Peanuts: I took a punt on Mountainous to win the GN @40-1 e/w after that run. Do you think that was a good decision?
Looks a decent bet to me Chief. Surprised he's as long as 40s, suggesting the received wisdom is that he must have heavy ground. It's obvious why, looking at his career, but he was in a nice rhythm and looking good with the leaders when departing (bit of a tame fall) at the 9th in the 2014 GN (Good to Soft officially). I can't recall his GN stats off the top of my head but I remember the model fancied he'd handle decent ground better than was generally thought. I think he had some form somewhere (PtP maybe) in a respectable time. Especially with age, no doubt he wouldn't want it quick and they probably wouldn't run him if it looked like being so but everyone thought the ground would be too quick for Monbeg Dude last year and he came home a very competitive 3rd. Who knows what the ground will be like in April but obviously it couldn't be any wetter right now and I wouldn't rule out having a nibble of that myself. Good luck.
We were but I got told off by Len's Little Girl for initially going 4 rather than 5 places! We did manage to put a smaller amount on 5 places too luckily.
Put wc on in ladbrookes shop. They indicated 5 places on line. Would this be the same for a walk in bet?
Not always. Coral fucked me over with the same thing and they sponsored the race!!
Great, Done mine in coral shop on WC.
Didn't even consider they would differ on line to walk in on the places.
Last time I use them I think.
I wouldn't expect anything less from Coral. All front and no substance. I took them to IBAS and they took a total of six months to respond to my complaint.
Closed my account immediately. Plenty of other bookmakers who will take my money willingly!
The first 5 home were aged 11/9/9/9/9 but the sweet spot for the trends is 6~8 y-o winners. BUT we were only 9 days after all horses turn a year older as in the WNs of Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 - the only other WNs since 2003 when a winner or runner-up has been older than 8. Winner aside (special factors), 2nd~5th would have been aged 8 had the race been run as originally scheduled. Likewise, the failure of the fancied “7 year olds” (Cogry and Red Devil lads) confirms that 6 year olds (which is effectively what they were) that are not French-bred (French breds are typically early maturers) have a terrible record.
WINNERS ONLY vs WINNERS & NEAR-MISSERS MODELS
Conventional "winner-only" trend models didn't do well - winner too old and 3rd too much weight - and my own version used as a cross-reference didn't help my final selections but only a minor tweak has been needed to my original (winners & <4L places) model, which had predicted thus:
1. FIREBIRD FLYER, WOODFORD COUNTY 2. SHOTGUN PADDY, CHASE THE SPUD 3. BENVOLIO, BOB FORD, MOUNTAINOUS, SAROQUE, TOUR DES CHAMPS
All the front 5 + late faller Bob Ford rated in these top 9 and FF closing down the winner fast at the line. Model's had the necessary two minor tweaks (Mountainous age penalty removed because of low weight and previous WN win at higher OR / WC penalised for 5lb claiming jockey - only one claimer [Brian Crowley -3lbs on Jocks Cross in 2000] has won or been a near-misser in WN - should have spotted that beforehand). Ready to roll once again in December - one better next time
Cheers Peanuts. Portrait King didn't quite make it but Paddy paid out on Firebird and Woodford so I finished £50 up. That said, I probably drank it before kick off on Saturday. Pretty sure Roger Johnson was in the pub from 10am with me!!!!
Nice one TelMc. PK ran well for a long way and got a bit interferred with. He and Chase The Spud both got disadvantaged early. Doesn't look like he'll be rated high enough to have another crack at the GN but he'll be a bloody good shout in the Eider, if he's OK, now he's back down to his winning mark.
Comments
They indicated 5 places on line.
Would this be the same for a walk in bet?
Thanks again
Sorry we missed the winner but next time hopefully.
Hopefully we'll go one better at Aintree.
All the best.
It's obvious why, looking at his career, but he was in a nice rhythm and looking good with the leaders when departing (bit of a tame fall) at the 9th in the 2014 GN (Good to Soft officially). I can't recall his GN stats off the top of my head but I remember the model fancied he'd handle decent ground better than was generally thought. I think he had some form somewhere (PtP maybe) in a respectable time.
Especially with age, no doubt he wouldn't want it quick and they probably wouldn't run him if it looked like being so but everyone thought the ground would be too quick for Monbeg Dude last year and he came home a very competitive 3rd.
Who knows what the ground will be like in April but obviously it couldn't be any wetter right now and I wouldn't rule out having a nibble of that myself.
Good luck.
Didn't even consider they would differ on line to walk in on the places.
Last time I use them I think.
Closed my account immediately. Plenty of other bookmakers who will take my money willingly!
ADJUSTMENT OF AGE FOR POSTPONEMENT
The first 5 home were aged 11/9/9/9/9 but the sweet spot for the trends is 6~8 y-o winners. BUT we were only 9 days after all horses turn a year older as in the WNs of Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 - the only other WNs since 2003 when a winner or runner-up has been older than 8.
Winner aside (special factors), 2nd~5th would have been aged 8 had the race been run as originally scheduled.
Likewise, the failure of the fancied “7 year olds” (Cogry and Red Devil lads) confirms that 6 year olds (which is effectively what they were) that are not French-bred (French breds are typically early maturers) have a terrible record.
WINNERS ONLY vs WINNERS & NEAR-MISSERS MODELS
Conventional "winner-only" trend models didn't do well - winner too old and 3rd too much weight - and my own version used as a cross-reference didn't help my final selections but only a minor tweak has been needed to my original (winners & <4L places) model, which had predicted thus:
1. FIREBIRD FLYER, WOODFORD COUNTY
2. SHOTGUN PADDY, CHASE THE SPUD
3. BENVOLIO, BOB FORD, MOUNTAINOUS, SAROQUE, TOUR DES CHAMPS
All the front 5 + late faller Bob Ford rated in these top 9 and FF closing down the winner fast at the line.
Model's had the necessary two minor tweaks (Mountainous age penalty removed because of low weight and previous WN win at higher OR / WC penalised for 5lb claiming jockey - only one claimer [Brian Crowley -3lbs on Jocks Cross in 2000] has won or been a near-misser in WN - should have spotted that beforehand).
Ready to roll once again in December - one better next time
Doesn't look like he'll be rated high enough to have another crack at the GN but he'll be a bloody good shout in the Eider, if he's OK, now he's back down to his winning mark.
Think it’s on the grand national 2019 thread.