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Will Trump become President?

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  • edited July 2016
    Dave2l said:

    How the hell did Clinton get voted in for the democrats?

    Surely anyone else would have been better, then the states would be in a nice democratic safe pair of hands.

    It's forced normal people to actually seriously consider voting for trump.

    Because her and her husband have been the faces of the party for most of the last 25 years. In that time they've campaigned religiously for Democratic candidates and fundraised disgusting amounts of money for the party. This is money that then goes to candidates "lower down the ticket." Between that and the fact that they actively campaigned for many Dems currently in office, a lot of people "owe them," and in general, there is a feeling that the party "owes" Hilary given she was lined up for 2008 and lost.

    From the perspective of the Democratic party machine, it makes a lot of sense. They bring in money and push forward a central right to central left agenda. They still do hold a lot of sway with a lot of the electorate and having such a strong "party candidate" is presumed to help Dems up and down the ticket in November (including state and local races). Contrast that with Trump, and he could very well keep rank and file Republicans away from the polls. The effect might not be felt as strongly at the national level, but could have ripple effects at state and local levels.

    I don't agree with Hilary Clinton on much. She is a hawk. Her results as Secretary of State were mixed at best, and I would say poor when held up against the current Secretary of State, John Kerry. She believes in the continuation/expansion of privatized medicine, and her tax rates would be considered conservative in many other countries, and up until about 30 years ago in the States.
  • Has Clinton been convicted of any crime or admitted to any crime?
  • Has just been officially confirmed as the nominated republican candidate. Game on!
  • 1StevieG said:

    Has just been officially confirmed as the nominated republican candidate. Game on!

    Presumably the Republicans will now unite to take on Hillary.
  • limeygent said:

    1StevieG said:

    Has just been officially confirmed as the nominated republican candidate. Game on!

    Presumably the Republicans will now unite to take on Hillary.
    I really doubt that, I think some will be looking at Gary Johnson, but a lot of moderate or fiscal conservatives will just stay home. The big message from the RNC so far is there is no coherent, applicable message. Trump is all over the place, including left of Hilary on the TPP and NAFTA. It's a shitshow. The DNC won't be much better, but they can at least say roughly "more of the same of the last two years" and that's going to be good enough given the opposition.
  • edited July 2016
    ea

    The election is over already.

    The US electorate has about 14% Latinos, 10% African-American and 7% Asian - and Trump is losing all those groups by around 9:1.

    That means Clinton already has 27-28% of the popular vote in the bag - so Trump has to win an overwhelming majority of white voters to even come close. Oh, and that might be a little tough since he is losing women by 64:36.

    There is a good news for Donald though, he is ahead by 2:1 among poor uneducated white voters - I think that tells you everything you need to know.

    Trump is effectively a right wing version of Corbyn who has led an insurgent movement to take over an established party but whose appeal is far too narrow to play on the national stage.



    Corbyn is an British sanders.. trump is our farage. It's just luckily we have slighlty less racist knobheads than America does
  • Got talking to a 28 year old American from the mid west at Wetherspoons Victoria while having a Kronebourg in transit who said he was the only one of his family who is a democrat.
    He said that a guy like Sanders is called a Communist by most Americans.
    Democrat as well as the Republicans. I thought this was 1950's Thinking
    but the guy said that how the mass of Americans still consider anyone left of the Clintons' as Reds.

    Just seen that Bernie Sanders has said he and his supporters will do a farting Protest at the democratic National convention when Clinton gets sworn in as the candidate.

    Does this mean that Sanders in now Backing Trump ?

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  • http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-gets-convention-bounce-drawing-polls-to-dead-heat/?ex_cid=538fb

    Very important context, candidates always get a bump after their party's convention. Trump is slowly closing on Hilary, but this week's polls shouldn't be read into too much, expect Hilary to get the same bump end of this week/early next.

  • shine166 said:

    ea

    The election is over already.

    The US electorate has about 14% Latinos, 10% African-American and 7% Asian - and Trump is losing all those groups by around 9:1.

    That means Clinton already has 27-28% of the popular vote in the bag - so Trump has to win an overwhelming majority of white voters to even come close. Oh, and that might be a little tough since he is losing women by 64:36.

    There is a good news for Donald though, he is ahead by 2:1 among poor uneducated white voters - I think that tells you everything you need to know.

    Trump is effectively a right wing version of Corbyn who has led an insurgent movement to take over an established party but whose appeal is far too narrow to play on the national stage.



    Corbyn is an British sanders.. trump is our farage. It's just luckily we have slighlty less racist knobheads than America does
    You have the wonderful first past the post system and our parliamentary system to thank for that. Something some of the "progressives" here want to change or get rid.
  • I'm not a huge Michael Moore fan. Agree with him on a fair few things, but find him to be a bit of a clown. This, however, it a very good write up:

    http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
  • SDAddick said:

    I'm not a huge Michael Moore fan. Agree with him on a fair few things, but find him to be a bit of a clown. This, however, it a very good write up:

    http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

    yeah he's a twat but this sort of call against complacency is vital

    trump is fucking terrifying and anyone claiming to support him is an enemy of humanity and a wretch

  • anyone with anything positive to say about that vicious primordial fucker had best scroll through this and then say it again

    https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughTrumpSpam/comments/4teoxl/a_final_response_to_the_tell_me_why_trump_is_a
  • edited July 2016
    Saw a thought-provoking film by Noam Chomsky called Requiem for the American Dream. Worth a look IMHO. A lot of what he says applies equally to the UK.

    Here's him speaking about Trump:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVqO3r3ugVo
  • Good piece by Moore but I still won't believe that America will vote in enough numbers to allow Trump to win.
  • Good piece by Moore but I still won't believe that America will vote in enough numbers to allow Trump to win.

    I really really hope you are correct. The world is in turmoil and I'm no fan of Clinton but she's the better of two options in these turbulent times.

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  • edited July 2016
    Curb_It said:

    Good piece by Moore but I still won't believe that America will vote in enough numbers to allow Trump to win.

    I really really hope you are correct. The world is in turmoil and I'm no fan of Clinton but she's the better of two options in these turbulent times.

    I hope so too but I can see Trump stealing her base by promising a take on the people's quantative easing idea (offering voters direct payments of freshly printed cash). If he does so it would be hard for Hillary to best him as its not something her big business backers would support and it would motivate all sorts of marginalised people to get out and vote.
  • Gordon Bennett
  • seriously, has anybody got a non-insane defence of a prospective trump presidency?
  • Thought I'd get hundreds of "likes" for that post.........
  • limeygent said:
    This is fully expected after a convention. Hillary will get a bounce back following the DNC. It's still closer than many would like, but she'll have a 3-5% lead across the board. Also remember, it's not a head-to-head vote, it's done by state, so overall national polls are misleading.
  • SDAddick said:

    limeygent said:
    This is fully expected after a convention. Hillary will get a bounce back following the DNC. It's still closer than many would like, but she'll have a 3-5% lead across the board. Also remember, it's not a head-to-head vote, it's done by state, so overall national polls are misleading.
    As George Dubya will tell you, the popular vote means nothing. Especially when you can rig Florida. Any idea what the state by state projections are?
  • Yes, he will. I am fairly sure Trump will win he next election.... But I really really hope I am wrong
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